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China's crude steel production will fall to a seven-year low by 2025, despite record exports

China's crude steel production will fall to a seven-year low by 2025, despite record exports
China's crude steel production will fall to a seven-year low by 2025, despite record exports

China's crude output of steel in 2025 will be below 1 billion tons, a record low. A prolonged downturn on the property market has hurt demand. Steel exports have risen to new records.

National Bureau of Statistics data released on Monday showed that the world's biggest steel producer produced 960.81 millions tons of metal in 2025. This was the lowest level of production since 2018. This was a 4.4% decline from 2024.

The Chinese steel industry has been struggling to make a profit since the second half 2022 due to the "persistent slowdown in the property market".

Analysts said that profitability improved in 2025 in part because producers switched to flat steel products such as hot-rolled coils, which were in greater demand.

China's exports of steel, which reached a record high of?over 119 millions tons last year according to data released last week, are mostly flat steel.

According to calculations based off official data, the share of steel reinforcing bars - used in the construction industry - has dropped from 23% to 13% in the first eleven months of 2025. China has yet to release a breakdown for the entire year.

According to data from the consultancy Mysteel, 54% of steelmakers made a profit last year compared with 36% by 2024.

Analysts predict that crude steel production will continue to fall in 2026 but at a slower rate.

Ge Xin is the deputy director at Lange Steel. He forecasts a roughly 3% drop in crude steel production for 2026.

Beijing said in late December it would continue to control crude steel production and prevent the addition of illegal capacity from 2026 to 2030. It did not provide any further details. Beijing stopped the growth of crude steel production in 2021, as part its efforts to reduce carbon emissions.

In December, steel mills carried out annual maintenance on equipment during a time of generally low demand. This was the seventh consecutive month that output declined.

The December production fell by 10.3% compared to the same month of 2024.

(source: Reuters)