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Outgunned Europe accepts the least-worst US Trade Deal

The European Union found that it did not have the leverage it needed to force Donald Trump's America to agree to a trade agreement on their terms. So, it signed a deal which it could just about stomach.

The agreement reached on Sunday on a 15% tariff blanket after months of standoff is a reality-check on the aspirations for the European Union, a 27-country bloc of countries, to become a power economic able to compete with the United States and China.

The cold shower feels all the more refreshing, given that for years the EU has portrayed itself to be a superpower in exports and a champion of rules-based trade. This is both for its own soft power as well as the global economy.

The new tariffs that are now being applied will be much more digestible than Trump's threat to impose a 30% "reciprocal tariff" in the next few days.

It will keep the economy in a rut, even though it is preventing a recession. The European Central Bank forecasted last month that the two scenarios would result in 0.5-0.9% growth in this year's GDP compared to just 1% if there were no trade tensions.

This is a point of landing that was unimaginable just months ago, in the pre Trump 2.0 era. The EU and much of the rest world were accustomed to U.S. Tariffs averaging around 1.5%.

Even though Britain and the United States agreed to a 10% baseline tariff in May, EU officials believed they could do more. They were convinced that the EU had the economic weight to stand up to Trump. So, they pushed for a “zero-for zero” tariff pact.

After a few fruitless weeks of talks with their U.S. colleagues, the Europeans finally accepted that 10% was all they could hope for and it took them a couple more weeks to agree to the same baseline of 15% as the United States did with Japan last Thursday.

One senior official who was briefed in a European city on the negotiations last week as they were closing in at around 15% said: "The EU doesn't have more leverage than America, and the Trump Administration isn't rushing things."

This official, along with others, pointed out the pressure coming from Europe's export oriented businesses to clinch a contract and ease the level of uncertainty that is starting to affect businesses like Nokia in Finland and SSAB in Sweden.

"We got a bad deal." One EU diplomat said that this deal was the best play possible under the circumstances. Recent months have shown clearly how damaging uncertainty on global trade can be for European businesses.

What now?

The final agreement reflects this imbalance, or "asymmetry", as the trade negotiators call it.

The EU has not only promised to invest $600 billion in the United States, but also renounce any retaliation. As yet, the timeframe and other details of this agreement are not defined.

The EU concluded that a full-scale confrontation would be more damaging than a series of talks.

The total amount of retaliatory actions that were threatened was 93 billion Euros - less than half the U.S. goods surplus of 200 billion euro.

It is true that a growing number EU capitals are also prepared to imagine wide-ranging anticoercion measures which would have enabled the bloc to target services trade where the United States enjoyed a surplus in the amount of $75 billion last year.

Even then, however, there was not a clear majority in favor of targeting U.S. digital service providers that Europeans enjoy and there are few homegrown alternatives to - such as Netflix, Uber or Microsoft cloud services.

The question remains whether the European leaders will be encouraged to speed up their economic reforms and diversifications of trading partners, to which they have long sworn allegiance but have been hindered by national divisions.

BGA, the German wholesale and export association, described the deal as an uncomfortable compromise that posed an "existential risk" to many of its members. It was time for Europe's reliance on their biggest trading partner to be reduced.

BGA President Dirk Jandura said, "Let's use the last few months as a warning." "Europe needs to prepare for the future strategically - new trade agreements with the largest industrial powers in the world are needed." Mark John, Nick Zieminski and Jan Strupczewski contributed to the reportage in Brussels. Christian Kraemer in Berlin and Maria Martinez were in Berlin.

(source: Reuters)