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Polish central bank expects the inflation rate to reach target by 2026
The central bank of Poland has predicted that the inflation rate in Poland will reach the target range in the first quarter 2026. This is earlier than expected. The following is a list of projected dates The bank announced on Friday. According to central bank forecasts from July, inflation is expected to reach 2.9% by the third quarter in 2025. It will then increase to 3.6% by the fourth quarter, and then drop to 3.5% at the beginning of 2026, the target inflation rate. The pace of growth in prices will slow to just 2.1% by the end of the projection period, which is the fourth quarter of 2027. "... Inflation in the CPI will be impacted by a weakening wage increase, and this will affect prices a little later due to market mechanisms. The National Bank of Poland has set an inflation target of 2.5%, plus or minus a percentage point. This week, the statistics office reported that annual inflation for June was 4.1%. This is slightly higher than a poll's forecast of 4.0% and up from the revised 4.0% for May. The Monetary Policy Council's (MPC) decision to lower interest rates in July was a surprise for the markets. The National Bank of Poland governor did not exclude another rate cut in September. According to the central bank's forecasts for July, Poland's GDP will grow faster in 2025 from 3.0% in 2020 to 3,6%. The National Recovery and Resilience Plan and the 2021-2027 Financial Framework will provide a significant boost to the investment trajectory. In 2026 the Polish economy will grow at a slower pace, namely 3.1%. This will then slow down to 2.5% in 2027. The report stated that "the slowdown in the GDP growth in the year 2027 is largely due the assumption of the termination of the spending funds under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan." The central bank stated that the projection was based on data available up to June 9, 2025. (Reporting and editing by Pawel Florkiewicz, Susan Fenton).
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A petrol station explosion in Rome has injured at least nine people
Italian authorities reported that at least nine people were injured, including eight officers of police and one firefighter. The explosion occurred in a petrol station east of Rome on Friday. Italian capital heard the loud explosion at the petrol, diesel and LPG distributor in Prenestino. The fire department issued a statement saying that they were still working on the tank explosion. One of their officers was hospitalised. Italian news agencies reported that emergency services had arrived on the scene prior to the explosion, after they were called when a truck struck a pipeline in the service station. The fire spread to nearby depots, and the shockwave of the explosion caused damage to nearby buildings. News agencies reported that eight police officers, ambulance workers, and passers-by were all injured. Five people were taken to hospital by emergency services. The local news website Roma Today posted a photo of a large ball of smoke and flames rising into the air above the service station. The fire department released separate images showing the petrol station nearly completely destroyed. A witness reported: "I heard the bang as I left the house. The whole house was shaking and I was worried that the windows would shatter due to the strength of the impact." In a press release, the office of Prime Minister Giorgia meloni said that she was closely monitoring the situation.
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Rhine River shipping is hampered by low water levels despite rain in Germany
Commodity traders reported on Friday that low water levels following a heatwave and drought have prevented cargo vessels from being fully loaded up the Rhine in Germany, despite this week's rain. Traders said that low water levels are hampering shipping along the entire river, south of Duisburg, Cologne and the chokepoint at Kaub. In general, ships are only able sail half-full. Traders said that cargo is still delivered by multiple vessels, rather than one. The rain this week only stabilized the water level and did not result in a significant improvement. Shallow water is when vessel operators increase freight rates in order to compensate for not fully loading the vessels. This increases costs for cargo owners. The next week is likely to bring more rain and cooler temperatures, but traders expect a stabilisation rather than an improvement in Rhine water levels. The Rhine is a major shipping route for grains, minerals, ore and coal, as well as oil products including heating oil. German companies will face production and supply problems in 2022 due to the unusually low levels of water on the Rhine caused by a heatwave and drought. Michael Hogan, reporting; David Goodman, editing
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Document from the government shows that India is looking to attract copper mining companies with overseas connections.
India announced a number of measures to increase the production of copper, including encouraging foreign companies to establish smelters in India in exchange for investing in state-owned mining operations overseas. India, the second largest refined copper importer in the world, may need to import between 91% and 97% of its copper by 2047. According to the document, despite an estimated 12,2 million metric tonnes of copper resources, only 16% are classified as reserves. This highlights limited domestic availability. The government document stated that the growing demand for imports of concentrates requires diversification in supply and acquisitions of foreign assets. It also said this highlights the urgent need for strategic interventions to support the sector. The document stated that India will include a copper chapter in its ongoing talks on a free trade agreement with Chile and Peru, to ensure securing standardized quantities of copper concentrate. The document stated that "India's options for sourcing copper have been reduced due to the tightening of supplies from key exporters such as Indonesia and Panama." "Countries like Chile and Peru are committed to long-term relationships with global players such as Japan and China." India imported 1.2 millions metric tons (tonnes) of copper during the fiscal year ending March 2025. This is 4% more than a year ago. Reporting by Rishika Sadam in Hyderabad and Neha arora in New Delhi. Editing by Janane Vekatraman, Harikrishnan Nair.
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Financials are the top choice for foreign investors in June.
Data from depository institutions showed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), who have been buying Indian stocks for three consecutive months, continued to do so in June. Their top choices were financials and oil & gas stocks. FPIs poured 89.46 billion rupees ($1.05 billion) into financials in June - 61.3% of the month's total 145.90 billion-rupee inflows, aided by attractive valuations, a sharper-than-expected 50-basis-points interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India, and a 100 bps reduction in the cash reserve ratio. Since the beginning of the month, foreign funds have invested 456.57 bn rupees into the financial sector. This has fueled an 18% increase in the industry. After a large outflow of foreign investors in the first quarter of this year, they have now returned to Indian stocks. Saurabh PATHAK, Head-Investment Counsellor at PurnarthaPMS, said: "This sudden shift in stance is due primarily to improvements in the domestic fundamentals. "A favorable India-U.S. Trade Deal could boost FPI confidence significantly and encourage them to continue participating." India and U.S. negotiators have been racing to reach a deal before President Donald Trump’s deadline of July 9, 2017. Oil and gas stocks attracted inflows as well, particularly in late June when a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran brought down crude prices. The oil and gas index rose by 3.6% in the last month. The early monsoon, and the cooler temperatures than expected, slowed down demand. Also, consumer stocks worth 39.85 Billion Rupees have been sold. Kranthi Bathini is the director of equity strategy for Wealthmills Securities. She said that investors are waiting to see clear signs of an uptick in consumption. (One dollar = 85,3410 Indian rupees).
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Indonesian nickel miners ask government to keep mining quota for three years
The Indonesian nickel miners association APNI urged the Indonesian government on Friday to continue mining quotas for a period of three years, to maintain a consistent climate in business. The Mining Minister said on Wednesday that the government intends to reduce the duration of mining quotas (also known as RKABs) to one year in order to better control the supply and support the prices of commodities like coal and nickel. The resource-rich nation extended the validity of quotas to three years in order to reduce the burden on authorities and applicants. Companies are still able to make revisions to their respective quotas every year. APNI said on Friday that while it appreciated efforts to sustain mining, reducing quotas would create bottlenecks for the approval process because thousands of miners would have to apply for quotas each year. "The government must strengthen its internal evaluation and supervision capacity, rather than lengthening the bureaucratic chains with shorter licensing terms," APNI stated in a press release. It said that a medium-term plan is essential for planning and investment. Yuliot Tanjung, deputy mining minister, said on Friday that details of the changes are "still being formed" but declined further comment. He didn't comment on the request of the association. In a late-night statement, the ministry reiterated its plan to maintain price stability and mitigate the impact of price decreases on government revenues. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Additional reporting by Hongmei LI; Reporting by Fransiska Naangoy)
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Cadbury-parent Mondelez calls for delay to EU deforestation law
Cadbury chocolate maker Mondelez wants to delay the deforestation legislation of the European Union by one year, according to a senior executive. Massimiliano di Domenico is the vice president for corporate and government affairs in Europe. He said that while Massimiliano supports EU Deforestation Regulation, he urged policymakers not to ignore "on-the ground realities." Di Domenico spoke at the European Parliament and posted his comments later on LinkedIn. Nestle, Mars Wrigley and Ferrero supported the law by signing a joint document in July of last year. They also urged Brussels to give clearer guidance and assistance to help the companies meet the deadline for compliance. Companies and traders who import soy, beef and other products must prove that their supply chain does not contribute to deforestation. If they fail to do this, they will be fined. Di Domenico stated that the cocoa industry is "under enormous pressure" because of soaring prices and declining production in origin countries, as well as digital infrastructure gaps which could disrupt supply chains and affect compliance. Di Domenico wrote in his blog: "We respectfully, transparency and responsibly call for a one-year delay -- not to dilute our ambition but to allow practical, inclusive and effective implementation." After criticism from the industry, the EU has already postponed its launch for a year, to December 2025. (Reporting by Anusha Shah in Bengaluru; Editing by Rachna Uppal)
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Dollar in a funk as Trump's deadline for tariffs looms
As the deadline for U.S. president Donald Trump to reach a trade deal looms next week, most Asian equity markets struggled and European stocks appeared set to open lower, despite Wall Street's overnight record highs. As traders weighed the implications of Trump's expected signing of a sweeping spending bill later that day, the dollar lost some of its gains from Thursday. U.S. S&P futures dipped by 0.3% after the cash index had risen overnight by 0.8% to a new closing high. Wall Street will be closed for Independence Day on Friday. The price of STOXX futures in Europe fell by 0.5%. Trump announced that Washington will begin sending letters on Friday to countries specifying the tariff rates they will be facing on exports into the United States. This is a significant shift from his earlier promises to reach scores of individual agreements before a deadline on July 9, when tariffs may rise dramatically. Tony Sycamore is an analyst with IG. He said that investors are "just waiting for July 9" and the lack of optimism in the market for trade agreements has contributed to some of the weakness of equity markets, especially those export-dependent Asia, such as Japan and South Korea. Sycamore stated that the jobs data on Thursday showed that "the U.S. Economy is holding up better than most people anticipated, which indicates to me markets can continue to do well" from here. Nikkei gained 0.1% at 0550 GMT, after trading in the early hours of the day saw gains and losses. South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.8%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.4% while mainland Chinese blue-chips added 0.7%. Taiwan's equity benchmark lost early gains and fell 0.9%. Investors cheered Thursday's surprisingly robust employment report, sending all three major U.S. equity indices soaring in a short session. The House approved Trump's 869-page signature bill after the vote ended. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, this would add $3.4 trillion dollars to the $36.2 trillion national debt. TRADE IS THE KEY FOCUS FOR ASIA Trump announced that he expects "a couple" of more trade deals after signing a deal on Wednesday with Vietnam to add to the framework agreements with China, and Britain which are so far his only achievements. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, said this week that an agreement with India was close. The White House had once said that agreements with Japan and South Korea would be announced as soon as possible. However, it appears these deals have fallen through. In a note to clients, Kristina Cliftons, a Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist, stated that "high tariffs on large economies such as Europe and Japan will increase the narrative of'sell U.S.,' weighing down USD." The USD would be supported by news of trade agreements ahead of the deadline of 9 July against major currencies such as GBP, EUR, and JPY. The U.S. Dollar rose overnight by as much as 0.7% against a basket major counterparts after traders backed off any expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in this month. It finished Thursday with a 0.4% increase. The U.S. dollar gave up some of its gains on Friday. It fell 0.4% to 144.31 Japanese yen, and 0.3% to 0.7926 Swiss Franc. The euro rose 0.2%, to $1.1783, and the pound sterling rose 0.2%, to $1.3681. The U.S. Treasury Bond market is closed for the holiday on Friday, but the 10-year yields increased 4.7 basis points to 4.34% and the 2-year yield increased 9.3 bps at 3.882%. Gold rose 0.4% to $3.339 an ounce. Brent crude futures dropped 21 cents, to $68.59 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 11 cents, to $66.89. (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates, Kim Coghill, and Kevin Buckland)
Weekly gain in gold heads as US tax cut bill fuels fiscal concerns
Gold was up slightly on Friday and is expected to gain a lot this week as the tax-cutting bill for President Donald Trump passed through Congress. This has raised concerns about fiscal matters.
As of 0221 GMT, spot gold increased 0.1%, to $3,329.67 an ounce. Bullion has risen 1.7% in the last week.
U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.1% to $3,339.30.
Trump's tax cut legislation cleared the final hurdle of the U.S. Congress Thursday. It will fund Trump's immigration crackdown and make permanent his 2017 tax cuts. He also promised new tax breaks during his campaign for 2024.
Edward Meir, Marex analyst, said that this bill would be "bad for the dollar" and "bullish for gold" in the long run.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that the legislation would add $3,4 trillion to the nation's debt of 36,2 trillion dollars over a ten-year period.
The labor market data released on Thursday revealed that U.S. companies added more than expected 147,000 jobs in the month of June, and that the unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly to 4.1%. This strengthened the argument for the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged.
Trump announced on Friday that he would start sending out letters containing tariff rates for imports, a departure from his earlier promises to negotiate individual deals.
Meir stated that "if Trump insists on July 9 as a date of no return and he imposes tariffs again, we will see the dollar weakening and gold could move higher."
Trump announced reciprocal duties of 10%-50% on April 2. He later reduced the rates to 10% for most countries until July 9, to allow time for negotiations.
In a low interest rate environment, non-yielding gold bullion is a good investment.
Silver spot fell by 0.5%, to $36.66 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.7%, to $1376.67, and palladium dropped 0.6%, to $1130.60. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich in Bengaluru, Anmol Choubey from Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)