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China data weakens as oil prices slip on Russia-Ukraine talks
The oil prices dropped on Tuesday as the prospects of a Russia-Ukraine deal seemed to be improving, raising expectations of an easing of sanctions. Brent crude futures slid?35 cents or 0.6% to $60.21 a barge by 0350 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude traded at $56.52 a barge, down 30 cents or 0.5%. "Crude Oil fell as the market weighed signs of optimism about a peace agreement being reached between 'Russia and Ukraine,'" ANZ analysts stated in a recent note. This raised fears that the recent U.S. sanction?on Russian Oil Companies would eventually be lifted, adding more to an already well-supplied market. On Monday, European negotiators and the U.S. announced progress in their talks to end Russia's conflict?in Ukraine. This unprecedented move sparked hope that negotiations were moving?closer? to an end? to the conflict. A deal on territorial concessions remains elusive. In a note, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said that the soft Chinese data released on Monday exacerbated concerns about global demand not being strong enough to absorb current supply growth. Official data revealed that China's factory production growth has slowed to a 15-month minimum. Retail sales grew at the slowest rate since December 2022 during the COVID-19 Pandemic. These data have prompted concerns that China may be losing its strategy to rely on exports in order to counteract weak domestic demand. A cooling economy will further increase demand in the largest oil-consuming country, where the soaring use of electric cars is already impacting petroleum consumption. These?factors have offset any concerns over supply following the seizure of an oil tanker by the U.S. off the coast Venezuela last week. Analysts and traders said that a glut in floating storage, and an increase in Chinese purchases from Venezuela to prepare for sanctions also limit the impact on the market. Reporting by Colleen Chow and Emily Chow, both in Beijing; editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman and Jacqeline Woong.
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Gold gains as dollar falls ahead of US jobs data
Gold prices rose on Tuesday as a result of a weaker dollar. Investors awaited the release of important U.S. employment data, which could influence expectations about the Federal Reserve’s policy direction in the coming year. As of 0230 GMT spot gold was up by 0.1%, at $4,311,64 per ounce. This extends a rally that has seen the bullion break multiple records. U.S. gold futures are little changed at $4.333.20. Early Asian trade saw the U.S. Dollar hovering near a 2-month low, supporting greenback-priced gold. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst, said that "the dollar's performance is subdued and this helps to keep gold prices on the front foot. Markets think the Fed may be underestimating how many rate cuts it will make next year." According to CME's FedWatch, traders are pricing in 76% of the?probability? of a rate cut by 25 basis points in January. Some even expect two cuts. The data docket for this week is expected to provide new clues as to how quickly the Fed will ease policy in 2026. Waterer says that if the labour market data confirms the idea that the employment situation is still weak, then gold will benefit, as it could strengthen the case for earlier rate reductions. Fed Governor Stephen Miran stated that current inflation above target does not reflect the underlying dynamics of supply and demand which are generating price increases closer to the central banks 2% goal. A government shutdown has curtailed the collection of data, which includes October's unemployment rates. Bullion that does not yield a return is usually found in environments with lower rates. Analysts at ANZ warned of upside risks by saying that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce in the next year. Spot silver dropped 1.2% to $63.11 per ounce, hovering around Friday's record high of $64.65. Waterer, of KCM, said that the metal still has a bullish tone as industrial demand is not showing signs of abating. This comes after a 121% rise in this year due to a strong industrial and investment demand. Palladium climbed 0.6% to $1576.25 while spot platinum rose 1.9% to $1816.15.
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The number of foreigners visiting Vietnam has reached a record high, despite floods and pollution
Vietnam's culture ministry said that the country is on course to receive 21 million foreign tourists, which reflects the strong recovery from the COVID-19 epidemic. This is despite the chronic air pollution, and deadly floods. Vietnam is one of the top tourist destinations in Southeast Asia. It has a long coastline and natural landscapes, as well as a rich culture and history. In a late-night statement, the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism announced that the country celebrated the arrival of "the 20 millionth" foreign tourist of the past year with a ceremony held on Phu Quoc Island. According to the Ministry, this year's number of "foreign arrivals" will surpass the 18 million record set in 2019 before the pandemic and be up 19.3% on last year. Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, has topped this year's list?of most polluted cities in the world on multiple occasions. Meanwhile, other popular tourist destinations like Hue and Hoi An, as well as Nha Trang, have suffered from heavy flooding. Due to COVID travel restrictions, Vietnam's foreign arrivals in 2021 will be the lowest ever recorded. According to the National Statistics Office, China was the leading source of foreign tourists in Vietnam for the first eleven months of this calendar year. It accounted?for one quarter of total visitors. South Korea, Taiwan and the United States are also major sources. (Reporting and editing by David Stanway; Khanh Vu is the reporter)
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Copper prices fall on the back of weak Chinese economic data
Prices of copper fell on Tuesday as a result of weak economic data coming from China, the world's largest consumer. There were also renewed fears about a possible artificial intelligence bubble. As of 0315 GMT, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.29%, to 91380?yuan (12,975.87 dollars) per metric ton. The benchmark copper for three months on the?the?London Metal Exchange dropped 0.91% to $11,550 per ton. According to Monday's data, China's factory production slowed down to its lowest level in 15 months, and new home prices also continued to fall. Red metal, used in construction, manufacturing, and power generation, declined because of disappointing data. This is despite the weakening dollar, which supports commodities that are traded in greenbacks by making them more affordable for investors who use other currencies. Copper also suffered from renewed fears of the AI bubble burst, which triggered a sharp sell-off last Friday, after the red metal had reached an all-time-high. Nickel, another base metal in the SHFE, has fallen to a new 40-month low at 111,770 Yuan per ton. As of 0315 GMT, it was down 2.68$ a ton to 111.920 yuan. The Shanghai nickel followed the London benchmark which fell as low as $14.235 per ton on Monday, the lowest level since April. On Tuesday, the three-month nickel price on the LME fell 0.49% and reached $13,275 per tonne. Nornickel, a Russian mining giant, raised its nickel surplus expectations on Monday. The 2025 surplus, which is expected to rise significantly from the 120,000 tons forecast in July, is now 240,000 tons. And the 2026 surplus, at 275,000 tons is also expected to increase from the 130,000 tons forecast in July. Since 2023, nickel, a metal that is used in batteries and stainless steel, has experienced a glut of supply due to a surge in production from?Indonesia. Traders said that the recent decline was due to a weakening demand for metals ahead of the year-end. Nickel pig iron (NPI), Nickel sulfate Since mid-October, the number of people using these services has been declining. Nickel sulfate, a raw material used in batteries, is made from NPI. Shanghai nickel has lost over 11% this year and London copper is down by almost 7%. Tin was the most affected metal on the Shanghai market. It fell by 3.92%, to 318.070 yuan per ton. Aluminium fell 0.96%; zinc dropped 1.69%, and lead shed 1.38%. Tuesday, December 16 DATA/EVENTS (GMT) 0700 UK ILO Unemployment?Rate Oct 0700 UK HMRC Payrolls Change Nov 0700 UK Claimant Count Unem Chng Nov 0815 France HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI Dec 0830 Germany HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI Dec 0900 EU HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI Dec 0930 United Kingdom Flash Composite, Manufacturing, Service, PMI Tuesday, December 16, DATA/EVENTS(GMT) 0700 UK HMRC payrolls change Nov 0700 UK claimant count Unem Chng Dec 0830 Germany Flash Composite Manufacturing, Services PMI, Dec 0900 EU Flash Composite Manufacturing, Services PMI, Dec 0930 UK
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Iron ore prices rise in anticipation of holiday stocking
The price of iron ore futures rebounded Tuesday, after hitting a five-month-low in the previous?session. This was due to the expectation that steel mills will restock for the Lunar New Year holiday in China, the top consumer. As of 0215 GMT on Tuesday, the most traded iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange added 0.66%, to 758 Yuan ($107.63), a metric tonne, after dropping 0.92% Monday. As of 0205 GMT, the benchmark January 'iron ore' on the Singapore Exchange had risen 0.41%, to $101.95 per ton. It had previously approached the psychologically important level of $100. Chinese steelmakers book cargoes well in advance during the Lunar New Year, when logistics are slow. Analysts said that the relative tightness in the market for ore has been created by the fact that BHP is a heavy user of two grades of medium-grade ore. This has led to a rise in the futures price of the index as well as the index itself. But higher supplies offset the losses. As of December 14, the consultancy Mysteel reported that shipments from Australia and Brazil, two major suppliers, had risen 11.7% on a weekly basis to 29,67 million tons. Prices for 'the main steelmaking feedstock' have been impacted by concerns about a growing supply and a weakening of demand in the last quarter. China's plans to regulate steel exports from 2026 has also contributed to the demand problems. Coking coal and coke, the other ingredients used in steelmaking, fell by 0.62% apiece, while advancing by 0.27%. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been moving sideways. Rebar was up by 0.23%. Hot-rolled coils were also up 0.28%. Wire rod fell 0.39%. Stainless steel dropped 1.67%. ($1 = 7,0428 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Investors on edge as they await data and central bank meetings
The dollar dipped to near two-month lows as Asian stocks fell on Tuesday. Investors were cautious ahead of the release of several U.S. economic data points, such as the jobs report. These reports may be used to gauge the direction of Federal Reserve policy in the coming year. Bitcoin, which?hit an all-time low of $56,407.53 in the previous session, was also under pressure due to the defensive mood. Safe haven gold slid to eight-week highs, and was bought at $4,307.69 an ounce. This is up 0.15% for the day. Investors are watching the U.S. combined employment report for October and for November, due on Tuesday. They will also be looking at the inflation report, which is scheduled for Thursday. However, a few key details may not be available because the longest government shut down in history prevented data from being collected. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 1% at the opening of trading. Tokyo's Nikkei index and South Korea benchmark index both dropped over 1%. Nasdaq and European futures both fell by 0.5%, signaling a possible shaky opening. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist of?Saxo. He said that the market treats this week's data as a'mini reset' to the U.S. macro-narrative, since the jobs, retail sales, and inflation numbers are all coming in a short window, which can quickly?reprice the rates. The Fed cut interest rates last week as expected, and forecast one more cut in 2026. Markets are pricing at least two additional rate cuts next year. Chanana explained that if the data are mixed and slightly softer, the narrative of a soft landing will remain intact. However, it might not be the backdrop for a large risk-on rally. The real risk is a hawkish shock. If inflation or jobs prints hotter, then yields will rise and risk assets - especially long-term growth – will feel it first. As the term of Fed Chair Jerome Powell ends in May, speculation has been rampant about a potential frontrunner. The expectation of a more dovish Fed chairman has also increased bets on rate cuts in 2019. This week, attention will be focused on the policy decisions of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. The BoE will likely cut rates while the BOJ will likely hike. There is a general consensus that the ECB's rates will stay the same. The euro is at $1.1752 after reaching its highest level in currencies since October's start. Sterling was slightly weaker, at $1.3369. The dollar index?which compares the U.S. dollar to six other currencies remained stable at 98.295. However, it remained near its lowest point in almost two months. Early Asian hours saw the Japanese yen rise to 155.07 per U.S. Dollar. The markets have already priced in a rate increase, so the focus will be on clues as to what is coming?in 2026. The market's reaction will be determined by the nuances in the BOJ communication, and whether Governor (Kazuo Ueda) can give a hawkish impression while not being able fully to commit on the timing of future hikes," said Gregor Hirt. The BOJ may choose to emphasize data dependency and assess the impact of the hike before signaling any further actions, which the markets could interpret as dovish or cautious. Oil prices dropped in commodities as investors weighed disruptions related to escalating U.S. - Venezuelan tensions, oversupply fears and the potential impact of a Russia-Ukraine deal. Brent crude futures dropped 0.4% to $60.32 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.39% to $56.6 a barrel. Both contracts fell more than 4% in the last week due to expectations of an oil surplus worldwide by 2026. (Reporting from Ankur Banerjee, Singapore Editing by Shri Navaratnam).
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Oil prices fall on Ukraine talks and weak China data
The oil prices dropped in the early trade on Tuesday. This was a continuation of previous sessions'?losses as prospects of a Russia-Ukraine deal seemed to?strengthen, raising expectations for a possible?easing sanctions. Brent?crude futures dropped 24 cents or 0.40% to $60.32 a bar by 0101 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was trading at $56.60 a bar, down 22 cents or 0.39%. U.S. officials said that the U.S. offered NATO-style security guarantees to Ukraine during talks with its president in Berlin. This unprecedented move sparked hope in some European capitals, that the?talks are drawing closer to negotiations to end the conflict. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that soft?Chinese data released over night further increased concerns about global?demand not being strong enough to absorb the recent growth in supply. Official data released on Monday showed that China's factory production growth has slowed down to its lowest level in 15 months. Retail sales grew at the slowest rate since December '2022, when COVID-19 was a pandemic. Data raised concerns about China's strategy to rely on exports in order to offset weak domestic demand. A cooling economy will further increase demand in the world's biggest buyer of oil. The use of electric cars is already increasing the petroleum consumption. These factors have offset any concerns about supply following the U.S. seizure of an oil tanker last week off the coasts of Venezuela. Analysts and traders said that a glut in floating storage, and an increase in Chinese purchases from Venezuela ahead of sanctions also limit the impact on the market. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman; Colleen howe)
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South Africa increases coal exports after Colombia ban
South African miners have increased thermal coal exports after Colombia, the top supplier, banned shipments to Israel in August. Data from Kpler LSEG, and DBX Commodities revealed this. Colombia and South Africa are among Israel's loudest critics. The South American nation issued a presidential decree that enacted the export ban, after accusing Israel for killing tens-of-thousands in Gaza, including children. South Africa accused Israel of genocide before the International Court of Justice. Israel's Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu rejected this claim. Data from Kpler shows that Colombian coal exports into Israel fell to zero during the three-month period ending November after Bogota redoubled its efforts to ban and blocked supplies under long term deals. South Africa's exports increased by 87% in the three-month period ending November, to 474,000 tons, on an annual basis. It is expected to ship 170,000 tons of goods this month. The South African Revenue Service's latest data showed that coal exports to Israel increased 20% in the three months ending October, to 667.442 tons - the highest three-month period for the last two years. Patrick Bond, Director of the Centre for Social Change at the University of Johannesburg, who tracks South African coal exports to Israel, said: "Four words describe this profound hypocrisy. Talk left, walk right." Bond stated that more than a dozen South African based coal exporters had been shipping electricity grade coal to Israel since 2023. Kpler data showed that all cargoes Israel imported since September were from South Africa. The South African mines ministry has not responded to requests for comment. Trade Minister Parks Tau stated last year that sanctions imposed on Israel could expose the country to legal challenges under World Trade Organization regulations. Colombia, a member of the WTO, has also not faced any challenges following its implementation. SOUTH AFRICA EXPORTS SURGE Kpler data shows that South Africa's coal exports to Israel have increased over the past four years. By 2025, its coal exports to Israel will be at their highest level since 2017. Its share of the seaborne coal market in Israel is expected to triple from levels in 2024 to 55%. According to data, Colombia will account for 42 percent of Israel's 2,000,000 tons of coal imports in this year. The data shows that Russia exported just one cargo weighing 55,000 tons in 2024. This represents less than 3%. Alexandre Claude of DBX Commodities in London said: "I expect that the trend of Colombian imports to Israel will remain near zero over the short- to mid-term." "Colombia is re-directing a little more coal to other buyers." He said that the country's portfolio is already highly diversified. Israel's energy and economy ministries have not responded to requests for comment. Israel Electric Co. senior official said that the country will stop using coal for its major energy source by 2027. "The coal era in Israel is over." The official stated that we will stop importing the coal and instead use natural gas for our main energy source. Coal will only be used as a back-up in an emergency. (Reporting from Sudarshan Varadhan in Singapore, Wendell Roelf and Steven Scheer respectively in Cape Town, Jerusalem and Cape Town; Additional reporting from Nelson Banya at Cape Town; Editing done by Jamie Freed).
Gold gains are reduced as peace talks with Ukraine progress. US jobs data is the focus.
Spot gold retreated from its earlier gains after progress was made in the crucial?talks' between U.S. officials, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy?aimed at ending?the war. Traders awaited important U.S. employment data.
By 01:55 pm, spot gold had risen 0.2% to $4,309.82 per ounce. ET (18:55 GMT), following a rise of more than 1% in the earlier session. U.S. Gold Futures closed 0.2% higher, at $4335.2 per ounce.
Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, says that the progress in Russia-Ukraine talks appears to be dampening demand for safe-haven gold.
He also added that the gold market is under pressure due to profit-taking, and liquidation of futures contracts by traders who purchased them earlier.
Steve Witkoff, the U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine, said that "a lot of progress has been made in Ukraine discussions," while an?U.S. Officials from both sides said that they have made progress in reducing the differences between Russia, Ukraine and other countries.
The Federal Reserve will release its non-farm payrolls and retail data on Tuesday. This information could provide traders with more clues about the direction of the Fed's policy. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the markets are pricing in 78% of a rate reduction in January 2026.
Gold is traditionally seen as a safe haven asset. It tends to do well in times of geopolitical or economic uncertainty.
Silver spot rose 2.6%, to $63.61, from a record high of $64.65 reached on Friday. It is still within striking distance of the $65/oz mark.
Silver is the most popular precious metal. Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that by the end of next year we could be trading above $65 and as early as quarter one of the following year I could see up to $70.
While spot platinum rose 2.5%, to $1.788.55, its highest level since Sept. 2011, palladium also reached a new two-month high with a nearly?5% increase to $1.560.25 an ounce.
Nornickel of Russia, the largest palladium producer in the world, stated that the market for palladium could be deficient by 0.2 million ounces, including investment demand.
(source: Reuters)