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Forecaster provides real-time weather data to boost extreme weather warnings
The top European weather forecaster announced on Wednesday that it has opened up access to real-time weather data, which will help support early warning systems around the world for extreme weather. Climate change is causing more intense and frequent weather events, such as heatwaves, floods, and storms. Access to high-quality data is essential to understanding and managing the risks. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is backed by 35 countries, mostly European, who collect 800 million observations per day to predict the weather. It also oversees one the largest meteorological archives in the world. The centre's data policy leader said that as part of the regional push by certain European countries to move towards open data, it will provide 16 times more data unrestrictedly than at present, but charge data service fees for users who download large amounts. As the world prepares for the next round in Brazil, in November, developing countries must continue to focus on adapting to extreme climate conditions and providing data to those who are most affected so that they can be better prepared. In this context, the centre announced that it would waive some service fees for early warning forecasting to members of the World Meteorological Organization. It would also look at how AI forecasts can assist developing countries who have less access to national data and processing. "If you have this disruptive technology, there's always the danger that countries that are less well-resourced get left behind," Florian Pappenberger, the director-general-elect for the centre, said. We're aware of the fact that accessing machine-learning forecasts can be difficult in many parts of the world. Reporting by Ali Withers, Editing by Alison Williams
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EU to increase tariffs by 50% on steel imports and reduce steel import quotas
A source familiar with the details said that on Wednesday, the European Commission would propose reducing steel import quotas almost in half and increasing duties on volumes exceeding these levels to 50%. This is in line with tariffs levied by Canada and the United States. These measures will form part of a package that is set to be unveiled officially on October 7th. Stephane Sejourne - the executive vice president of the Commission for industrial strategy - briefed steel association on Wednesday in advance of next week's announcement. The current steel safeguards of the EU will expire next June. The EU and its Western allies try to limit the overcapacity created by Chinese steel factories and other sectors that are subsidized. The EU has already tightened its current steel import quotas to 15% as of April 1. In addition, the Commission is examining market trends in order to determine potential aluminum safeguards and export duties on scrap. Steel was thrust into the spotlight at the beginning of this year, after U.S. president Donald Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from abroad to 50%. After reaching a general agreement on trade with Trump late in July, the EU announced that it would work closely and in an "alliance" with Washington to protect their respective productions from China. The U.S. still charges a 50% export tax on European steel. Maros Sefcovic, EU Trade Commissioner, met U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer earlier this month in Asia to restart the talks. EU sources had previously said that the new safeguards were a starting point for negotiations with Washington. (Reporting and writing by Julia Payne, Inti Landauro, Editing by Benoit van Overstraeten Philip Blenkinsop Jan Harvey).
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Gold hits record price as US Government Shuts Down
Wall Street futures dropped, gold reached a new record high, and the dollar weakened on Wednesday, as the U.S. Government shut down most of its operations. This could delay the release of important jobs data, which may muddy interest rate forecasts. The government shutdown is not expected to end soon, as there's no way out of the funding impasse. Furloughs of 750,000 federal employees at $400 million per day are also likely. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures both fell by about 0.6% on Wednesday. Gold prices rose to $3,895 per ounce in a third consecutive session, reaching a new record. The STOXX pan-continental index rose 0.4%. The FTSE 100 in Britain and the SMI in Switzerland outperformed. Healthcare stocks boosted their performance, as they hoped to avoid high U.S. tariffs on imports following President Donald Trump's agreement with Pfizer regarding prescription drug prices. SLOW DOWN TO Delay Data Investors may give greater weight to the ADP National Employment Report, due later today. Forecasts predict a modest increase of 50,000 jobs in the private sector. Lars Skovgaard is a senior investment strategist with Danske Bank. He said that the shutdown should not have a major impact on the markets. "I wouldn’t rule it out that it could add some jitters, but you shouldn’t be concerned about it. We're not," Skovgaard added. The Federal Reserve is now expected to cut rates by 95% in October. This is up from 90% a day ago. There's also a 75% chance that they will do so again in December. Anthony Saglimbene is the chief market strategist for Ameriprise. He said that if shutdown continues, inflation reports from September could be affected by mid-October. He said that a prolonged period in which the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was not fully operational could impact data collection efforts and the quality of data for other reports. The Nikkei index of Japan fell 0.9% on Wednesday after a 11% increase in the previous quarter. South Korean shares increased by 0.9% to add to their 11.5% gains in the previous quarter. This was after data revealed that its exports had risen at the fastest rate in 14 months during September. Taiwan's stocks gained 0.6%. The island's chief tariff negotiator stated on Wednesday that Taiwan would not accept a deal to have half of all semiconductor production take place in Washington. Hong Kong and all Chinese markets were closed on a public holiday. DOLLAR FALLS The dollar index fell for the fourth consecutive day on foreign exchange markets. It was down last by 0.2% at 97.59. The euro increased by 0.2%, to $1.1756. Sterling was up by 0.2%, at $1.3474. The dollar fell 0.6% to 147.06 Japanese yen after a Bank of Japan report showed that confidence among large Japanese manufacturers had improved in the second quarter. This increased the likelihood of a rate hike this month. The yields on the Treasuries were unchanged in European morning trading. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield in the U.S. was unchanged at 4.156% after rising 1 basis point on Tuesday. After two days of declines, oil prices were stable as investors weighed the possibility of OPEC+ plans to increase output next month with the shrinking U.S. inventories. U.S. crude fell about 0.1% to $62.28 per barrel. Brent, however, was only 0.1% lower.
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EUROPE GAS-Prices rangebound amid strong supply, cooler weather
The Dutch and British wholesale prices of gas continued to trade within a narrow band on Wednesday morning as the demand for gas for electricity declined while heating demand increased due to the cooler weather. LSEG data shows that the benchmark Dutch front-month contract was 31.30 euros per Megawatt Hour (MWh) or $10.78/mmBtu at 0859 GMT. This is a decrease of 0.08 Euro. The Dutch December contract fell by 0.37 euros to 31.55 Euro/MWh. The British November gas prices was lower by 0.65 pence, at 80.00 pence a therm. In a daily note, LSEG analyst Ulrich Weber stated that the demand for heating in local distribution zones (LDZs) is expected to increase by 191 gigawatt hours per day, as temperatures will remain below normal. He added, "On the contrary, we see a similar decline from non-LDZ sources of power, mainly gas, as wind energy generation is improving slightly." LSEG data revealed that the non-LDZ forecast was down 171 GWh/d to 2438 GWh/d for the day ahead. Elexon data shows that the peak wind power forecast for Britain is 11.13 gigawatts (GW) on Wednesday, rising to 19.15 GW by Thursday. After the completion of work on the Troll gas field and the end of outages at Njord's gas platform, total Norwegian exports rose by 34 mcm/day to 318 mcm/day. Sergei Tsivilev, Russian Energy Minister, said that his country intends to increase LNG exports from its Arctic LNG 2 and Sakhalin 2 project to China. Analysts from Engie's EnergyScan have said that it could help to keep European gas prices down. The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets was down by 0.95 euros at 74.77 euro per metric ton.
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Gulf markets are mixed early in the trading as US shutdown raises concern
The major Gulf stock markets opened mixed on Wednesday as the U.S. shutdown caused concern about the delayed release of vital jobs data and future interest rate trends. Deep partisan divides between Congress and the White House prevented them from reaching an agreement on funding. This could have led to a long, painful standoff, which could result in the loss of thousands federal jobs. The shutdown may delay the release key economic data such as the non-farm payrolls reports due on Friday. The U.S. monetary policy changes have a major impact on Gulf markets where the majority of currencies are pegged with the dollar. Saudi Arabian Mining Company gained 1.1% and the benchmark index in Saudi Arabia increased by 0.1%. ADNOC Distribution, which traded ex-dividend, was responsible for a 2.9% drop in the Abu Dhabi index. After two days of declines, oil prices - a key catalyst for Gulf financial markets – have stabilized as investors weigh OPEC+'s plans for a higher output next month against the impact of a U.S. Government shutdown on economic activity and fuel consumption. Dubai's benchmark DFM General Index grew 0.5% on the back of gains in major stocks. Blue-chip real estate developer Emaar Properties climbed 1.9%. Spinneys, a supermarket operator in the Philippines, saw its shares rise 2.6% after the announcement that it would be launching premium grocery stores with Ayala Corp. The benchmark for Qatar fell by 0.8% as the largest lender in the Gulf, Qatar National Bank, saw its share price fall by 1.2%.
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Nine people are killed by flash floods in Odesa following torrential rainfall in southern Ukraine
Emergency services reported that flash floods had killed nine people, including five members of a family, in Odesa, Ukraine, following a torrential day of rain. The service posted images of cars being pulled out of the water and pictures showing passengers being lifted off a bus that was flooded. The service reported that "nine people, including an infant, have been confirmed dead". Maryna Averina, spokesperson of the Odesa emergency services for the region, told Ukrainian TV that a family of five living in a lower ground-floor flat were unable to leave the building. Averina said that three more women were killed while walking on a road. Hennadiy Trunkanov, the Mayor of Odesa, said earlier on Telegram that "in just seven hours Odesa received almost two months worth of rain." "No stormwater system can handle such a load." Governor Oleh Kiper stated that torrential rains had now been falling for the second day in the region. This has caused flooding, power outages, damage to property, and trees to fall. He said that over 500 workers had been involved in the rescue efforts. He said that 42,000 customers from 32 villages and towns were still without power. Reporting by Lidia Kelley and Anna Pruchnicka, Editing by Kim Coghill Clarence Fernandez Alexandra Hudson
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Bahrain taps debt markets with two-part US Dollar issue
Bahrain will tap the global debt markets with a 2-part issuance on Wednesday, becoming the latest Gulf sovereign capitalising on investor appetite to regional debt. Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Kuwait all raised debts in the last few weeks due to attractive borrowing rates and high demand. This allowed governments to diversify their funding sources in order to plug budget deficits and pay down debt and invest in economic diversification. Bahrain is looking to issue an Islamic bond or sukuk with a term of a little over eight years, as well as a conventional bond for a period of 12 years. The fixed-income news agency IFR said that Bahrain has set early price guidance around 6.25% and 7.0% respectively. S&P Global, the ratings agency, revised Bahrain's outlook from "stable" to "negative" in April. It cited ongoing market volatility and a high debt level, as well as a growing deficit, weaker financing conditions, which could increase interest costs for the government. Bahrain, one of the Gulf's smaller producers of oil, has intensified its efforts to diversify away from hydrocarbons and into sectors like tourism, financial services, and logistics. In the first half of this year, it raised $2.5 billion through a combined sukuk-conventional issue. Reporting by Rachna uppal Mark Potter (Editing)
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Scientists say that Swiss glaciers have melted rapidly after a heatwave and light snowfall.
Monitoring body GLAMOS reported on Wednesday that Switzerland's glaciers have melted significantly over the last 12 months, resulting in their fourth largest reduction in ice volumes on record. According to the report of GLAMOS, the Swiss Commission for Cryosphere Observation, a winter with little or no snow, particularly in the northeastern part, and heatwaves in June caused the glaciers' ice mass to decrease by 3%. Matthias Huss, director of GLAMOS whose reports cover October-September's hydrological year, said: "This is a lot." The trend is clear, even though the ice loss was less than in 2022 or 2023 when the glaciers fell by 5.9% and 4.4%, respectively. Huss, who spoke with a group of Valais residents during a trip to the Rhone glacier, said that Switzerland had experienced its worst decade in terms of ice melting. A quarter of the volume of glaciers has been lost since 2015. The Rhone Glacier, which was Europe's largest glacier during the Ice Age has shrunk rapidly, losing an average of 1.5 meters this year. According to GLAMOS about 100 glaciers have disappeared in Switzerland between 2016 and 2022. It is predicted that the majority could disappear before the end of this century. "Unfortunately, we cannot do much to save the glaciers... "They will retreat regardless, even if today's climate stabilizes," said Huss. If carbon dioxide emissions fell to zero worldwide in the next 30 year, up to 200 Swiss high-altitude glaciers could be saved. This year, Swiss glaciers under 3,000 metres were particularly affected. Silvretta Glacier, a once healthy glacier in northern Switzerland, experienced a massive ice melt after the lowest snowfall since the measurements began 100 years ago. Huss warned that shrinking glaciers also contributes to destabilisation of mountain ranges. This can cause avalanches, including those of ice and rock. For example, the glacier collapse in Valais that wiped out the village of Blatten this May. Reporting by Cecile and Denis Balibouse, Writing by Olivia Le Poidevin at Geneva; Editing done by Edwina.
Gold reaches record highs on U.S. Government shutdown and Fed rate cuts
Gold prices hit a record high on Tuesday, supported by demand for safe-haven metals as the U.S. Government shut down its operations. Growing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in this month also added to gold's appeal.
As of 0844 GMT spot gold was up 0.9% to $3,891.96 an ounce after reaching a session high of $3.895.09 earlier.
U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 1.2% to $ 3,918.60.
Dollar-priced greenback gold is now more affordable to overseas buyers as the dollar index has fallen by 0.2%, its lowest level for over a week.
The dollar is weakening due to expectations of a Fed that has become more dovish. This dynamic has accelerated since a failed effort to pass a budget bill triggered a shutdown of the government which could have a negative impact on economic output", said Ricardo Evangelista senior analyst at ActivTrades.
Deep partisan divides between Congress and the White House prevented them from reaching an agreement on funding.
The shutdown may delay the release key economic data such as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), due Friday.
Gold, which is viewed as a safe haven in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, flourishes in an environment with low interest rates.
Carsten Menke is an analyst with Julius Baer. He said that the Fed does not need the NFP report because U.S. rates are above neutral. If the economy is slowing down, it is important to move towards neutral.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors are pricing in 95% of a rate reduction this month.
ADP's national employment report is due to be released later today and should provide additional insights into the labour market.
Silver spot gained 1.5%, reaching $47.39 an ounce, which is a record high. Palladium rose 0.5% to $1,263.44, while platinum rose 0.6% at $1,583.75. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Ed Osmond)
(source: Reuters)