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China export controls force European firms to shift supply chains
A European lobbying group, looking for cover against the U.S. - China trade war, said Monday that China's tightening of export controls is pushing European firms into exploring new supply chain capacities outside the world's largest economy. According to the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, one in three of its member companies are looking to move their sourcing from China because of Beijing's export controls regime. Forty percent of respondents to its recent flash survey reported that the Commerce Ministry is processing export licenses slower than promised. The chamber's President Jens Eskelund said that China's export controls had increased the level of uncertainty for European companies operating in China. Companies were at risk of production delays or even halts. He added that the curbs "have added more pressure to an already stressed global trade system." The chamber reported that 130 companies took part in the survey. These included the German automakers BMW, Volkswagen and TotalEnergies, as well as the Finnish telecoms company Nokia, and the French oil giant TotalEnergies. Beijing stunned the U.S. when it threatened to tighten controls on rare-earth imports in October, highlighting China's willingness flex its muscle to keep Washington under pressure in trade negotiations. This move sparked new concerns from European companies about the possibility of their supply chains being disrupted again, as they were in April by similar curbs. Beijing's decision to stop exporting rare earths, magnets, and other products - ostensibly to squeeze U.S. automakers and military contractors - led to a global shortage of supplies. Alfredo Montufar Helu, managing director of Ankura Consulting, said that "these survey results are important because they paint an image that runs contrary to the optimism following the Busan summit". He was referring a pause on Beijing's new trade restrictions negotiated during a U.S. China summit in Busan, South Korea. The deal has not been signed in ink. Washington and Beijing continue to debate the concessions while the EU pushes for inclusion. The implementation is slow, and global supply chains pay the price. The Chamber's Flash survey revealed that nearly 70% of respondents said that their overseas production facilities depended upon Chinese components that are subject to export controls, and that 50% of exporting companies reported that either their customers or suppliers made goods that would soon be controlled. The EU firms complained that the process of obtaining a license from the Commerce Ministry took longer than the 45-day promise. They also expressed concern about the lack of transparency in the application. Also, they raised concerns regarding possible intellectual property theft. The survey provided examples of companies that were affected by Beijing's export restrictions. One firm estimated that the measures would cost it 20% of their global revenue in this year. Another said that they expected to incur costs of more than 250 million euros (289.8 millions). The survey found that 56 of 131 European companies surveyed said export controls will have no effect, suggesting certain sectors are still protected. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Eduardo Baptista and Joe Cash)
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Gold reaches six-week highs driven by risk-off sentiment
The gold price has stabilized since hitting a six week high on Monday. Investors are focused on the potential U.S. interest rate cut that could happen later this month. Silver prices have also reached a new record. As of 0645 GMT, spot gold had risen 0.1% to $4,235.59 an ounce after reaching its highest level since October 21. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 0.3%, to $4269.40. Silver increased 1.1%, to $56.99 an ounce. It had previously reached a record high of $57.86. Holders of other currencies can now buy gold at a lower price than before, as the U.S. Dollar has fallen to its lowest level in two weeks. S&P Futures are on a risk off session, down 0.8% to coincide with the sell-off in major crypto currencies. This has created a positive feedback loop for gold, which is a safe-haven asset in today's thinly traded session. In Asian trading, U.S. stocks futures fell, and among cryptocurrencies bitcoin dropped 3.6% to $87.881.82 while ether dropped 5% at $2,871.59. Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, and New York Fed president John Williams, along with softer U.S. economic data, have strengthened expectations that the central banks will ease policy this December. According to CME's FedWatch, futures indicate an 87% probability of a rate reduction. Kevin Hassett is a White House economist who has been tipped as the frontrunner to become Fed chair. He said that if President Donald Trump appointed him, he would gladly accept. Hassett, like Trump, believes that rates should be lowered. The markets are now awaiting the core U.S. The Fed will be looking at Friday's Personal Consumption Spending figures for more clues about its policy direction. Non-yielding gold tends to be supported by lower borrowing costs. Wong said that silver prices rose due to the thin liquidity created by the CME's outage last Thursday, and not because of any fundamental factors. Platinum rose by 1.3%, to $1694.18, and palladium increased by 1.4%, to $1471.94. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Mrigank Dhaniwala and Eileen Soreng)
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Asian stocks fall; yen rises as Ueda's comments raise rate hike expectations
Stocks dropped on Monday, after a strong November. A bout of risk-aversion gripped the markets as optimism about U.S. interest rate cuts remained unchanged. The beaten-down Japanese yen strengthened and government bond yields soared to their highest level since 2008. In the currency market, the Japanese yen has gained strength to reach 155.55 US dollars. This is the strongest signal yet from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda that an interest rate increase could be imminent. Ueda told business leaders in a speech that the central banks would weigh the pros and cons of increasing rates during its next policy meeting, which will be held in two weeks. Investors shrugged off fears of an AI bubble in November. This week, traders looked for catalysts that would continue the upward trend. The focus was on economic data. U.S. futures for stocks fell, with Nasdaq and S&P 500 down 0.7% each. European futures also fell by 0.3%. Bitcoin and ether, two crypto currencies, both fell more than 5%. This shows a cooling in risk appetite. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose by 0.7%, but the mood was generally gloomy. Chaur Chanana is the chief investment strategist at Saxo. He cited several factors, including rising JGB rates and falling cryptocurrencies, as contributing to today's risk off tone. Hong Kong stocks are outperforming the rest of the region because weak China PMIs revived hopes for stimulus. UEDA SPURS YEN STRENGTH Ueda’s comments strengthened yen and pushed Nikkei index down by about 2%. Japanese government bond yields reached their highest level in 17 years. The yield on two-year JGBs, which is the most sensitive to BOJ policy rates, increased 3 basis points, to 1.02%. Meanwhile, the yield on ten-year JGBs rose by 7 bps, to 1.87%. Both yields reached their highest levels since June 2008. Markets have been focused on the yen in recent weeks. They are uncertain about the timing of the next rate hike, and they are concerned with the fiscal policies implemented by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Tokyo officials have warned traders several times that they will intervene to stop the decline of the yen. Fred Neumann of HSBC's chief Asia economist said Ueda’s comments indicate that the BOJ has become increasingly concerned over the negative impact of continued depreciation in the exchange rate on consumer spending. Investors will pay close attention to the subsequent policy guidance, even if BOJ hikes rates in December. This seems more likely following Ueda’s remarks. A hawkish rate hike in December could help anchor expectations for the exchange rate and bond markets. This week, investors will focus on U.S. releases covering manufacturing and services activity, as well as consumer confidence. Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, in Brisbane, says that if the data indicate a slowdown, but not a recession, then the sentiment will probably remain positive, even if the U.S. Dollar weakens, as it usually does during this time of the year. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. Dollar against six rival currencies) was 99.414, which is little changed from the previous day. The index is down 8% for the year, with most of the losses occurring in the first half. Focus on Consumer Spending Investors are looking for clues about what the Fed is going to do at its meeting next week. They will be listening for Jerome Powell's comments later in the afternoon. After a series of dovish remarks from policymakers over the past few days, traders are pricing in a 87% chance that the Fed will cut rates. As data from Black Friday, Cyber Monday and other retail sales events begins to trickle in, attention will be paid to holiday consumer spending. Adobe Analytics, a company that tracks the visits made by shoppers to online retail sites, reports that U.S. consumers spent $11.8 billion on Black Friday online, a record amount. This is up 9.1% since 2024. Oil prices increased in commodities after OPEC+ decided to maintain the same oil production levels for the first three months of 2026. The group is reducing its efforts to regain market shares amid fears of a looming glut of supply. Brent crude futures rose 1% to $63.03 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was up 0.99% at $59.16 per barrel. Reporting by Ankur Banerjee, Singapore; Editing and proofreading by Muralikumar Anantharaman. Kate Mayberry, Lincoln Feast.
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Gold reaches a six-week high amid equities' risk-off mood
Silver prices reached a new record high after reaching a six-week-high on Monday. Investors were focused on the potential U.S. interest rate cut that could occur later in the month. As of 0534 GMT, spot gold fell 0.1% to $4225.91 an ounce after reaching its highest level since October 21. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 0.1% at $4,260.20. Silver rose 0.7%, to $56.78 an ounce. It had earlier reached a record high of $57.86. Holders of other currencies can now buy gold at a lower price than before, as the U.S. Dollar has fallen to its lowest level in two weeks. S&P Futures are down 0.8%, in line with the sell-off in major crypto currencies. This has created a positive feedback loop for gold, which is a safe-haven asset in today's thinly traded session. In Asian trading, U.S. stocks futures fell, and among cryptocurrencies bitcoin dropped 3.6% to $87.881.82 while ether fell 5% to $2.871.59. Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, and New York Fed president John Williams, along with softer U.S. economic data, have strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve policy will be eased in December. According to CME's FedWatch, futures indicate an 87% probability of a rate reduction. Kevin Hassett is a White House economist who has been tipped as the frontrunner to become Fed chair. He said that he would gladly accept this position if President Donald Trump were to nominate him. Hassett, like Trump, believes that rates should be lowered. The markets are now awaiting the core U.S. The Fed will be looking at Friday's Personal Consumption Spending figures for more clues about its policy direction. Non-yielding gold tends to be supported by lower borrowing costs. Wong said that silver prices rose due to the thin liquidity created by the CME's outage last Thursday, and not because of any fundamental factors. Palladium rose 1%, to $1,465.44, while platinum gained 0.6%, to $1683.03. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Mrigank Dhaniwala)
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The rate hike is a possibility, but the yen will not decline.
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets After the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo ueda's clearest indication yet of a potential move in the near future, the year that began with a rate increase in Japan could end with another. This will set the stage for an important month of divergence of monetary policy. Ueda stated that the BOJ would consider "pros" and "cons" of increasing interest rates during its next policy meeting, which will take place in two weeks. This statement helped strengthen the fragile yen by pushing Japanese government bonds yields to their highest level in 17 years. Investors are already preparing for a possible interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve after dovish remarks from several policymakers. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak later today and traders will analyze his comments to determine the short-term rate path. The BOJ's and Fed's divergent actions have helped to relieve the yen from its 10-month lows, which had been causing concern about intervention. On Monday, the currency rose 0.5% to reach 155.41 U.S. dollars. Analysts are quick to note that the yen's weakness is not likely to end anytime soon, as there will be a large gap between U.S. rates and Japan rates, even after Japan normalises its policy. The spread between U.S. 10-year bond rates and Japanese rates is at its tightest level since April 2022, with 219 basis points. However, U.S. bonds yields are still significantly higher than Japanese ones. In April 2022 the yen traded at around 123 per dollar. After a positive end to November investors have begun to be more cautious as they await a number of economic reports from around the world, including the European Manufacturing data. European futures suggest a lower opening in a slow start to the month, after the pan-European STOXX 600 recorded its fifth consecutive month of gains. The markets will also want to know who will be the next Powell. His term will end in one year. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner. This could put pressure on the dollar. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact Data on the November PMI for Germany, France and UK
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India weighs Mongolian coking coal imports despite transport hurdles, source says
India is considering the viability to import coking coal from Mongolia, despite the transport bottlenecks. New Delhi wants to diversify its supplies of this key ingredient in steelmaking. India, which is the second largest crude steel producer in the world, imports about 85% its coking coal, more than half of which comes from Australia. The source stated that the demand is expected to increase in the coming years. This will prompt the government and steelmakers alike to seek out new suppliers. Mongolia is a landlocked country with two export trade routes - one via Russia, and the other through China. The source declined to identify herself as the information wasn't public. The Ministry of Steel in India did not reply to an email seeking a comment. New Delhi and Beijing are slowly rebuilding their economic ties, after a deadly border clash in 2020 that triggered a long-lasting military standoff. Industry officials have cited Mongolian coking as a source of high quality coal at lower prices. The source stated that logistics are the main obstacle. India has not yet received the trial shipments that were planned for earlier this year of Mongolian coal. In May, the State-run Steel Authority of India had requested 1 metric tons of Mongolian coal. The steelmaker stated in an email that it is "in constant contact with Mongolian coal suppliers to determine the technical and logistical feasibility of sourcing from Mongolia". The Mongolian Ministry of Mining and Heavy Industry has not responded to a comment request. Source: Separately, Russia, and the United States, each account for approximately 15% of India's imports of coking coal.
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The dollar is lower and the risk-off mood in stocks has led to a six-week gold high.
On Monday, gold prices reached a six-week-high as investors reacted to a possible rate cut in the United States later this month. Silver also hit a record-high. Gold spot rose by 0.2% at 0401 GMT to $4240.54 an ounce after reaching its highest level since October 21. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 0.5%, to $4276.00. Silver rose 2%, to 57.48 dollars per ounce. It had previously reached a record high of 57.86 dollars. Holders of other currencies can now buy gold at a lower price than before, as the U.S. Dollar has fallen to its lowest level in two weeks. S&P Futures are down 0.8%, in line with the sell-off in major crypto currencies. This has created a positive feedback loop for gold, which is a safe-haven asset in today's thinly traded session. In Asian trading, U.S. stocks futures fell, and among cryptocurrencies bitcoin dropped 3.6% to $87.881.82 while ether dropped 5% at $2,871.59. Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, and New York Fed president John Williams, along with softer U.S. economic data, have strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve policy will be eased in December. According to CME's FedWatch, futures indicate an 87% probability of a rate reduction. Kevin Hassett is a White House economist who has been tipped as the frontrunner to become Fed chair. He said that he would gladly accept this position if President Donald Trump were to nominate him. Hassett, like Trump, believes that rates should be lowered. The markets are now awaiting the core U.S. The Fed will be looking at Friday's Personal Consumption Spending figures for more clues about its policy direction. Non-yielding gold tends to be supported by lower borrowing costs. Wong said that silver prices rose due to the thin liquidity created by the CME's outage last Thursday, and not because of any fundamental factors. Palladium rose 2.1%, to $1 482,45, and platinum gained 1.3%, to $1 694,70. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Mrigank Dhaniwala)
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Asian stocks fall; yen rises as Ueda's comments raise rate hike expectations
Stocks fell on Monday, after a strong November. A bout of risk-aversion gripped the markets as optimism about U.S. interest rate cuts remained unchanged. The yen strengthened as investors considered the possibility of a rate increase as early as this month. Investors were looking for clues about the timing of the next rate hike as Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda spoke in Nagoya. Ueda told business leaders in an address that the central banks would weigh the "pros" and "cons" of raising interest rates at their next policy meeting. This was the strongest indication yet as to whether or not a rate hike is on the horizon for later this month. Ueda will speak again later today. His comments boosted the yen and pushed down the Nikkei by more than 1,5%. Japanese government bond yields also reached their highest level in 17 years. The yield on the two-year JGB, which is most sensitive to BOJ policy rates, increased by 2 basis points, to 1.01%. This was its highest level since June 2008. Markets have been focused on the yen in recent weeks due to uncertainty over the timing and fiscal policies of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist for Saxo. She said that traders interpreted Ueda’s comments as a sign that he would "almost be on board" with a rate increase this month, but any such move was unlikely. "Remember that Japan is not sprinting, but rather edging its way away from a policy of ultra-easy." Chanana stated that "that means the yen could claw back some of the ground lost on BOJ hints, and lower global yields. However, it is hard to predict the end of the yen's weakness as long as the U.S.-Japan rates gaps remain so wide." STOCKS SURRENDER AROUND NOVEMBER STRONG Investors shrugged off fears of an AI bubble at the end of November. Traders were now looking for catalysts that would continue upward momentum. This week, they will be focusing on economic data. U.S. Stock Futures fell in Asian Hours, with Nasdaq and S&P 500 down 0.8% each. Bitcoin and ether, two crypto currencies, both fell more than 5%. This highlights the cooling of risk appetite. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose by more than 1% and pushed Asian stocks higher. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose 0.1%. It has gained over 23% in the past year, and is on track for its best gain since 2017. Chanana from Saxo said that there was no single factor driving the current risk-off mood, but rather a number of factors, such as rising JGB yields, and falling cryptocurrencies. Hong Kong stocks have beaten the regional trend because weak China PMIs revived hopes for stimulus. Investors will focus on U.S. releases this week, which cover consumer sentiment and manufacturing activity. Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, in Brisbane, says that if incoming data signals a slowdown, but not a recession, then the sentiment will probably remain positive, even if the U.S. Dollar weakens, as it usually does during this time of the year. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. Dollar against six rival currencies) was 99.414, which is little changed from the previous day. The index is down 8% for the year, with most of the losses occurring in the first half. Focus on Consumer Spending Investors are looking for clues about what the Fed is going to do at its meeting next week by listening to the comments of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. After a series of dovish remarks from policymakers over the past few days, traders are pricing in a 87% chance that a cut will occur. As data from Black Friday, Cyber Monday and other retail sales events begins to trickle in, attention will be paid to holiday consumer spending. Adobe Analytics, a company that tracks the visits made by shoppers to online retail sites, reports that U.S. consumers spent $11.8 billion on Black Friday online, a record amount. This is up 9.1% since 2024. Oil prices increased in commodities after OPEC+ decided to maintain the same oil production levels for the first three months of 2026. The group is reducing its efforts to regain market shares amid fears of a looming glut of supply. Brent crude futures rose 1% to $63,03 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was up 0.99% at $59.16 per barrel. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Kate Mayberry, and Ankur Banerjee from Singapore)
Indonesian exports in October fall unexpectedly amid weak China demand
Indonesia posted a smaller-than-expected trade surplus in October after exports unexpectedly fell, official data showed on Monday, amid curtailed demand from China and weak shipments of mining products.
The surplus was $2.4 billion. This is lower than the forecast of $3.72 billion by economists polled and September's surplus of $4.34 billion. According to LSEG, it was the smallest surplus monthly since April.
Exports fell 2.31% compared to a year ago, reaching $24.24 billion. Analysts predicted a growth of 3.38%. A Statistics Indonesia official explained to reporters that the decline was caused by lower shipments, particularly of copper and coal products.
Faisal Rachman, economist at Permata Bank, explained that the contraction is due to a weaker demand in China amid a softening of the economy and a continuing normalisation of trade after a titt-for-tat increase in tariffs early this year.
Indonesian exporters have front-loaded their shipments into the U.S. before the tariffs began in August.
Freeport Indonesia, the largest copper producer in the country, suffered a deadly mudslide disaster at its Grasberg Complex in September. The company was forced to temporarily halt their production.
The company has now resumed operations at its two smaller mining complexes in Grasberg. However, it has lowered its production target for 2025-2026 due to ongoing recovery works at the complex.
Southeast Asia's largest economy enjoyed a relative large trade surplus nearly every month in 2025. This was supported by increased shipments of gold, palm oil and jewellery, and even though prices of its main commodities, coal, and nickel, remained weak.
Imports fell by 1.15% in October to $21.84 Billion, mainly due to lower demand for consumer products and raw materials. However, this was still less than the 2.2% predicted in the poll.
Separately Indonesia's annual rate of inflation slowed in November to 2.72%, which is slightly lower than the median analyst forecast of 2.77%, and comfortably within central bank's target range of 1.5% to 35%, according to data released on Monday.
In October, the inflation rate was 2.86%.
Core inflation, which excludes government-controlled prices and volatile food items, was steady at 2.36% in November. (Reporting and editing by John Mair, Kevin Buckland, Stanley Widianto, Fransiska Widianto, Stefanno Suroyo)
(source: Reuters)