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India to adjust industrial output for seasonal changes in data revamp

The Indian statistics ministry is proposing to introduce a seasonal version of the closely monitored Index of Industrial?Production data (IIP), in order to reduce any impact that shifting festivals, such as Diwali, have on monthly readings.

IIP data includes data from a variety of sectors, including manufacturing, mining and electricity generation.

India publishes raw data for the month, without any adjustments. This can be seriously distorted by seasonal patterns and changes in festival dates, as well as differences in working hours. Data is frequently revised to take into account?these disruptions.

In a discussion paper released by the Ministry on Wednesday, it was stated that a new "methodology" could be used to improve economic signals, without excessive revisions.

According to the proposal, before publishing adjusted numbers, the ministry would remove predictable patterns and fluctuations from the monthly industrial data. It would also separate underlying trends from irregular shocks, temporary fluctuations, and other unpredictability.

The proposal is part of an broader federal effort to revamp key economic data series by updating methods and revising base years to better reflect the current economic structure. In May, the base year of IIP data will be changed from 2011-12 to 2022-23.

The paper stated that "many official statistical agencies now disseminate seasonally adjusted IIP data in response to an increased demand for such data?and also because multilateral institutions have made explicit recommendations in favor of this practice."

The ministry is seeking feedback from stakeholders by the 12th of February on the proposed method, how to treat disruptions during the COVID era, and which holidays should be included in the adjustments. This represents a move towards aligning India’s industrial data to global practices.

The?ministry had proposed to overhaul the index. This included replacing closed factories in the survey sample with units that are active to improve accuracy. It also considered more frequent revisions, perhaps annual, to the weights of?sectors to better reflect changes in the industrial structure of the country.

India's latest IIP figures showed that industrial production rose at the fastest rate in over two years in December, at 7.8% compared to November's revised 7,2%.

(source: Reuters)