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China's steel exports set to reach record levels, threatening further tariff backlash
China's exports of steel are expected to reach a record high in this year. This is despite predictions that trade barriers would cause shipments to drop. They also threaten to trigger a fiercer backlash from protectionists against the world's largest producer. According to 11 analysts who had predicted earlier in the year that exports were going to fall, they expect to see a growth of 4% to 9% to between 115 and 120 millions metric tons this year. China's record exports, which produce more than half the world's metal, highlight the need for new markets to absorb the metal, as its consumption peaked at the end of 2020, before the collapse of property prices. Steelmakers are also concerned that trade barriers may continue to rise. Three analysts and one trader, who spoke under condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the issue in China, believe that it is better to sell as much now as possible. This fear could become self-fulfilling, as the export push reshapes flows globally and encourages countries to shut down their markets in order to support domestic steelmaking. China Trade Remedies Information reports that 54 tariffs or other trade barriers will be imposed on Chinese steel starting in 2024. This is more than what was imposed between 2019 and 2023. Analysts believe that more exports will lead to further restrictions. The European Union announced earlier this month that it would look for new ways to reduce steel imports. Mexico announced a plan on Thursday to increase tariffs on Chinese imports including steel. PIVOT PIVOT PIVOT The last peak in steel exports was in 2015. However, rising trade barriers as well as a boom in the Chinese property market that increased demand for construction steel reversed this trend. Steelmakers maintain exports by focusing on new markets with lower barriers or no barriers at all. Baosteel or Baoshan Iron & Steel, China's largest listed company, reported last month that exports to emerging markets such as the Middle East, Central Asia, and North Africa are growing rapidly. The company forecasts 10 million tons of exports this year. In the first seven-month period of this year, steel exports from Canada to Saudi Arabia rose by 24%, Malaysia by 14% and Thailand by 13%, respectively, compared with a year ago. Malaysia imposed antidumping duties on certain imports in July. In a late-August note, the China Iron and Steel Association, backed by the government, said that China's exports fell 20% and 10% respectively in the first seven-month period to its major trading partners Vietnam and South Korea. Both countries have also implemented anti-dumping sanctions. "It is a very brutal market for traders." There are very few orders coming from Vietnam or South Korea. We must now develop new markets, said a steel trader in east China. Steelmakers in China are turning to simpler products such as steel billets - semi-finished blocks made of raw metal because they attract lower tariffs. The exports of billets were three times greater in the first seven month of this year than they had been a year ago, and shipments of steel bars, which are used in construction, grew by 77%. Customs data revealed that hot-rolled wide thin steel strips, which are used in manufacturing, and often subject to tariffs fell by 23%. Alexis Ellender is the senior lead for dry bulk insights, Kpler. She said that China's exports are suffering because of its shift to unfinished, lower-value products, despite their record volume. Customs data revealed that steel exports increased 10% in volume during the first eight month of the year, but declined 1% in value. "The rise in semis exports can be a sign of exports nearing their peak. Semis are more profitable to export than finished steel. It shows that the market is under pressure", said Tomas Gutierrez. He is head of data for consultancy Kallanish Commodities. THE PEAK The Chinese government is also opposed to the increasing exports of semifinished products. Beijing wants steelmakers add value, and is considering higher export taxes in order to discourage the shipment of lower-valued steel. Some analysts believe that exports are likely to peak this year due to a combination of the new wave in protectionism and these factors. "Overseas market saturation and trade barriers are increasing." Gutierrez said that selling overseas won't be any easier. Kpler predicts that China's exports of steel will decline to between 100 and 105 millions tons by 2026. Three analysts predict volume will fall below 100 million. Exports of around 100 million tonnes would still be higher than the total steel production in every other country except India. Baosteel's general manager Baojun Lu said during a call to discuss earnings last month that "this year we have experienced record trade disputes, including anti-dumping duty." But as a large steel company, we have to export."
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Gold's uptrend is intact but it will need to correct before reaching $4,000 by 2026
Gold's spectacular rally to successive records highs is expected to continue for the remainder of the year. However, a healthy correction will be needed before it reaches the $4,000 an ounce milestone, which is set for 2026. Investors have been prompted to buy gold by strong tailwinds including expectations of monetary easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The long-term bull run in gold looks intact as demand, especially from central banks, and ETFs continues to increase at a faster rate," Renisha chainani, head research at Mumbai refiner Augmont, said on the sidelines at the India Gold Conference, held in New Delhi. She said, "But gold has reached overbought levels and could see a short-term correction of 5-6% before consolidating again and reaching new highs in 2026 above $4,200." Gold spot was trading at around $3,680 an ounce on Wednesday, after reaching a session record of $3,689.27. It has gained 40% this year following a 27% increase in 2024. Nearly all participants in the industry at the conference expected gold's bull market to continue through 2026, based on a decline in U.S. rates of interest, strong demand for investment and geopolitical risk. Analysts have hedged prices to reach $4,000 by 2026. It's hard to say because the price is rising faster than expected, according to Nicholas Frappell of ABC Refinery, who heads global institutional markets. At the end of its monetary policy meeting, scheduled for September 17, it is widely expected that the U.S. Central Bank will cut interest rates. Trump has repeatedly criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's slowness and urged the Fed to reduce rates. Gold is a popular hedge against geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties. It also flourishes in an environment of low interest rates. Metals Focus' managing director, Philip Newman, said that gold prices have not been in this range for too long. The firm anticipates the price to rise to $3,800 by the end of the calendar year. We could see a possible correction after this price rally. But we also see it as an opportunity for investors to enter the market who have been waiting. In 2026, we could see gold prices rise above $4,000." SILVER BREAKOUT Silver, a metal that is both an investment and used for solar and electronics, has done well due to the strength of gold and the strong physical demand during this time of deficit concerns. On Tuesday, the metal reached its highest price in 14 years at $42,50 an ounce. Silver prices have been boosted by growing investor interest, said Chirag Thakkar. He is the chief executive officer of Amrapali Group Gujarat.
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Google invests $6.8 billion in the UK ahead of Trump's visit
Google announced on Tuesday that it will make new investments of 5 billion pounds (6.80 billion dollars) into Britain in advance of U.S. president Donald Trump's visit to the nation, which is expected feature a flurry business deals and partnership. The U.S. technology company announced also the opening of a data centre near London to meet growing demand for AI-powered Google Cloud, Search and Maps services. In a statement, finance minister Rachel Reeves stated that the investment was "a powerful vote for confidence in the UK's economy and our strong partnership with the US". Alphabet's company stated that the investment will create 8,250 new jobs each year at British companies. The announcement is expected to be a boost to the Labour government of British Prime Minister Keir starmer, who hopes to attract private investments to help grow an economy that has been stagnant and to regain momentum on national opinion polls. Trump's visit will also be expected to strengthen economic ties between both Western allies. Senior U.S. government officials have stated that deals worth more than $10 billion will be announced. Google said in its statement that it has also agreed to a deal Shell, which will contribute to grid stabilization and Britain's transition towards a cleaner energy. Google's Waltham Cross Data Centre, located about an hour from London, is equipped with air-cooling technologies to reduce water consumption and can reroute heat to homes or local businesses to minimise its environmental impact. Google's UK operations will be running at or close to 95% carbon-free energy by 2026, thanks to its clean-energy initiatives and its partnership with Shell.
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Morning bid Europe-Fed begins September meeting with the threat of independence
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like tomorrow. On Tuesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin its two-day meeting where a rate cut has been all but priced into the market. This is at a moment when the White House is putting unprecedented pressure on the central bank to change the direction of the monetary policy. On Monday, the U.S. Senate narrowly confirmed Stephen Miran as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. This gave President Donald Trump's chief economic adviser one of twelve votes to set interest rates on the eve of a policy meeting. Miran is expected to attend the policy meeting, pending his swearing in and completion of paperwork. Lisa Cook, the Fed governor, is also able to attend despite a Supreme Court intervention at the last minute. A U.S. court of appeals ruled on Monday that Trump couldn't fire her. The markets reacted little to the news, but the development was a reminder that Trump is stamping his mark on the bank. He's changing its image in the public's eyes and among peer institutions. And he influences policy and other decisions. The markets were in a wait-and-see attitude ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. Stocks in Asia reached new highs, while the U.S. Dollar struggled to gain traction. The markets have priced in the 25 basis point cut, with some even pricing in a 50 basis point move. This is despite Trump's call for a "bigger cut" from the Fed. Investors will have UK retail sales data, as well as U.S. retail employment figures to digest later Tuesday. The Bank of England continues to be concerned about the still-high wage growth in Britain, even though the wider labour market is showing signs of cooling. The average weekly earnings are expected to have grown 4.8% between May and July, as opposed to 5.0% from April-June. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate will likely remain at 4.7%. A poll of economists showed that the BoE will likely keep its benchmark rate at 2% this week, despite inflation rates creeping up. However, it is expected to reduce interest rates once next quarter, and then again in early 2019. The following are the key developments that may influence Tuesday's markets: * UK labour market data (July) * U.S. retail sales (August) The two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee begins
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Iron ore is a robust alternative to China's soft steel: Russell
In August, the gap between China's steel industry and its appetite for iron ore imports widened. This highlights the difference between hope and reality. China, which produces just over half the world's steel, saw its output fall for a third consecutive month in August, to 77.37 millions metric tons. The month was the weakest since December and was down by 0.7% compared to August and 2.9% compared to the 79.66 millions tons recorded in July. The steel output in the first eight-month period was 671.81 millions tons, which is a decrease of 2.8% compared to the same period last year. Iron ore imports and prices remain robust, despite the weakness in steel. According to data released by the Chinese government last week, China imported 105.23 millions tons of seaborne iron ore in August. This was the third consecutive month that imports were above 100 million tonnes. This trend is expected to continue into September when commodity analysts Kpler predict imports of 112,2 million tons. If achieved, this would be the highest level since December last. Iron ore prices have also been rising, with benchmark futures at the Singapore Exchange closing Monday at $105.50 per ton, just under the six-month peak of $106.75 reached on September 9. The front-month contract has increased 13% since its lowest point of this year, which was $93.35 per ton on July 1. The price of iron ore is rising due to the strong Chinese demand. But why are steel mills purchasing more of this key raw material when they are experiencing lower production and shrinking margins? Answer: They are still hopeful that Beijing's efforts at stimulating steel-intensive industries, such as construction will be fruitful. It is difficult to prove this, as new home prices dropped by 0.3% from August of the previous month. This is a continuation of a downward trend which began in May 2023. The number of new construction starts is also low, falling 19.5% from August 2024 to August 2018. RECOVERY OF STEEL IN SEPTEMBER The positive side is that there's optimism about the steel production in September, after a soft August. Some of this was blamed for production curbs during the lead-up to Beijing’s military parade to celebrate the end of World War Two on September 3. Even if the steel production does improve in September, it is unclear how large or long-lasting this recovery will be. Beijing is thought to have an informal goal that the annual steel production be kept at the same level of around 1 billion tonnes that has prevailed over the last five years. After subtracting the total steel production for the year from 1 billion tons, there are 328 millions tons left over to use in the final four months of the calendar year. This is an average of about 82 million tonnes per month. There is room for growth in the third quarter and September. The visible inventories of iron ore and steel have increased but remain at levels which suggest that more stockpiles could be added. Stocks of steel rebar SteelHome consultants monitored the rise to 4,69 million tons during the week ending September 12. Rebar stocks tend to peak in March after a build-up over the winter months. The current level, however, is below the peak of March 2025 at 6.36 million tonnes and the 8.37 millions tons from March 2024. Iron ore stocks at China's port The week ending September 12 saw a drop to 132.6 millions tons from the 149.4 that was recorded in the same period last year. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Peak Rare Earths, Australia's rare earths company, accepts a $130 million Shenghe bid; rejects a higher U.S. offer
Peak Rare Earths, a company based in Australia, said it had approved the takeover of Shenghe Resources by a Chinese rare earths producer. The decision was made to choose certainty over a more lucrative but conditional U.S. bid. Shenghe Singapore will purchase all shares of Peak that it does not own at A$0.443 per share. This value is A$195 ($129.9 millions) for the miner. The Chinese company holds a stake of about 19.7% in the Australian miner. The approval came after General Innovation Capital Partners, a U.S.-based company, made a non-binding bid of A$240m. rejected The bid was rejected earlier on Tuesday due to a lack of clarity regarding due diligence and execution. Shenghe has said that it will not support the proposal of GICP. Shenghe is a partly state-owned company raised Its offer, which was made earlier in the month, increased by over 23% mid-May . This would allow it to control Peak's Ngualla Project in Tanzania, which is one of the largest deposits of neodymium & praseodymium(NdPr), crucial for electric vehicles. Shenghe is expanding its presence in Australia's rare-earths sector. In 2022, Shenghe purchased nearly 20% of Peak and signed a contract to buy Ngualla products that same year. Canberra is examining the possibility of a deal. Price floor Support critical mineral projects and position yourself as an alternative supplier to China. The peak share price rose by 3.6%, to A$0.435 at 0313 GMT. This is the highest it has been in over two years.
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Google invests $6.8 billion in the UK ahead of Trump's visit
Google announced on Tuesday that it will make new investments of 5 billion pounds (6.80 billion dollars) into Britain in advance of U.S. president Donald Trump's visit to the nation, which is expected feature a flurry business deals and partnership. The U.S. technology company announced also the opening of a data centre near London to meet the growing demand for AI-powered Google Cloud, Search and Maps, as well as Workspace. In a statement, finance minister Rachel Reeves stated that the investment was "a powerful vote for confidence in the UK's economy and our strong partnership with the US". Alphabet's company stated that the investment will create 8,250 new jobs each year at British companies. The announcement is expected to be a boost to the Labour government of British Prime Minister Keir starmer, who hopes to attract private investments to help grow an economy that has been stagnant and to regain momentum on national opinion polls. Trump's visit will also be expected to strengthen economic ties between both Western allies. Senior U.S. government officials have stated that deals worth more than $10 billion will be announced. Google said in its statement that it has also agreed to a deal Shell, which will contribute to grid stabilization and Britain's transition towards a cleaner energy. Google's Waltham Cross Data Centre, located about an hour from London, is equipped with air-cooling technologies to reduce water consumption and can reroute heat to homes or local businesses to minimise its environmental impact. Google's UK operations will be running at or close to 95% carbon-free energy by 2026, thanks to its clean-energy initiatives and its partnership with Shell.
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As the market assesses the supply risk posed by Russian refinery attacks, oil prices are on the rise.
The price of oil edged upwards on Tuesday, after rising the previous day. Market participants were concerned about a possible disruption in supply from Russia following drone attacks by Ukraine on its refineries. Brent crude futures were up 15 cents at $67.59 per barrel as of 0354 GMT, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was also up 15-cents. Brent crude settled at $67.44, up 45 cents. WTI closed 61 cents higher on Monday at $63.30. Ukraine intensified its attacks on Russia's infrastructure to undermine Moscow's military capability as the talks to end their war have stagnated. In a note to clients, Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that "heightened fears of supply disruptions by Russia, a major producer accounting for more than 10% of the global oil output", is helping oil price. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that the government will not impose any additional tariffs on Chinese products to encourage China's purchase of Russian oil, unless European countries impose steep duties on China and India. Analysts at JP Morgan said that an attack on a Russian export terminal such as Primorsk would have a greater impact on Russia's ability sell oil overseas, and thus affect export markets. The attack also suggests that there is a growing willingness among oil companies to disrupt the international oil market, which could add upward pressure to oil prices. Investors will also be watching the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17, where the bank is expected to reduce interest rates. Lower borrowing costs may boost fuel demand. Sycamore stated that "a weaker U.S. Dollar, driven by the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this coming week, has further supported crude oil." The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against six other currencies, has fallen to a near-week's low. Oil becomes cheaper for holders of currencies other than the dollar when the dollar falls. The markets also factored in the expectation of a decline in crude inventories in the U.S. in last week's official data, which is expected to be released on Wednesday at 1430 GMT. Energy strategist Walt Chancellor of Macquarie Group stated in a note to clients that U.S. crude stocks are expected to drop by 6.4 million barrels during the week ending September 12. This follows a build-up of 3.9 million a week prior. According to a poll conducted on Monday, analysts expected that U.S. crude and gasoline stocks would have decreased last week while distillate stockpiles likely increased. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing in Bengaluru, Anjana Anil from Bengaluru)
Gold reaches new highs as Fed hopes for rate cuts dent the dollar
The gold price reached a new record on Tuesday. This was largely due to the weakening dollar, which is expected to be a factor in the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for this week.
Gold spot rose by 0.1%, to $3.681.18 an ounce, as of 0326 GMT. It had earlier reached a session high of $3.689.27. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were unchanged at $3,718.50.
"The mood is bullish... the markets are buying rate cuts going into this FOMC Decision." "The outlook for gold remains positive in the short-to-medium term," said Kyle Rodda of Capital.com.
If the Fed does not support this in their forecasts and guidance, gold prices could hit an air pocket. If the Fed supports market pricing, it could be the catalyst that sends gold prices through $3,700.
In a post on social media, U.S. president Donald Trump called for Fed chair Jerome Powell to implement a "bigger cut" to the benchmark interest rate.
CME FedWatch shows that traders are pricing in an almost certain 25 basis-point rate cut by the end of the meeting, which will take place on September 17. There is a slight chance of a reduction of 50 bps.
Gold becomes cheaper when interest rates are lower.
The dollar was trading near a two-and-a-half-month low versus the euro, and close to its 10-month low versus the risky Aussie.
SPDR Gold Trust (the world's biggest gold-backed ETF) said that its holdings increased 0.21% on Monday to 976.80 tons from 974.80 on Friday.
A U.S. court of appeals refused on Monday to allow Donald Trump the firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, the latest move in a legal fight that threatens to undermine the Fed's independence.
Silver spot fell by 0.4%, to $42.52 an ounce. Platinum fell by 0.5%, to $1394.37, and palladium fell 0.3%, to $1180.64. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Nady in Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)