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Stocks surge in late trading as US shutdown looms
On Tuesday, caution ruled the world markets. The dollar and equity prices shook in choppy trading and gold briefly hit a record-high on concerns that a possible U.S. shutdown would delay important jobs data. Donald Trump stated that the United States was likely headed for its 15th shutdown since 1981 and his administration would make irreversible decisions in this scenario. As investors prepared for the shutdown, the dollar fell broadly while U.S. stock markets managed to recover early losses and end slightly higher. The possibility of a U.S. shutdown puts the spotlight on jobs. A government shut down would delay this Friday's release of important employment statistics. This report, released by the Department of Labor on Tuesday, showed that U.S. hiring was down in August and job openings were up marginally. The Federal Reserve could cut rates again next year despite the resilient consumer spending, if labor market conditions remain weak. Monica Guerra of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, who is the head of U.S. Policy, said that a full-government shutdown on October 1, appears to be more likely. The U.S. stock market suffered modest losses throughout the day, before making gains in the last hours of trading. The S&P 500 gained 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2%. And the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.3%. Wall Street's gains Tuesday were the culmination of a stellar month for U.S. stock prices. The S&P 500 had its best September ever with a 3.5% gain. The MSCI All-World Index rose 0.4% after the late surge in U.S. stocks. The Nikkei, Japan's stock market, closed at a loss of 0.25%. The STOXX 600 rose 1% for the month. This is its best performance since May. Shaniel Ramjee is the co-head of Pictet Asset Management's multi-asset division. "The earnings picture is improving quite significantly at the same moment that central banks around the world are cutting interest rates, and global growth continues to be good." The Australian dollar gained after the central banks held rates at their current levels, as was widely expected. Oil prices dropped more than 1% due to the prospect of increased production by OPEC+. Meanwhile, China's manufacturing activity declined for a sixth consecutive month in September. A GOLDEN MONTH Gold's impressive rally was boosted by the threat of a government shutdown. Gold briefly reached a record of $3,871.45 an ounce before trading down on the day. It is on track to achieve its largest monthly percentage gain in July 2020. The dollar fell 0.5% to 147.9yen while the euro remained flat at $1.17355. Both the Swiss Franc and the pound also firmed up against the dollar. The dollar index is expected to finish September with little change. ING currency analysts wrote in a report that the yen would likely outperform as a hedge against a U.S. shutdown. The Fed will be calculating the timing of rate reductions based on the September employment report, which is due this Friday. The Fed's meeting on October 29 could be thrown into confusion by a prolonged government shutdown. China's purchasing manager's index increased to 49.8 from 49.4 at the end of August. This is below 50, which separates growth from contraction. The report suggested that producers were waiting for more stimulus to boost the domestic demand as well as clarification on a U.S. Trade Deal. China's blue chip CSI300 Index gained almost 0.5%. This is the longest streak of gains since October 2017, and it was also its fifth consecutive month. Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 3.60%. Recent data indicated that inflation could be higher than expected in the third quarter, and the economic outlook was uncertain. The data that showed an increase in inflation in four important German states did not have a significant impact on the market. The oil price remained weaker because of an expected production increase by OPEC+, and the resumption in Iraq's Kurdistan. Brent crude oil fell by 1.3%, to $67.10 a barrel. U.S. crude dropped 1.5%, to $62.51.
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Three years after the giant sinkhole, residents of a mining town in Chile are still haunted by it
Residents of Tierra Amarilla, a mining town in the Chilean Desert, are hoping that a recent court ruling will ease their fears over a huge sinkhole which opened up near their homes three years ago but remains unfilled. This month, a Chilean environmental court ordered Minera Ojos del Salado owned by Canada's Lundin Mining to repair environmental damages related to its Alcaparrosa Copper Mine, which it is believed to have caused the sinkhole to appear in 2022. The company is required to fill the sinkhole and protect the water supply in the area. The cylindrical crater was originally 64 meters (210 feet) deep and 32 metres (105 feet) wide on the surface. This has brought some relief to the residents of Tierra Amarilla, a region in central Atacama in Chile that is arid. They fear that if they don't fix it soon, this gaping hole will swallow more land. Rudy Alfaro's home is located 800 meters away from the sinkhole. "We have lived in fear ever since it happened," he said. She said that a health center and preschool were also nearby. We were afraid that it would grow, expand and move towards the houses. She said that the sinkhole emitted dust clouds during a recent earthquake. This caused more anxiety. The court confirmed that the Chilean environmental regulator had ordered the closure of the Alcaparrosa small mine in January. It also confirmed the "irreversible damage" to an aquifer which allowed water to drain into the mine, causing it to weaken the rock surrounding the mine. Rodrigo Saez said, "This is harmful to an area which is already hydrologically stressed." Lundin has said that it will work closely with the authorities to implement remediation. (Writing and editing by Rosalba o'Brien, Daina Beth Solon)
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Ukraine warns about the critical situation at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant
The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated on Tuesday that the situation at Zaporizhzhia's nuclear power plant, which is occupied by Russia, had reached a critical stage. Russian shelling prevented the restoration of the power necessary to cool down the reactors and avoid a meltdown. Zelenskiy said in his video nightly address that one of the diesel-powered generators providing emergency electricity no longer worked seven days after external electrical lines were down. "This is the seventh. Never before has there been an emergency at the Zaporizhzhia Plant. Situation is critical. Zelenskiy stated that the Russian shelling had cut off the plant from the electricity grid. In the first weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant was taken by Russian troops. Both sides accuse each other of attacks which endanger the safety of nuclear power. The plant does not produce electricity, but it needs power in order to keep the fuel cool and prevent a meltdown. The plant was disconnected for the 10th time since the beginning of the conflict. "This is a danger to all." No terrorist has ever done with a nuclear plant what Russia does now. It is important that the world does not remain silent." The Russian government has not responded to the latest reports on the conditions at the Zaporizhzhia Plant. Rafael Grossi is the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. nuclear watchdog. He condemned the cutting off of external power lines, but he did not assign blame to any side. Grossi has repeatedly urged both sides to maintain nuclear safety. IAEA monitors have been stationed at Zaporizhzhia as well as Ukraine's other three nuclear power plants. (Reporting and editing by Chris Reese, Lisa Shumaker and Oleksandr Kozoukhar)
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US Department of Energy selects Oklo and three other projects for nuclear fuel lines
The U.S. Department of Energy announced on Tuesday that it had selected Sam Altman's nuclear technology company Oklo as well as Terrestrial Energy TRISO X and Valar Atomics to be part of its new pilot project for advanced nuclear fuellines. The announcement is part of efforts by the Trump Administration to improve domestic supply chains of nuclear fuel, and to support the DOE Reactor Pilot Program which expects at least three reactors to reach criticality before July 4, 2026. After decades of stagnation in the U.S., nuclear power is on the rise again. This is due to the surge in electricity demand for energy-hungry computer centers as well as electrifications of manufacturing and transportation industries. In May, President Donald Trump signed executive orders to reform the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), an independent agency. The aim was to accelerate nuclear reactor permits and reform this independent agency. The orders permit the Energy Department, without NRC approval, to approve the test reactors. The DOE announced in August that it had selected 11 projects as part of a pilot project to build high-tech nuclear test reactors. At least three of these reactors are expected to be operational within a year. The DOE Reactor Program initially selected Oklo, Terrestrial Energy, and Valar Atomics. Tuesday's announcement expanded access to advanced fuel needed to test and deploy their designs. The DOE stated that each company would be responsible for the costs of designing, manufacturing and constructing their test reactors, as well as operating them. (Reporting and editing by Alan Barona in Bengaluru, Katha Kalia)
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Brazil's Competition Authority allows the soy moratorium indefinitely pending a year-end ruling
The Brazilian competition watchdog approved on Tuesday that the country's soy ban will continue through at least the end of this year. CADE's 5-1 vote marked a dramatic change after its reporting councilor in the case voted against the appeal of soybean traders and processors. The private pact, which has been in place for two decades, aims to protect the Amazonian rainforest by prohibiting soybean traders from purchasing from farmers who have cleared land after July 2008. However, it could be a violation of Brazilian competition laws. Back and Forth CADE's Superintendent ordered the agreement to be suspended in August. He argued that it was a cartel and gave signatory companies unfair advantages over farmers. On appeal by trading companies, the federal judge halted this order pending an in-depth review by CADE. The superintendent made the decision on Tuesday, but councilor Carlos Jacques Gomes backed it up. He cited competition concerns and raised concerns over the pact’s potential to increase trading companies' bargaining power when buying soybeans from farmers. TIME FOR DIALOGUE Gomes was followed immediately by councilor Jose Levi Mello do Amaral Junior who granted the trading company's appeal in part, ordering that the suspension of the agreement be delayed until December 31. Amaral junior, joined by his colleagues, said that freezing the suspension would give traders and processors the time they need to speak with soybean producers who claim the moratorium is a cartel. The Council President Gustavo Augusto Freitas de Lima granted Amaral Jr. more time to make a decision, but disagreed with him on other issues. REACTIONS OF THE INDUSTRY Abiove, an industry group that represents soybean traders and processors, and was involved in this lawsuit, stated that the new deadline would allow more time to find a solution. In a press release, it stated that "Abiove continues to monitor the developments at CADE" and is available to work with relevant authorities in order to promote legal predictability and regulatory certainty in the sector. (Reporting and editing by Gabriel Araujo, Leslie Adler and Roberto Samora)
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Caution is urged as the US government shutdown approaches
On Tuesday, caution ruled the world markets. The dollar and stocks fell and gold briefly hit record highs as investors worried that a possible U.S. shutdown would delay important jobs data. Donald Trump stated that the United States was likely headed for its 15th shutdown since 1981 and that his administration would be able to make irreversible decisions in this scenario. Investors prepared for a government shutdown that would begin after a midnight deadline passed to come up with a new funding agreement. The dollar fell and U.S. stock prices also dropped. The prospect of a U.S. shutdown puts the spotlight on jobs. A government shut down would delay Friday's important employment figures, and instead focus attention on the Labor Department's JOLTS Report from Tuesday. This report showed that U.S. hiring decreased in August but job openings rose marginally. The Federal Reserve could cut rates again next year despite the resilient consumer spending, if labor market conditions remain weak. Monica Guerra of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, who is the head of U.S. Policy, said that a full-government shutdown on October 1, appears to be more likely. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3%. Wall Street's lackluster performance weighed on the MSCI All-World Index, which was flat. The Nikkei, Japan's stock market, closed at a loss of 0.25%. The STOXX 600 rose 1% for the month. This is its best performance since May. China's blue chip CSI300 Index rose nearly 0.5%. This is the longest streak of gains since October 2017 and it marks its fifth consecutive month. Overall, the outlook for equities remains positive, as U.S. shares are expected to end September with a gain of more than 3%, and European stocks have had their best month since last May. Shaniel Ramjee is the co-head of Pictet Asset Management's multi-asset division. "The earnings picture is improving quite significantly at the same moment that central banks around the world are cutting interest rates, and global growth continues to be good." The Australian dollar gained after the central banks held policy rates at their current levels, as was widely expected. Oil prices dropped over 1% due to the prospect of increased production by OPEC+. Meanwhile, China's manufacturing activity declined for a sixth consecutive month in September. A GOLDEN MONTH The risk of a shutdown has added to the stunning rally. Gold briefly reached a record high of $3.871.45 an ounce, before trading lower for the day. It is on track to achieve its largest monthly percentage gain in July 2020. The dollar fell 0.6% to 147.70yen while the euro rose 0.3% to $1.1757. Both the Swiss Franc and the pound also gained a little against the dollar. The dollar index is expected to finish September with little change, despite the recent 0.3% decline. The uncertainty over the U.S. government shutdown increased demand for U.S. Treasury 10-year bonds and pushed the yield to 4.1329%. ING currency analysts wrote in a report that the yen would likely outperform as a hedge against a U.S. shutdown. The Fed will be calculating the timing of rate reductions based on the September employment report, which is due this Friday. The Fed's meeting on October 29 could be thrown into confusion by a prolonged government shutdown. China's purchasing manager's index increased to 49.8 from 49.4 at the end of August. This is below 50, which separates growth from contraction. The report suggested that producers were waiting for more stimulus to boost the domestic demand as well as clarification on a U.S. Trade Deal. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 3.60%. Recent data indicated that inflation could be higher than expected in the third quarter, and the economic outlook was uncertain. The data that showed an increase in inflation in four important German states did not have a significant impact on the market. The oil price remained weaker because of an expected production increase by OPEC+, and the resumption in Iraq's Kurdistan. Brent crude oil fell by 1.3%, to $67.10 a barrel. U.S. crude dropped 1.3%, to $62.60.
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Trump warns Democrats about 'irreversible actions' in the government shutdown
U.S. president Donald Trump warned Congress Democrats on Tuesday, that allowing the government to shut down by midnight would allow him to take "irreversible actions" including closing programs important to them. Trump told reporters in the White House Oval Office that he could do things during the shut down that were irreversible. They would be bad for them as well as irreversible themselves, such as removing a large number of people, cutting the things they want, and cutting the programs they enjoy. Trump continued, "You know Russell Vought." He was referring to the Director of the Office of Management and Budget. "He has become popular in recent years because he is able to trim the budget at a level you could not do otherwise." Trump has not specified the specific actions he may take. However, he recently raised the possibility of further reducing the federal workforce. The United States will be entering its 15th shutdown since 1981 at midnight unless Republicans in Congress and Democrats agree on a temporary funding deal with the start of Wednesday's new fiscal year. However, there were no signs that such a result was likely. The Republican-controlled Senate is expected to vote on a temporary spending bill that has failed once already, with no sign that a second vote will bring success before the midnight deadline (0400 GMT Wednesday). Democrats are modifying the bill in order to extend the health benefits of millions of Americans, which expires at the end the year. Republicans insist that they must address this issue separately. Washington has become used to budget-related arguments, which are usually resolved in the last moment. In 2018 and 2019 the government shut down 35 days due to an immigration dispute. The TRILLION-DOLLAR FIGHT The $1.7 trillion allocated to agency operations represents roughly a quarter of the $7 trillion total budget. The remainder is used to fund health and retirement plans and interest on the $37.5 trillion growing debt. Federal agencies began to release detailed plans which would shut down offices that conducted scientific research, customer services, and other non-essential activities and send thousands home if Congress did not agree on a solution before funding expired. Budget experts warned some Americans could already be feeling the impact. Jonathan Burks of the Bipartisan policy Center, a health expert, explained that Medicare reimbursements at home for "acute hospital" care could be disrupted. Patients would then need to seek out inpatient facilities. He told reporters on Tuesday morning that "that's a serious disruption right now." He also said that Medicare reimbursements of telehealth medical appointments would expire midnight. Airlines have warned that a shutdown may slow down flights. The Labor Department has also announced it will not release its monthly unemployment report - a barometer closely watched for economic health. Small Business Administration announced it would cease issuing loans. The Environmental Protection Agency also said that it would suspend certain pollution-cleanup activities. The more time a shutdown is in place, the greater the impact. Bipartisan Policy Centre experts say that public housing subsidies for families with low incomes could shrink and that some Head Start early childhood education programs could experience delays in receiving grant money. DEEPFAKE VIDEO The White House meeting between Trump and leaders of Congress on Monday ended in a deadlock. Trump posted a deepfake clip showing manipulated images that showed Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer criticizing Democrats, while Hakeem Jeffreys stood beside him with a crudely-drawn sombrero over his face. Jeffries told reporters outside the U.S. Capitol that he would not accept Trump's response by using a fake AI video or racist language. Say it to me when I return to the Oval Office. Any last-minute agreement would also have to be approved by the Republican-controlled House, which is not due to convene until Wednesday, after funding expires. ADMINISTRATION TREATES MORE LAYOFFS Trump's willingness this time to ignore the spending laws passed by Congress is causing more uncertainty. He has also threatened to continue his purge of federal employees if Congress permits the government to close. He ordered agencies in the spring to consider letting go of "non-essential" employees, who would normally be told not to work if there was a government shutdown. Trump also refuses to spend billions approved by Congress. This has led some Democrats to wonder why they should vote in favor of any legislation that involves spending. Even though Republicans control both chambers, they still need seven Democratic votes in the Senate to pass any legislation. Democrats also wanted to make sure that Trump would not be able undo the changes made by Trump if they were signed into law. Democrats, who are locked out of Washington power, face pressure from their supporters to achieve a rare win ahead of 2026's midterm elections. These will determine the control of Congress during the last two years of Trump’s term. They have a chance to come together behind a cause that is popular with voters. Some in the party still question whether it's worth risking a shut down. It's not about who gets blamed or politics. "It's about millions of Americans being harmed," Democratic Senator John Fetterman from Pennsylvania told reporters.
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US corn stocks drop before record-large harvest
U.S. grain handlers and farmers had 13% less corn stored ahead of the fall harvest than they did a year ago, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday. However, a record crop is expected to replenish stocks. Low prices have boosted exports this year in the top corn-supplying country in the world, reducing stocks in storage but also making it hard for farmers to make a profit, at a time where costs for fertilizer and seed, among other things, are increasing. In a quarterly report, the USDA stated that as of September 1 there were 1,532 billion bushels in storage. This is down from 1.763 million bushels one year ago. Analysts expected an average of 1.337 billion bushels. After the USDA released its data, corn futures fell as Midwest farmers began to ramp up harvesting. The market dropped below $4 last month and was close to a 4-year low, set in August 2024 due to forecasts of a record crop. The United States livestock industry likely used less corn than expected despite low prices because Washington has blocked the import of Mexican cattle to keep them out. New World Screwworm is a parasite that can be harmful. Analysts said that the disease has spread to Mexico. Don Roose is the president of U.S. Commodities, a brokerage. China, the world's largest importer of soybeans, has also seen its prices fall. No supplies purchased A rare delay occurred in the fall harvest of the United States during Washington's trade war. Chinese importers turned instead to South America for their soy. Analysts said that despite the decline in U.S. stocks, they were still able to reduce them due to strong domestic demand. As of September 1, there were 316,000,000 bushels of soybeans stored, compared to 342,000,000 a year earlier. Analysts expected 323 million bushels. According to USDA, wheat stocks were at a five-year record high of 2,120 billion bushels as of September 1. This is up from 1.992 million bushels one year ago. Analysts expected 2.043 billion bushels. Wheat futures fell after the USDA increased its estimate of U.S. production from 1.927 to 1.985 million bushels. Terry Reilly is the senior agricultural strategist at Marex.
Gold nears record high ahead US inflation data
The gold price hovered at a high level on Wednesday. This was due to expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month. Market participants were also awaiting U.S. inflation figures for clues about its monetary policy.
As of 0821 GMT spot gold was up 0.5%, at $3,643.78 an ounce. It had hit a record high on Tuesday of $3,673.95 per ounce.
U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were flat at $3.682.30.
Ricardo Evangelista is a senior analyst with ActivTrades. He said that gold's gains are due to expectations of Fed rate reductions, and signs of cooling on the U.S. labor market. This has weakened the U.S. dollar.
The Fed's policy meeting in September was prompted by the weakening of the labor market.
The U.S. government reported on Tuesday that the economy probably created 911,000 less jobs than originally estimated in the year through March. This suggests that the job growth had already slowed before President Donald Trump imposed aggressive tariffs on imported goods.
The independent analyst Ross Norman stated that "the outsized revisions to jobs in the U.S. almost certainly add to the pervasive sense of economic unrest and such unexpected economic shifts highlight the role of Gold as a safe haven asset."
According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the markets are pricing in 92% of a rate cut of 25 basis points, and 8% of a more significant 50 basis point cut.
Watch closely the U.S. consumer price inflation and producer price inflation figures on Thursday, both due at 1230 GMT. These will provide more clues about the Fed's rate path.
Gold that does not yield is usually a good investment in an environment with low interest rates.
The gold price has risen 38% this year after a 27% increase in 2024. This is due to a weaker dollar, central bank accumulations, dovish monetary policies and increased global uncertainty.
ANZ Group increased its gold price forecast for the year to end on Wednesday from $3,800 to $4,000 per ounce.
Silver spot increased by 0.4%, to $41.06 an ounce. Platinum rose by 0.2%, to $1 387.45, and palladium increased 0.2%, to $1 1450.73.
(source: Reuters)