Latest News
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Aluminium firms following EU ban on Russian imports
London aluminium prices rose on Thursday, after the European Union proposed to ban imports of this metal from Russia as part of a new package of sanctions in response to its invasion of Ukraine. The price of three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.3%, to $2.626 per metric ton at 0215 GMT. The proposal stated that the EU ban would cover aluminium alloys, and there would be a phase-in of one year. Imports "necessary", amounting to 275,000 metric tonnes, were exempt from this ban. Trade Data Monitor reports that the 27-member bloc imported 330,000 tonnes of Russian primary aluminum and alloys between January and November last year. Daniel Hynes senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank said that aluminium led base metals to rise after the EU proposal. Hynes stated that the threat of additional sanctions on Russia's aluminium led to an increase in metal heading to China. The benchmark copper price remained at $9072 after Wednesday's drop to its lowest level since January 8 The dollar index dropped 0.1% from the one-week high reached in the previous session, as the Federal Reserve put a pause on its easing program overnight. The greenback is cheaper to those who hold other currencies. In an earlier statement, Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he planned to impose tariffs against aluminium, steel, and copper. The White House reiterated this position on Tuesday, saying that Trump will still impose tariffs against Canada and Mexico this Saturday. He is also considering new tariffs against China. Citi stated in a report that "we continue to expect LME flat metal prices to weaken in response to confirmations of larger tariffs." We expect the Comex copper price to be higher than LME as soon as tariffs have been confirmed and implemented. LME zinc rose by 0.2%, to $2,787.5 per ton. Lead rose by 0.4%, to $1,967.5, and tin gained 0.3%, to $30,195. Nickel fell 0.5%, to $15,425. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will be closed during the Lunar New Year holidays. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu S. Sahu, with Ashitha Shivaprasad reporting from Bengaluru).
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Oil prices steady while markets wait for clarity on Trump's tariffs on Canada and Mexico
Early trading on Thursday saw little change in crude oil prices as the markets awaited tariffs from U.S. president Donald Trump against Mexico and Canada, two of the largest suppliers of crude to United States. Brent crude futures were up 7 cents or 0.1% at $76.71 per barrel as of 0122 GMT. U.S. Crude Futures rose 17 cents or 0.2% to $72.79 On Wednesday, U.S. Crude Futures settled at the lowest price of this year. Karoline Leavitt, White House spokesperson, told reporters Tuesday that President Donald Trump plans to fulfill his promise on Saturday to impose tariffs on Canada & Mexico. Howard Lutnick is Trump's nominee for the Commerce Department. He said that Canada and Mexico could avoid tariffs by closing their borders quickly to fentanyl. Lutnick also promised to slow China's artificial intelligence advancement. The U.S. crude oil stocks rose 3.46 million barrels during the week ending January 29, roughly in line analysts' estimates of a 3.19 million-barrel rise, due to the winter storms which ravaged the country. Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chairperson, said that the U.S. Central Bank held interest rates at their current level on Wednesday. He added that there was no rush to reduce them until new data indicated a return of falling inflation or a rise in risks in employment. Lower borrowing costs increase economic activity and fuel demand. Investors are also looking forward to a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies scheduled for February 3. Kazakhstan announced on Wednesday that the OPEC+ group, which includes leading oil producers, will discuss Trump's attempts to increase U.S. production of oil and adopt a common stance. Trump also publicly urged OPEC, and its largest member Saudi Arabia, lower oil prices to end the conflict in Ukraine. The group has already drafted a plan to gradually undo previous cuts and start increasing oil production in April. This plan was delayed multiple times due to weak demand. (Reporting and editing by Sonali Paul in Houston, Arathy Smasekhar)
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Powell: Fed is guided by law and economics, not politics.
Responding to a variety of questions on the impact of the Trump Administration on the U.S. Central Bank, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that politics was not the reason for the Fed's departure from a global group focused on climate change, and it would not influence its interest rate decisions. Powell said that while the Fed was working to align their workforce policies with the executive order of President Donald Trump banning diversity and inclusion promotion, any changes would only be minor, and they will be in line with the applicable laws. Powell also stated that he is still convinced that diversity is the hallmark of successful organisations. The Fed is very careful to protect its independence in monetary policy, as it believes that any political influence on the central bank's interest rate setting will undermine its ability control inflation. Trump, who criticized Powell and Fed frequently during his first term is again testing these limits. He said last week that he will "demand" immediate rate cuts. Powell, when asked Wednesday about the President's remarks, said: "It is not appropriate to comment." He added that "the public can be assured that we will do our work in the same way we have always done it, using our tools and focusing on our goals, while keeping our heads down." He said that with inflation still exceeding its 2% target, the Fed will wait to see if there is any further progress in inflation or a weakening of the labor market before cutting interest rates. He declined to make any predictions about how Trump's trade, immigration, tax and regulation policies would impact the economy. He said that the committee was waiting to see which policies were implemented. DODD-FRANK: EXECUTIVE ORDINANCE Trump launched a new attack shortly after the press conference. Trump posted on Truth Social that if the Fed spent less time on DEI and gender ideology, "green" energy, and fake global warming, inflation would not have been an issue. He promised to fix it with his policies. Around the time of Trump’s Jan. 20, 2017 inauguration, and his executive order, which directed government agencies to stop efforts to promote DEI, or diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), The Fed and its 12 regional banks removed sections of their websites devoted to racial diversity and gender diversity. Changes include the removal of data about the number of women and minority economists at the Fed, and standards for diversity in the workforce. These standards were developed to meet the requirements of the Dodd-Frank Financial Reforms, passed by Congress in 2010. Maxine Waters (Democrat) has argued that a Dodd-Frank executive order can't undo the legal requirement under Dodd-Frank to promote diversity and inclusivity. Powell said that "we're reviewing orders and associated details" for the new diversity policy. "As we have done in previous administrations, our goal is to align our policies as necessary with executive orders, consistent with the applicable law." He didn't mention any possible policy changes in recruitment or hiring at Central Bank. FED LEAVES CLIMATE RISE GROUP Three days before Trump’s inauguration, Fed withdrew its membership from a global organization of central banks devoted to exploring methods to reduce climate risks in the financial sector. In 2020, after the election of Democrat Joe Biden as president and the end of Trump's term, the Fed joined the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors to Green the Financial System. Powell explained that the decision was not driven by politics. "I am aware of how it may appear, but it wasn't," Powell said. Powell said that he decided to discuss the possibility of leaving "some months ago," because the group's mandate had expanded and it "wasn't a good match for the Fed anymore." Some analysts still see the recent Fed actions as a way to undermine Fed independence. Michael Barr, Fed Vice-Chair for Supervision, announced earlier in January that he would step down from his regulatory oversight position by the end next month. This will allow Trump to replace him with someone who has a more lenient approach, in line with Trump’s preferences and the Republican majority of Congress. Derek Tang, a LH Meyer analyst, wrote that "Republican pressure on the Fed would be felt in all areas of its activity," even though Powell's strategy seemed to be to maintain monetary policy autonomy even at the expense of giving up autonomy in other fields. (Reporting and editing by Ann Saphir; reporting by Michael S. Derby, Howard Schneider, and Dan Burns)
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US Senate confirms Zeldin to be EPA administrator
The U.S. Senate voted on Wednesday, 56-42, to confirm former Republican congressman Lee Zeldin as the head of the Environmental Protection Agency. Zeldin will be tasked to roll back climate regulations from former President Joe Biden, which were aimed to reduce emissions from factories, power plants, and vehicles. Zeldin is the 44-year-old nominee of President Donald Trump to lead EPA deregulation efforts. He will remove obstacles on oil and natural gas drilling, and reverse course on Biden's emission rules aimed at encouraging more electric vehicle usage. Three Democrats supported the former New York Representative, Arizona Senators Mark Kelly, Ruben Gallego and Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman. Zeldin's confirmation hearing was a breeze this month. Some Democrats asked him to clarify Trump and his views on climate change and whether greenhouse gas emissions are regulated. The EPA will review its "endangerment findings" - a determination by the agency that greenhouse gas emission harms human health. This is the basis for the agency's power to regulate heat-trapping emissions emitted from cars and smokestacks. Zeldin told senators that a 2007 Supreme Court decision gave the agency statutory power to regulate heat-trapping green house gases, but it did not obligate EPA to act. Zeldin, a New York Congressman, voted against legislation addressing green issues. He also voted in opposition to a measure that would have stopped oil companies from extorting prices. Zeldin, a 2022 candidate for governor of New York, criticized his state's decision not to join California's Zero Emission Vehicle program which aims to eliminate the sale gasoline-powered vehicles by the year 2035. Trump said he aimed to reverse many of the rules that the EPA administers on the burning fossil fuels, including one that curbs carbon emissions from power stations and another that reduces such emissions from cars. Trump said he would begin rescinding EPA vehicle pollution regulations and Transportation Department rules on his very first day as president. He also wants to reduce or eliminate EV incentives and tax breaks. Environmental groups have criticized the confirmation. They claim that Zeldin's priority will be to carry out Trump’s agenda, rather than follow environmental laws. Lena Moffitt, Executive Director of Evergreen Action, said that Zeldin, as the administration attempts to eliminate the environmental protections and investments in clean energy, has stated he is willing to follow suit, reversing essential safeguards. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, Chair of the Senate Environment Committee applauded Zeldin's confirmation. She said that Zeldin was "well qualified" and "capable of returning the EPA back to its core mission of protecting land, water, and air without hindering economic development." Richard Cowan contributed additional reporting; Chris Reese, David Gregorio and Chris Reese edited the article.
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Texas oilfield accident kills one and injures two
On Monday, ProPetro Services conducted fracking at a Permian Resources Corporation well site in Texas. One man died and two other people were injured. Edward Rodriguez, 45 years old, died when a pressured device ruptured. Two other workers were taken to hospital. According to a Reeves County Sheriff's Office statement, ProPetro has shut down its fracking operation and turned off the power in the area during a safety inspection. ProPetro released a statement confirming the incident and stating that the company is working with relevant authorities to determine what caused the incident. Permian Resources Corp has not responded to a comment request. The Sheriff's Office Criminal Investigation Division investigators determined that the incident was caused by a pressurized pipe containing approximately 9,000 pounds per sq. inch. Investigators found a pipe with two valves on both ends that had been disconnected in the incident. Sheriff's Office did not find any evidence of criminal activity. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is investigating this incident. (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio, Lisa Shumaker, and Georgina McCartney from Houston)
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One dead and two injured in fatal Texas oilfield accident
On Monday, ProPetro Services conducted fracking at a Permian Resources Corporation well site in Texas. One man died and two other people were injured. Edward Rodriguez, 45 years old, died when a pressured device ruptured. Two other workers were taken to hospital. According to a Reeves County Sheriff's Office statement, ProPetro has shut down its fracking operation and turned off the power in the area during a safety investigation. ProPetro and Permian Resources Corp have not responded to requests for comment. The Sheriff's Office Criminal Investigation Division investigators determined that the incident was caused by a pressurized pipe containing approximately 9,000 pounds per sq inch. Investigators found a pipe with two valves on both ends that had been disconnected in the incident. At the time of the investigation, no foul play was suspected. OSHA is still investigating. (Reporting from Georgina McCartney, Houston; Editing and proofreading by David Gregorio).
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Coffee prices soar to new records above $3.60 a lb
The global arabica coffee price hit a record high of $3.60 lb per pound on Wednesday, as Brazil, the world's biggest producer, had few beans left to be sold and as concerns over Brazil's upcoming harvest continued. Dealers reported that 70%-80% the current harvest of arabica beans from Brazil has been sold, and new trades have been slow. Brazil produces almost half of the world's arabica bean, which is a high-end type that is typically used for roasting and grinding blends. After a severe drought in the past year, recent weather conditions have been better. According to the Brazilian food agency, the crop for the next year will still be 4.4% less than the last. The global coffee supply remains limited. Vietnam's robusta crop is selling slowly. "The arabica from Central America and Colombia takes longer to reach the market and Brazilian farmers are not interested in selling more," broker HedgePoint said on Wednesday. Arabica coffee futures traded on the ICE, a global contract for pricing physical coffee, reached a record-high of $3.6945 a lb. This brought the gains in the past year to nearly 15%. The contract closed at $3.6655, up 2.5%. The price of Robusta, a cheaper variety that is used mainly to make instant coffees, increased by 0.9% to $5,609 per metric ton. India's coffee exports, the fifth largest producer of robusta in the world, are expected decline by more than 10% between 2025 and 2035 due to reduced production and lower carry-forward stock from last season's harvest. Dealers say that farmers in India and Vietnam - the top two producers of robusta in the world - are holding sales back in anticipation of future price increases. In Brazil, 80-90% or the current harvest is sold. Broker Sucden stated in a recent report that Brazilian farmers also prioritize local sales over exports at dollar prices, even though they bring more money. Their financial situation has significantly improved over the last two years. The country's buffer stock has been reduced to 500,000 bags, compared with 8 million bags in the past. This means that any further weather disruptions will have a large impact on coffee prices globally. Sucden reports that the global coffee market has recorded a fourth consecutive deficit in this season. Other soft commodities were also traded. Raw sugar rose 1.1% to 19.45 cents per lb, a strong rebound from the five-month low last week. White sugar gained 2.2% at $522.90 a ton. Raw sugar? New York cocoa futures rose 3.3% to $11,745 per ton. London cocoa gained just 1.6%, to 9,138 pounds. Reporting by Maytaal Angle and Marcelo Teixeira, Editing by ShounakDasgupta Richard Chang and Leslie Adler
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New report urges IEA away from energy transformation focus
According to the former director of the International Energy Agency, the International Energy Agency should rewrite its annual energy outlook in order to reflect the real-world, and not just to reinforce its current focus on global energy transformation. Former IEA oil director Neil Atkinson, and Mark Mills of the National Center for Energy Analytics (a think-tank) wrote the report, Energy Delusions. The authors claimed that it was aimed at influencing Donald Trump's new administration. Since more than 50 years, the Paris-based IEA provides research and data on energy supply, security and investment to industrialized countries. Trump's plan to boost the oil and gas industry by promoting the traditional fuels is at odds with the agency's focus on clean energy. Other oil producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, have also been angered by the agency. Atkinson's Report identifies 23 assumptions that were made by the agency, which led to a conclusion it says was flawed: that the global economy of oil would peak in 2030 and that no new investment in oil and gas is required. According to the report, the IEA overestimates adoption of electric vehicles and underestimates the growth in emerging oil markets. The report stated that "the promotional aspirations, and flawed assumptions, underlying IEA’s peak-demand scenario, have serious implications given the obvious global security and economic considerations when planning and delivering affordable, reliable energy supplies." The IEA stated that the report contained "rudimentary mistakes" and "fundamental misunderstandings about energy systems in general, and IEA modeling in particular", and said it welcomes suggestions for improving the analysis. The report incorrectly implies that the IEA’s oil demand forecasts are outliers. In reality, they are in line with similar scenarios from other organisations including major oil companies, according to a statement by the agency. The IEA's focus has shifted in recent years from oil and gas to clean energy, as governments look for input on climate goals. This shift drew harsh criticism from Republicans on Capitol Hill, and Trump's presidential campaign identified climate change as a topic he would address if elected. Around a quarter is provided by the United States.
Donald Trump's Tariff Threats
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has issued numerous tariff threats since he returned to office. The tariffs range from broad to specific - such as a universal tax on imported goods - or targeted at certain sectors, countries, or regions.
Trump's trade-related threats have evolved over time. They range from small levies up to those exceeding 200%. This has left other countries and businesses unsure of what will happen next. Here's a list of Trump's threats related to trade.
BROAD TARIFF TREAKS
Trump's vision is based on a gradual rollout of tariffs that will apply to all U.S. imported goods. According to the Financial Times, Trump's newly confirmed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pushing for a 2.5% tariff that will increase each month.
Trump, however, has said that tariffs may be higher. In the past, tariffs were the primary source of U.S. taxes. However, they have been reduced to a small fraction in recent years. Economists claim that Trump's policies are inflationary, as businesses who import goods and pay tariffs will pass on the additional costs to consumers.
Global trading partners may impose counter-tariffs on U.S. products like energy, agricultural products, and machinery. This could lead to a trade conflict, creating uncertainty for investors and businesses.
THREATS TO SPECIFIC COUNTRIES
Trump's tariff proposals are aimed at several key trading partners.
MEXICO AND CANADA : Mexico and Canada were the two largest trading partners of the U.S. from 2024 to November. Trump said that he would consider imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico or Canada on February 1, citing the need to retaliate for migration and drug trafficking.
He didn't immediately impose tariffs, as he promised during his campaign. Canada exports primarily crude oil, other energy products and cars and car components as part of North American auto manufacturing. Mexico exports a variety of goods to the U.S., including industrial and automotive products.
CHINA: Trump has called a discussion he had with Chinese president Xi Jinping 'friendly,' but continues to threaten tariffs on China. In Trump's initial term, both countries were involved in a lengthy trade war which hurt their economies.
Trump has said that the EU, and other countries, have alarming trade surpluses. He said that the products of the other countries will be subject to tariffs, or he would demand that they purchase more oil and natural gas from the U.S. despite the fact that U.S. export capacity for gas is close to its limit.
RUSSIA: Trump threatened to hit Russia and "other participating countries" with tariffs, taxes and sanctions if an agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine was not reached soon.
INDIA/BRICS NATIONS During his election campaign, Trump called India a “very big abuser” on trade and vowed that tariffs would be used to correct imbalances in trade. He also threatened to impose tariffs on the BRICS nations if they refused to agree with his demand that they not create a currency.
COLOMBIA - Trump said he was going to impose 25% tariffs on Colombian products after that country refused to accept flights with migrants who were to be deported by the U.S. The two sides reached an agreement.
THREATS TO PRODUCTS
SEMICONDUCTORS : Trump said that he wanted to impose tariffs against imported computer chips. He pointed to Taiwan where Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's biggest contract chipmaker, produces semiconductors for Nvidia and Apple, among other U.S. customers. TSMC will generate 70% of its revenue by 2024, from North American customers.
Trump has proposed tariffs on pharmaceutical products, including medicines. This would be a significant change. In the past few decades, pharmaceuticals were generally exempted from tariffs.
Trump said that he would also impose tariffs for aluminum, copper and steel - metals required to manufacture U.S. Military Hardware - to encourage producers to produce them in the United States. This could increase costs for automakers, and other manufacturers that use these raw materials. The U.S. imports about 38% of the copper it needs, and is heavily dependent on aluminum imports.
AUTOMOBILES: Trump has proposed 25% tariffs for imports from Canada or Mexico, and he's also suggested 100% or higher tariffs on some other vehicles. This could include EVs. In 2024, the automobile industry will account for more than $200 billion in imports from Canada and Mexico. (Reporting by Anjana Anil and Puyaan Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)
(source: Reuters)