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Iron ore prices rise despite Trump's tariff threats
Iron ore prices rose on Tuesday due to a resilient short-term demand from China, the world's largest consumer. However, caution caused by President Donald Trump’s threat of increased tariffs limited gains. After falling nearly 0.7% Monday, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended daytime trading 0.14% higher. As of 0700 GMT, the benchmark August iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was up 0.44% at $95.65 per ton. According to Mysteel, the near-term demand for iron ore was stable. This is reflected in the relatively high output of hot metal, which hovered around 2,41 million tons on July 3. That's an increase of 0.6% annually. Iron ore demand is usually gauged by the hot metal production levels. Analysts have noted that this has led to a price increase for the main steelmaking ingredient. Mysteel data also showed that portside iron ore inventories fell 0.4% in the previous week to 144.04 millions tons on July 7. The resumption of trade tensions around the world has limited price increases. Trump began Monday telling his trade partners, from major suppliers like Japan and South Korea down to minor ones, that the U.S. will be imposing sharply higher tariffs on August 1. This marks a new phase of the trade war Trump launched earlier this summer. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also advanced on the DCE. They both rose by 0.84% and 0.14 %, respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been moving sideways. Rebar fell 0.13%, while hot-rolled coils were down 0.06%. Wire rod was up 0.18%, and stainless steel gained 0.322%. The (steel market) focus has returned to the seasonally weak fundamentals, after the frenzy over promises of crackdowns on price wars receded," Zhuo Guqiu said. Analyst at Jinrui Futures. The downside is likely to be limited, as supply and demand are not in conflict at the moment. ($1 = 7.1716 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Janane Vekatraman, Rashmi aich and Janane Venkatraman)
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Dozens of people missing following floods along Nepal-China border
Officials said that over two dozen people were missing on Tuesday after heavy rains in Tibet, China triggered an avalanche in the Bhote Koshi River. The river flows through Nepal and China and washed away the "Friendship Bridge" which connects the two countries. At least 18 people have been reported missing in Nepal, while China's Xinhua News Agency said that 11 people had gone missing on the Chinese border. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, (NDRRMA), said on X that six Chinese workers and three officers were missing in Nepal. Eight electric cars and a small power plant were also damaged by the flood. Arjun Paudel is a senior official in the Rasuwa district. He said that the Chinese nationals who went missing were employed at the Inland Container Depot. It was being built with Chinese assistance, about 80 km north of Kathmandu. He said: "The river washed away some containers containing goods imported from China...There has been a large loss (of property), and we are gathering details." Raja Ram Basnet, a spokesperson for the Nepal Army, said that 11 people had been rescued and that search and rescue efforts were still ongoing. China has increased its investment in Nepal over the past few years, including in areas such as roads, hospitals, and power plants. Over the past few days, China has suffered from heavy rains and flash floods, which have caused a trail destruction. A tropical storm is expected to hit this week. The National Disaster Management Authority in Pakistan (NDMA) announced on Tuesday that at least 79 Pakistanis, including 38 kids, had died as a result of floods, rain-related incidents such as landslides, and collapsed houses, since 26 June. Authorities have issued new alerts regarding flash flooding and glacial outbursts, citing "a significant increase in temperatures and...an upcoming weather system." NDMA spokesperson Sophia Siddiqui said that Gilgit-Baltistan’s northern Chilas District recorded the highest temperatures in Pakistan at 48.5 degrees Celsius on Saturday. This beats its previous record of 47.7 deg Celsius (118degF), reported in July 1997.
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Bousso: Saudi Arabia plays short-term and long-term with OPEC+ Production Gamble
OPEC+ will increase its output target by 2,5 million bpd from April to September Saudi Arabia has large spare production, while other countries are producing at capacity Riyadh’s share of the global oil production fell to 11% by 2024, from 13% Ron Bousso LONDON, 7th July - Saudi Arabia’s desire to increase OPEC+ output rapidly may place Riyadh at the forefront of regaining market share while also consolidating its dominance on the long-term. Eight major oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates as well as Kuwait, Oman, Iraq and Kazakhstan, decided on Saturday to boost their joint production in August by 548,000 barrels a day. This will accelerate the unwinding from a series of cuts that totaled 2,17 million bpd, which began in April. By the end of September, OPEC+'s output will have likely increased by 2.5 million bpd. This is due to the combination of the accelerated schedule with the UAE's agreed increase of 300,000. The new quotas won't actually result in a drastic change to the aggregate output of the group, since most members already produce at or above these levels. Saudi Arabia has been irritated by Kazakhstan's failure to meet OPEC+ targets for several months. Central Asia produced 1,88 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, which was the same as its all-time record in March, and far exceeded its production target for August of 1,53 million bpd. According to estimates, the eight OPEC+ countries produced a total of 32 million bpd compared to a quota set at 31.38 millions bpd. Unwinding production cuts means catching up to the reality of the situation on the ground. Saudi Arabia is the de-facto leader in OPEC+, and also the top oil exporter in the world. By making this move, it will be able to reestablish the discipline within the group, and increase its share of the market. SECURE CAPACITY According to the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy, Saudi Arabia's share of the global oil production is expected to decline from 13% in the last three decades to just 11% by 2024. According to Kpler, crude oil exports from the country will account for only 15% in 2024 of the global seaborne exports, down from 18% on average in the last decade. According to the International Monetary Fund, oil and gas revenues will contribute 22.3% to the country's GDP in 2024. Saudi Arabia is fortunate to have a large amount of oil production capacity that has not been tapped. Keshav Lohiya of Oilytics, the founder of a consultancy, said that data from Petro-Logistics showed that the country produced 9.55 million barrels per day in June. The OPEC+ agreement allows for an additional 200,000 bpd in production through August. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, it also has a buffer of production that is nearly 3 million BPD. It can tap this within 90 days. Saudi Arabia, and only the UAE, is the only OPEC+ member that has the potential to increase its production substantially in the next quarter. Price War The addition of additional production will put downward pressure on crude oil prices. They have already fallen 15% to less than $70 a barrel this year, largely because OPEC unwinded its initial supply cuts and due to concerns about demand resulting from President Donald Trump’s trade war. Saudi Arabia could benefit from falling prices because both OPEC+ members and non-OPEC+ members are likely to cut back on spending when prices fall. This means that Riyadh, with its abundant spare capacity and low costs of production, will be in a better position than its competitors to meet the new demand. Recent price drops have already made a significant impact on U.S. producers of shale oils. Energy Information Administration predicts that U.S. oil production will decline from a record high of 13.5 millions bpd during the second quarter this year, to 13.3 million in the fourth quarter 2026. This is the first decrease since the production surge at the end last decade. Riyadh may decide to accelerate OPEC+ in the months ahead to increase its own production and put more pressure on its competitors. LONG GAME Saudi Arabia is ultimately a long-term gamble. The impact of Riyadh’s move on the rest industry may not be felt for some time. It will take many years for the slowdown in investment to be translated into lower production. According to IEA estimates, the global supply is expected to increase by 1.6 millions bpd, to an average 104.6 million bpd, and 970,000 bpd more next year. This will outpace the anticipated growth in demand during this period. According to the IEA, the majority of supply growth will be driven by non OPEC+ producers, such as the United States and other countries like Brazil, Argentina, Guyana, Canada, and Guyana. These forecasts were the exact reason why Saudi Arabia needed to act to maintain its market dominance on the long-term. Riyadh's gamble could pay off, given the current market dynamics. Oil producers are reluctant to invest heavily in new production because of low prices and the uncertainty surrounding global demand for energy. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your essential source for global commentary on financial markets. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
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Austrian OMV gains $141 million in profits from Borouge and Borealis merger during Q2
The Austrian energy company OMV said that the Borouge-Borealis merge will have a positive impact of 120 million euro ($140.8) on its operating result for the second quarter before special effects. This was part of an update to trading on Tuesday. After almost two years of negotiation, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and OMV decided in March to combine their polyolefin business to create Borouge Group, a chemicals powerhouse with a $60 Billion enterprise value. OMV said that it also expected to take a 400-million-euro hit on its operating cash flow adjusted from Romania and Norway, compared with the first quarter. The report added that "in the second quarter 2025, it is expected that net working capital effects will be positive and amount to a low triple-digit million-euro amount." OMV reported lower average energy costs in the second quarter. Average natural gas prices dropped by 23% on a quarter-on quarter basis, and average realized crude prices declined by 9% to $66.2 a barrel. $1 = 0.8521 Euros (reporting by Tristan Veyet in Gdansk and Isabel Demetz, edited by Milla Nissi Prussak).
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Sources: Next Rio Tinto boss to cut costs and make big deals.
Rio Tinto's next CEO, who may be named as early as this month by the company, should be open for mergers and acquisitions that are transformative, as well as for cost-cutting and productivity improvements. After announcing in May that Jakob Stausholm was stepping down after four and a half years, the world's largest iron ore mining company is now in the final stages of selecting a new CEO through an internal search and an external search. Two other sources familiarized with the search process said that the finalist for the top position will present their case to the board this week in London. A decision could be made as early as the end of July. The timing of board presentations and Chair Dominic Barton’s preference that the new CEO be open to large deals, as well as his preference for the CEO to have a positive attitude towards them, were not previously reported. According to a report in May, internal candidates include Bold Baatar (chief commercial officer) and Simon Trott (chief executive of the iron ore division). A fifth source said that Chief Technical Officer Mark Davies was also a possible candidate. All sources spoke under condition of anonymity, as the search is confidential. Rio, who is due to announce its half-year results July 30, has declined to comment. Barton Trott Baatar Pecresse Davies have not responded to requests for comments. Barton met with stakeholders after Stausholm announced his departure to discuss this abrupt change of guard. Two people who were privy to Barton's discussions about his priorities for a new CEO revealed that he had floated the idea of a "big ticket M&A", with another mining giant, if enough value could be found. According to a source with knowledge of the matter, Glencore approached Rio about a possible asset combination in 2013. However, talks ended abruptly due to Stausholm's pushback. Analysts have suggested that a tie up with Canada's Teck Resources might be more suitable. A new CEO must walk a thin line between cost discipline, and repositioning a miner to a dramatic shift to copper. Copper is expected to become in high demand because of the energy transition. The two people Barton briefed said that the company has acknowledged the fact that its internal costs are excessive, including staffing. It needs a CEO to better manage these costs. Financial results reveal that from 2020 to 2024 costs at Rio increased by 46.5% faster than BHP and Anglo American. This means a new boss must be disciplined in capital allocation. RBC Capital Markets estimates that Rio will spend $30 to $35 billion over the next decade on capital expenditures, including $8 to $9 billion for lithium projects following Stausholm's May acquisition of two new lithium projects in Chile. Kaan Peker, an analyst at RBC, said: "Jakob had previously stated that they were going to be aggressive on lithium. But I wouldn't surprise if some lithium growth projects get pushed back a little in favour of Copper." Peker believes that any M&A is unlikely to happen in the near future because the new CEO would have to boost the share price of the company to get the best bang for the buck if it decides to use its shares to compete with another major miner. CONSTRAINTS According to a source familiar with the process of CEO search, the company has been discussing an internal hire. Analysts and investors have said that all the top contenders face constraints when it comes to a board that is concerned about operational excellence and cutting costs in particular. They added that it was uncertain whether a hire from within would be able to adequately address cultural issues, such as safety in Guinea or sexual harassment in Australia. Trott was responsible for the final ramp up of the Gudai Darri mine, which led to the second highest iron ore shipment in history by 2023. He also brought in new replacement projects. He also handled sensitive Aboriginal heritage matters after Rio damaged rock-shelters at Juukan Gorge, in 2020. Since Trott assumed the role of Rio in 2021 Rio has continued as the most expensive major Australian iron ore producers, its ore has decreased and it is currently guiding production to be in the lower half its expected range this year because of cyclones. It's been four tough years. "The business showed a turnaround in 2023, but it was a difficult hand because of Juukan Gorge as well as the weather," said Barrenjoey Analyst Glyn Lawcock. Baatar's concern is his relationship with the government, as he previously worked three years at Rio Copper, including the Oyu Tolgoi mine, in his native Mongolia. Stausholm announced in 2022 a reset for Mongolia, including a $2.4 billion debt waiver. Rio announced last month that it was forced to alter its mine plan because the government had delayed the transfer of the mining licence. Pecresse, a candidate who has led the Aluminium division to a 61% rise in EBITDA in 2024, is favored by some members of the board, according o ne source familiar with the process. He was a former leader of GE's renewable energies division. His departure from GE saw a significant expansion in the global presence of this unit, which had struggled to be profitable. Davies has been responsible for driving productivity improvements which could help cost-cutting initiatives. He led the smaller titanium and iron and marine arms of the company, but not its major operational divisions like other candidates. Analysts said that there is only a small chance of Rio hiring an outsider. Reports have previously mentioned that Newmont CEO Tom Palmer, and former Oz Minerals Chief Andrew Cole, are potential candidates. Investors have said that Sandfire Resources' CEO Brendan Harris could also be a candidate. Harris didn't respond to a comment request.
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Dollar gains on US tariffs; shares steady and oil drops
The Asian stock markets took the latest twist of President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on Tuesday in stride, while the dollar remained strong and oil fell. Wall Street shares fell after Trump sent a letter to 14 countries including Japan and South Korea revealing sharply increased tariffs on imported goods into the United States. He also delayed their implementation until August 1. Japan's Nikkei opened lower, but then turned positive when Trump said that the deadline was "firm but not 100% solid" and that tariffs could be adjusted for certain countries. The Aussie Dollar surged when the Reserve Bank of Australia held policy rates at their current level, as expected. Tapas Strickland is the head of market economy at National Australia Bank. He said that there was a muted reaction from the market to Trump's tariff announcements, as a result of Trump's swift reversal of his "Liberation Day", duties originally set out on 2 April. Strickland told a NAB podcast that "there's going be a lot volatility" as headlines begin to appear, more letters are released, and the negotiation process really comes to the forefront before the August 1 deadline. Trump set a 10% cap on all so-called reciprocal trade tariffs until the 9th of July to allow time for negotiations. Two agreements have been made, with Britain, and Vietnam. Washington and Beijing reached an agreement in June on a framework for tariff rates. This restored a fragile truce to their trade war. Tariffs for Japan and South Korea will now increase to 25% by August 1. The Japanese prime minister Shigeru Shiba described the increase as deeply regrettable, and stated that his country would continue to negotiate with the U.S. Thailand’s finance ministry Pichai Chunhavajira revealed his country was preparing a backup plan to deal the 36% tariff on its exports. EU sources informed on Monday that the European Union would not receive a letter outlining higher tariffs. After a "good conversation" between Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, a spokesperson for the commission said that the EU is still hoping to reach a deal on trade by Wednesday. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan increased by 0.3%. Japan's Nikkei index rose 0.4% while South Korea's KOSPI increased 1.5%. After reaching a new two-week high, the dollar gained 0.1% at 145.88yen. The euro increased by 0.3% to $1.1744. The Australian dollar increased by 0.8% to $0.6541. The RBA kept its cash rate at 3.85%. This was a surprise to markets who had confidently priced a reduction. They said that the majority of board members wanted to wait until more information could be confirmed to confirm the inflation slowdown. U.S. crude oil fell 0.5% to $66.71 a barrel, after surging almost 2% on Sunday. Spot gold fell 0.2%. Euro Stoxx futures in the pan-region were down by 0.2%. German DAX was also down by 0.2%. FTSE futures fell 0.4%. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong, Sonali Paul and Rocky Swift)
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Australia's central Bank keeps rates at 3.85% and stuns the markets
The central bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 3.85% on Tuesday, shocking markets that had confidently bet on a reduction. It said the majority wanted to wait until more information was available to confirm the inflation slowdown. The Australian dollar rose 0.8% to $0.6545 while the three-year bond contract extended previous losses by falling 13 ticks to 96.5. The Reserve Bank of Australia, which concluded a two-day meeting on policy, said that it was cautious about the outlook for inflation. Six members voted in favor of keeping rates the same, while three others voted against. This is a rare split vote by the board. The markets had almost fully priced in an easing of the RBA to 3.60%, given that core inflation has slowed down to the midpoint of its 2%-3% target range. Consumer spending is also proving to be weaker than anticipated. The board stated that they could wait until more information was available to confirm the inflation rate is still on track to achieve 2,5% on a sustainable base. It noted that the monetary policy was well placed to respond to international developments, if they had material implications for Australian activity and inflation. On Monday, Donald Trump escalated his global trade war by telling trading partners such as Japan and South Korea higher U.S. duties would begin on August 1. However, there were opportunities for further negotiations. The RBA reduced interest rates twice in February and once in May. However, the cuts did not have much of an impact on consumer spending despite driving housing prices to new records. A stubbornly frugal customer is the reason why the economy barely grew during the first quarter. Retail sales data suggest that households are saving instead of spending tax cuts. In May, the closely watched trimmed average measure of inflation hit 2.4%. This was a three-and-a half year low. It also fell below the target range of 2-3%. Many economists shifted their call for a rate cut to July, from August. However, the labour market remained resilient. This is why it's not a good idea for RBA to rush into stimulatory policies. Since over a year, the unemployment rate has been at 4,1%. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam.
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Oil prices ease as traders evaluate US tariffs and OPEC+ production hike
Investors retreated from oil prices on Tuesday, after a nearly 2% rise in the previous session. They were assessing new developments regarding U.S. Tariffs and a larger-than-expected OPEC+ production increase for August. Brent crude futures fell 22 cents or 0.3% to $69.36 per barrel at 0330 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 27 cents or 0.4% to $67.66 per barrel. U.S. president Donald Trump began Monday telling U.S. trade partners, including major suppliers South Korea, Japan, as well as smaller U.S. Exporters such as Serbia, Thailand, and Tunisia that the U.S. will begin imposing sharply higher tariffs on August 1. He later clarified that this deadline is not 100% certain. Trump's tariffs have caused uncertainty on the market, and there are concerns that they could negatively impact the global economy, and therefore, oil demand. There are signs that demand is still strong, especially in the U.S. Last week, AAA data showed that a record number of Americans (72,2 million) were expected to travel over 50 miles (80 kilometers) during their Fourth of July holidays. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission published data on Monday that showed money managers increased their net-long positions in futures and options contracts for crude oil in the week leading up to July 1. Seasonal factors continue to support a healthy prompt demand. It remains to be seen if the forward demand can continue to absorb OPEC+'s larger than expected supply. India, the third largest oil consumer in the world, also showed signs of increased demand. government data Reporting fuel consumption was 1.9% more than it was a year earlier in June. On Saturday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels a day in August. This is a higher rate than the 411,000 bpd they increased for the previous three months. This decision eliminates almost all the voluntary reductions of 2.2 million bpd that the group made. Five sources with knowledge of the situation say that they are likely to approve a 550,000-bpd increase for September at their meeting on August 3. This would undo all the cuts. Analysts said that the actual increase in production has been less than what was announced and the majority of the supply comes from Saudi Arabia. (Reporting from Stephanie Kelly in New York, and Jeslyne Lerh in Singapore. Editing by Christian Schmollinger).
LMEWEEK-Aluminium costs under pressure, however brighter prospects on the horizon
Weak international manufacturing has hit aluminium prices, however the effect is most likely to be shortlived as the physical market is tight, including in top consumer China.
A deficit in top manufacturer China - anticipated to produce 42.5 million metric heaps, near to its 45 million ton capacity - and brief products of feedstocks bauxite and alumina are anticipated to push aluminium rates back on an upward trajectory.
Costs of the metal utilized in the transportation, building and packaging markets at around $2,520 a heap on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have actually dropped 10% since striking two-year highs of $2,799 last month.
The only area doing fine is demand for product packaging with events like football games and Paris Olympics, stated Uday Patel, senior research manager of aluminium at Wood Mackenzie.
Patel anticipates a surplus of half a million lots of primary aluminium globally, and aluminium costs to average $2,450 a heap this year.
However he added that U.S. and UK bans on delivering Russian metals to exchanges and logistics difficulties due to the Red Sea shipping crisis could tighten up supply.
Other analysts are more bullish, anticipating a deficit for this year - a view reflected in physical market premiums paid above the LME benchmark rates to account for expenses including transport and import taxes.
Duty-paid premiums for aluminium on the spot market in the United States at around $440 a load are up 10% considering that late March, while those in Europe have actually leapt 30% to around $ 340 a heap over the exact same duration.
Premiums in major ex-China usage regions showed faster development, recommending ongoing improvements in physical markets, Macquarie experts stated in a note.
Macquarie anticipates international aluminium production at around 72 million loads and a deficit of 960,000 loads this year. It anticipates a 2024 deficit of 2.26 million loads in China.
Shortages are most likely to see an extension of the upward trend in Chinese imports, which in May rose more than 60% from a. year earlier to 310,000 heaps, much of them of Russian-origin and. under U.S. sanctions.
China imported 562,186 tons of primary aluminium from Russia. in January-May, 70.5% more than the same period last year.
While upside is limited near-term, the aluminium market. remains tight and when demand re-accelerates, (LME) rates. ought to press greater once again, stated Bank of America analyst Michael. Widmer.
Widmer anticipates prices to average $3,000 a ton and a deficit. of 2.1 million heaps next year. For this year, his projections are. for costs to typical $2,500 and a shortfall of 800,000 tons.
(source: Reuters)