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LME copper set to rise at its fastest pace since September due to tightening supply

Copper prices in London were unchanged on Friday but are on track for their largest monthly increase in eight months, due to tighter supply. This is highlighted by the premium of nearby copper contracts compared with those further away.

The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange was unchanged at $9,570 per metric ton as of 1006 GMT. The contract has risen 4.8% in May so far, and is on track to have its best month since September.

Prices are supported by the decline in stocks at LME-registered storage facilities The lowest level in nearly a year, with a drop of 45% from mid-February. The Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored copper inventories in warehouses rose 7.2% during the week.

The premium for COMEX copper over the LME benchmark is still high, which attracts more metal to COMEX owned warehouses.

"The LME Copper is facing a little squeeze because the COMEX stock keeps going up and the LME stock is declining," said Dan Smith.

Spread between cash LME and three-month copper contracts Closed on Thursday at $51.6 per ton, the highest premium since November 2022. This indicates concerns about supply.

Smith said that the premium, or backwardation as it is also known, reflects the uncertainty surrounding the supply of copper from the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This mine is the largest copper producer in Africa, and one of the largest in the world, Smith explained.

The industrial metals as a whole were under pressure, with the dollar strengthening and the market losing optimism following a recent court ruling which reinstated tariffs that President Donald Trump had imposed.

China's Futures Markets are closed until 3 June for the Dragon Boat Holiday, which has reduced the overall trading volume.

On the demand side, Saturday's official purchasing managers index (PMI), which is a measure of metals consumption in China, will be the main focus. A poll shows that China's factory output likely declined for a second consecutive month in May.

LME aluminium dropped 0.3% to $2.443.50 per ton. Zinc fell 0.4% to 2,663.50; lead lost 0.2% at $1.958; tin declined 1.8% to $30.655 while nickel increased 0.2% at $15.395. (Reporting from London by Polina Devlin; Additional reporting in Bengaluru by Brijesh Patel; Editing by Jane Merriman).

(source: Reuters)