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More than 20% of international oil refining capacity at risk, analysis finds

More than a fifth of international oil refining capability is at threat of closure, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie discovered in analysis released on Thursday, as fuel margins damage and the pressure to decrease carbon emissions mounts.

Of 465 refining possessions evaluated, the consultancy ranked about 21% of 2023 global refining capability at some danger of closure.

Europe and China house the best number of high-risk sites, putting about 3.9 million barrels each day (bpd) of refining capability in jeopardy, Wood Mac found, based upon its estimate of net money margins, expense of carbon emissions, ownership, environmental financial investment and tactical worth of refineries.

There are 11 European websites that account for 45% of all high-risk plants, the report discovered.

About 30 European refineries have currently shut down because 2009, information from industry body Concawe shows, with almost 90 still in operation.

This wave of closures have actually been brought on by competition from newer and more complicated plants in the Middle East and Asia in addition to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Gas margins are expected to weaken by the end of this decade as demand decreases and sanctions on Russia ease while predicted carbon taxes ought to likewise begin to bite, the Wood Mac analysis showed.

Operating costs could go up so much that closure may be the just option, stated Wood Mac senior oils and chemicals expert Emma Fox.

On the other hand, Nigeria's substantial Dangote oil refinery could bring to an end decades-long fuel trade from Europe to Africa worth $17 billion a year, heaping pressure on European refineries currently at risk of closure from heightened competition.

The Dangote refinery, with capacity of approximately 650,000 bpd, began production in January but was not included in Wood Mac's. analysis.

The 7 high-risk websites in China are small-scale. independent refineries. In some cases called 'teapots', these. refineries go through more stringent government guidelines. and take on bigger integrated websites that are normally. state-owned and more complex.

(source: Reuters)