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Indian exports are uncertain due to Trump's tariffs

Indian exports are uncertain due to Trump's tariffs

Citi Research analysts estimate that potential losses could be as high as $7 billion per year.

Officials from the government are waiting for details on how tariffs will work before they can fully assess their economic impact. They have also been working to develop a U.S. Trade Deal to reduce tariffs and increase two-way trading.

The impact of reciprocal tariffs in India is summarized below.

SECTORS at Risk

Citi analysts state that chemicals, metals and jewellery are the most vulnerable, followed by pharmaceuticals, food products and automobiles.

India's merchandise exported to the United States is estimated to be nearly $74 billion by 2024. This includes pearls, gemstones and jewellery valued at $8.5 billion; pharmaceuticals worth about $8 billion; and petrochemicals of around $4 billion.

Citi estimates that India's tariffs for Indian exports will be around 8.2 points higher in 2023 than the U.S.

US Exports to India

U.S. manufacturing exported to India will be worth nearly $42 billion by 2024. The tariffs are significantly higher, from as little as 7% for wood products and machinery, to as high as 15%-20% on footwear, transport equipment and food.

The White House stated in a factsheet last week that the average tariff applied by the U.S. on farm products was 5%, compared with India's 39%.

It added that India imposed a tariff of 100% on U.S. Motorcycles, while the U.S. only imposed a tariff of 2.4% on Indian Motorcycles.

AGRICULTURE SECTOR

India's food and farm exports, where the tariff differentials are highest but the trade volume is low, would be the most affected if the United States decided to impose reciprocal duties on a wider range of agricultural products.

PRODUCTS MADE FROM TEXTILE AND LEATHER, AS WELL AS WOOD

Textiles, leather, and wood products, which are labour-intensive, face a relatively lower risk due to lower tariff differentials or the limited share of U.S. India trade.

Many American companies also produce these products in South Asia, and they benefit from India's Free Trade Agreements. This allows them to sell the products on their domestic market with lower tariffs.

WORST CASE SCENARIO

Standard Chartered Bank's economists estimate that in the worst case scenario, if the United States imposes a uniform 10% tariff on all goods imported from India, the Indian economy would suffer a 50- to 60-basis point hit, assuming a drop of between 11% and 12% of imports.

What India can offer

India has reduced tariffs to ease tensions over trade. For example, it has cut the tariff on high-end motorbikes to 30% from 50%, and on bourbon whisky to 100% from 150%. It also promised to review other tariffs and increase energy imports and buy more defence equipment. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Manoj Kumar)

(source: Reuters)