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Oil prices drop sharply after US-Iran deescalation

The oil prices dropped by more than 4% Monday following a?U.S. Donald Trump stated that Iran was "seriously speaking" with Washington. This signaled a 'de-escalation' of tensions between Washington and an OPEC country. A stronger dollar also weighed down on oil prices.

Brent crude futures fell $3.34 or 4.8% to $65.98 per barrel at 1113 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell $3.37 or 5.2% to $61.84 per a barrel.

Brent and WTI both fell in February after their largest monthly gain since 2022. This was due to the waning of fears that a military attack on Iran would be launched after Trump's comments at the weekend. Brent rose 16% while WTI grew 13% in January.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that the lack of a "further escalation" of tensions, along with the falling disruptions of supply in the U.S.A. and Kazakhstan, had weighed on oil prices.

Trump said that Iran is "seriously speaking" on Saturday, hours after Iran's top security official Ali Larijani announced that negotiations were in progress.

Trump repeatedly warned Iran of intervention if they refused to agree to a nuclear deal or continued killing protesters. Priyanka Sackdeva, Phillip Nova analyst, says that the 'persistent threats' have supported oil prices all of January.

According to PVM analyst Tamas Varga, the weakness in oil today is a combination of the disappearance in the geopolitical premium, as the U.S. shows tentative willingness to talk, and an increase in the dollar, due to the nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chairman.

Analysts partially attribute the slump to the stronger U.S. Dollar.

Sachdeva stated that the recent price drop was also a result of the renewed strength of U.S. Dollar, which makes dollar-denominated crude oil more expensive to non-U.S. customers, further affecting prices.

Analysts said that concerns about the global oil supply being greater than demand has also come back to mind following the de-escalation of tensions in Middle East.

OPEC+ decided to maintain its oil production for March at the same level as it was in November. In November, the grouping frozen planned increases from January to March 2026 due to seasonal lower consumption.

Capital Economics wrote in a January 30 note that "Geopolitical Risks mask a fundamentally 'bearish' oil market."

The historical example of the 12-day war between Israel and Iran last year, and a well supplied oil market will still have a bearing on Brent crude prices until end-2026." (Reporting from Enes Tunagur in London, with additional reporting from Katya Golubkova and Sudarshan Varadhan in Singapore and Tokyo; editing by Clarence Fernandez & Jan Harvey).

(source: Reuters)