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Oil prices fluctuate as markets wait for clarity on Trump's tariffs against Canada and Mexico
The oil prices were not much different on Thursday, as the markets prepared for the threat of tariffs from U.S. president Donald Trump against Mexico and Canada, two of United States' largest crude oil suppliers. They also awaited a OPEC+ meeting. Brent crude futures fell 7 cents or 0.1% to $76.51 per barrel at 0411 GMT. U.S. Crude Futures were barely changed, with a 2 cent increase, or 0.03% to $72.64. On Wednesday, U.S. Crude Futures settled at the lowest price of this year. Karoline Lavitt, White House spokesperson, told reporters Tuesday that Trump will still follow through on his promise on Saturday to impose tariffs against Canada and Mexico. Howard Lutnick is Trump's nominee for the Commerce Department. He said that Canada and Mexico could avoid tariffs by closing their borders quickly to fentanyl. Lutnick also promised to slow China's artificial intelligence advancement. The U.S. crude oil stocks rose 3.46 million barrels during the week. This is in line with the analysts' estimates of a 3.19 million-barrel rise, due to the winter storms which swept across the country. After the recent U.S. sanctions, traders and calculations show that crude oil exports in Russia's west ports are expected to drop by 8% compared to the January plan, as Moscow increases refining. Investors also look forward to a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies scheduled for February 3. Kazakhstan announced on Wednesday that the OPEC+ group, which includes major oil producers, will discuss Trump's attempts to increase U.S. production of oil and adopt a common stance. Russia is also a part of the OPEC+. Trump publicly called for OPEC, and its leader, Saudi Arabia to lower oil price, saying that this would put an end to the conflict in Ukraine. He also has a plan to maximize the U.S. production of oil and gas, which is already the largest in the world. Analysts believe that a price battle between the U.S., OPEC+ and other countries is unlikely because it could hurt both. In a recent note, analysts at BMI (a division of Fitch Group) said that a price war would see OPEC+ producers increase their output in order to reduce prices and push shale oil production down. According to them, Brent crude oil could fall below $50 because OPEC+ has the capacity to deploy 5 million barrels per day of spare oil. This would lead to a drop in U.S. shale production and prices. Reporting by Arathy Golubkova and Katya Somasekhar, both in Houston; editing by Sonali and Kim Coghill.
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Gold at a tight range as Trump's policies and inflation data focus attention
Investors focused on the tariff plans of U.S. president Donald Trump and an important inflation report to get a sense of monetary policy. As of 0402 GMT, spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,761.44 an ounce. U.S. Gold futures rose 0.1% to $2.773.30. The premium was nearly $12 over the spot rate. Investors will now be awaiting Friday's release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report to determine the trajectory of inflation. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that there was no hurry to reduce interest rates until inflation and job data indicated it would be appropriate. Bullion is a good hedge against inflation. However, higher interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding gold. Soni Kumari is a commodity analyst at ANZ. She said that the investment demand must increase in order to keep gold prices from falling below $2,900. The outcome will depend on the policy changes, inflation and geopolitical risk, according to Kumari. The White House announced earlier this week that Trump plans to impose steep tariffs against Mexico and Canada on Saturday, and is "very much considering" imposing some on China. London's bullion players are racing to borrow from central banks gold, after a surge of gold deliveries to the U.S. amid fears about tariffs. The European Central Bank will almost certainly cut rates in the afternoon and keep the door open to more policy easing. Silver spot was up by 0.2%, at $30.88 an ounce. Platinum rose 1.2%, to 957.67. Palladium was up by 0.9%, to $970.58. (Reporting and editing by Rashmia Aich and Subhranshu Shu in Bengaluru.
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Aluminium firms following EU ban on Russian imports
London aluminium prices rose on Thursday, after the European Union proposed to ban imports of this metal from Russia as part of a new package of sanctions in response to its invasion of Ukraine. The price of three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.3%, to $2.626 per metric ton at 0215 GMT. The proposal stated that the EU ban would cover aluminium alloys, and there would be a phase-in of one year. Imports "necessary", amounting to 275,000 metric tonnes, were exempt from this ban. Trade Data Monitor reports that the 27-member bloc imported 330,000 tonnes of Russian primary aluminum and alloys between January and November last year. Daniel Hynes senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank said that aluminium led base metals to rise after the EU proposal. Hynes stated that the threat of additional sanctions on Russia's aluminium led to an increase in metal heading to China. The benchmark copper price remained at $9072 after Wednesday's drop to its lowest level since January 8 The dollar index dropped 0.1% from the one-week high reached in the previous session, as the Federal Reserve put a pause on its easing program overnight. The greenback is cheaper to those who hold other currencies. In an earlier statement, Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he planned to impose tariffs against aluminium, steel, and copper. The White House reiterated this position on Tuesday, saying that Trump will still impose tariffs against Canada and Mexico this Saturday. He is also considering new tariffs against China. Citi stated in a report that "we continue to expect LME flat metal prices to weaken in response to confirmations of larger tariffs." We expect the Comex copper price to be higher than LME as soon as tariffs have been confirmed and implemented. LME zinc rose by 0.2%, to $2,787.5 per ton. Lead rose by 0.4%, to $1,967.5, and tin gained 0.3%, to $30,195. Nickel fell 0.5%, to $15,425. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will be closed during the Lunar New Year holidays. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu S. Sahu, with Ashitha Shivaprasad reporting from Bengaluru).
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Oil prices steady while markets wait for clarity on Trump's tariffs on Canada and Mexico
Early trading on Thursday saw little change in crude oil prices as the markets awaited tariffs from U.S. president Donald Trump against Mexico and Canada, two of the largest suppliers of crude to United States. Brent crude futures were up 7 cents or 0.1% at $76.71 per barrel as of 0122 GMT. U.S. Crude Futures rose 17 cents or 0.2% to $72.79 On Wednesday, U.S. Crude Futures settled at the lowest price of this year. Karoline Leavitt, White House spokesperson, told reporters Tuesday that President Donald Trump plans to fulfill his promise on Saturday to impose tariffs on Canada & Mexico. Howard Lutnick is Trump's nominee for the Commerce Department. He said that Canada and Mexico could avoid tariffs by closing their borders quickly to fentanyl. Lutnick also promised to slow China's artificial intelligence advancement. The U.S. crude oil stocks rose 3.46 million barrels during the week ending January 29, roughly in line analysts' estimates of a 3.19 million-barrel rise, due to the winter storms which ravaged the country. Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chairperson, said that the U.S. Central Bank held interest rates at their current level on Wednesday. He added that there was no rush to reduce them until new data indicated a return of falling inflation or a rise in risks in employment. Lower borrowing costs increase economic activity and fuel demand. Investors are also looking forward to a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies scheduled for February 3. Kazakhstan announced on Wednesday that the OPEC+ group, which includes leading oil producers, will discuss Trump's attempts to increase U.S. production of oil and adopt a common stance. Trump also publicly urged OPEC, and its largest member Saudi Arabia, lower oil prices to end the conflict in Ukraine. The group has already drafted a plan to gradually undo previous cuts and start increasing oil production in April. This plan was delayed multiple times due to weak demand. (Reporting and editing by Sonali Paul in Houston, Arathy Smasekhar)
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Powell: Fed is guided by law and economics, not politics.
Responding to a variety of questions on the impact of the Trump Administration on the U.S. Central Bank, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that politics was not the reason for the Fed's departure from a global group focused on climate change, and it would not influence its interest rate decisions. Powell said that while the Fed was working to align their workforce policies with the executive order of President Donald Trump banning diversity and inclusion promotion, any changes would only be minor, and they will be in line with the applicable laws. Powell also stated that he is still convinced that diversity is the hallmark of successful organisations. The Fed is very careful to protect its independence in monetary policy, as it believes that any political influence on the central bank's interest rate setting will undermine its ability control inflation. Trump, who criticized Powell and Fed frequently during his first term is again testing these limits. He said last week that he will "demand" immediate rate cuts. Powell, when asked Wednesday about the President's remarks, said: "It is not appropriate to comment." He added that "the public can be assured that we will do our work in the same way we have always done it, using our tools and focusing on our goals, while keeping our heads down." He said that with inflation still exceeding its 2% target, the Fed will wait to see if there is any further progress in inflation or a weakening of the labor market before cutting interest rates. He declined to make any predictions about how Trump's trade, immigration, tax and regulation policies would impact the economy. He said that the committee was waiting to see which policies were implemented. DODD-FRANK: EXECUTIVE ORDINANCE Trump launched a new attack shortly after the press conference. Trump posted on Truth Social that if the Fed spent less time on DEI and gender ideology, "green" energy, and fake global warming, inflation would not have been an issue. He promised to fix it with his policies. Around the time of Trump’s Jan. 20, 2017 inauguration, and his executive order, which directed government agencies to stop efforts to promote DEI, or diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), The Fed and its 12 regional banks removed sections of their websites devoted to racial diversity and gender diversity. Changes include the removal of data about the number of women and minority economists at the Fed, and standards for diversity in the workforce. These standards were developed to meet the requirements of the Dodd-Frank Financial Reforms, passed by Congress in 2010. Maxine Waters (Democrat) has argued that a Dodd-Frank executive order can't undo the legal requirement under Dodd-Frank to promote diversity and inclusivity. Powell said that "we're reviewing orders and associated details" for the new diversity policy. "As we have done in previous administrations, our goal is to align our policies as necessary with executive orders, consistent with the applicable law." He didn't mention any possible policy changes in recruitment or hiring at Central Bank. FED LEAVES CLIMATE RISE GROUP Three days before Trump’s inauguration, Fed withdrew its membership from a global organization of central banks devoted to exploring methods to reduce climate risks in the financial sector. In 2020, after the election of Democrat Joe Biden as president and the end of Trump's term, the Fed joined the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors to Green the Financial System. Powell explained that the decision was not driven by politics. "I am aware of how it may appear, but it wasn't," Powell said. Powell said that he decided to discuss the possibility of leaving "some months ago," because the group's mandate had expanded and it "wasn't a good match for the Fed anymore." Some analysts still see the recent Fed actions as a way to undermine Fed independence. Michael Barr, Fed Vice-Chair for Supervision, announced earlier in January that he would step down from his regulatory oversight position by the end next month. This will allow Trump to replace him with someone who has a more lenient approach, in line with Trump’s preferences and the Republican majority of Congress. Derek Tang, a LH Meyer analyst, wrote that "Republican pressure on the Fed would be felt in all areas of its activity," even though Powell's strategy seemed to be to maintain monetary policy autonomy even at the expense of giving up autonomy in other fields. (Reporting and editing by Ann Saphir; reporting by Michael S. Derby, Howard Schneider, and Dan Burns)
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US Senate confirms Zeldin to be EPA administrator
The U.S. Senate voted on Wednesday, 56-42, to confirm former Republican congressman Lee Zeldin as the head of the Environmental Protection Agency. Zeldin will be tasked to roll back climate regulations from former President Joe Biden, which were aimed to reduce emissions from factories, power plants, and vehicles. Zeldin is the 44-year-old nominee of President Donald Trump to lead EPA deregulation efforts. He will remove obstacles on oil and natural gas drilling, and reverse course on Biden's emission rules aimed at encouraging more electric vehicle usage. Three Democrats supported the former New York Representative, Arizona Senators Mark Kelly, Ruben Gallego and Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman. Zeldin's confirmation hearing was a breeze this month. Some Democrats asked him to clarify Trump and his views on climate change and whether greenhouse gas emissions are regulated. The EPA will review its "endangerment findings" - a determination by the agency that greenhouse gas emission harms human health. This is the basis for the agency's power to regulate heat-trapping emissions emitted from cars and smokestacks. Zeldin told senators that a 2007 Supreme Court decision gave the agency statutory power to regulate heat-trapping green house gases, but it did not obligate EPA to act. Zeldin, a New York Congressman, voted against legislation addressing green issues. He also voted in opposition to a measure that would have stopped oil companies from extorting prices. Zeldin, a 2022 candidate for governor of New York, criticized his state's decision not to join California's Zero Emission Vehicle program which aims to eliminate the sale gasoline-powered vehicles by the year 2035. Trump said he aimed to reverse many of the rules that the EPA administers on the burning fossil fuels, including one that curbs carbon emissions from power stations and another that reduces such emissions from cars. Trump said he would begin rescinding EPA vehicle pollution regulations and Transportation Department rules on his very first day as president. He also wants to reduce or eliminate EV incentives and tax breaks. Environmental groups have criticized the confirmation. They claim that Zeldin's priority will be to carry out Trump’s agenda, rather than follow environmental laws. Lena Moffitt, Executive Director of Evergreen Action, said that Zeldin, as the administration attempts to eliminate the environmental protections and investments in clean energy, has stated he is willing to follow suit, reversing essential safeguards. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, Chair of the Senate Environment Committee applauded Zeldin's confirmation. She said that Zeldin was "well qualified" and "capable of returning the EPA back to its core mission of protecting land, water, and air without hindering economic development." Richard Cowan contributed additional reporting; Chris Reese, David Gregorio and Chris Reese edited the article.
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Texas oilfield accident kills one and injures two
On Monday, ProPetro Services conducted fracking at a Permian Resources Corporation well site in Texas. One man died and two other people were injured. Edward Rodriguez, 45 years old, died when a pressured device ruptured. Two other workers were taken to hospital. According to a Reeves County Sheriff's Office statement, ProPetro has shut down its fracking operation and turned off the power in the area during a safety inspection. ProPetro released a statement confirming the incident and stating that the company is working with relevant authorities to determine what caused the incident. Permian Resources Corp has not responded to a comment request. The Sheriff's Office Criminal Investigation Division investigators determined that the incident was caused by a pressurized pipe containing approximately 9,000 pounds per sq. inch. Investigators found a pipe with two valves on both ends that had been disconnected in the incident. Sheriff's Office did not find any evidence of criminal activity. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is investigating this incident. (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio, Lisa Shumaker, and Georgina McCartney from Houston)
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One dead and two injured in fatal Texas oilfield accident
On Monday, ProPetro Services conducted fracking at a Permian Resources Corporation well site in Texas. One man died and two other people were injured. Edward Rodriguez, 45 years old, died when a pressured device ruptured. Two other workers were taken to hospital. According to a Reeves County Sheriff's Office statement, ProPetro has shut down its fracking operation and turned off the power in the area during a safety investigation. ProPetro and Permian Resources Corp have not responded to requests for comment. The Sheriff's Office Criminal Investigation Division investigators determined that the incident was caused by a pressurized pipe containing approximately 9,000 pounds per sq inch. Investigators found a pipe with two valves on both ends that had been disconnected in the incident. At the time of the investigation, no foul play was suspected. OSHA is still investigating. (Reporting from Georgina McCartney, Houston; Editing and proofreading by David Gregorio).
Congo rebel gains to boost illegal mineral trade through Rwanda, analysts state
A lightning advance in Congo's. mineralrich eastern borderlands is set to increase the M23. disobedience's unlawful mining profits, with experts forecasting a. additional rise in illicit trade in minerals consisting of coltan and. gold through neighbouring Rwanda. The Rwandabacked revolt got in Goma, eastern Democratic. Republic of Congo's biggest city, today, marking a significant. turning point in a conflict with government forces that has. raised fears of a spillover into a wider local war.
The rebels, which Rwanda denies supporting, have actually long been. funded a minimum of in part by the illicit mineral trade. Those. earnings flows heightened after M23 - the latest in a long line. of Tutsi-led disobediences - took the coltan-rich Rubaya location in. April, U.N. experts discovered.
Congo is the world's top manufacturer of tantalum and cobalt, a. essential part in batteries for electric automobiles and mobile. phones, and is also home to significant coltan and gold. deposits.
Mineral exports from Rwanda are now over a billion dollars. a year, stated Jason Stearns, a political scientist at Simon. Fraser University and previous U.N. investigator.
That's about double what they were 2 years ago. And we. don't know just how much, but a reasonable portion of that is from the DRC.
Rwanda's ambassador-at-large for the Great Lakes area. Vincent Karega declined the concept that M23 was trafficking. Congolese minerals. He did not directly deal with claims that. his federal government is involved in their illegal trade.
Do you think it's possible to eliminate and still have time to. mine natural deposits and fine-tune them? said Karega, who has. been sent out to the border with Congo to supervise the crisis.
LACK OF TRANSPARENCY
Rebels recently captured the mining town Lumbishi in South. Kivu province. Numbi, an eastern mining area in South Kivu rich. in gold, tourmaline, and tin, tantalum and tungsten - so-called. 3T minerals used in computer systems and cellphones - is likewise under. risk.
Lumbishi and its cash cow are likely to prove a. significant source of income for M23, in part because gold is. a lot easier to monetise than coltan and tin, said Gregory. Mthembu-Salter, director of Phuzumoya Consulting. He said gold was most likely to make its way to Dubai by means of Rwanda and. perhaps Kenya.
In 2023, UAE stated importing about $885 million in gold. from Rwanda, a 75% dive from the previous five-year average,. according to a Reuters analysis of U.N. Comtrade data. Rwanda is. not a significant gold manufacturer. In addition to applying administrative control over Rubaya, M23. has likewise developed a monopoly for the export of coltan to Rwanda. from the nearby Bibatama mine, U.N. experts stated in a December. report. The mine is one of the world's largest deposits of. coltan, used in cellular phones and laptops.
The group gathered a minimum of $800,000 monthly in taxes on. coltan production and trade, according to the report, with. Congolese output blended in with Rwandan production.
Jean Pierre Okenda, a Congo-based rights legal representative specialised. in extractive industries, stated Rwanda was not a member of any. international transparency efforts, making it hard to track. its minerals.
There is a lack of transparency of the mining operations. and ... an absence of transparency of the geological information, he. stated.
(source: Reuters)