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Copper prices are rising on short covering and ignoring the weak China data.
The copper price rose on Monday, as traders moved forward their?positions in anticipation of a contract that expires this week. This helped the?market put aside worries about weak data and the property sector in China's top consumer for now. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange increased 1.4% to $11,670 a metric ton at 1058 GMT. On Friday, copper hit a new record of $11,952 due to concerns about a tight supply. Then there was a "sell-off" amid renewed fears that the AI bubble would burst. Alastair Munro is a senior metals analyst at Marex. He said that prices will remain volatile and choppy intraday as we enter the first quarter of this year. A trader reported that short or bearish LME positions were being cut, or rolled over before settlement on Wednesday. A trader said that 39% of the 165,875 tonnes of copper in LME-registered storage facilities were short or bearish positions. Marked as ready for delivery. Daily inflows of copper to Comex stocks The price of copper, which was already a record, increased due to the higher prices on Comex. The U.S. did not include refined copper in the 50% tariffs on imports that went into effect in August, but kept it under review. As long as there's a significant arbitrage in the LME-CME market, I expect material to continue to?flow? into the U.S., as traders take advantage of those profits," said Samuel Basi. He is the founder?of Perfectly Hedged. Data showed that in China, the top metals consumer, factory output growth fell to a low of 15 months in November. Meanwhile, new home prices continued their decline. Vanke, a developer in China, has made a "renewed effort" to get bondholders to support an onshore debt payment. Other LME metals include aluminium, which rose by 0.4% to 2,880.50 per ton. Zinc fell by 0.1% to 3,121, while lead dropped 0.2% to 1,964. Tin fell 1.1% to 40,915, and nickel lost 0.3% to 14,540. (Reporting and editing by Susan Fenton; Polina Devtt)
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Canada's farmers produce record crops despite droughts, floods and other natural disasters
After a year of flooding and a long dry spell, Simon Ellis expected "catastrophic" failure when he first drove his combine through this crop. Instead of shriveled seeds, plump grains of wheat, oats, and soybeans were poured into the combine. Ellis, 38, who is a fourth generation farmer in Wawanesa (Manitoba), credits the investment made into expensive systems, such as minimum- and zero-till agriculture, for helping to protect soil. Tile drainage is an underground system that prevents flooding. It also contains pellets of fertilizer with a slower release rate, which are more efficient. A professional agronomist can provide advice on weedkillers. He said, "We're always making small tweaks." "That's the only way we can continue to fight against climate change." Farmers like Ellis are common in western Canada. According to Canadian government statistics, farmers have produced better crops in spite of 'hotter and dryer' conditions. This is a far cry from what they could have achieved in better weather years ago. While higher yields in Canada, and elsewhere, are depressing the global price for grains they keep many farmers in business. A RECORD HARDEST HARVEST EVEN IN THE MIDST OF A DROUGHT Many farmers have been able to survive the drought that started in 2020 by using adaptation practices, which are expensive and require cutting-edge technologies. The Canadian government announced earlier this month that it would be harvesting record amounts of canola and spring wheat by 2025. Because most grains produced in Canada is shipped and consumed overseas, these gains will have a major impact on the ability of the rest of world to feed themselves affordably. Australia, a large grain exporter in the world, also reported higher crop yields, despite dry conditions. According to interviews with 25 farmers, scientists, and leaders in the agriculture industry, as well as a review of over a dozen academic articles, this combination of technology and methods is helping Canadian growers not only keep up with climate changes, but also stay ahead of their ravages. According to government data, spring wheat used for high-quality bread yielded 58.8 bushes per acre in 2018. Based on a three year average, this is a 77% increase from 30 years ago. Canola yields have nearly doubled to reach 44.7 bushels an acre based on the same average of 1994-1996. The agricultural experts interviewed in Nature said that climate adaptation strategies can help the prairies continue to produce larger and larger crops in the future. Rob Saik is a Canadian agronomist and has advised governments around the world. "Now, it's a complete failure." A REGION WORLDWIDE RECOGNIZED FOR BEING DIFFICULT Western Canada was experiencing extreme weather even before the climate change. It was a notoriously hard region to farm. Central prairies are a land of golden and green short grasses and thin, scrubby brushes. They receive half the amount of rainfall that Iowa does and have a shorter growing season. Climate change has made it harder. Environment and Climate Change Canada According to the report, extreme weather events are becoming more common and the country is warming twice as fast as the global average. . On the prairies annual snowfall has decreased, and extremes in summer rain and drought are increasing. Rain often comes as torrents or even not at all. In a report dated 2024, the federal department stated that extreme events such as floods, heatwaves or wildfires are damaging our economy, ecosystems, and built environment. Not Miracles, but INCREASED GAINS Scientists and agronomists agree that Canada's gains are not the result of a single, dramatic event, but rather from incremental, steady progress in farming techniques and inputs. Now, many seeds are coming. Thanks to genetic modification and conventional breeding, these plants are resistant to insects, diseases, and weeds. The application of fertilizer is timed to coincide with the planting of seeds to minimize soil disturbance. The use of weedkillers, ungicides and nutrients allows crops to compete with their natural enemies. Some strategies are reminiscent of pre-industrial techniques, like intercropping or growing multiple crops simultaneously. Experts are also credited Automation such as self-guiding tractor that applies fertilizer at different rates depending on soil testing and satellite mapping. A FAMILY'S EVOLUTION IN ADAPTATION The Mowbray Family began adapting practices with tile drainage four decades ago. They laid a small length of perforated pipes designed to allow the water to drain into the soil instead of spreading it on the surface. In the past 12 years, Scott Mowbray (46), has increased the drainage system on his 800-acre property. The Mowbrays, meanwhile, gradually reduced their tilling. In 2010, the 2,000 acres of farm were no-till. The soil was left unplowed, and stubble remained to act as a moisture-trap and barrier against the wind which would otherwise carry the topsoil. Mowbray says that the innovations have allowed him to produce "incredible" quantities of spring wheat and peas, while using half as much rainfall. TECHNOLOGY'S STEEL PRICE TAG Many of the tools that have helped Canadian farmers deal with climate changes are expensive and complex. A smart combine can cost upwards of C$1,000,000 ($722,125.94). A high-speed-data-enabled tractor and seeding drill cost around C$2 ?million ($1.44 million). Kip Eideberg is the senior vice president of government relations and industry relations at the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM), which represents John Deere, Case New Holland, and other manufacturers. He said that precision systems are important. The Canadian farmers have been able to save 9% on herbicides and pesticides. They also saved 6% on fuel and 4% on water. He said that this saves money for farmers who are operating on razor thin margins. Terry Griffin, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, says that most large-scale farms have such technology available in their 'tractors, combines and sprayers, as well as management computers. A younger generation of farmers may not have the funds to purchase machines or receive agronomic guidance. Rural broadband access is one of the biggest obstacles to adoption. Mowbray cannot rely on his farm machinery to provide a continuous stream of data. He can't call his farm from his phone. He relies on radios to communicate with his farm. He said that it was a simple but important thing to have when you're out in the field, and need a pickup but are unable to call home. SEED SCIENCE: THE INVISIBLE Factor Breeding genetically superior crops, which are drought-tolerant, hardier and yield more, is also important for farmers. "We're just starting down that path," said Rick Mitzel, CEO of farmer-and-industry-funded mustard seed development organization Mustard 21. The company is working on drought-tolerant plants to replace canola. Mitzel said in an interview that the varieties "develop roots faster, come out of ground quicker and get leafing quicker." South East Research Farm, a farmer-controlled farm in Redvers in Saskatchewan, has been testing crops like camelina that is likely to be planted for sustainable aviation fuel in Canada. This could offer farmers higher yields and greater resilience. Lana Shaw, executive director of the Canadian Farm Community Association, believes that climate change will not occur without causing losses to Canadian farmers. Some farmers will retire and not adapt. Some farmers will fail to adapt. Some farmers will thrive and adapt. She said that "under pressure, they can adapt very quickly."
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The Hanukkah massacre in Australia: "It was dead everywhere"
Click here to view a multi-media graphic Some of the thousands who descended on Sydney's Bondi Beach Sunday evening were looking for relief from the hot weather, while others joined the local Jewish group to celebrate Hanukkah or the festival of lights. Advertisements advertised a face-painting, donuts, and petting farm. The goal was to "fill Bondi" with light and joy. The scene became a bloodbath hours later. Two gunmen fired between 10 and twenty minutes on Hanukkah attendees, killing men, women, and children, as terrified beachgoers fled. At least 40 people, including at least two police officers, were injured, with some of them critically. More than 12 people died and more than a dozen others wounded. The video footage, interviews with witnesses and comments of police officials and other authorities, as well as media reports and videos from the incident, have helped to piece together when Hanukkah went from a time for celebration to one that was filled with fear. The police have not released the names of the two suspects. One was shot dead and the other critically injured in a shootout with the police. State media ABC and others have identified the two suspects as Sajid and his son Naveed. Police said that by Sunday the men had collected six firearms belonging to the father, as well as multiple improvised bomb devices. According to the police, the father owned a firearm and was a member of a gun club. According to Australia's ABC public broadcaster, the two men lived in a "spartan" Airbnb apartment located in Campsie, a suburb southwest of Sydney. The son, a 24 year-old Sydney bricklayer who was unemployed, called his mom to inform her that his father, 50-year old shopowner, and he had taken a fishing trip over the weekend on the eastern coast of Australia, according to the Sydney Morning Herald, which cited his mother. Anthony Albanese, Australian prime minister, said that in October 2019, Australia’s intelligence agency investigated the son to determine if he had any ties with a self-proclaimed Islamic State terror. Albanese stated that the agency determined there was "no evidence of an ongoing threat". According to the police, on Sunday night, two men left improvised bombs in a car that was parked near Bondi Beachfront. They then drove towards the beach. Two figures in black are then seen on video footage standing atop the concrete bridge that leads to Bondi's crowded waters and a nearby park. Bystanders recorded both men firing?large, powerful firearms' from the highpoint toward the Hanukkah celebration. A surf camera captured footage of dozens running across Bondi sand in an attempt to escape gunfire. Terry, a man who identified himself as such, said that his daughter of 15 years was "part of the stampede". Terry said that she took refuge at the Iceberg Swimming?Pools, located at the southern end Bondi. She used the phone of a stranger to call him while he was at another Hanukkah celebration. He said, "You think you are safe standing here." He had to reconsider his life as an Australian because of the growing antisemitic attacks, many of which are linked to the Gaza war. He said, "Maybe one day we should move to Israel." The irony is, that Israel looks like the only safe place we can be in the world as Jews. In a third video, the older shooter is seen standing near the festival site. The older shooter fires directly at a festival attendee while others run. Local media identified the man as Sydney resident Ahmed al Ahmed. He is seen hiding behind a car. Ahmed, hiding behind a car, tackles the shooter from behind and tears the gun from his hands. He then points it at the man as he flees. Ahmed was treated in hospital for two gunshot wounds on Monday. The drone video shows the older gunman lying prone on the concrete, while the younger man moves around before falling. Sixth video: Three police officers sprint?towards the bridge, arms outstretched. One video shows the officers holding two men down on the floor, as a passerby runs up and kicks the men. The video shows that at least nine officers are on the bridge. Several of them kneel over prone men and apply chest compressions. The police said that the older man at Bondi died from his injuries. Hussain Rifi (18) said that he and a group were in a nearby shower block. Rifi said, "We were taking videos and flexing our muscles in the mirror when we heard it: bang bang bang." He soon realised that the sounds were gunshots. He said that he and his friend hid near the showers for about 20 minutes until the shooting stopped. He saw dead bodies when he looked around. Rifi said, "There were chunks of human flesh on the floor." It was everywhere dead people. Hundreds of paramedics and police descended upon the scene. From there, dozens of injured victims and the shooter survived were transported to local hospitals. 16 people have died, including a 10-year old girl and a British born rabbi. Police began to sweep the grass and sand using flashlights as darkness fell. They were apparently looking for evidence. ABC reported that police found an Islamic State Flag in the car of the gunmen suspected. The men were arrested in Bonnyrigg, a suburb in Sydney. They also had their Airbnb at Campsie. Rabbi Levi Wolff, of the Central Sydney Synagogue, stood in shock on Bondi's main street. After hearing the news, he had rushed over to a religious service. He said that it was hard to believe that such a thing could be possible in Australia, a country that has been so welcoming for generations. Then he stepped away to answer a phone call from Israel's President. He said that "the silent majority" of antisemitism opponents "must no longer remain silent." (Editing Praveen Menon & Lincoln Feast).
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Fortuna Mining aims to achieve its output target by focusing on gold assets in the mid-tier.
Fortuna Mining's West Africa Operations Chief said that the company is looking for mid-tier gold assets and accelerating new projects as it works to achieve its 500,000 ounces annual production target, after selling mines located in Burkina Faso, Mexico, and?Burkina?Faso. Canadian miner sells Yaramoko mines in Burkina Faso, and San Jose operations in Mexico, cutting short-term, high-cost assets but also reducing production. It has made new deals including a joint-venture with DeSoto to explore in Guinea, and a larger stake in Awale Resources a West Africa focused?gold-explorer with operations on the Ivory Coast. This is in line with a global trend, as gold prices are rising. WEST AFRICA?SEES FLURRY of GOLD M&A David Whittle said that these deals were part of Fortuna’s long-term plan for growth in a Thursday interview. Whittle stated that Fortuna would also be keeping a close eye on potential acquisitions to accelerate growth. West Africa experienced a "flurry" of gold sector deals by 2025. This included the purchase of Barrick Tongon mines in northern Ivory Coast by Atlantic Group and the merger between African Gold and Montage Gold. Perseus Mining’s A$2.1billion ($1.40billion) bid for Predictive Discovery expired last week, after Robex Resources made a better offer for the Guinean-focused explorer. FLEXIBILITY IN ACTING Whittle stated that Fortuna's target was mid-size operations, producing 100,000-200,000ozs of gold per year and with a mine life of at least 10 years. "Any deal should add value and not only ounces." He said that the company prefers to operate in countries where it has already established operations. Fortuna's net cash is about $400 million, which gives it the flexibility to take advantage of new opportunities. Fortuna's plan for growth is centered around Seguela. The mine, which will pour its first gold in 2023, plays a key role. The mine will exceed its 2025 production guidance by producing more than 150,000 ounces. Fortuna has also awarded 'Lycopodium' an option study for expanding plant throughput from 1.7-1.75 metric tons to 2-2.5 metric tons a year. Fortuna is expecting environmental approval for Diamba Sud early next year. Construction will begin in 2026, and the first gold pour should be early in 2028. Whittle noted that governments in West Africa continue to support mining investments despite a tendency toward resource nationalism. "Ivory Coast, Senegal and other African countries offer permit timelines between four and five years for the first gold to be produced from resource... This is much faster than Canada or USA."
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Dalian iron ore reaches five-month low after China announces plans to regulate exports of steel
The price of Dalian Iron Ore dropped on Monday, reaching its lowest level in over five months. This was due to China's plan to introduce a license system to regulate steel exports from 2026. Iron ore, the most traded contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed daytime trading 0.92% lower than its previous price of 753 yuan (106.85 dollars) per metric ton. The price of iron ore fell to its lowest level in the last 10 days at 748 yuan during this session. By 1012 GMT, the benchmark January iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange had fallen 0.47% to $100.50 a ton. The contract hit an intraday minimum of $100.4, which is close to Friday's low level of $100.25, the weakest since July 17. China's Ministry of Commerce announced on Friday that it would add certain steel products to the list of cargoes "under export license" as of January 1, 2026. This is because robust shipments are fueling a protectionist backlash around the world. China's soaring steel exports helped offset the slump in domestic demand for steel caused by the prolonged downturn on the property market, thereby supporting the prices of this key ingredient. China's crude output of steel in November dropped 3% from October. This is the sixth consecutive month that China has seen a decline. The margins are thinner and domestic demand is dwindling. Analysts at Xinhu Futures stated in a 'note' that the downside potential for?iron-ore prices is limited as mills will start restocking their feedstocks in order to?sustain operation over the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays in February. The Chinese Lunar New Year in 2026 falls between February 15 and 23. Following a Friday?slump, coking coal and other steelmaking components rose by 3.16 % and 0.3% respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in most steel benchmarks. Hot-rolled coils lost 0.15%. Wire rods dropped 1.31%. Stainless steel declined 0.68%. Rebar gained 0.13%. ($1 = 7.0471 Chinese Yuan Renminbi). (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Pirelli bondholders to decide on conversion which could dilute shareholder's stakes
Holders of Pirelli's 500 million euro (582 million dollar)?bond? will decide on Monday if they want to convert the bond into shares. This could dilute the stakes that the existing investors hold in the group, who are fighting over the Italian tiremaker's governance. Sinochem, the Chinese state-owned company, and Marco Tronchetti Provera, an Italian businessman, both owning Camfin, have been at odds with each other in recent years. Camfin has complained that Sinochem's share is preventing the group from expanding into America. The tiremaker issued a five-year, no-coupon convertible bond at the end 2020. The bond is due to expire this December 22, but holders can convert it into shares up until December 15, at a price of 6.87 euros per share. By 1020 GMT, Pirelli shares were up 1.4% to 6.03 euros. This was above the conversion rate. Two banking sources, one of whom is a bond expert, said that these bonds can be converted to the full amount or almost to the full amount, since they enable shares to purchased at a lower price than market value. The bond, if converted to its full value, would create 85.48 millions new Pirelli shares in addition to the 1 billion currently existing shares. The stakes of existing Pirelli shareholders will be diluted. Sinochem and Camfin declined to comment on the matter, including whether or not they hold convertible bonds issued by Pirelli. Two sources said that if they don't, Sinochem could lose as much as 2 percentage points of its current 27.4% and Camfin could lose as much as 34.1%. Camfin's board has authorized it to increase its share in Pirelli to 29,9% by next October. Pirelli will announce the results of its?bond conversion procedure later this week. Holders of bonds who do not convert their bonds when the market value is higher than the conversion rate will not receive any return over the life of the bond.
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Indonesia President expects Sumatra floods to return to normal within 2-3 months, as the death toll has exceeded 1,000
Indonesian President Prabowo?Subianto? said on Monday that activities in areas of Sumatra which were affected by deadly 'floods' may return to normal within the next two months. According to official data, the death toll of the floods and landslides caused by the cyclone in Sumatra late last month, which destroyed homes and forced people into emergency centres, has reached 1,030 people as of today, while 206 are still missing. About 200 people were also killed in Malaysia and southern Thailand by the storms. Prabowo said at a cabinet meeting on Monday, that the reconstruction of the three provinces affected was already in progress. He added that he had apologised for the fact that authorities couldn't realistically finish the process within a few days. He said: "I don’t have the staff of Moses," in reference to the ability to perform miracles by the biblical figure. "We can't finish this in just 3-5 days." In 2-3 months the activities may return to normal. Prabowo announced that authorities will soon build hundreds temporary homes for the displaced. Senior government officials said that the cost of reconstruction in Sumatra would be at least $3.11 Billion. Green groups claim that deforestation caused by mining and logging has exacerbated floods. Indonesia's Environment Ministry has temporarily stopped the operations of companies that have been accused of violating environmental laws. Prabowo said on Monday that any company found to be in violation of rules during an audit should have their permit revoked. The Indonesian forest minister announced earlier Monday that the country would revoke 22 permits for forest use covering more than?1,000,000 hectares. The minister didn't directly link the revocation to the flooding, even though the permits revoked included more than 100,000 acres on Sumatra. Prabowo said that on Monday, the situation in Sumatra is under control and that foreign leaders have offered assistance. "I said thanks for your concern. We can handle it," said he. (Reporting and editing by David Stanway; Stanley Widianto, Stefanno Sulaiman)
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Documents show that the US has demanded that EU exempt their gas from the methane emission law.
A document from the U.S. Government, seen by, shows that the United States wants the European Union to exempt oil and gas imports from the methane emission law of the bloc until 2035. The EU will require importers of gas and oil to Europe, starting this year, to report and monitor the methane emission associated with these imports. This is in an effort to reduce the emissions of the powerful planet-warming gas. Chris Wright, the U.S. Energy secretary, has criticized this 'world-first' climate policy. He has said that it is impossible to implement and has warned it may disrupt U.S. Gas supplies to Europe. European countries are increasing the imports of U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas, as they rush to reduce their oil and gas imports. In a document from the U.S. government, which was reviewed by the, it stated that, in the absence a "full-repeal" of the EU legislation, the United States suggested that the EU "delay the requirement for U.S. emission data reporting under EUMR [EU Methane Regulation] to October 2035". The document was distributed to EU member governments ahead of Monday's meeting of their energy ministers. A spokesperson from the U.S. Mission to the EU did not respond immediately to a comment request. The spokesperson for the European Commission did not confirm immediately if they had received the U.S. document. (Reporting and editing by Louise Rasmussen, Bart Meijer and Kate Abnett)
Gold nears 3-week high on rate-cut betting and US shutdown optimism
Gold prices continued to rise on Tuesday, reaching their highest level for nearly three weeks. This was due to growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in December. There were also signs that the U.S. Government shutdown would be ending.
As of 0458 GMT spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,142.72 an ounce. This is the highest it has been since October 23. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 0.7%, to $4148.80 an ounce.
The U.S. Senate approved a deal Monday to restore federal funding, ending the longest government shut down.
The shutdown has delayed key economic indicators, such as the report on non-farm payrolls. The reopening of the government in the next few days will provide more clarity about the U.S. economy and the Fed interest rate trajectory.
Ilya Spirak, global macro head at Tastylive said that "the idea that the shutdown was ending was more met with a lifting of a level uncertainty that allowed markets to reengage in what had been one of the most important speculative stories this year."
The bias for the remainder of the year still favors the upside. The path of least resistence for gold at this point is back to the October high and we may be heading higher after that.
Data released last week showed that the U.S. economy lost jobs in October, mainly due to losses in the retail and government sectors.
A survey released on Friday showed that the U.S. consumer's sentiment had fallen to its lowest level in three-and-a half years at the beginning of November, amid concerns about the impact the shutdown would have on the economy.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in an approximately 64% chance that the Fed is going to cut rates by 25 basis point next month.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran stated on Monday that a rate cut of 50 basis points would be appropriate in December. He noted that the inflation rate was falling, while the unemployment rate was rising.
Gold that does not yield tends to perform well when interest rates are low and economic uncertainty is present.
Silver spot gained 0.8%, to $50.94 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.4%, to $1.584.40, and palladium increased 1.4%, to $1.435.43. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich, Subhranshu Sahu and Brijesh patel in Bengaluru).
(source: Reuters)