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Oil prices fall as US-Iran optimism about peace lowers gold prices
Gold prices rose by nearly 1% on Monday after recovering from a?an over one-week-low hit the previous session. Progress in U.S. Iran peace talks weighed down on oil and tempered inflation concerns. By 10:00 am, spot gold had risen 0.9% to $4199.07 an ounce. ET (1400 GMT). On Friday, prices reached their lowest level since June 11. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell by 0.7%, to $4216.30 an ounce. Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank, said that energy prices would remain a major short-term factor for the precious metals space. Hansen said that the "bumpy" talks between the U.S., Iran and Switzerland are still leading towards a deal which would add new barrels of oil to the market and put pressure on the crude prices. This in turn would help gold and increase the price. U.S. officials and Iranian delegates are reported to have made "encouraging" progress in their first round of discussions that ended on Monday morning. However, tensions remain over Lebanon and Strait of Hormuz, according to mediators. Brent crude futures dropped more than 3% following the announcement. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders see an 89% probability of a rate increase in December. This is up from 61% prior to the Federal Reserve meeting last week. Nine out of 19 Fed policymakers think they will need to increase the policy rate in this year. Gold tends to lose its appeal as interest rates increase, as it is less attractive than interest-bearing assets. In a Friday note, Bank of 'America stated that the $6,000 per ounce gold price target is unlikely as it would require the market to fully price in rate increases for this level to be reached. The original premise that 'underlies the bank’s bullish call on gold -- an unorthodox 'U.S. macro policy?-- remains intact. It added that the macro-policy remains unchanged. Silver spot rose by 2.4% at $66.46 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.7%, reaching $1,691.54, while palladium was up just 1%, at $1,271.25. Reporting by Sukanya Mittra and Ashitha Shivprasad, Bengaluru. Editing by Leroy Leo
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India's central banks sold gold for $8.9 billion, but its holdings remained unchanged.
?The Reserve Bank of India shifted a total of $8.94 billion on the 'foreign exchange markets in 'April, according to data released Monday.?It was doing this to help support the rupee, which had fallen to record lows during the U.S. - Iran war. In its monthly bulletin, the RBI reported that it had purchased $16.23 Billion and sold $25.17 Billion in April. The central bank sold a total of $9.8 billion in March. Data showed that the volume of gold held by the central bank remained unchanged at 880.52 tonnes in May, while its value dropped from $120.23billion late April to $112.6billion last month. Last month, the Indian rupee fell to a new record low of 96.96 per dollar as rising oil prices and global bond yields hammered the South Asian unit. The RBI intervened repeatedly to support the currency. As of the end of April, the RBI's outstanding net forward dollar sales were $95.30 billion, down from $103.06 billion at end-March. The RBI has refuted a report that appeared in the media earlier this month, which suggested the central bank may have sold a portion of its gold reserves. Data showed that the physical stock of gold has not changed since April. The 'backdrop for rupee has improved following a salvo policy measures announced earlier in the month to'shore up dollar inflows in the economy and a sharp decline in oil prices due to signs of progress in U.S.Iran negotiations. The rupee closed Monday at 94.6775 per dollar, down 0.4%. The latest data shows that India's foreign exchange reserves have fallen to $671.6 billion - a record low for more than a year. This is due to the central bank's attempts to defend its embattled currency. (Reporting and editing by Jaspreet K. Kalra, Nishit N. Navin)
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US approves Iranian oil sale amid final peace talks
The U.S. Treasury Department approved the production, sale and delivery of Iranian oil on Monday. This was a promise made by Washington and Tehran in an agreement last week. The general license announced by the two sides as they continue their talks to reach a final agreement on peace allows for the production, sale and delivery of crude oil, petrochemicals and petroleum products with Iranian origin through August 21. In a recent post on X, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Iran had 'committed' to allowing free and open passage through the Strait of Hormuz as well as allowing?International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to enter their country. As part of this framework, Treasury issued a temporary general license for 60 days authorizing production, delivery and sale of Iranian crude oil. The United States has agreed to waive the restrictions on the export of Iranian crude, petroleum products, derivatives and services such as banking, insurance and transportation. The general license issued on Monday allows for the importation of Iranian crude oil, petrochemicals and petroleum products to the United States. The license states that Iranian oil may be imported to the United States as part of the waiver if?necessary? for its sale or delivery. It does not allow?transactions with North Korea or Cuba - countries that are heavily sanctioned in the United States. (Reporting and editing by Doina chiacu, Susan Heavey, Katharine Jackson and Daphne Psaledakis)
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Gazprom shares fall to lowest level since 2009
Gazprom shares fell below 100 roubles ($1.35) for the first time since 2009 on Monday, according to data from the Moscow Exchange. Gazprom shares have been hit by a number of factors, including Europe's decision not to buy Russian energy due to the conflict in Ukraine, the decline in oil prices as a result of progress made between the United States, Iran and the United Nations, as well as the failure to sign a new deal for gas with China. Analysts claim that the 'drone attack' on an oil refinery in Moscow, owned by Gazprom neft (the oil arm of Gazprom), last week also affected the public's opinion towards the company. It hasn’t paid dividends for the past few years. Gazprom shares fell 3.67% on the previous day, to '100.65 Roubles.' They had previously touched 99.9 Roubles. Gazprom’s current market value is 2.382 trillion roubles (about 32.15 billion dollars), which is a far cry from the $1 trillion that was promised by the management in 2008.
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UK Minister says EU steel talks may go to the wire
The UK's Industry Minister said on Monday that talks with the EU over steel could be pushed to the wire as Britain faces a?end-of-month deadline for replacing its import protections. He apologized to businesses for the uncertainty. The?trade?rules of Britain, which date back to before Brexit, will expire on 30 June. London has said that the rules will be replaced by a new measure which will reduce the amount of steel imported without tariff and double the duty on any imports that exceed that quota. Details of the measure have not been finalised yet, but there are discussions?about the market access with the European Union. The EU is renewing its steel trading measures amid concerns over dumping, before they expire on the 31st next month. Chris McDonald, the industry minister, said that EU negotiations tend to "go to the wire." He added that they are "confident" that we will be able to reach an agreement in time. I can only apologize to the businesses that find it difficult to plan ahead... but they will have to finish before July 1. British ministers had previously stated that Britain and EU should be able?to agree mutually beneficial exceptions to each others' measures. McDonald, a junior Minister in the Department of Business and Trade said that there was "no chance" of changing the date of July 1. If?Britain did not take action, "the UK would become the global dump for subsidised Steel, which will wipe out our industry 'in very short time. Britain, the EU, and others are moving to protect domestic producers of steel as they express concern about the "dumping" high subsidised steel from countries such as China. McDonald claimed he was sending a message of "continuity" and "certainty" to businesses, despite the chaos caused by Keir's earlier announcement of a timeline for his resignation. (Reporting and editing by Peter Graff. Additional reporting by Sam Tabahriti.
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Arcosa to be acquired by CRH in an all-cash $8.5 billion deal
CRH, a building materials company based in Ireland, announced on Monday that it will acquire Arcosa of the United States in a cash-only deal worth $8.5 billion. This acquisition will strengthen CRH's position in North America. CRH has offered $150 per share, which is a premium of 10.4% over Arcosa’s previous closing price. In premarket trading, shares of the Dallas-based company rose by 7.5% to $146. Jim Mintern, CEO of CRH, said that the deal enables CRH to take advantage of rising demand in U.S. utility and energy infrastructure. Arcosa is a large manufacturer of energy transmission equipment in the U.S., with its Engineered Structures division. The deal for Arcosa is expected to be closed in the first quarter of 2027. This deal adds to the surge in dealmaking that has been taking place in the U.S. construction-products sector as firms look to scale and localized supply chain to reduce tariffs. Demand is boosted by new housing construction and repairs, and renovations. QXO has struck a $17billion deal with TopBuild, a building products distributor. Commercial Metals Company acquired concrete supplier Foley Products last year for $1.84billion. CRH has been a dealmaker for the last two years, spending $9.1 billion, mainly on smaller acquisitions. The largest deal in the company's history was a EUR6.5 billion ($7.44billion) purchase of cement assets from European rivals Holcim & Lafarge that they had to sell before their merger. This transaction transformed?the Dublin based company into a larger player. CRH stated that it 'expects run rate cost synergies to reach $175 million in year three, and the deal will be accretive for?earnings? within the first twelve months after completion. J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Evercore are acting as financial advisers for CRH. Goldman Sachs and Evercore are financial advisors for Arcosa. (Reporting from AnshumanTripathy in Bengaluru, and PadriacHalpin in Dublin. Editing by TasimZahid.)
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Metal prices boosted by hope for US-Iran agreement
Prices of industrial metals rose on Monday due to optimism that the initial U.S. - Iran talks may pave a way for a peace deal. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange traded 1.2% higher, at $13,760 per metric ton. The price of copper, which investors use as a measure of economic health, has increased by more than 15 percent since March 23. Mediators said that U.S. officials and Iranian officials had made "encouraging" progress in agreeing on a 60-day timeline to end the war. Toutefois, tensions?persisted?over Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz?after Tehran once again closed the waterway?and?U.S. Donald Trump has threatened new attacks. Tom Price, Panmure Liberum analyst, said: "The market desperately wants to believe that the U.S. - Iran?war has ended and is busy trying to price this in... but it's the truth that this ceasefire doesn't?look robust." "We have definitely entered a period?where the markets are trying to revert to pre-war conditions. Investors are once again looking to the themes of pre-war copper." The copper prices have been driven up in recent years by the forecasts for strong growth of demand from data centres required for AI, grid investments and electric vehicles. Aluminium prices are expected to be further pressured by the Middle East's 9% global smelting capability. Aluminum prices have fallen 10% since early June, when fears of Middle East supply and global shortages peaked. The LME cash contract premium over the 3-month forwards is decreasing, which shows that concerns are easing about the?aluminium supply. After?peaking at 19-year highs over $104 per ton on 1 June,?it's now around $10 per ton. Reduced oil prices will reduce the production costs of aluminium and zinc. Both are energy-intensive metals. This, say traders, will weaken the price support, turning it into a negative factor. Aluminium rose 0.2% at $3,405 per ton. Zinc gained 1.5%, while lead firmed up 0.1%, reaching $1,956. Tin climbed 3.3%, to $55,050, and nickel rose by 1.2%, to $17.775.
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Oil prices fall as Iran peace talks advance
After mediators announced that 'progress' had been made in U.S. - Iran?peace?talks, they helped calm fears of the fragile process to end?the?war? slipping. The pound and UK bond prices rose as Prime Minister Keir starmer announced his resignation. This paved the way for Britain to elect its seventh leader in ten years. Iran's war talks were overshadowed earlier by Tehran's announcement that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz again, which prompted U.S. president Donald Trump to issue a new threat. Qatari and Pakistani officials said that progress had been made in a roadmap for a final deal to be reached within 60 days. JD Vance of the United States Vice President confirmed this, saying that Tehran has agreed to allow inspections. Brent crude futures lost their early gains and fell 1.8% to $79.07 per barrel, a far cry from the peak in May of $126.41. The S&P500 futures in the U.S. have pared their early losses and are now trading 0.1% lower. Susannah Streeter is the chief investment strategist for Wealth Club. She said that there appeared to be progress in the Iran talks towards a "lasting settlement". Oil prices had also dropped. "It is clear that there is still a?long?way to?go, and more obstacles could emerge before a?long-term?deal is signed." The apparent progress of the peace talks has boosted Asian stocks overnight. Japan's Nikkei gained 1.6% while South Korea's hot market rose 0.7% after a surge of more than 11% on demand for semiconductors stocks last week. UK OUTLOOK STARMER RESIGNATION CLOUDS The pound recovered from earlier losses and traded flat at $1.324, while gilts increased on Monday, after Starmer announced that he was resigning. This had been widely reported over the weekend. Andy Burnham, the former Manchester mayor, is expected to be Starmer's successor. However investors believe that the key question on nervous UK bond markets will be who will become finance minister. Nick Rees of Monex Europe, the head of macro-research, said that a new leader would not change fundamentally the fiscal crisis they were going to inherit. The euro fell 0.15%, to $1.146 after reaching a three-month high on Friday at $1.1418. Treasuries remain under pressure after a hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve in last week's meeting, which led to markets pricing in a 75% probability of a rate increase as early as September. Futures suggest that the Fed will tighten by 38 basis points before year's end, and yields on 2-year bonds have risen as much as 4 basis point to their highest level since early 2025. Fabio Bassi is the head of JPMorgan's cross-asset strategy. He said: "Our baseline calls for patience, and a first increase in inflation during the second half 2027. (We) believe that the margin of error and tolerance for further inflation are limited. There is a genuine risk of an earlier?hike." The Fed's hawkish view helped push the dollar 0.3% higher to 161.71yen. Only the threat of Japanese interference prevented the currency from reaching its 40-year high 161.96 in 2024. (Reporting from Sydney by Wayne Cole and Harry Robertson; editing by Kate Mayberry Aidan Lewis, and Susan Fenton).
Gold retorts on encouraging US-Iran Peace Talks
Gold rebounded Monday, ending a three-session loss streak, supported by a fall in Brent crude oil on the back of positive progress in U.S. Iran talks. Investors were also on edge due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position.
After falling to its lowest levels since June 11, spot gold rose 1.2% by 1205 GMT. U.S. Gold Futures?for August Delivery fell by 0.4% to $4228.30.
Ross Norman, an independent analyst, said that gold may benefit from hot money flowing out of oil and into gold.
Press TV reported that progress had been made by a spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, according to Iran's Press TV.
Negotiations follow a memorandum last week extending a fragile "ceasefire" agreed in April by at least 60-days.
Brent crude futures fell by nearly 2% on the news.
The spike in oil prices due to the war has increased inflation fears and strengthened the case of higher interest rates which usually dent the appeal of gold.
Norman said it is too early to predict a gold turnaround, especially with the Fed's hawkish outlook.
Kevin Warsh, the U.S. Federal Reserve chair, struck a firm note on inflation last weekend. He offered little clarity as to what conditions could delay an increase in interest rates. His remarks confirmed market expectations of a rate increase 'in the near-term.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see an 89% probability of a rate hike in December. This is down from 61% prior to the Fed meeting.
Morgan Stanley stated in a Friday note that "we retain an upside bias but $5,200 per ounce for the'second half of 2026 looks more dependent on ETF buying. There is also evidence to suggest that lower oil prices are feeding into the rate outlook."
The British pound also remained firm after Prime Minister Keir starmer announced his resignation.
Silver spot rose by 2.5%, to $66.51/ounce. Platinum gained 1.5%, to $1689.02; and palladium increased 0.9%, to $1269.08. Reporting by Sumit and Ashitha in Bengaluru, Editing by Sharon Singleton & David Goodton
(source: Reuters)