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Knot, ECB's Knot, says that tariffs can create a stagflationary shock over the long-term.

Klaas Knot, ECB policymaker, said that the sweeping import tariffs imposed by Donald Trump in the U.S. are likely to lead to a stagflationary effect over time, increasing inflation and stalling economic growth.

"A trade conflict is a negative shock to the supply." Knot, at a Dutch central bank conference in Amsterdam, said that it was a stagflationary jolt.

Knot said that the effect will likely become inflationary over time, rather than deflationary. He also cited the soaring government spending in Germany, and the necessity to invest heavily in European defense.

Knot said that the ECB's main task would be to determine when tariffs begin to impact economic activity and business decision-making. However, he added that it would be premature to make new projections at the policy meeting next week.

Knot stated that the central banks had not yet intervened due to the turmoil in the markets caused by tariff announcements.

He said that "market functioning has so far been preserved".

The hedge fund industry had already delevered. They saw it coming. They were able to meet the margin calls. This was not the situation in previous episodes. Bart Meijer, Andrew Cawthorne, and Hugh Lawson edited the report.

(source: Reuters)