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Stocks of arms companies soar after the German parties' defense sea change

After reports that the next likely government in Germany was considering a major fiscal overhaul for Europe's largest economy, Europe's defense stocks surged on Monday.

Shares of defence contractors such as Thyssenkrupp Hensoldt Renk Rheinmetall BAE Systems, Leonardo, and Hensoldt rose by double-digits percentages after news broke that the conservatives, who won the elections, and the Social Democrats, centre-left, were considering debt-financed infrastructure and defence funds worth under one trillion euros.

No party has confirmed officially that a special defence fund worth 400 billion euro ($417 billion), and infrastructure funds worth up to 500 billion euro, which would total 20% of German GDP were being discussed.

In a note, Deutsche Bank stated that even if the money was spent over ten years, it would still be as much as East Germany has invested since reunification. It would be a fiscal system shift of historical proportions.

The talks are the latest result of the United States' changing attitude toward Europe's defense since President Donald Trump's return to the White House. Friday's confrontation between Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy provided the most dramatic example.

The funds could be approved in the current parliament if the Greens are able to secure the two-thirds needed. The consent of the Left, a defence-skeptic party that will sit in the new parliament later this month is also required.

Germany has lagged behind in defence for decades. It will spend less than NATO's 2% target on defence until 2023, despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s "Zeitenwende", or sea change, only yielding modest results.

The use of the special fund, which is akin to a credit card, reflects the difficulty in avoiding a constitutional cap on spending that limits how much new debt the German government can incur each year.

The stock price explosion reflects investor confidence in the fact that manufacturers of military vehicles, ammunition, and other battlefield equipment will reap the benefits.

Scholz's earlier attempts to boost Germany's military spending relied also on a separate fund that was formally separated from the 2 trillion euro in public expenditure.

Legally, they are tricky: A court ruling against the use of a different fund led to the collapse of the government and the loss of the elections last month.

Deutsche Bank stated that the economic impact of the Defence Fund would be minimal in the short-term, as much of the money would be spent on imported goods.

The infrastructure fund would have a more significant economic impact. Years of frugal spending have left Germany's public sphere in a poor state.

The fiscal stimulus could be worth up 2% of the GDP if they were spent over 10 years and smoothed out.

The conservatives and SPD are both open to reforming the debt-brake, which is increasingly seen as a growth-stifling factor. However, any reform will require a two-thirds majority in parliament and the approval of the Greens, as well as the Left, who would want to extract a quid pro-quo. ($1 = 0.9602 euro) (Reporting and Editing by FriederikeHeine and Angus MacSwan).

(source: Reuters)