Andy Home: Critical minerals are at the forefront of world politics

The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy will meet today with the U.S. president Donald Trump to sign an important minerals deal to ensure continued U.S. support in the war against Russia.

It started out as a rare-earths deal, but someone soon realized that Ukraine actually doesn't have much of these 17 esoteric elements.

The draft text of the proposed Reconstruction Investment Fund simply refers to "deposits" of hydrocarbons, minerals, oil, and gas.

Mortgages of Ukrainian security for its mineral wealth come with a long overdue payback.

The clue lies in the word "deposits". Finding deposits of minerals is easy. Mining them is more challenging. Even more difficult is the processing of them.

The deal shows that we are now in a new era of metal politics after a century-long era of oil politics.

What lies beneath the surface?

The U.S. Geological Survey is unaware that Ukraine is a major producer of rare earths. It also does not include it in its top 10 list or the largest reserve.

Since the Soviet era, Ukraine's rare earth deposits have not been surveyed.

We don't know even the size of the reserve or its composition, let alone if it is economically viable to extract.

Ukraine has confirmed reserves of critical metals like titanium and lithium, but removing them from the ground will be a much bigger challenge.

After three years of conflict, Ukraine has a shortage of both infrastructure and power.

The question is not how to turn raw materials into metal.

China is the dominant player in many mineral supply chains, not because of its large ore reserves, but because it has mastered a key part of the production process.

The West is also struggling to catch up with China's technological know-how, as it restricts the export of crucial metal processing technologies.

It will be some time before Ukraine is able to deliver on its end of the deal and monetise what's still underground.

Metals Revolution

The United States and Europe are desperate to secure their critical mineral supply chain because of China's dominance.

It's the metallic revolution driving this hunger.

In the 20th century, a landline phone only required a copper wire. Apple iPhones still contain copper, but they also need aluminium, cobalt and gold. They also require lithium, tin, titanium, tungsten, tin oxide, tungsten oxide, and a few rare earths.

Consider what goes into an advanced piece of technology, such as a stealth fighter plane like the F-35.

Metals are not just hard bits to shape, but they are being used in more complex combinations that are closer to inorganic chemical synthesis than traditional metalworking.

The lithium-ion batteries are the poster child for modern metallurgy. They come in different chemistries, each using a slightly varying combination of metal inputs.

The first commercial batteries appeared in 1991, but technology has evolved rapidly to become a key driver for the transition to electric cars. This is why the West races to develop its own supply chain of battery metals.

While Trump may not be a fan of electric cars, he understands how vital metals are for the U.S. Military. In fact, Trump declared a national crisis in his first term for critical minerals.

METALLIC POKER

The geopolitical game table has adopted critical metals as a new bargaining chip.

Trump is also targeting Greenland. Although it has reserves of rare earths and other minerals, the country lacks the infrastructure needed to extract them from the ground.

Vladimir Putin is quick to jump into the metal poker game and points out that Russia has more rare earths in its reserves than Ukraine, should the United States be interested.

He will even add two million tonnes of aluminum primary per year, as he has heard that the United States may be short if they impose tariffs on Canada's largest supplier.

This raises the question as to whether Trump would be better off looking at his own country if he is really so keen to get rare earths and critical metals.

Canada is home to many of these, has a mining-friendly jurisdiction and possesses extensive metals processing capability.

Trump has thrown out "friend-shoring", a concept that was popularized by the previous administration. Maybe the list of people who are friends has changed.

The deal to sell minerals with Ukraine will not be the last.

Ukraine isn't the only country that wants to use metals as a currency.

The Democratic Republic of Congo has tried and failed to defeat the M23 rebels, who have seized two of the largest cities in eastern Congo.

In an interview with The New York Times Felix Tshisekedi, the president of the country, praised a deal similar to that struck in Ukraine, whereby the country would provide future supplies, notably cobalt, as a reward for Western aid.

This is the age of metal diplomacy.

There are a number of elements on the periodic table you may not have heard about, even though they're used every day.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)