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Dollar and stocks are in focus as US-Japan talks take center stage
The dollar rose slightly on Thursday as traders took stock in the trade negotiations between Japan and the U.S., despite the uncertainty surrounding tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump. Gold prices reached new record highs on the back of safe-haven flows. Investors also digested comments made by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell who warned about the risks of slowing down growth and increasing prices due to tariffs. After a bruising trading session on Wednesday, the spotlight remained on technology stocks in light of the warnings issued by bellwethers Nvidia & ASML and ahead of TSMC's earnings. Japan's Nikkei index rose by 0.7%, while the yen fell as Japan began talks with the United States. Trump, who joined the talks unexpectedly, announced "big progress" during the talks with Ryosei Acazawa, the lead Japanese negotiator. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist of Saxo. He said that markets are detecting new signs of optimism in trade negotiations, as U.S.-Japan talks and China's willingness to engage in discussions have revived risk appetite. This is especially true in beaten down, trade sensitive markets. Even a discussion about a conversation can boost the markets when investors are able to move from fear to optimism. Stock markets in Asia were mixed after the U.S. closed sharply lower. South Korea's benchmark stock index increased 0.7% while Taiwan stocks declined 0.5%. European futures indicated a subdued opening. Powell also said that the Fed will wait to see more data about the direction of the economy before it makes any interest rate changes. Tom Graff is the chief investment officer of Facet. "Powell's in a tough spot," he said. "The Fed cannot act proactively to stem potential economic weakness because tariffs will likely also cause inflation." The health of the semiconductor industry will be gauged by the earnings forecast from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's biggest contract chipmaker. The stock market took a beating on Wednesday, after Dutch giant ASML said that tariffs would increase uncertainty about its outlooks for 2025 and 26. AI pioneer Nvidia warned of a $5.5billion hit after Washington restricted the export of its AI processor designed for China. "The chipmakers' demand could be affected if there is a recession, for whatever reason, said Chris Zaccarelli. Chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. But there is the possibility that there could be a decrease in demand if there were tariff barriers, or if short-term costs are imposed. The blue-chip index of Chinese stocks was little changed on Thursday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.6% led by a recovery in tech shares. TRADE TALKS Investors have focused on the fast-changing trade policies of Trump, as they wait to see whether new agreements will be reached between the U.S. Investors dumped U.S. Treasuries and other assets last week because of uncertainty about the implementation of trade levies. The Treasury market has been fairly stable this week. The benchmark U.S. 10 year Treasury yield increased by 3 basis points to 4.311%. The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1367, but it was still close to its three-year high. This was ahead of the European Central Bank's policy announcement where rate cuts are widely expected. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. Currency against six units) was slightly higher for the day, at 99.562. The yen reached a seven-month peak earlier in the session, before falling to a 0.55% lower rate of 142.64 dollars per yen after Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Acazawa stated that foreign exchange was not discussed during the Washington trade talks. Gold prices have been the focus of commodities as they reached yet another record-high, reaching as high as 3,357.40 an ounce in the morning session, due to the safe-haven flow. Gold prices were last unchanged at $3,341.91 an ounce. The prospect of tighter supplies has helped oil prices extend their gains. Brent crude futures increased 0.93% to $66.46 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose more than 1% to $63.2 per barrel.
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Asia Gold-Indian demand is still lacking, but premiums are holding firm in China
The demand for gold in India was muted this week, as a price surge curtailed purchases. Premiums in China, the top consumer of physical gold, remained stable. Indian dealers offer a discount Up to $74 per ounce, excluding import duties and sales taxes, compared to last week's up to $33 per ounce discount. A Mumbai-based dealer from a private bullion bank said that demand has almost disappeared due to a price rally unprecedented even by bulls two to three month ago. On Thursday, the domestic gold price reached a new record of 95.894 rupees for 10 grams. A bullion dealer in Ahmedabad said that banks increased their imports at prices much lower than those of the current market. They are now offering these supplies with a significant discount. The dealer stated that "gold was imported before the Akshay Tiritiya Festival, but it now looks like the demand will be low during Akshay Tiritiya due to the price spike." Dealers in China, the top consumer, charged premiums between $15 and $21 per ounce above global benchmark spot price, compared with premiums ranging from $24 to $54 last week. Ross Norman, a independent analyst, said that "we heard demand for physical products in China remains strong despite record price levels - this is an exception to the norm, where Asian buyers are expected to be sensitive to prices." Investors sought safe havens as trade tensions between China and the U.S. escalated and global economic growth concerns increased. In Hong Kong, gold In Singapore, the price was $2.10 higher than par. Gold traded at a premium up to $2.50 an ounce over the global benchmark. In Japan, bullion Was sold at a discount of $1 for a premium of $0.5 A Tokyo-based trader said: "Local investors continue to buy gold, but their purchases are smaller than they used to be." Reporting by Anushree mukherjee from Bengaluru, and Rajendra jadhav from Mumbai. Editing by Sonia Cheema.
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Shanghai copper increases on weaker dollar and improving Chinese economy
Shanghai copper rose on Thursday as a weaker dollar and improved economic data from China, the world's largest metal consumer, boosted market sentiment. As of 0315 GMT, the most traded copper contract on Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), rose 0.7%, to 76.090 yuan per ton ($10,413.02). Dollar index is near the three-year-low hit last week. This makes greenback-priced goods cheaper for buyers who use other currencies. Data released on Wednesday showed that China's economy grew by 5.4% on an annual basis in the first three months of this year, exceeding estimates. This was due to solid industrial output and consumption. Daniel Hynes is a senior commodity analyst at ANZ Bank. He said that "copper led the base-metals higher after better than expected economic data in China boosted confidence." Beijing has ordered airlines not to accept any more Boeing aircraft deliveries, and the U.S. government has limited the export of Nvidia H20 artificial-intelligence chip to China. ANZ stated in a report that if global GDP growth drops below 3% we may see a 5-10% reduction in the demand for copper. The data released by the Peruvian energy and mines minister on Wednesday showed that the copper output was almost flat in February compared to the same month last year. The benchmark copper price for the three-month period on the London Metal Exchange remained unchanged at $9,199 per metric ton. LME aluminium rose by 0.4% to a ton of $2,391.5, while lead increased 0.6% to $1,919; nickel remained at $15,690 per ton; zinc increased 1.2% to $2,612 and tin rose 1% to $31,095. SHFE aluminium rose 0.7% to 19,700 Chinese yuan per ton. Zinc fell 0.1% to 22125 yuan. Lead increased 0.2% at 16,785 yuan. Tin climbed 0.2% to 258,250 Yuan. Nickel gained 0.9% at 125,860 Yuan. ($1 = 7.3072 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich in Bengaluru)
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Weekly oil price rises as US sanctions against Iran and OPEC cutbacks
The oil prices continued to rise on Thursday, as the supply was expected to be tighter after Washington imposed new sanctions to curtail Iranian oil trade. Some OPEC producers also pledged to cut their output to compensate for pumping more than agreed quotas. Brent crude futures increased 55 cents or 0.8% to $66.40 per barrel at 0321 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 66 cents or 1.1%, reaching $63.13 per barrel. The benchmarks for both currencies settled at 2% higher levels on Wednesday, their highest since April 3. They are now on course to see their first weekly increase in three weeks. Thursday is the final settlement day for the week before Good Friday and the Easter holiday. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said: "I believe the rally is due to a few factors - shorts covering and the weaker USD, which makes crude cheaper to purchase. Also, U.S. sanctions against Iran." He said that WTI may rise to $65 or $67 per barrel, but further gains could be difficult. Sycamore stated that if we assume the U.S. GDP will be flat for the next two years and the Chinese GDP will slow to somewhere in the range of 3%-4%, this is not good news for crude oil. The Trump administration issued new sanctions on Iran's oil trade on Wednesday. These included a "teapot oil refinery" in China. This is a way to increase pressure on Tehran as talks about the country's nuclear program escalate. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, (OPEC), said Wednesday that it received updated plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other countries for further production cuts to compensate pumping over quotas. Michael McCarthy, CEO Moomoo, said that "these factors" could have affected sentiment – would argue that Iranian output (is) not important and that OPEC quotas are more often violated than observed. But both factors contributed to the more bullish mood. Big draws on U.S. gasoline and distillates stocks and a smaller-than-expected gain in weekly crude inventories also bolstered markets, he said. McCarthy stated that the recent drop in refining may indicate a bottleneck in supply. OPEC, International Energy Agency, and Goldman Sachs, as well as several banks including JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, have all cut their forecasts for oil prices and growth in demand this week, despite the fact that U.S. Tariffs and retaliation by other countries has thrown global trade into chaos. The World Trade Organization has said that it expects the trade of goods to decline by 0.2% in this year. This is down from its October expectation of a 3.0% increase. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue; Florence Tan, Reporting)
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Purus’ CSOV Newbuild Ready for Offshore Wind Ops (Video)
Purus’ new commissioning service operation vessel (CSOV), built by Vard, has completed sea trials and will soon embark on its maiden offshore wind job for Vestas.The owner and and operator of service operation vessel Purus has informed its first of the two CSOV vessel, ordered from Vard in 2023, is almost ready for the start of its service, having completed the sea trials.The vessel is scheduled to be delivered from Vard to Purus in the second quarter of 2025, after which it will immediately embark on its maiden job for Vestas, as part of the multi-year agreement signed with Vestas in 2024.The Purus Chinook has the capacity to house up to 120 people, and also offers an all-electric gangway, 18-metre helideck, over 5 tonne capacity 3D motion compensated crane and next-generation Chartwell 12 passenger daughter craft.The vessel will be the first Vard 419-designed CSOV delivered to Purus’ operated fleet, with her sister vessel, Purus Coriolis, expected for delivery in the second quarter of 2026.Both vessels underscore Purus’ commitment to decarbonizing the maritime sector by incorporating future sustainability options, such as the potential for dual fuel methanol-ready propulsion to further lower emissions, which is being targeted for possible implementation from 2027.
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Gold prices fall due to profit-booking
Gold prices fell on Thursday, as investors took profits after the bullion reached a record high earlier in session. The demand for gold was boosted by the continued uncertainty over tariffs and restrictions on chip exports to China. Gold spot fell 0.1% at $3,339.37 per ounce by 0312 GMT after reaching a session high of $3 357.40. Bullion is up more than 3% this week. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.2% to $3.351.50. Gold prices are at new record highs. The precious metal will continue to rise as the trade chaos continues, despite reasonable pullbacks. Nikos Tzabouras is a Senior Market Analyst for Tradu.com. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, escalated his trade dispute on Tuesday by ordering a probe of potential new tariffs for all imports of critical minerals. This comes on top reviews on pharmaceuticals and chips imports. Beijing has ordered airlines not to take any more Boeing aircraft deliveries. Tzabouras stated that "Sino Western tensions are not easing" and the U.S. Dollar has been a victim of Trump's policies. Its role as a haven is now being questioned, which makes gold more appealing. The dollar index was hovering near the three-year low reached last week. This made gold more appealing to other currency holders. Trevor Yates is an analyst at Global X. He said that the volatility of the bond and equity markets may also encourage investors to add more gold in their portfolio. Gold has increased by more than 27% this year. Analysts at ANZ stated that "we maintain our bullish stance towards gold, although a pullback toward $3,050 an ounce appears possible after a swift price rally." Silver fell 1%, to $32.43 per ounce. Platinum dropped 0.2%, to $965.46. Palladium was down 1.4%, to $958.26. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Nandy, Savio D’Souza and Rahul Mukherjee from Bengaluru)
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Iron ore prices rise as the focus shifts from fundamentals to positives
Iron ore futures rose on Thursday as investors focused back on the fundamentals that are favorable, such as a firm demand in the near term and a lower supply. However, intense trade tensions among the two world's largest economies limited gains. As of 0256 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.99% higher. It was valued at 713.5 Yuan ($97.63). In the early part of the session, the contract reached 715 yuan - its highest level since April 11. The benchmark iron ore for May on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.57% to $98.75 per ton. Prices of the main steelmaking ingredient were supported by the lower supply caused by bad weather in the last quarter and the firm demand for the near future. BHP Group reported slightly less iron ore production in the third quarter due to cyclones. Rio Tinto, Vale and the other two giants reported lower first quarter shipments and production. The data of the China Iron and Steel Association, a state-backed organization, showed that the daily crude steel production among the member steel mills in the first 10 days of April was about 2.2 million tonnes, which is 3.4% more than the previous ten-day period. China's crude output of steel in March increased by 4.6%, reaching a 10-month high at 92.84 millions metric tons. ANZ analysts noted that China's willingness to engage in trade negotiations also helped to boost commodity sentiment. China unexpectedly appointed a new trade mediator on Wednesday, an important appointment that market participants interpreted positively as a possible positive signal for the escalating US tariff war. Coking coal and coke, the other steelmaking ingredients in the DCE, moved sideways. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks were mixed. Rebar was 0.1% higher. Wire rod and stainless steel were up 0.3%. Hot-rolled coils fell 0.22%. ($1 = 7.3085 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Colleen Howe)
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Powell's comments and trade war weigh on the dollar, stocks, and stock prices
The dollar was anchored near three-year lows on Thursday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned about the risks of slowing the growth of the economy and increasing prices due to tariffs. After a bruising trading session on Wednesday, the spotlight remained on technology stocks in light of warnings issued by bellwethers Nvidia & ASML and earnings from Taiwanese TSMC. Gold prices, which are considered safe havens, continued to rise, setting yet another record in the early hours of trading on Thursday. Powell's remarks that U.S. growth was slowing led Treasury yields to fall. Stock markets in Asia were hesitant after the U.S. stock market closed with a sharp decline. South Korea's benchmark stock index rose 0.4%, while Taiwan stocks dropped 0.5%. The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.7%, while the yen fell as Japan began talks with the U.S. President Donald Trump said that there had been "big progress" in the surprise decision to directly negotiate with the Japanese delegation. Powell also said that the Fed will wait to see more data about the direction of the economy before it makes any interest rate changes. Tom Graff is the chief investment officer of Facet. "Powell's in a tough spot," he said. "The Fed cannot act proactively to stem potential economic weakness because tariffs will likely also cause inflation." They simply cannot cut rates when inflation is rising. "This is doubly true given that inflation is already very high." The health of the semiconductor industry will be gauged by the earnings forecast from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's biggest contract chipmaker. The stock market took a beating on Wednesday, after Dutch giant ASML said that tariffs would increase uncertainty about its outlook for the years 2025 and 26. AI pioneer Nvidia warned of a $5.5billion hit after Washington restricted the export of its AI processor designed for China. "The chipmakers' demand could be affected if there is a recession, for whatever reason, said Chris Zaccarelli. Chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. But there is the possibility that there could be a decrease in demand if there were tariff barriers, or if short-term costs are imposed. Early trading saw Chinese stocks fall as fears of a escalating U.S. China trade war dampened sentiment. Blue-chip stocks were down 0.5% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was up 0.6%. TRADE TALKS Investors have focused on the fast-changing trade policies of Trump, as they wait to see whether new agreements will be reached between the U.S. Investors dumped U.S. Treasuries and other assets last week because of uncertainty about the implementation of trade levies. In the Asian hours, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield remained at 4,302% after falling by over 4 basis points during the previous session. The euro fell 0.33% to $1.1364, but it was still close to its three-year-high reached last week. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. money against six other currencies) was slightly higher for the day, at 99.562. The yen reached a seven-month peak earlier in the session, before falling to 142.60 dollars per yen after Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Acazawa stated that foreign exchange was not discussed during the Washington trade talks. Gold prices have been the focus of commodities as they reached yet another record-high, reaching as high as 3,357.40 an ounce in the morning session, due to the safe-haven flow. Gold last stood at $3,337.4 an ounce. The prospect of a tighter supply has helped oil prices extend their gains. Brent crude futures increased 0.38%, to $66.1 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.58%.
CERAWEEK: Agarwal, a billionaire oil industry investor, may expand Cairn production by investing in US oil service companies
Cairn India, India's largest private oil and gas company, said Tuesday that it could invest in U.S. engineering and service companies as part a plan of $5 billion to increase output by five times in the next few years.
Anil Agarwal, a billionaire, said in an interview that he wanted to invest $5 billion to develop his project and reach 500,000 barrels of oil per day.
Cairn Limited, a part of Vedanta, produces today 100,000 bpd. The company plans to drill several deepwater exploratory wells in the next year.
Agarwal said, during a trip to Houston, where he attended CERAWeek, that Cairn is looking to buy five or six drilling rigs and work with seven or eight technical partners to explore and develop the offshore project.
Agarwal stated, "We would like to have at least 20 drilling rigs working in our field."
He said, "I can invest into the engineering company and the rig company because it will help me explore India better."
I'd love to see American companies come together and work on this project. (Reporting and editing by Simon Webb, David Gregorio, and Ron Bousso)
(source: Reuters)