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The price of gas in Europe is falling due to strong winds and the ceasefire talks with Ukraine
The Dutch and British gas price continued to drop on Friday morning, amid high expectations for wind power production and talk of a potential ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict. The Dutch front-month contracts > dropped by 0.29 euros to 41.79 Euro per megawatt hour at 0907 GMT on ICE. The Dutch March contract fell by 0.27 euros to 41.66 Euro/MWh. The British front-month contracts were down 0.43 pence to 102.56 p/therm. LSEG data indicated that stronger wind speeds are expected for the beginning of next week. Gas for power in Northwest Europe is forecast to be down 201 gigawatt-hours a day (GWh/d), at 2,908 GWh/d on Monday. The possibility of a Ukrainian ceasefire has also been raised after Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on Thursday that the U.S. proposal was accepted by his country, but any ceasefire must address the root causes of conflict and many details need to be worked out. Putin mentioned a possible energy partnership between the U.S.A. and Russia, and mentioned a pipeline of gas for Europe. Analysts at Energy Aspects stated that the market was hedging between Russian gas flowing back and flow levels remaining subdued. Analysts said that there was still significant opposition from Europe and Ukraine to the restarting of the pipeline flow, along with legal and logistical obstacles. The Trump administration announced on Thursday that a license for energy transactions with Russian financial institutes expired this week. This increased pressure on Putin to reach a peace deal over Ukraine. In a daily comment, LSEG analyst Saku Jussila said: "This could be a bullish catalyst for energy commodities generally but shouldn't affect the European Gas Markets directly." The benchmark carbon contract in Europe fell by 0.80 euros to 69.80 Euros per metric ton. (Reporting by Susanna Twidale, Editing by Shailesh Kuber)
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Polish central bank expects CPI to return to target range by Q3 2026
According to Friday's projection, the inflation rate in Poland will reach the target range of the central bank in the third quarter 2026. It will stay there until the end of 2027. The National Bank of Poland has set an inflation target of 2.5%, plus or minus a percentage point. The price growth rate in January was 4.9%, and preliminary statistics from the Statistics Office indicate that it was also 4.9% for February. The first half of 2025 will see the highest inflation (5.4% for the first quarter, and 5.2% for the second), before it begins to decline in the third. The central bank stated in a recent report that "regulations in the energy sector will increase CPI inflation in 2025, and in the first half 2026." The government's maximum electricity prices are in effect until the third quarter 2025. It has yet to decide whether or not they will be extended. According to the projection published in March, the inflation rate in 2025 is lower than the one predicted in November (5.6% vs. 4.9%), but the estimates for next year have been increased to 3.4%, from 2.7%. A projection shows that Poland’s GDP will grow faster in 2025, from around 3% to 3,7%. This will be supported by an increase in funds coming from the European Union as well as the National Recovery Plan. In 2026 the GDP growth rate will be 3.4% and in 2027 it will be 2.5%. Adam Glapinski, the Polish central bank governor, said that there are no current reasons to cut interest rates due to inflation. The central bank stated that the projection was prepared using data up to 27 February 2025. It assumed unchanged NBP rates, including a reference rate of 5.75 percent. (Reporting and editing by Philippa Flletcher; Pawel Florkiewicz)
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Gold reaches all-time high, flirts with $3,000 mark
Gold, the safe-haven, surged to an all-time high on Friday. It traded close to the $3,000 key mark, propelled largely by trade war concerns and the expectation of a rate reduction by the U.S. Federal Reserve. As of 0847 GMT, spot gold remained flat at $2.990.54 per ounce. Safe-haven gold reached a new record of $2,993.80 earlier in the session. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.4% to $3.004.20. This year, bullion has reached 13 new highs and is expected to continue its upward trend for the second consecutive week. Nitesh Sha, commodities strategist for WisdomTree, said: "Risk is more on the upside as sentiment towards gold has been strong in recent months and may continue if these chaotic policy decisions continue." The tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump have had a major impact on the demand for gold. Trump's threat to impose a tariff of 200% on European alcohol imports is part of the global trade war which has caused financial markets to be roiled and recession fears to rise. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He said that "momentum, and haven demand, driving an increase in ETF holdings" has also supported gold bullion. SPDR Gold Trust (the world's biggest gold-backed ETF) reported its holdings at 905,81 metric tonnes after reaching its highest level in August 2023 late February. Data on Wednesday revealed that consumer prices have cooled more than expected, which suggests the Fed may cut interest rates this year. The Fed will meet again on Wednesday. It is widely expected that the Fed will keep its overnight benchmark interest rate unchanged. Investors anticipate that policymakers will continue to reduce borrowing costs in June. Analysts at ANZ stated that they "maintain our bullish stance" on gold. They expect prices to reach a new record high of $3.050 an ounce by 2025. Spot silver increased 0.5%, to $33.96 per ounce. Platinum fell 0.2%, to $992.15. Palladium rose 1% to $967.42.
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Iron ore nears a two-week high due to resilient demand and China's stimulus bets
Iron ore futures prices rose on Friday, reaching their highest level in almost two weeks. They were also on course for a weekly increase, thanks to a resilient demand, as well as rising expectations about additional stimulus measures from China, the world's largest consumer. The May contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the daytime trading session at its highest level since 3 March at 794 Yuan ($109.79), an increase of 2.5% from week to week. As of 0742 GMT the benchmark April iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange had risen 1.55% to $103.8 per ton. This was the highest price since February 28. This week, the contract has gained 3,3%. China's central banks said that they would reduce interest rates, the reserve ratio for banks and their liquidity at the right time. Steelmakers increased production during March's peak construction season, which has also helped to support prices. A survey by consultancy Mysteel revealed that the average daily hot metal production, which is typically used to gauge demand for iron ore, increased for a third consecutive week, increasing by 0.03% on a weekly basis to 2,31 million tons as of 13 March. China's plans to reduce crude steel production and the escalating trade war in the world, which could dampen outlook for demand, continue to be headwinds that limit further gains. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, have both gained in the DCE. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have advanced. Rebar rose 0.77%; hot-rolled coil climbed 1.53%; wire rod increased 0.78%; and stainless steel ticked up 0.41%.
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The sewage that contaminates Britain's waterways and oceans is a stain.
Under the dark seas of southern England, 400 millions mussels are encrusted on ropes that hang from buoys scattered over an area as large as the largest airport in the country. The Holmyards built Europe's biggest offshore mussel farming in Lyme Bay. They believed that it would be able to handle the millions of gallons sewage that is pumped into UK water each year. Even if the bacteria are far away, they can still pollute the water and block exports for several weeks to Europe. This could damage the business of a company that produces sustainable food. Sarah Holmyard, the sales manager at the farm, said: "It is criminal that they are allowed to dump their waste in the oceans and get away without any consequences." It's affecting a lot of businesses including ours. The Holmyards' problems, while affecting a small industry in Britain, show how the failure of basic services such as water or sewage can have a negative impact on the economy. Interviews with 20 people, and data analyses show that polluted waters have also affected tourism and construction projects. This is a drag on economic growth at a time the new Labour Government is trying to jump start the economy. According to a Freedom of Information Request, in the five years leading up to October 2024 the Environment Agency objected to 60 planning applications because of the pressure they would put on local sewerage networks. Clean water activists have begun to oppose planning applications. They believe that this will more effectively pressure the government to fix the sewage system, than the current efforts which focus on harming biodiversity. Ash Smith, a campaigner with Windrush Against Sewage Pollution, said that "money talks". Standing knee-deep in gray, untreated sewage in a local stream in Oxfordshire, Ash Smith explained that they were opposing house building in order to demonstrate how the water system has broken down the country's overall infrastructure. Pumping sewage into rivers, seas and oceans has been a major scandal for Britain. Privatised water companies are accused of prioritising profits over investments and dumping sewage into waterways when their ailing infrastructure can't cope. The pollution has discouraged wild water swimmers and angered surfer, led to warnings of toxic blue-green algae blooms in lakes, and created an army who are now experts in water quality, after noticing changes in waterways. In England, water companies will discharge sewage for more than 3.6 million hours by 2023. This will pollute streams, rivers, and coastlines with sanitary items and condoms. It could also damage ecosystems and habitats. SEWAGE SPILLS British sewers combine rainwater and wastewater. Water companies can "spill" water into waterways during heavy rains to avoid sewers becoming overloaded. Many have been fined, however, for releasing too much sewage. Environment Agency data shows that South West Water discharged sewage 530,737 times in 2023, an 83% increase from 2022, making it one the worst performers in England. South West Water is looking at ways to improve the water quality in Lyme Bay. We are ensuring that all designated shellfish waters in the region meet the government target of fewer than 10 spills a year, 10 years before the deadline. In addition, we plan to almost double our investment from 2025-30 to 2.5 billion pounds. John Holmyard, his wife Nicki and their plan for a mussel farm was a complex one. After years of farming mussels in the colder waters near Scotland, they looked for a location with warmer water and a good amount of nutrients to help them grow faster. The site had to be sufficiently far offshore to prevent runoff but also have some protection from the sea to reduce the swell. After visiting other similar sites in Britain, Europe and China, they settled on Lyme Bay and spent seven long years getting planning and regulatory approvals - not knowing if their intuition would be right. The Holmyards expect to reach 10,000-12,000 tonnes when the project is complete. John Holmyard who runs the farm with Nicki, Sarah, and George said that they never thought sewage would affect their farm. "But, it hasn't worked out that way." Shellfish producers have been affected by the toxic effects of sewage. Prior to Britain leaving the European Union, mussels or oysters were able to be shipped directly to the continent without purification. After Brexit, only purified products or those from British waters rated Class A will be accepted by the EU. This change has almost completely destroyed the mussel industry in north Wales, on Britain's West Coast. This region used to be the main source of Britain's exports into Europe, but it now only sells to Europe rarely due to a lack in bulk purification and poor water quality. Shellfish Association of Great Britain SAGB says British exports could double if seas are cleaner. James Green harvests and sells shellfish in Whitstable in southeast England, a town famed for its shellfish dating back to Roman times. He used to sell about half his product to markets in Europe and Hong Kong, but Brexit, and issues with water quality, have forced him to only sell purified oysters within the country. Southern Water, his water supplier, will be fined 90 millions pounds in 2021 because it dumped sewage for five years, up to 2015. This caused a disruption in harvests and exports. He was not compensated and said it's hard to wait until improvements. He said, "I have a business." "Can you hold off until the changes kick in in five, six or seven years?" Green tracks rain and sewer overflows in order to assess the risks of harvesting his oysters. He also monitors E.coli, Salmonella, and Norovirus. Southern Water announced that it would invest heavily in order to maintain the high quality of its shellfish beds along its coast. The 2021 court case involving events that occurred between 2010 and 2015. It found no evidence to support the impact of these events on shellfish beds. These beds are affected by a variety of factors. Driven to despair Holmyards mussels have been tested almost daily for E.coli contamination in the Netherlands and always come out within the Class A limits. The British authorities have reported high E. coli numbers in monthly tests of similar nature, and classified parts of the farm as Class B. Negative readings in the British system can result in different harvests. Holmyards was stopped from exporting their mussels from this part of the farm for a few weeks and the area was also classified as Class B at the same time next year. The family finds it strange, because bacteria from the beach should have been heavily diluted before they reached the farm. Also, the British results don't match the Dutch tests that are more frequent. John stated that they have been unable since Brexit to raise new capital due to the threat of export bans. Food Standards Agency in Britain, which is responsible for classifying areas where shellfish are harvested, has said that it tried to be flexible but had to protect the public's health. It also added that classifications will only improve as water quality improves. Sarah and George explained that an annual survey had shown the farm to have spawned a variety of species such as lobster and crab. In Europe, their blue mussels are a premium product, renowned for their sweet, rich flavour. Despite the bans, Holmyards exports about 95% their mussels into the EU. The rest is sold in Britain. The tourism bosses believe that this type of locally produced, high-quality food is what they should be promoting to potential holidaymakers. Alistair Handyside is the chairman of South West Tourism Alliance. He said that while weather and costs were the main factors affecting tourism, the talk about sewage has damaged the appeal of some locations. He said, "It makes you despair." TOXIC EXPOUT The sight of litter and sewage on beaches and rivers has also prompted thousands to protest. Sally Burtt Jones was one of SOS Whitstable's founders. She is part of a group that organizes protests, tests the local water, and campaigns for legislation change. She expressed her pride in her work as a campaigner. She said, "We care for the community and sea." "When we come together, we can bring about change." John Reeve is a representative of Surfers Against Sewage in Saltburn, a seaside town located on the coast of the Northeast. He has studied geology and worked with local officials to determine how to manage rainwater when storms are becoming more intense due to climate changes. He said, "We're making a change over time." Water industry claims it has made significant investments in infrastructure since privatisation of 1989. However, population growth and climate changes have created new pressures during a period when successive governments and regulator Ofwat were focused on keeping bills low for customers. Ofwat reported that water companies in England & Wales have paid out 53 billion pounds ($66billion) in dividends since privatisation, and collective net debt of 69.5billion in 2024. The government has also gained the power to tie dividends to performance. It has proposed that customer bills increase by 36% on average before inflation in the next five year to fund upgrades to infrastructure. The government is reviewing the sector. Ofwat's spokesperson stated that customers want change: "We must see a transformation of the culture and performance of companies." We will monitor companies and hold them accountable." The Environment Agency has also been a hindrance to construction due to the failures of sewage systems. Most objections to housing, retail, office, school, science business park, and leisure centres are overcome by finding ways to reduce the impact. The objections can add to the time, costs and complexity of building projects. This is a major challenge for the government, which wants to stimulate a boom in infrastructure and housing construction. The biodiversity of the world has been affected by water pollution. The stocks of Atlantic Salmon, which spawn in the freshwater breeding grounds of Britain, have reached new lows. The rod catch for 2023, as declared in the provisional declarations, is the lowest since 1988. Environment Agency blamed the Holmyards for the pollution and sedimentation. Sarah stated that the potential of the business being duplicated elsewhere is huge. But if the same problems of not being allowed to export due to the water quality are present, it will not work. ($1 = 0.8046 pound) (Reporting and editing by David Clarke; Kate Holton, Dylan Martinez)
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REFILE - Stocks fall with S&P500 in correction; bonds are in demand amid tariff anxiety (March 13).
Investors fled to safer assets on Thursday, as global trade tensions were feared to increase inflation and slow the growth of the economy after U.S. president Donald Trump's recent tariff threats. The benchmark S&P 500 closed Thursday for the first time more than 10% lower than its previous record close, which was achieved on February 19, Trump has threatened to impose a 200% tariff on European beverages if the EU doesn't remove the whiskey surcharges from the United States. Trump's increased tariffs on U.S. imports of steel and aluminum took effect Wednesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the Labor Department, released data on Thursday that showed U.S. Producer prices (PPI), which were expected to rise faster than consumer prices (CPI), actually remained unchanged in February. Last month's trends were not enough to reassure investors, who had been preparing for the potential impact of trade conflicts on future inflation and economic growth. Tim Ghriskey is a senior portfolio strategist with Ingalls & Snyder, New York. He said that if it weren't for the ongoing trade war, the market would have been up strongly on the inflation data. "Traders have their attention on the trade conflict." Ghriskey said, "It appears that the administration (in the U.S.) is very aggressive. They seem to be committed to the long-term and personalities are unlikely to change their minds in the near future." Wall Street saw the S&P500 fall 77.78 or 1.39% to 5,521.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also appeared to be approaching a confirmation of a correction, as it ended Thursday at 40,813.57, down 537.36, or 1.30%. This was roughly 9.4% lower than its latest record-breaking closing high. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 345.44, or 1.96% to 17,303.01. After confirming the correction on March 6, the tech-heavy index fell more than 14% compared to its recent record. According to Yardeni Research, stock market corrections have been fairly common. The S&P 500 has experienced a correction at least 56 times since 1929. Data showed that only 22 of these corrections morphed to bear markets. A bear market is defined as a decline of at least 20% from the most recent highs. MSCI's index of global stocks fell 9.33 points or 1.12% to 821.52 in Thursday. This is more than 7% lower than its latest record high, after hitting his lowest point since September. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index closed earlier down 0.15%, after gaining 0.81% the previous session. The U.S. S&P 500 is down over 6% year to date, but European stocks are doing better thanks to government plans for defense spending and a possible Ukraine peace agreement. The STOXX Index is up 6.5% for the year-to-date despite recent drops. U.S. Treasury Yields fell on Friday as the equity selloff increased demand for U.S. Government debt. The escalating Trade Wars between the United States, and its trading partners threatens to deter growth and increase inflation. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 4.6 basis point to 4.27% from 4.316% at late Wednesday, while the 30-year bond rate fell 4.1 basis to 4.59%. The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve fell by 4 basis points, to 3.955% from 3.995% at late Wednesday. The U.S. Dollar was mixed in terms of currencies. It weakened against the safe-haven Japanese yen, but gained on the Euro and Canadian dollar. The dollar fell 0.38% against the Japanese yen to 147.68. The euro fell 0.33% to $1.085, while the Canadian dollar declined 0.45% against the greenback. Against the Swiss Franc the dollar gained 0.14%. Oil prices fell after a rally on Wednesday, when traders took into account macroeconomic concerns as well as demand and supply expectations. U.S. crude oil settled at $66.55 per barrel down $1.13 or 1.67% and Brent settled at $69,88 per barrel down 1.51% or $0.07 for the day. Gold prices soared to record levels on Thursday and were just a few cents away from the $3,000 mark per ounce. The momentum was driven by increased tariff uncertainty as well as bets placed on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy being eased. Spot gold increased by 1.73%, to $2982.84 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased by 1.51% to $2.983.50 per ounce.
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Asia Gold Discounts in India Hit 8-Month High as Record Prices Weigh on Demand
The gold discounts in India reached their highest level in almost eight months this week, due to the record-high prices and customers staying away from other major hubs. Jewelers are reporting fewer sales. The rising price of bullion has caused a significant drop in demand. On Thursday, the domestic gold price reached a new record of 87.886 rupees for 10 grams. This week, Indian dealers offered a discount Up to $39 per ounce, including import duties of 6% and sales taxes of 3%, compared to a discount from $10 to $21 the previous week. A Mumbai-based dealer from a bullion import bank said, "Jewelers don't want to build high-cost inventories at the end the financial year as they are busy with closing accounts." India's fiscal year runs from April to March 31. India's gold exports will drop by 85% from the previous year in February, and reach their lowest level in 20 years. The demand has been dampened due to record high bullion prices. China, which is the largest gold consumer in the world, traded gold at a discount ranging from $1 to $18 over spot prices. Hong Kong dealers charged premiums from $1 to $2 per ounce. . Standard Chartered analyst Suki cooper said in a report that "China's Market is alternating between a discount or a premium." The physical market has given gold a weaker foundation... China's stock markets have slowed down amid high prices highlighting the macro-drivers." Bullion was traded in Japan A trader stated that a discount of 3 dollars and a premium $0.5 is the difference between these two prices. A Japanese trader said, "The market is choppy and volatile because of Trump's policies. It seems investors are waiting for the trend to be clear." A trader in Singapore said that gold was traded at a discount of $0.50 to a premium of $3.
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BMW's profits slump as China sales and brake problems plague earnings
BMW's 2024 net profit fell by more than a third to 7,68 billion euros, in line with the market expectation, due to weak sales in China, Germany, and delivery delays caused by brake problems. It said that the premium carmaker expected its profit margins for cars to reach 5-7% by 2025. This is at best a small increase over last year's 6,3%. The company was anticipating intensifying wars in trade and continued tough competition in China. The carmaker's forecast includes all tariffs that were imposed on March 12th, including increased tariffs for U.S. Steel and Aluminium imports, and a 25% duty placed on certain vehicles imported from Mexico, such as BMWs. The group has proposed a payout ratio of 36.7% - one of the highest ever in its history - consisting of a 4.32 euro dividend per preferred share by 2024. This is still lower than the 6.02 euro dividend paid for the previous fiscal year. Cut its 2024 Outlook The drop in China sales, and the problems with Continental brakes that affect 1.5 million vehicles has caused the rate to fall from 8-10%. The carmaker's warnings were confirmed by the drop in net profit of 41% for the fourth quarter. In January, Earnings would be affected by inflation and higher fixed costs due to unwinding of inventory in the last three months.
Gold reaches record heights, aiming for $3,000 peak
Gold prices reached a record-high on Friday as fears over trade tensions and uncertainty about U.S. tariffs pushed up the price, while increased expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy eased boosted gold's value.
Gold spot fell 0.1% at $2,983.78 per ounce by 0132 GMT after reaching a session high of $2.990.09, just a few centimeters away from the $3,000 mark.
Bullion has also logged a second consecutive weekly gain, with a 2,5% increase so far.
U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.2% to $2.996.70.
The risk-off market stance reflects the expectation of investors that trade tensions will likely get worse before they cool down, and they are once again turning to gold as a safe-haven to hedge portfolio volatility," said IG Market Strategist Yeap JunRong.
The latest in U.S. president Donald Trump's multifaceted trade war is the European Union's response to U.S. tariffs blanketed on steel and aluminum by imposing an additional 50% tax on American whisky exports. This prompted the president to make a threat on Truth Social that he would impose a tariff of 200% on the imports of European wine and spirits.
Gold prices are now approaching the psychological $3,000 mark. As we move into the second quarter where reciprocal tariffs may cause another round of market turmoil, gold is a safe-haven investment in an environment with few alternatives.
Trump's tariffs have been widely predicted to cause inflation and economic instability, and gold has reached multiple record highs by 2025.
Gold is seen by many as a way to protect against inflation and political risk.
The markets are now awaiting the Fed's meeting on monetary policy next Wednesday. The Fed is expected to maintain its overnight benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50%.
In an environment of low interest rates, non-yielding gold bullion thrives.
The Russian president Vladimir Putin stated on Thursday that Russia supports a U.S. ceasefire proposal in Ukraine, but has asked for clarifications and conditions which appear to prevent a rapid end to the fighting.
(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich) Spot silver fell 0.2% to $33.72 per ounce. Platinum rose 0.1% to $995.00, while palladium rose 0.7% to $964.32. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)
(source: Reuters)