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ASIA GOLD - India gold demand rises as prices fall; China premiums are reduced
The demand for gold in India increased slightly this week, as jewellery buyers were attracted by lower prices, despite caution. In China however, premiums eased. The price of gold in India fell to its lowest level since April 2, at 146.444 rupees for 10 grams, on Thursday. It is down 1.5% this week. Chanda Venkatesh said that the demand for gold increased after the recent price correction, especially jewellery buyers. Dealers quoted discounts Discounts of up to $35 per ounce, including 15% import duties and 3% sales taxes, compared to last week's discount of up to $87.5. Although jewellers are restocking their shelves, the confidence in retail sales for the coming months is still low, according to a Mumbai bullion dealer working with a private banking institution. The South Asian country raised its import tariffs for gold and silver from 6% to 15% last month as part of an effort to reduce the pressure on foreign currency reserves due to higher oil prices. In May, India's physical gold exchange-traded fund saw its first monthly net outflow since a year. Investors booked profits after a sharp increase in prices that was triggered by higher import duties. Bullion is traded at a premium in China, the world's largest consumer. The premium for gold is now between $1 and $5 per ounce, down from $7-$10 last week. Peter Fung is the head of trading at Wing Fung Precious Metals. He said that "the $4,000 mark was a good level for support, and we can see some fresh interest in buying gold." On Thursday, spot gold reached a?lower than six months of $4,022.29 before closing higher. It is now on course to suffer a loss for the week. Data from the People's Bank of China revealed on Sunday that China's central banks gold reserves increased for a 19th consecutive month in May. In Hong Kong, gold In Japan, the price of the stock was between par and $1.90. It was sold for $0.50 less. In Singapore Gold was sold at a discount of $0.50 or a premium of $2. Reporting by Pablo Sinha, Bengaluru; and Rajendra Jadhav, Mumbai. Editing by Eileen Soreng.
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Oil hits two-month lows, stocks rally on Gulf breakthrough hope
The Asian stock market?extended its global rally on the hopes of a Middle East Peace Deal. Meanwhile, the dollar and bond yields fell and oil prices reached?two-month highs, easing inflation fears. European bourses will?open? sharply higher with pan-regional futures up by 1.8%. Wall Street futures are up about 0.2% on the back of a strong overnight rally. Elon Musk’s SpaceX has been the focus of attention as it makes history by launching the largest initial public offering ever. The IPO raised a new record of $75 billion. This valued the rocket and spacecraft maker at $1.77 trillion, making Musk the first trillionaire in the world. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that a deal for peace could be signed this weekend. This came after Trump had threatened to launch more attacks on Iran. He said that negotiations with Tehran were at the highest level of Iran's leaders and had been approved?by a broad coalition of regional power. Trump's comments follow several bouts of optimism by the president, which have not resulted in a deal. This has kept markets on edge. Iran said that in this case, too, it hadn't reached a decision about an agreement. Ray Attrill is the head of FX Strategy at National Australia Bank. If we hear anything from Iran that is positive, it's clear the odds of a peace agreement will change dramatically. If confirmed, the deal would be the biggest diplomatic breakthrough to date in ending the three-month war that sent energy prices soaring. On Thursday, the European Central Bank raised interest rates for nearly three years to curb inflation caused by war. Prices of oil fell to their lowest levels in two months amid expectations that an agreement would be reached soon. Brent crude futures fell 1.8% to $88.76 a barrel after falling nearly 3% over night. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 3.7%. This was led by the South Korean KOSPI, which jumped 7.8%. Japan's Nikkei rose 3.6%. Hong Kong's 'Hang Seng' gained 2%, while China's blue chip CSI300 rose by 1.5%. Wall Street surged overnight, with all three major indices posting their largest daily gains since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement on April 8th. The Nasdaq rose 2.5% on expectations of a successful market debut for Musk's SpaceX. Hugh Lam is an investment strategist with Betashares. He said that the early float could be exacerbated by near-term volatility because of a fixed price and a higher retail allocation than usual. Treasuries maintained gains, as markets reduced bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this year due to hopes of a Gulf peace deal. The price for an October rate hike has dropped from 51% to 36%. The yield on two-year Treasury bills was unchanged at 4,073%, after falling 6 basis points overnight. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields remained at 4.4690% after dropping almost 8 basis points (bps) overnight. After overnight losses, the?dollar stabilized. After a 0.4% decline in the previous session, it rose 0.2% to 160.20 yen. The yen is still close to 160, which many traders see as a level of resistance. Friday, precious metals fell. Gold spot fell 0.7%, to $4,183 per ounce after a 3.5% overnight jump, and silver spot also dropped 0.9%, to $66.72 per ounce following a 5.8% increase. Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam, and Kevin Buckland edited the report.
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Oil losses continue as Trump cancels planned strike on Iran
The oil price fell by over $1 on Friday, continuing the losses of the previous session. Donald Trump canceled plans to attack Iran, which reduced fears of an escalation in hostilities after tit-fortat attacks earlier this week. Brent futures dropped $1.83, or 2%, to $88.55 per barrel at 0410 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), however, fell $1.60 or 1.8% to $86.11. Trump, who threatened to hit Iran'very hard', called off planned attacks on Thursday. He said that discussions with Iran have?progressed, and a peace agreement could be signed this weekend to reopen Strait of Hormuz for shipping. Iran's semiofficial Fars News Agency reported that Tehran has not approved any agreement. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said: "This could be a false dawn but the market has reacted quickly and decisively." He said that even though oil prices are correcting downwards, as long as they can remain above the support level of the low $80s the risks will be firmly "skewed" to the upside. The Iranian government announced the "closure" of the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. This was a waterway through which traffic had been severely restricted. It said it would shoot at any vessel trying to cross the waterway. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about a fifth (or more) of the world's oil and gas shipments, and Tehran has been blocking it for months. This has kept energy costs high. The Iranian state media reported that Iranian forces had prevented a tanker without coordination from crossing the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Military said on social media commercial ships continue to transit the waterway. "We'd be careful about assuming the extension of the cessation is a done deal. Even if the ceasefire is extended, it may be fragile. In a note published on Friday, ING analysts said that if the nuclear talks?do not progress?, they could easily fall apart. We believe that the market will reach an inflection in late July, if oil flows do not resume before then. Inventory levels and a seasonally higher?demand will push the price of a barrel up to $120-130. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered on Thursday its forecast for the growth of world oil demand in 2026 from a 'previous 1,17 million barrels per daily (bpd), marking its second consecutive 'downward' revision. The group of producers also predicted that consumption would increase later. This increased its forecast for demand growth in 2027. The group expects oil demand in 2027 to increase by 1,73 million barrels per day, an increase of 190,000 barrels per day from its previous estimate. (Reporting and editing by Sonali Paul, Tom Hogue and Emily Chow)
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Copper prices rise on hopes for Middle East peace and a lower oil price
Copper prices rose on Friday, amid lower oil prices and optimism about a possible peace deal between the U.S.A. and Iran that would end the war. By 0300 GMT, the benchmark three-month contract for copper on?the London Metal Exchange had risen by 1.64% to $13,704 per metric tonne. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract rose 1.5%, to 104960 yuan (15,516.30 USD) per ton. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said Thursday that a "peace agreement" could be signed this weekend and reopen 'the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said, however, that no final decision has been made about a possible agreement. Copper is a widely used indicator of global economic health, and the war has affected prices. The copper prices on the?LME? and SHFE? fell to multi-week lows Thursday, amid the worst outbreak of violence between Iran and the U.S. since a ceasefire was agreed in April. The World Bank cut their global growth forecast for 2026 on Thursday due to the "war" and warned that a further drop could occur if the energy supply disruptions continue and financial market stress increases. The persistently high inflation has also raised concerns about the possibility of higher interest rates for a longer period. The European Central Bank raised borrowing costs for the first time on?Thursday. High interest rates dampen demand prospects for industrial metals that are growth-dependent. The outlook for Middle East peace has also largely influenced the prices of other base metals. Aluminium gained 1.09% on the LME. Zinc gained 1.03%. Lead gained 0.62%. Nickel gained 1.11%. Tin gained 0.76%. On the SHFE?, aluminium rose by 0.76%. Zinc gained 0.43%. Lead lost 0.46%. Nickel gained 0.9%. Tin rose 2.72%.
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Gold to lose weekly value as inflation and rate hikes persist
Gold prices fell on Friday, and were on track to lose a significant amount of money for the week. This was due to concerns about inflation and possible interest rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve. As of 0252 GMT the spot gold price was down 0.5%, at $4,191.17 an ounce. This was a loss of 3.2% for the week. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery rose 2.4% to $ 4,212.70. Gold fell to a six-month low before closing at $4,219.69 on Thursday, after U.S. president Donald?Trump cancelled planned military strikes against Iran and announced an imminent peace agreement. Edward Meir is an analyst with Marex. He said that the price of oil was "completely driven by geopolitical headlines." The markets will pay attention to any indication that the Fed might raise rates. If they hint in that direction, then I think gold could?break under the $4,000 mark. Gold prices have fallen by about 20% in the last few months, as central banks are worried that inflation could be sparked by rising energy costs, causing them to raise interest rates and increase the cost of owning the metal. U.S. Producer Prices increased more than expected during May, leading the biggest annual increase in three-and-a half years. The Middle East Conflict drove up the price of energy products. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 60% probability of an increase in the U.S. rate for December. Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States and Iran might sign a deal this weekend to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?to shipping. Iran, however, countered by saying that they had not made a final decision about an agreement. The New York SPDR Gold Trust's holdings, the largest gold-backed ETF, dropped about 0.3% on Wednesday to?923.89 tons. Silver spot?fell by 0.4%, to $67.10 an ounce. Platinum?gained by 0.7%, to $1731.40. Both metals are headed for weekly losses. Palladium rose to $1289.33 and has gained 5% so far this week. (Reporting from Pablo Sinha, Bengaluru. Editing by Rashmi aich and Mrigank dhaniwala.)
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Oil nears two-month lows, stocks extend rally on Gulf breakthrough hope
Asian stocks rallied on Friday amid hopes of a Middle East Peace Deal. The dollar and bond yields fell, oil prices dropped to a two-month low, and inflation fears were tempered. The market debut of?Elon's SpaceX is a hotly anticipated event. It has set a new record with the largest-ever initial public offer. The IPO raised a new record of $75 billion. This valued the rocket and spacecraft maker at $1.77 trillion, making Musk the first billionaire in the world. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that a deal for peace could be signed this weekend. This came after Trump had threatened to launch more attacks on Iran. He said that negotiations with Tehran were at the highest level of Iran's leaders and that a broad coalition?of regional powers had approved them. Trump's comments follow repeated episodes of optimism by the president, which have not resulted in a deal. This has kept markets on edge. Ray Attrill is the head of FX Strategy at National Australia Bank. If we hear anything from Iran that is positive, it's clear the odds of a peace agreement are going to change dramatically. If confirmed, the deal would be the biggest diplomatic breakthrough to date in ending the war that has lasted three months and caused global energy prices to rise sharply. On Thursday, the European Central Bank raised?interest rates to combat war-induced inflation. Prices fell to a two-month low?after the announcement of an agreement, before reducing?some losses. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 1.2% last to $86.69 per barrel on top of 2.6% overnight. Brent crude futures fell 1.1% to $89.40 a barrel after falling nearly 3% over night. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 3.2%. This was led by the 7.4% increase in South Korea's KOSPI. Japan's Nikkei rose 2.7%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.3%, while China's blue chip CSI300 gained 1%. Wall Street surged overnight, with all three major indexes posting their largest daily gains since the U.S.-Iran agreement on a temporary "ceasefire" in April. The Nasdaq rose 2.5% on expectations of a successful market debut by Musk's SpaceX. IG estimates that the expected market capitalization of SpaceX by the end of the first day of trading would be just under $2.4 trillion. Tony Sycamore said that the market cap of SpaceX... would be about 35% more than the $1.78 billion valuation set for the IPO. This, in turn, indicates that the SpaceX share price will finish today somewhere between $175/$180. Treasuries kept their gains, as markets trimmed bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this year due to hopes of a Gulf peace deal. The price of a rate hike in October is now 36%, down from 51%. The yield on two-year Treasury bills was unchanged at?4.074%, after falling 6 basis points overnight. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields remained at 4.4710% after dropping almost 8 basis points overnight. After overnight losses, the dollar stabilized. After a?0.4% decline in the previous session, it rose by 0.2% to reach 160.20 yen. The yen is still close to the 160 mark, which many traders see as a line drawn in the sand. After overnight increases, the Australian and New Zealand dollar were each down by about 0.3% against the greenback. Friday, precious metals began to decline again. After a 3.5% overnight jump, spot gold fell 0.6%, to $4,189 per ounce. Spot silver, meanwhile, also dropped 0.6%, to $66.93, after a 5.8% increase. Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam, and Kevin Buckland edited the report.
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India curbs bulk fuel buying at retail pumps, caps diesel sales
India has banned commercial consumers from purchasing gasoline and diesel from retail fuel stations, and placed limits on the daily purchase of diesel to prevent local shortages. This is due to disruptions in global supply chains caused by the Middle East war. According to a government directive issued late Thursday, retail fuel station dealers are required to sell no more than 200 litres per vehicle or customer a day. Customers cannot resell diesel. Diesel for commercial customers like trucking firms has been purchased at lower prices at state-run retail outlets than usual. This, in turn, has led to shortages of diesel at retail stations. The government stated that restrictions were needed to ensure a fair?availability? of petrol and diesel throughout the country, stop diversion and hoarding and maintain an uninterrupted fuel supply?at fair price. State fuel retailers lose about 36.5 rupees (0.38 cents) per liter of diesel sold to retail customers. However, industrial buyers can purchase the fuel at market prices. They lose 9 rupees a liter on gasoline sales. India is a net exporter of refined fuels. However, higher fuel sales within the country at subsided rates are affecting the profitability of state-owned fuel retailers such as Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. About 90% of India's fuel stations are controlled by three state-owned?fuel retailers. The government order referred to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran and said that geopolitical tensions had strained the global petroleum supply chains, shipping logistics, and availability of petroleum products. This made prudent management and conservation necessary. The order stated that the measures would remain in effect for an initial period up to 90 days, unless they were revoked by a separate order.
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Oil losses continue as Trump cancels planned strike on Iran
After U.S. President Donald Trump cancelled plans to strike Iran, fears of an escalation in 'hostilities' following tit-fortat attacks earlier this week were reduced. Brent futures increased $1.21, or 1.3%, to $89.17 per barrel at 0042 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), however, rose $1.23 or 1.4% to $86.48. Brent crude was 4.2% less than WTI on a weekly basis. Trump, who threatened to hit Iran'very hard,' called off planned strikes Thursday, saying that discussions with Iran have progressed. Fars, Iran's semiofficial news agency, reported that Tehran has not approved the text of any agreement. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said: "This could be a false dawn but the market has reacted quickly and decisively." Iran announced on Wednesday that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed, stating that any vessel trying to pass through it would face fire. The blockade by Tehran of the Strait of Hormuz, which is normally used to transport a fifth of all global oil and LNG shipments, kept oil prices high. Commercial ships continue to pass through the waterway, according to the U.S. Military. IG's Sycamore stated that even if oil prices correct -downwards "as long the?price?can hold above the support?in?the low $80s the risks are firmly skewed upwards," IG said. (Reporting and editing by SonaliPaul; Sudarshanvaradhan)
Gold to lose weekly value as inflation and rate hike fears persist
Gold prices fell on Friday, and were "on track" to make a loss for the week. This was due to concerns about inflation and possible interest rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
As of 0442 GMT spot gold was down by 0.5%, at $4,193.58 an ounce. This was set to be a loss of 3.1% for the week. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery rose 2.5% to $ 4,215.30.
Gold dropped to a more-than-six month low on Thursday, before closing at $4,219.69 as U.S. president Donald Trump canceled planned military strikes?on Iran, and signalled a forthcoming peace deal.
Edward Meir is an analyst at Marex. He said that the price was "completely driven by geopolitical headlines."
The markets will pay attention to any indication that the Fed might raise rates. If they hint at moving in this direction, then I think that gold could break below the $4,000 level.
Gold has lost around 20% since the Iran War began. Central banks are worried that the rising cost of energy could lead to inflation. This is causing them to raise interest rates and increase the opportunity costs associated with holding gold.
The Middle East conflict has pushed up the price of energy products, causing the U.S. producer prices to increase more than expected. This is the biggest annual gain for 3-1/2 years.
According to CME Group's FedWatch, traders are pricing in a 60% probability of an increase in U.S. rates in December.
Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States and Iran can sign a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for shipping as soon as this weekend. Iran, however, countered by saying that they had not yet reached a decision about a deal.
The largest gold-backed ETF, New York's SPDR Gold Trust fell 0.3% on Wednesday to 923.89 tons.
ANZ has lowered their gold price target by $400, to $5200, in order to reflect the recent price volatility.
Spot'silver' fell 0.5% per ounce to $67.03, and platinum gained 0.7% at $1,731.41, both metals heading for a loss on a weekly basis. Palladium gained 1.8%, to $1,292.20. It has gained about 5% this week. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich, Mrigank dhaniwala, and Subhranshu sahu in Bengaluru.
(source: Reuters)