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India's March Industrial Output Misses Expectations but Rebounds from 6-Month Low
India's industrial production in March fell short of economists' expectations due to a faster data release and a slower mining activity. However, it rebounded after a six-month high in the preceding month, according to government data released on Monday. The industrial output in March grew by 3% compared with the 3.3% expected by economists and a revised 2,7% in February. The data revealed that mining activity increased at a slower rate of 0.4%, compared with 1.6% one month earlier. The manufacturing output increased by 3% in march, compared to a revised 2.8% the month before. Meanwhile, electricity production grew from 3.6% to 6.3%. India announced earlier this month that it would release its monthly industrial production growth figures on the 28th day of each month. This will reduce the 42-day interval between data releases. Aditi Nayar is an economist with ICRA. She said that the data's release early may have dampened estimates of growth. This could be revised more later. The output of consumer durables, including household appliances and cars, increased 6.6% in march, compared to a 3.7% increase in February. The output of capital goods (which includes machinery and manufacturing plants) increased by 2.4% in march, compared with an increase of 8.2% in the previous month. The industrial output grew by 4% between April and March, a slowdown from the 5.9% increase in the previous period. Although the United States is currently engaged in positive trade negotiations with India, concerns over possible U.S. tariffs on imports and abrupt policy changes continue to loom over global industries.
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Copper prices continue to rise, but the focus is on U.S. China trade tensions
The copper price remained stable on Monday, as traders awaited further developments in U.S. China trade relations. They also hoped to get hints about the prospects for demand in China where U.S. tariffs on imports are putting pressure on growth. By 1035 GMT, the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange (LME), was almost unchanged at $9.376.50 per metric ton. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, insists that there have been positive developments with China and that he spoke with President Xi Jinping. Beijing, however, has denied that trade talks have taken place, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent didn't say on Sunday that tariff negotiations were in progress. Ewa Mnthey, ING commodities analyst, said that the metals market is particularly concerned about the impact of tariffs imposed on China - as it is their biggest customer. The demand for industrial metals and copper is expected to fall as the U.S. economy slows down due to tariffs and China struggles to revive its own economy. Analysts believe that further Chinese measures to support the growth and demand of copper, which is widely used in the construction and power industries, could limit any downside. China is advancing its stimulus plans for this year, but it's holding back on new measures to maintain composure. It hopes that Washington will blink first in the protracted trade dispute. Copper prices are supported by a huge drop in inventories In warehouses monitored Shanghai Futures Exchange, which fell 32% last weekend to 116.753 tons compared with the previous week. Due to a shortage of scrap, some Chinese copper users have turned to refined copper. Technically, copper is supported by the 100-day and 200-day moving averges at $9,305 and $ 9,320 respectively. The industrial metal markets await the survey of purchasing managers from China's manufacturing industry, due this week. It is expected to show a decline in activity in April. Other metals saw a 0.3% increase in aluminum at $2,434.50 per ton. Zinc was down 0.4% at $2,636.50. Lead was up 1.3% at $1,968.50. Tin was down 0.1% at $30,950. Nickel was up 1.1% to $15,710 per ton. (Reporting and editing by Vijay Kishore in Bengaluru)
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Bright Smart, a $362 million Bright Group acquisition by China's Ant Group, enters the brokerage business
Ant Group, a subsidiary of China's ecommerce giant Alibaba Group is purchasing a controlling stake of $362 million in Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group. This marks its first acquisition for a securities broker licence. The companies announced in a Friday joint statement that Ant had agreed to purchase a 50,55% stake in Bright Smart at HK$2.81billion ($362.26m). Bright Smart Chairman Yip Mowlum is selling 857.98 millions shares at HK$3.28 per share to Ant Group's Wealthiness & Prosperity holding, which will have to make a mandatory unconditional cash offer for the entire issued shares. Bright Smart shares nearly doubled to a record-high of HK$6 before closing Monday at HK$5.55, or 82% more than the previous share price of HK$3.05 prior to trading being halted on 24 April. The company's share price rose by the highest percentage in a single day since its listing on August 10, 2010. Hang Seng Index, the benchmark Hang Seng index, was flat on Monday. According to a joint statement, Ant intends Bright Smart to remain listed on the stock exchange. Alibaba controls 33% of Ant, which was founded by Jack Ma. It runs China's ubiquitous Alipay mobile payment app. Bloomberg reported that Ant refinanced its credit line of $6.5 billion in September, and part of this capital was intended to bolster its overseas operations. Chinese authorities cancelled Ant's $37-billion IPO in Shanghai & Hong Kong for 2020. They also cracked down on Ma’s business empire shortly after Ma’s speech in Shanghai, October of that year. He had accused financial watchdogs at the time of stifling innovations. This led to the Chinese regulators fining Ant nearly $1 billion and forcing Ant into a forced restructure. Ant is currently securing a licence for a financial holding, which could help it achieve its IPO. Reporting by Hong Kong Newsroom; Editing Muralikumar Aantharaman and Rachna uppal
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India's UltraTech Cement misses its profit forecasts due to soft prices
UltraTech Cement India's largest cement producer by capacity reported a fourth-quarter profit that was below the market expectation on Monday. This was due to weak pricing and increased costs. LSEG data shows that the company's consolidated profit for the three-month period ended March 31 was 24.82 billion rupees (US$292 million), compared with analysts' estimates of 26.31 trillion rupees. UltraTech's total revenue, including its deal with Kesoram came to 230.63 trillion rupees. This is in line with the average analyst estimate. The total expenses increased by 15%, mostly due to rising raw material and electricity costs. The revenue for the year was 226.69 billion rupiahs. This is 11% more than last year. The favorable spring weather conditions boosted construction activity, which increased demand for cement. This in turn led to price increases by companies. Data from Ambit Capital revealed that, on average, cement prices in the fourth quarter were about 2% lower than they had been a year earlier. UltraTech's volume increased by 17% in the past year, which is within the range of 14%-21% estimated by three brokerages rated highest on LSEG based on their accuracy. $1 = 84.9870 Indian Rupees (Reporting and editing by Sherry Phillips in Bengaluru, Varun H K).
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Reliance Results and foreign inflows boost sentiment
Indian shares rose Monday on the back of better-than expected earnings from Reliance Industries, and steady inflows of foreign capital, which helped markets to shrug off a risk-off mood amid India-Pakistan tensions. The BSE Sensex rose 1.27%, or 1.2%, to 80.218, while the Nifty 50 gained 1.2%. Reliance Industries rose 5.26% to a six-month-high, contributing to a third of the gains in the Nifty 50 after analysts upgraded the stock following a fourth-quarter profit beating. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), despite tensions between India, Pakistan and the aftermath of the attack on Kashmir, continued to buy Indian stocks at the end of the session for the eighth time in a row, further boosting sentiment. There was a lot fear about what could happen at the border. The fact that there has been no major incident has given the market some hope," said G Chokkalingam. He is founder and head researcher at Equinomics. Chokkalingam added that besides this, the expectation of a bilateral agreement between India and America, New Delhi’s relative resistance to tariffs in comparison to China, and interest in large-caps with attractive valuations, such as Reliance, could keep markets buoyant. IT closed down 0.2% on Monday. Heavyweight financials with significant exposure to foreign investors rose by 1%. The IT index rose 6.6% in the last week. The mid-cap and small-cap indices both rose by 0.8% and 1.6% respectively. Mahindra & Mahindra, among other stocks rose 2.3%. It was also one of the six top gainers on Nifty after it announced its plans to purchase a majority stake in SML Isuzu at a price of 5.55 billion rupees. SML Isuzu, however, fell 10% because the deal valued shares at a discount of 63.3% to Friday's close. Defence stocks rose 4.1%. An official in the Indian defence ministry confirmed that India had signed a contract with France to purchase 26 Rafale aircraft for $7.41 billion.
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Cemex, the Mexican cement company, has seen its core profits fall due to a weaker local market.
Cemex, the Mexican cement manufacturer, reported a 18% drop in its core earnings in the first quarter of the year on Monday. This was largely due to headwinds in local markets. Cemex's earnings were $601 million in line with expectations, due to the weaker peso and lower volumes in Mexico, according to its filing. Cemex reported that the peso had caused an EBITDA hit of $65 million, and volumes in Mexico dropped due to a rush to complete government infrastructure projects last year before presidential elections. On Monday, the firm reiterated its forecast that it expects to reach an EBITDA of over $3 billion for the full year. Cemex's biggest market in the first quarter was the United States, followed by Europe and the Middle East. Mexico came third. The total sales fell 7%, to $3.65 Billion, which is also in line the LSEG estimate. Higher prices did not fully offset lower volume. Cemex reported that the volume of cement and ready-mixes increased slightly, but aggregates fell 4%. Cemex USA's Jaime Muguiro, who replaced Fernando Gonzalez as Cemex USA's CEO at the start of this month after he retired from his long-standing position as Cemex USA's CEO, has announced these results. In recent years, the firm has shifted their focus to the U.S. and sold off non-core business, including in Guatemala. The Philippines, Dominican Republic, and the Philippines. Bloomberg News reported in February that Cemex had been gauging interest to sell its Colombian unit. Cemex stated on Monday that it is still interested in small to mid-size acquisitions within the United States. Cemex’s net profit almost tripled in the third quarter to $734 millions, thanks to the Dominican Republic deal. Cemex reported that $618 million in its net profit for the quarter was from discontinued operations. (Reporting and editing by Kylie Madry, Lincoln Feast).
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Investors are worried that Big Oil may reduce its share buybacks if crude prices fall
Investors will pay attention to how the falling oil price has increased the risk of dividends and share purchases for the remainder of 2025. Big Oil's efforts to win over Wall Street have been based on returning cash to investors via dividends and stock repurchases. U.S. president Donald Trump's announcements of global tariffs have caused fears of a weaker oil market and a possible recession, leading forecasters to reduce their oil price expectations. If prices were lower, Big Oil would have less money to give to its shareholders. In a research note, Paul Cheng, a Scotiabank analyst, wrote: "We believe the quarterly results will get overshadowed given the turmoil on the commodity markets." Analysts said that investors will be looking for companies that can describe their plans to deal with the sustained decline in oil prices. This could include reducing share repurchases or cutting back on spending. Exxon, and Chevron are the two biggest oil producers in the United States. Both companies will report their earnings on Friday, and they're expected to show a profit increase from the previous quarter. According to LSEG, analysts expect Exxon to earn $1.73 per share and Chevron $2.18. Brent crude oil prices, the global benchmark, averaged $74,98 per barrel in the quarter January-March. This was an increase of 1.3% over the previous quarter. U.S. natural gas prices rose 30%. After Trump announced tariffs against trading partners, oil prices started to plummet on April 2. Analysts have been modeling scenarios in which oil prices will remain around $60 this year, or even fall into the $50s. Brent oil prices averaged $66.79 per barrel so far in April. The U.S. Energy Information Administration cut its price forecast from $74.22 a barrel on average to $67.87 per barrel in 2025. The EIA expects a price average of $61.48 per barrel in 2026. This is down from the previous $68.47. Analysts from four companies have said that Chevron could reduce its buybacks in the event of continued low oil prices. Analysts from four firms said that the second-largest U.S. energy company had previously set annual share repurchases at between $10 billion to $20 billion. The company has announced that it will be cutting costs by up to $3 billion and firing up to 8,000 workers. Analysts said that BP in the UK may also be forced to reduce its share buybacks, increasing pressure on already-underperforming shares. RBC Capital Markets estimates that Chevron needs a Brent price per barrel of $95 to cover dividends, buybacks, and other costs. Exxon requires $88. Prices in the mid-$50s can cover dividends for both companies. Bank of America Global Research analysts forecast that Chevron would repurchase about $11 billion worth of shares in this year. This is at the lower end of their guidance. Exxon will buy back around $13.5 billion below its $20 billion guidance. At least three analysts agreed that Exxon was in a better position to continue dividends and share purchases, citing the surplus cash on its balance sheet and the company's efforts to reduce the cost of producing oil and natural gas. Exxon said that it would repurchase shares worth $20 billion annually until 2026. Last year, the company paid out $16.7 billion as dividends. Exxon-Chevron has not responded to any requests for comments. Jason Gabelman is an analyst with TD Cowen. In a note dated April 11, he wrote that it was unlikely the companies would announce a reduction in capital expenditures in the near future, but this could happen in future quarters. He wrote that spending on green energy projects and shale assets would be the most suitable for cutting. Shale production is more flexible and can be stopped and restarted quickly, while energy conversion efforts are still not material to businesses. Chevron will spend 65% of its 2025 capex on these two segments, while Exxon will spend less than 50%. Sheila Dang, Houston; David Gregorio, editing.
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Poland and US firms sign contract for design of nuclear power plant
After an initial contract expired at the end March, the U.S. companies Westinghouse Electric (now Bechtel) and Polskie Elektrownie Jadrowe(PEJ) signed a new agreement on Monday to continue the design of the first nuclear power station in Poland. Poland wants to reduce its coal reliance and has chosen Westinghouse to build a plant along the Baltic Sea Coast in 2022. Warsaw estimates that the project will cost 192 billion Zloty (about $51 billion). "I think it's the beginning of a long-term cooperation between the United States, Poland and other nations in Europe that will include building future reactors here in Poland as well as with other nations throughout Europe," U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright said at the signing ceremony. Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, said that he had discussed with Wright the future of small reactors as well as cooperation in liquefied gas (LNG). Poland depends on U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to diversify its supply of gas. PEJ must still negotiate an Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC), contract with the builder. However, this requires European Commission approval of public aid worth $60 billion zloty (16 billion dollars) that the project will benefit from. Poland hopes to receive EU approval for the project before the end of this year, so that it can start construction on the first unit in 2028, and finish it in 2036 - four years later than originally planned. The plant is expected to be fully operational in 2040. ($1 = 3.7670 zlotys) (Reporting by Marek Strzelecki, Anna Koper; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
GRAPHIC-Apple approaches $4 trillion valuation as financiers bet on AI momentum
Apple is closing in on a. historical $4 trillion stock market appraisal, powered by. financiers cheering development in the company's longawaited AI. improvements to renew slow iPhone sales.
The company has actually pulled ahead of Nvidia and. Microsoft in the race to the huge milestone,. thanks to an about 16% jump in shares considering that early November that. has actually included about $500 billion to its market capitalization.
The latest rally in Apple shares shows investor. enthusiasm for expert system and an expectation that. it will result in a supercycle of iPhone upgrades, stated Tom. Specialty, an expert at Maxim Group, who has a hold ranking.
Valued at about $3.85 trillion as of the last close, Apple. overshadows the combined worth of Germany and Switzerland's. main stock markets.
The Silicon Valley firm, driven by the so-called iPhone. supercycles, was the very first U.S. business to hit previous. trillion-dollar turning points.
Recently, the company has actually attracted criticism for. being sluggish to draw up its expert system strategy,. while Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta Platforms have pulled. ahead to control the emerging technology.
Shares of Nvidia, the greatest AI recipient, have surged. more than 800% over the previous two years, compared to the near. doubling in shares of Apple throughout the same duration.
Apple earlier in December started incorporating OpenAI's ChatGPT. into its gadgets after revealing plans in June to integrate. generative AI technology across its app suite. The company expects total profits to increase low- to. mid-single digits throughout its financial very first quarter - a modest. growth forecast for the holiday shopping season - stimulating. questions about the momentum for the iPhone 16 series.
Nevertheless, LSEG information revealed experts anticipate earnings from. iPhones to rebound in 2025.
Although near-term iPhone demand is still muted ... it is a. function of limited Apple Intelligence features and geographical. schedule, and as both widen, it will assist to drive an. improvement in iPhone demand, Morgan Stanley expert Erik. Woodring said in a note, repeating Apple as the brokerage's. top choice heading into 2025.
The recent rise in shares has pushed Apple's. price-to-earnings ratio to a near three-year high of 33.5,. compared to 31.3 for Microsoft and 31.7 for Nvidia, according to. LSEG data.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has actually offered shares. of Apple - its leading holding - this year, as the corporation. broadly pulled away from equities on issues over extended. assessments.
I presume the stock in 3 years will not look as. pricey as it does today, stated Eric Clark, portfolio supervisor. of the Reasonable Dynamic Brands Fund, which holds Apple shares.
Apple faces the danger of vindictive tariffs if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump delivers on his guarantee to slap. tariffs of a minimum of 10% on products coming from China.
Our company believe it's most likely Apple gets exclusions on products. like iPhone, Mac and iPad, comparable to the preliminary of China. tariffs in 2018, Woodring stated.
Apple's shares tumbled last Wednesday amidst a Wall Street. selloff after the Federal Reserve forecast a slower pace of rate. cuts next year but financiers anticipate the broad trend of monetary. relieving to support stock exchange next year.
Technology has actually been concerned by investors as a new form of. a defensive sector since of their incomes development, said Sam. Stovall, primary financial investment strategist at CFRA Research study.
The Fed's action could end up having a higher influence on. a few of the other cyclical areas such as customer discretionary. and financials and less so on technology.
Apple's technique to $4 trillion market cap is a testament. to its enduring supremacy in the tech sector. This milestone. enhances Apple's position as a market leader and innovator,. said Adam Sarhan, ceo of 50 Park. Investments.
(source: Reuters)