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US refiners scale back unrefined consumption as fuel stocks swell: Kemp

U.S. petroleum refiners have trimmed crude processing rates in reaction to an increase in fuel inventories and a decline in refining margins because the start of the second quarter of 2024.

Refiners' gross inputs of crude and incomplete oils slowed to 16.6 million barrels daily (b/d) over the 7 days ending on Aug. 2, according to data from the U.S. Energy Details Administration.

Gross inputs were the slowest for the time of year given that the initially wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and before that 2014.

Refiners made use of simply 90.5% of their operable capacity, below 93.6% at the exact same time last year and the most affordable rate because the pandemic's first wave.

Top refiners Marathon, Valero and Phillips 66 have all revealed decreases in processing rates during recent incomes calls with investors.

MINI BOOM

Processing rates have slowed sharply because the very first few months of the year, when refiners accelerated them to the greatest for practically 5 years.

Gross inputs climbed to an average of 19.2 million b/d in May, which was the greatest for the time of year given that 2019.

Refiners were reacting to a persistent depletion of gas, extract fuel oil and jet fuel stocks and a. increase in gross refining margins.

The diminished in stocks was partially driven by the unexpected. shutdown of BP's refinery at Whiting in Indiana in February and. March following a site-wide electrical energy failure.

Chartbook: U.S. refining margins and crude processing

Combined stocks of the big three fuels had fallen 18 million. barrels (-4% or -0.76 standard variances) listed below the prior. ten-year seasonal average by March.

In response, gross refining margins for producing two. barrels of fuel and one barrel of distillate fuel oil from. 3 barrels of U.S. crude climbed to more than $31.

Gross margins or crack spreads remained in the 75th percentile. for all months since 2010, after adjusting for inflation.

RETREAT

Given that April, however, fuel inventories have actually been climbing up. and spreads narrowing in action to the increased quantity of. refining activity.

By July, combined fuel stocks were simply 7 million barrels. ( -2% or -0.26 basic variances) listed below the ten-year average.

Stocks have actually continued trending up. Stocks of both. gas and extract fuel oil had climbed to the greatest for. 3 years in the very first week of August.

Unsurprisingly, gross refining margins have pulled back to. around $24 per barrel, precisely in line with the long-term. inflation-adjusted average.

Refiners have been required to call down processing rates to. avert any additional build-up of inventories and erosion in. margins.

SOFTER PRICES

The unusual slowdown in unrefined intake since the start of. July, a time when it would usually be increasing to satisfy peak. summertime driving demand, has contributed to the softness in crude. rates and spreads over the very same period.

U.S. unrefined futures costs for deliveries in September have. pulled back from nearly $83 per barrel near the start of July to a. low of simply $73 in early August before recuperating to just under. $ 80.

Some of this has been driven by broader issues about the. outlook for the worldwide economy, which have hit multiple. products and property classes.

But the sudden slowdown in refinery crude usage at a. season when it is usually greatest has been an. additional headwind for oil costs.

It likewise underscores the threats if OPEC+ profits with its. formerly revealed however provisionary strategy to increase crude. production from the start of October.

Associated columns:. - U.S. refining margins drop as fuel stocks climb

(source: Reuters)