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The tsunami warning in Japan brings back memories of the Fukushima catastrophe
Residents along the Pacific coast of Japan rushed for higher ground as tsunami warnings were issued following a massive quake off Russia's Far East. The earthquake brought back painful memories from the 2011 nuclear disaster and earthquake. The television banners read "TSUNAMI!" EVACUATE!" As tsunami waves approached Japan, broadcasters issued similar warnings. They cut their regular programming and focused on evacuation orders. "Do not stare at the screen." Evacuate now!" A news presenter from the public broadcaster NHK yelled. The warnings brought back memories of the March 11th, 2011 earthquake. More than 15,000 died when a 9.0-magnitude earthquake triggered a tsunami that ravaged the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant and caused a radiation disaster. Residents were unable reach higher ground as waves dozens of meters high surged along the northeastern coast of the country. Residents recalled these events on Wednesday as evacuation warnings are issued. A woman from Fukushima said to NHK: "Everyone evacuated higher ground when the earthquake struck previously, so I considered doing the same." After the evacuation warning, workers in low-lying parts of Tokyo Electric Power’s Fukushima Nuclear Facility suspended decommissioning and fled higher ground. The spokesperson stated that the evacuation was not a safety issue. Over 2 million people were told to move to safer areas along the Pacific Coast. Locals called the 2011 disaster "3.11", and many recalled the lessons learned. They braved the heatstroke risk in the intense summer months to reach higher grounds. TV Asahi reports that a woman aged 58 died in Japan's Mie Prefecture when her car fell from a cliff as she evacuated. A representative of the Japan Meteorological Agency has warned that tsunami waves may continue to strike for up to a week. NHK reported that a male postal worker from Iwate Prefecture said, "I worked at the same office 14 years ago." This time, we all said "let's evacuate immediately." (Reporting and editing by Saad Saeed; Satoshi Sugiyama)
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Iron ore prices fall as China's stimulus fades
Iron ore futures prices fell on Wednesday, as expectations of further stimulus from China's top consumer faded. This erased gains made earlier in the week that were based on the prospect of an extension of the tariff truce between America and Asia. The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the day 0.44% lower, at 789 Yuan ($109.95) per metric ton. As of 0700 GMT, the benchmark September iron ore price on Singapore Exchange dropped by 0.91% to $100.80 per ton. The readout by Xinhua, the state media for the July Politburo that sets the course of economics for the remainder of the year, said China will keep its policy stable without specifying any concrete measures. This disappointed those who expected Beijing to take some steps to support the property market that is still struggling, and has been dragging down economic growth as well as consumption of industrial materials such steel. After two days of constructive talks, both sides in Stockholm described as productive, U.S. officials and Chinese officials decided to extend their 90-day trade truce. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has quashed any expectations that Donald Trump would reject the extension. The International Monetary Fund also raised its forecast of China's growth to 4.8% this year from 4.0%. This boosted sentiment and contributed to price increases. After a jump of over 6% in the morning, gains in coking coal, a steelmaking ingredient, and coke, slowed in the afternoon. They were up by 2.71% and 4.4% respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have gained some ground. Rebar rose by 0.42%. Hot-rolled coils climbed by 0.81%. Wire rod gained 0.2%. Stainless steel gained 0.31%. ($1 = 7.1762 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Janane Vekatraman).
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Chinese refiner Yulong buys first Canadian TMX crude oil cargoes
Trade sources report that China's Shandong Yulong Petrochemical purchased its first Canadian crude oil cargoes via the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) to be delivered in September and October, diversifying its supply. Two sources confirmed that Yulong purchased an Access Western Blend cargo from Macquarie for September delivery, at a discounted price of $1.50 per barrel compared to the November ICE Brent. It also bought a cargo from Totsa for October delivery, at a comparable discount to the December ICE Brent. Each cargo contains approximately 550,000 barrels. Yulong didn't immediately reply to an email asking for comment. Macquarie and TotalEnergies don't comment on commercial issues. Yulong made its first purchase of Canadian crude oil in September, when the refinery began processing 200,000 barrels per day. The AWB bitumen is a heavy, highly acidic diluted version of bitumen that's produced by Canadian Natural Resources (CNR) and MEG Energy. Trade sources reported that Yulong also made a recent purchase of Urals crude oil from Russia. They said that the refiner usually buys West African crude and Russian Far East ESPO-grade crude. (Reporting and editing by Florence Tan in Singapore, Siyi Liu in Singapore)
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Rio Tinto reports smallest first-half profits in five years
Rio Tinto announced its lowest first-half profit in five years Wednesday as iron ore price remained low due to concerns about oversupply and weak China demand. This was offset by higher earnings from the copper business. The price of iron ore fell in the first half as the top steel consumer, China, decreased its steel production and increased supply from Australia and Brazil. This reduced Rio Tinto's earnings. Morgan Stanley notes that the expectation of China reducing overcapacity and restocking the steel industry before the end of 2025 could lead to an increase in price to $100 per ton by the end the year. Rio Tinto, world's biggest iron ore producer reported earnings of $4.81billion for the six-month period ended June 30. This was below the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of $5.05billion. This was the lowest first-half performance for the company since 2020. It reported earnings of $5.75 Billion. Rio Tinto has declared a lower interim dividend for the first half year of $1.48 compared to the $1.77 per share it paid out last year. (Reporting from Sameer Manekar in Bengaluru and Rishav Chaterjee in Melbourne, Melanie Burton in Sydney; editing by Subhranshu SAHU)
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Asian stocks mix as investors prepare for tariff deadline
Investors were cautious on Wednesday after the U.S.-China trade talks ended without a substantive agreement, and before the Federal Reserve policy announcement. The gains made by MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan in the morning have waned, and the index is now trading flat as traders digest corporate earnings reports. Early European trading saw pan-regional futures up 0.15%. German DAX Futures rose 0.31%. FTSE Futures were flat. Australian shares ended up 0.7%. Japan's Nikkei index fell 0.1%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 1.3%. The euro rose from its one-month low to $1.1555 as the markets assessed the EU's deal with Trump. The next few days will be filled with several key central bank decisions and economic reports, as well as corporate earnings. This culminates in the August 1 deadline for tariffs set by U.S. president Donald Trump. Federal Reserve officials are expected to keep interest rates the same at their policy meeting on Wednesday. However, there could be some dissent from central bankers in favor of lower borrowing costs. Tom Kenny is a senior international economist with ANZ, Sydney. He said in a podcast that some officials were concerned about tariffs leading to higher inflation expectations and more persistent pressures on prices, rather than just a one-off shock. "Our expectation is the Fed will be able to reduce rates at its September meeting." Treasury bonds in the United States advanced ahead of a Fed meeting. The yields fell to their lowest level in nearly four weeks after a successful auction of notes with ten-year maturities that allayed concerns over dwindling demand for government debt. Last week, the yield on 10-year Treasury Notes was 4.328%. This is the lowest since July 3. The yield on two-year Treasury notes, which increases with traders' expectation of higher Fed Fund rates, was unchanged at 3.873%. Tariffs, corporate earnings Bank of Japan will likely keep its policy unchanged Thursday. The focus will be on the comments it makes to determine when the next rate rise will occur after a recent trade agreement between Japan and the U.S. opened the door for the bank's rate increases to resume. Some countries were preparing to negotiate with the U.S. until the last minute before Trump's deadline for a deal that would avoid "Liberation Day tariffs". On Tuesday, U.S. officials and Chinese officials agreed that they would seek to extend their 90-day truce in tariffs. However, no major breakthroughs had been announced. Officials in the United States said that it was up Trump to decide if he would extend the trade truce, which expires August 12, or if he wanted to see tariffs rise to triple digits. Two Indian government sources say that India will also face higher U.S. duties -- between 20 and 25 percent -- on certain exports, as it delays new trade concessions before the deadline of August 1. Three South Korean Cabinet-level Officials met with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick to try and finalize a deal. Prices of oil rose after Trump set a short deadline for Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures increased 14 cents or 0.2% to $72.40 per barrel. The earnings were mixed on Wednesday. UBS Group's profits exceeded analyst expectations. HSBC, however, missed estimates due to the mounting losses in China. German sportswear manufacturer Adidas also warned about the impact of U.S. Tariffs on its earnings. Microsoft and Meta, two of the biggest U.S. technology companies, are expected to release their earnings on Wednesday. This will set the tone and pace for the rest the week and earnings season. Chris Weston is the head of research for Pepperstone. He said, "It has been a good reporting season in the U.S., but now that the bar has been raised, these megacaps need to go all out and make a splash."
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Andy Home: Aluminium flow shifts after Trump doubles tariffs
Canadian aluminum smelters began diverting primary aluminium away from the United States as a result of the increasing import tariffs. These increased to 25% in march and to 50% in the month of June. Alcoa Corp., which has smelters in both the U.S. and Canada, told analysts during its quarterly earnings call that it had sold more than 100,000 tons of Canadian aluminum to customers outside the U.S. since March. U.S. primary aluminum imports dropped dramatically in April and in May, even before U.S. president Donald Trump surprised the world with his second surprise tariff in June. The import gap has been partially filled by the surge in shipments of recycled aluminium. This raw material, as a raw materials is only subject to Trump's lower tariffs. The physical market dynamics will likely remain fluid, depending on both the U.S. premium as well as Trump's willingness and ability to grant exemptions. PRIMARY INCOMES DOWN, SCRAP UPS Imports of primary aluminum in the United States reached a two-year record of 442,000 tonnes in March, as suppliers raced to meet the first deadline for tariffs. No one saw the second increase coming, and it was implemented almost immediately, so there was no time to get ahead of the new 50% tariff. In fact, the 268,000 tons of imports in May were the lowest monthly total since December 2022. The majority of the volume drop can be attributed to lower shipments from Canada. The biggest supplier of metal to the U.S. is redirecting the metal that has not been committed under annual contracts. In the case of Alcoa, this is about 30% of their Canadian production. Aluminum is being rerouted towards Europe. WBMS trade statistics show that Canada exported 11,800 tonnes to the Netherlands in March and 25,500 to Italy in April. The imports of scrap aluminium are increasing, meanwhile, due to the difference between the reciprocal tariffs and the aluminium ones. Arrivals in March-May totaled 227,000 tons, an increase of 40% over the same period in 2024. The European Commission activated its trade surveillance system before possible export restrictions. The European Commission has promised to make a decision before the end of September. MARKET WATCH In response to the double tariff increase, the U.S. Midwest Premium has risen from 24 cents ($520 per tonne) in January to an astounding 68 cents. William Oplinger is the CEO and president of Alcoa. He says that this amount does not cover the costs associated with tariffs on Canadian metal. He said that the Midwest premium should be between 70-75 cents per lb when you take into account both the tariff and base costs of transportation to U.S. customers. As buyers wait to find out if there will be any exemptions from the current blanket tariffs, they are reducing their inventory instead of making new purchases. Watch Politics Online It is their right. The Trump administration is reportedly considering lowering or eliminating aluminium tariffs on countries that sign up for broader trade agreements. This deal with the United Kingdom included a 25% reduction in import tariffs for both steel and aluminium products. According to European Trade Commission Maros SEFCIC, the newly-minted agreement with the European Union includes a potential carving-out for copper, steel, and aluminium. He said that European and U.S. negotiators found a common cause with China's overcapacity. For now, the higher tariff rate is still in place. However, both sides are working to create a "metals partnership" where tariffs would be replaced by a quota-based system. Canada's importance in the U.S. aluminum supply makes it strange that Canada is not included in this alliance. High SMELTER Restain Costs One thing is certain, even though the tariff landscape is constantly changing. It will be a while before the U.S. can reduce its dependence on imports. Two new smelter project are in competition with Big Tech to provide low-cost electricity. Even if the smelters can lock in their energy supply, it would take years to build. According to the United States Geological Survey, there are also around 670,000 tonnes of unused smelting capacities in the U.S. Many of the old machines need significant investment. Alcoa's Warrick smelter, in Indiana has a 50,000-ton per year line that is idle. It would cost around $100 million for refurbishment and another year to ramp up production. Alcoa's Oplinger said that a decision to restart production would require "that the tariffs remain in place for a long time" before it could be justified. Tariffs are likely to remain in some form, but the question of how many trading partners will be able to avoid paying a full 50% tariff is becoming more and more open. There won't be many U.S. Smelters restarted until the situation is clarified. There will be more volatility in the supply chain. These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.
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Oil prices pause as markets consider Trump's ultimatum against Russia
After a spike in the previous session of over 3%, oil prices were down in Asian trade Wednesday as investors waited for developments regarding President Donald Trump's new deadline to Russia to end its war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures were up 8 cents or 0.12% to $71.81 a barge by 0419 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was also up 8 cents or 0.12% to $69.29 a barge. Brent crude, the September contract that expires on Wednesday, was up 18 cents to $72.69 per barrel. The settlements of both contracts on Tuesday were the highest since June 20, 2006. Trump announced on Tuesday that if Russia did not end the war in 10-12 days, he would begin imposing secondary tariffs on its trading partners of 100%. This is a move from a previous 50-day deadline. Vandana Insights, the oil market analyst, said that the $4-$5 per barrel premium for supply risk, which was introduced in recent days, can be expected to continue, unless Putin takes a conciliatory step. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at a Stockholm news conference where the U.S. and EU were holding trade negotiations, that the United States warned China, which is the biggest buyer of Russian oil to stop buying it or face large tariffs. Analysts at JP Morgan said that India had signaled it would comply with U.S. Sanctions, which could put 2.3 million barrels of Russian oil per day in danger. The United States, the European Union and other countries have avoided a trade conflict with an agreement for 15% U.S. Tariffs on European Imports. This deal eases concerns over the impact of trade tensions on the economic growth as well as providing support for oil prices. After talks last week, foreign partners of Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA still await U.S. authorization to operate in the country sanctioned. This could bring some supply back to the market and ease the pressure on prices. Hari said that the oil market pays attention to the U.S. Trade Deals and Talks and the Fed but these are only marginal influences on sentiment. The U.S. Federal Reserve, despite President Donald Trump’s objections at the policy meeting on Wednesday evening, is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global growth predictions slightly for 2025-2026 on Tuesday. However, it warned that the world economy was facing major risks such as geopolitical tension, a rise in tariffs, and a larger fiscal deficit. Reporting by Mohi Nairayan in New Delhi; Additional reporting by Colleen Hough in Beijing. Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Clarence Fernandez.
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Australia's IGO warns of more problems at Kwinana as revenue drops
IGO, an Australian lithium producer, reported a decline in its annual revenue on Wednesday. It also announced a charge for impairment relating to the troubled Kwinana Lithium Refinery in Western Australia. The Perth-based firm reported sales revenues of A$512.5m for the year ending June 30. This is lower than A$822.6m reported by the company a year earlier. IGO reported that the impairment charge, which is a cost a company incurs when an asset it owns loses value, could range between A$70 and A$90 (between $45.6 million to $58,7 million) for fiscal year 2025. The shares of the Australian producer of battery metals fell as much as 12 percent to A$4.40. This is on course for its worst day in 2022. The Kwinana plant is part of a joint venture called Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia, a partnership between IGO Australia and China's Tianqi Lithium. IGO Australia holds a 49 percent stake in the TLEA and Tianqi Lithium the remainder. The first lithium hydroxide facility to be built in Australia has struggled with production delays and operational problems amid a slump in the lithium price. IGO is not confident that this asset can achieve meaningful and sustained improvements. IGO said that it continues to work with its JV partner in order to determine the best future path for the plant. After a 90 percent drop in lithium prices in the past two years, some mines producing lithium for electric vehicle batteries have curtailed their operations or delayed expansion. The refinery that produces lithium hydroxide - a key component in batteries - posted a loss of A$28.7million despite the support provided by the Western Australian Government to boost the lithium sector. The company also said that Kwinana’s production for the full year was below the forecast due to operational issues which continued to affect the refinery’s output.
Trump prepares reciprocal tariffs amid trade war fears
Donald Trump's advisers on trade were finalising plans for the reciprocal duties that the U.S. President has promised to impose against every country which charges duties on U.S. imported goods, raising fears of an expanding global trade war.
Separately the trade ministers from the 27 countries of the European Union are due to meet by video conference to decide their response to the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's statement that tariffs against the EU "will not be ignored".
Trump shocked the markets on Monday with his decision to impose tariffs starting March 12 on all imports of steel and aluminum. Mexico, Canada, and the European Union condemned the plans, while Japan, Australia, and other countries said they wanted exemptions.
Industries that depend on imports of steel and aluminum scrambled to reduce the expected cost increase.
Trump announced last week that he would impose an additional 10% tariff for Chinese goods starting February 4. Chinese countermeasures will be implemented this week.
He delayed the 25% tariff on goods coming from Mexico and Canada by a month, until March 4, to allow for negotiations about steps to secure U.S. border security and stop the flow of fentanyl.
Many U.S. workers have welcomed the metal tariffs imposed on Monday, but manufacturing-heavy companies are deeply concerned about the next steps. They warn that the tariff increase will reverberate throughout supply chains and affect all businesses who rely upon the materials.
Ahold Delhaize, a supermarket chain, and Siemens Energy have warned that tariffs will lead to higher prices because they want to pass on additional costs from imports.
Steelmakers in Europe are also concerned that U.S. Tariffs could lead to an influx of cheap steel into Europe. French steelmaker Aperam
If that happens, Brussels will intervene and curb imports. Austria's specialty steelmaker voestalpine
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On the EU to immediately take countermeasures
Australia's Industry Minister meanwhile stated that the U.S. Tariffs will not derail Australia's plan to increase "green" aluminum exports.
Ed Husic: "The world is in high demand for aluminium. We need it to transition to net zero."
Reporters at the National Press Club, Canberra. "Our American friends, do you want to pay more money for this product you have a high demand for?"
MONUMENTAL UNDERTAKING
White House officials are being tight-lipped regarding the timing or structure of the next tariffs. One source has said that the announcement could come later this week.
Trump announced on Monday that he will announce reciprocal tariffs within the next two business days for all countries who impose duties on U.S. products. He also said he is looking into separate tariffs for cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.
Experts in trade say that structuring the reciprocal duties Trump wants presents big challenges to his team. This may explain why the latest tariffs were not announced Tuesday.
William Reinsch said Trump officials can choose between a simple 10% or 20% flat tariff rate or a messier option that requires separate tariff schedules that match U.S. rates to those of other countries.
A source who tracks the work on tariffs reported that details are still being worked out as late as Tuesday.
Damon Pike is a principal and trade specialist with BDO International's U.S. division. He said that the reciprocal tariffs Trump envisaged would be a massive undertaking given that the 186 member countries of the World Customs Organization have different duty rates.
"At an international level, you'll find 5,000 different product subheadings at the 6-digit level. That's 5,000 times 186 countries. "It's like an artificial intelligence project," said he.
Trump could also use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to justify tariffs on China, and those pending against Canada and Mexico.
Pike added that, without IEEPA's help, it would take some sort of agency action before trade remedies could be imposed. "But everything seems to move quickly," he said.
Reinsch stated that imposing reciprocal tariffs also ceded the control of U.S. tariff rates to other countries.
"For instance, if Colombia had a high coffee tariff to protect their industry, we'd put a similar high tariff on Colombian Coffee, even though we do not grow coffee. "The only ones who would suffer are the U.S. consumer," he said.
(source: Reuters)