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The embattled Congo President considers meeting with the M23 rebels

Felix Tshisekedi, the president of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), has been denying dialogue to M23 rebels backed by Rwanda that are ravaging eastern parts of his nation. But a series of defeats as well as waning support in regional circles have made him reconsider.

Angola, a neighboring country, surprised many this week when it announced that Congo and M23 will sit down for direct negotiations in its capital city on 18 March. This is at a moment when the rebels continue to seize territory rich with minerals like coltan and tantalum.

Tshisekedi’s government has not publicly committed to sending a delegation, but this week three sources in the government said he was seriously considering it.

Diplomats and analysts say that regional powers seem to agree on the need for dialogue, given the weak resistance of the Congolese army and its allies against the advance of the rebels.

One senior diplomat stated: "I've never spoken to an African country who said Kinshasa should not talk to M23."

Everyone says, "How can you stop fighting if you do not engage them?"

A source told us on Friday that the government's participation in Luanda was certain, but it was too early to determine who would be representing Kinshasa.

Some sources stated that the debate is still going on and a decision will not be likely made until the next week.

M23, on its part, demanded that Tshisekedi give a clear commitment to engaging in dialogue.

Both sides expressed concerns about the framework, and the way in which the Angola-hosted discussions would conform to regional decisions aimed at resolving the conflict.

On Monday, the foreign and defence ministers of Southern and East Africa will meet in Harare to discuss efforts to end hostilities and promote political dialogue.

'FAILED' MILITARY APPROACH

According to U.N. expert, M23 has thousands of Rwandan soldiers backing them. Their superior weapons and equipment have allowed them to take control of east Congo's largest cities as well as a number of smaller towns since late January.

Rwanda denies that it provided arms and troops for M23 and claims its forces were acting in self-defense against the Congolese Army and militias hostile towards Kigali.

It is unlikely that sitting down with M23 in Kinshasa would be popular, especially given Tshisekedi’s repeated promises to never do so.

Bob Kabamba, a Congolese analyst at the University of Liege (Belgium), said that it would be an admission that Tshisekedi’s pursuit of a "military solution" has "failed".

He said that "Kinshasa is stuck in its position, believing the rebel alliance must not cross a threshold of critical importance."

Angola, Congo's neighbor, may have also made the same calculation. They were wary of getting sucked into a regional conflict of greater scale that would be similar to those which killed millions of people in 1990s and 2000s.

"Angola clearly decided it was necessary to intervene in order to prevent the M23's advance towards the west of DRC," said Stephanie Wolters. She is a Congo analyst at South Africa's Institute for Security Studies.

This week, the lack of confidence in Tshisekedi to change the military tide was seen in the approval by Southern African leaders of the "phased" withdrawal of a regional mission known as SAMIDRC which had the mandate to combat rebels.

Wolters stated that although the deployment was not strong enough to make a difference in the fight against M23 but its presence was a sign of regional support towards Congo. Its departure was therefore deemed 'a significant blow'. (Additional reporting by Giulia Paraavicini; Writing and editing by Robbie Corey Boulet)

(source: Reuters)