Latest News
-
Learn to love inflation with MORNING BID AMERICAS
What's important in U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan, Editor at Large, Finance and Markets The markets are being hit by several factors: war, inflation rate increases, tech jitters, and interest rate rises. While Donald Trump might "love inflation", markets and the wider public disagree. Trump may have erred and was likely nodding to the fact that May's CPI reading for core was slightly lower than expected. Investors trying to find some optimism in the face of headline inflation as high as 4,2% are having a tougher time than Trump. They will also have to take into account today's update on May producer prices. Below, I'll go into more detail. Check out my column about what low-hanging fruits the EU could pick in order to bring about a global euro. Listen to the latest Morning Bid podcast. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. LEARNING TO LOVE INFLATION The oil prices fell on Friday, after a new round of military exchanges overnight between the U.S.A. and Iran, which extended their "tit-fortat" strikes for a second consecutive day. The broader tech and chip sectors are struggling to gain traction as the massive SpaceX IPO is about to be released. The major U.S. indexes closed lower on Wednesday, as chipmakers continued their recent declines. The SOX chip index fell back by over 3%. Wall Street futures rose?before Thursday's bell, but. Oracle's overnight trading plunged by?9% after its earnings report on Wednesday. This comes just a week after Broadcom also experienced a post-earnings slump that set nerves jangling. Oracle's tensions were centered around its growing debt as it borrowed more to build out its AI infrastructure. The European Central Bank will announce its long-awaited interest rate hike on Thursday. This is likely to add to the anxiety about borrowing costs. The Iran war has a negative impact on the ECB's inflation forecasts. The markets are braced to see two more ECB actions later this year. The markets will focus on a possible Bank of Japan rate hike and a Federal Reserve meeting that is likely to be hawkish next week. The '10-year Treasury Debt Auction on Wednesday was a good one, with a decent amount of demand. Kevin Warsh's first meeting will be a difficult one. Chart of the Day The FIFA World Cup, co-hosted this year by the United States of America, Canada and Mexico, begins on Thursday amid great excitement and controversy about everything from U.S. Visas to sky-high tickets prices. Vacation rental bookings are a good indicator of the economic impact of hosting the World Cup. Watch today's events Weekly?jobless claim (8:30 am EDT), U.S. PPI for May (8:30 am EDT). * U.S. 30 year bond auction (1 pm?EDT). * ECB interest rate decision (8:15 a.m. EDT) Want to receive "Morning bid" in your email every morning? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and will always maintain its integrity, independence and neutrality.
-
Copper falls to a three-week low due to fund sales and concerns about the Middle East
The copper price fell to its lowest level in three weeks as the U.S. and Iran continued their attacks. Funds liquidated positions on concerns about rising interest rates, weaker economic growth worldwide, and softer metals demands. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.8% to $13,407 per metric tonne by 0925 GMT. It had earlier reached $13,378, which was its lowest since May 20. On Thursday, the U.S. traded air strikes with Iran for a second day in a row, undermining an already fragile ceasefire. Copper's decline is driven more by macro-headwinds than fundamentals. "Escalating tensions are fueling inflation fears and rate increase expectations," said EwaManthey, commodities analyst at ING. Copper is likely to be under pressure in the near future unless energy prices stabilise or expectations of rate changes are lowered. LME copper is down about 6% from?May 13 when it reached its highest level in 3 1/2 months. This was due to a 'pile-up of funds into the market because of'supply issues and bullish signals. Traders said that part of the recent weakness was due to funds liquidating their long positions. The Yangshan Copper Premium fell by 19% in the last 2-1/2 weeks, highlighting the lacklustre demand for metals in China's top consumer. This reflects the demand for imported copper into China and has risen to $59 per?ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 1.3%, to 103.160 yuan (15,223) per ton. It had previously reached its lowest level since May 8. The losses in copper have been cushioned by the speculation that U.S. tariffs could be imposed on imported?refined? copper. This has led to a premium for U.S. metal, and a flow of material into the U.S. resulting in supply shortages elsewhere. Stocks available in warehouses registered with the LME According to LME data, the number of tons has fallen by 37% in two months to 226,975 tonnes. LME aluminium increased 0.3% to $3.475 per ton, as a result of continued concerns about a?prolonged conflict that could create shortages because?the Gulf represents about 9%?of global melting capacity. Nickel fell 0.3% to $17.620, while tin slipped 0.2% to $51,885.
-
Singapore's oil products inventories fall to a near 13-year low
Official data on Thursday showed that oil product inventories in Asia's main trading hub Singapore fell to their lowest level?in almost 13 years. This was due to a'sharp' decline in residual fuel stocks as the Middle East conflict continued. Enterprise Singapore's data shows that the combined onshore oil products stocks fell to 34.41 millions barrels during the week ending June 10. This is the lowest level since July 2013. The oil inventories at global storage hubs are shrinking, as Middle Eastern shipments continue to be curtailed by the U.S. - Iran?war. In the week ending June 10, inventories of residual fuel, the oil product that is stored in Singapore's storage tanks and typically used to fuel ships or refineries, totaled 14.84 million barils. This was the lowest level in nearly eight years. The net imports of heavy distilates dropped by 36.3% from week to week, but volumes from the Middle East did not increase. Sparta Commodities analysts stated that recent flows were?stabilised' by U.S. exports, and the repositioning of vessels. However, these are only temporary support. They added that "Inventories are being depleted, key 'hubs are approaching operational minimums and geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved." The fuel oil industry expects that residual fuel stocks will rebound as a result of the increased supply from the West. While middle distillate stock levels continued to fall, they are now at a three-month-low, while net exports for both jet fuel and diesel increased week-on-week. Singapore's diesel/gasoil, jet fuel/kerosene and kerosene stock levels were around 6.9 million barrels. This is down from 7.3 millions barrels one week ago. Diesel/gasoil exports increased by nearly five-fold compared to a week ago, while total imports fell 42%. Imports were dominated by cargoes from India and South Korea. Sources from the region said that more Indian barrels will be arriving in Singapore this June. The narrowing of the east-west spread makes it more profitable for sellers who send their cargoes into Asia rather than west?of Suez. Exports increased by 56% in volume week-on-week. Volumes to regional destinations like?the Philippines and Vietnam, Australia, and Malaysia remained robust. Jet fuel exports increased by nearly 8%. However, imports from South Korea, Malaysia and other countries also appeared. The light distillate stock, which includes naphtha and gasoline, has rebounded at a two-week peak of?12.66 millions barrels. The main sources of gasoline imports were Saudi Arabia and India. Exports were mainly to Australia, Indonesia, and Malaysia, but there were also cargo outflows from Mexico.
-
Sources say that Adani, Vedanta and Reliance are all part of India's effort to reduce China's dependence on rare earths.
According to two sources familiar with the matter, Indian industrial 'groups Reliance Vedanta, and Adani have shown an interest in developing a facility to 'process' Andhra Pradesh State’s significant reserves. One of the sources said that New Delhi is looking to reduce India's dependency on China for rare Earths. The three companies have expressed an interest in setting up rare-earth facilities in the south state. Sources declined to identify themselves as they weren't authorised to talk to the media. According to a draft document, Andhra Pradesh has 211 millions metric tons in beach sand minerals, including rare Earths, spread across 16 coastal deposits. According to the Geological Survey of India, India's rare earth ore reserves total 482,6 million tons. RARE EARTH EMBITIONS New Delhi is stepping up its efforts to build a domestic rare earth mining and processing capacity and to manufacture magnets, while Andhra Pradesh wants to attract 500 billion rupees (5.2 billion dollars) in rare Earth and titanium investment over the next decade. Plans were outlined in a draft document by the government. Emails seeking comment from the Andhra Pradesh Government, Vedanta Ltd, Adani Enterprises Ltd, Vedance Industries Ltd, and Reliance Industries Ltd were not answered. Andhra Pradesh is one of four states that were identified in the February federal budget as being a candidate for development of "corridors", which would cover mining, processing, and magnet production. This initiative was launched after New Delhi approved in November a programme worth 73 billion rupees to support the manufacturing of rare earth magnets. Permanent magnets are used in electric vehicle motors and other applications that require rare?earth. India has a large amount of rare earth minerals, but it does not have the industrial scale facilities to process them into high purity. CAPITAL INCENTIVES AND OTHER MEASURES Andhra Pradesh will?issue tenders to rare earth facilities once it receives cabinet approval of its 'rare earth corridor policy. This is expected in a month. Sources said that the state plans to offer capital incentives and extra benefits for projects with an investment of at least 10 billion rupees. Andhra Pradesh has been courting large investments. It has attracted companies such as Google and ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel and hopes to secure $1 trillion by 2029. (Reporting and editing by Mayank Bhadwaj, David Holmes and Sarita Chaganti)
-
Gold recovers from a six-month low, but fears of rate hikes cap gains
Investors covered their short positions on Thursday and gold prices rose, rebounding from the?a six-month low. However, concerns about higher inflation rates in the U.S. and rising interest rates have limited gains. Gold spot rose 0.6%, to $4.097.01 an ounce at 836 GMT. It had fallen earlier in the session to its lowest level since November 21, U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were down 0.4% to $4,118. Ross Norman, an independent analyst, said that gold is "clearly" oversold right now. It remains to be determined whether or not this is a real recovery of the metal as such or merely short positions taking profits. The U.S. has traded blows with?Iran for the second day in a row. President Donald Trump threatened to launch more strikes if Tehran did not agree immediately to a?peace deal. Since the U.S. and Israel war against?Iran began in late February, spot gold prices have dropped by more than 22 percent. This was followed up by an increase in oil price. A rise in crude oil prices may accelerate inflation, and increase interest rates for longer. Gold is often viewed as an inflation hedge, but higher interest rates can weigh down the metal. Data released on Wednesday revealed that U.S. consumer prices increased at their fastest rate in three years during the month of May, thanks to the surge in energy-related product prices. A majority of economists polled in a recent survey expect interest rates to remain unchanged in this year. According to CME Group’s FedWatch? tool, traders currently price a 67% probability of an increase in U.S. interest rates in December. Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank, said that the market is now certain that the Fed will raise interest rates by the end of this year. If next week's Fed meeting doesn't signal an increase in interest rates, gold prices could start to recover. Investors are now awaiting the May producer price index due at 1230 GMT in order to gauge the Fed’s monetary policy. Spot silver increased 1.3%, to $64.49 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.8%, to $1678.08. Palladium rose 3%, to $1249.58.
-
Saudi crude oil supply to China remains at record low
Saudi Arabian crude oil sales to China will likely remain at record lows this month as the high 'prices' in the wake of the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran continue to impact demand. Market participants closely monitor the allocations as a measure of Chinese demand. They indicate that refiners are reluctant to import barrels at high prices after run cuts, and because they have exhausted their domestic stocks. Saudi Aramco will ship 12 million barrels to China customers for July loading. This is about 387.096 barrels a day. Sources'requested anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak with the media. According to?sources, Sinopec is the largest refiner in the world by processing capacity. It has not bought any Saudi crude since the second month. Rongsheng Petrochemical, another major refiner was also buying at much lower levels than before the war. Aramco's July 'official selling prices' to Asia were cut by $6 per barrel compared to the previous month. However, they still remained much higher than pre-war levels. Refiners have cut back on runs in China due to high crude prices and low fuel demand, which led to refining losses. This resulted in the lowest oil imports for a decade in May. Aramco, Sinopec and Rongsheng didn't immediately respond to comments. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing in Singapore, Thomas Derpinghaus and Siyi Liu)
-
Fuel stations run out of fuel in Crimea after a new night of Ukrainian drone attacks
Witnesses reported that fuel stations in the Russian-held Crimean Peninsula?were?out of petrol on Thursday as the escalating Ukrainian campaign to cut off supply lines into the peninsula?. A? A witness in Sevastopol said that most petrol stations in the city were out of fuel. Supplies are struggling to keep up even with the recent rationing. Another said that in Yevpatoriya's resort town, there was a queue of people waiting outside the only petrol station. Ukraine has intensified drone strikes against supply lines for the peninsula that Russia captured from Kyiv in 2014. Local authorities have implemented fuel rationing, and some food is also in short supply. The Russian-backed governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhaev, said on Wednesday that the plans to distribute rationed fuel?had been pushed back because trucks were unable to deliver the fuel into Sevastopol, due recent Ukrainian strikes along supply routes. Fuel is mainly delivered by rail and road to Crimea via the Russian territories in the north that Moscow took over in 2022. Drone attacks have disrupted these routes more and more. Fuel was previously delivered to Crimea via barge from an oil terminal located in the city Feodosia. However, supplies have been cut since Ukraine attacked the terminal in April. The governor of Sevastopol who was installed by Moscow said that Ukrainian drones caused a light amount of damage over night, and 33 were downed. The Russian-backed Governor of the Moscow-held Kherson region which borders Crimea on the north said that Ukraine had targeted bridges and caused some damage. Authorities reported that Kyiv struck southern Russia over night, causing damage, including an 'incident at the Afipsky Oil Refinery, which has since been put out. The Adygea governor also reported damage to civil infrastructure in the area. Reporting by Felix Light in Sevastopol, Yevpatoriya; Editing by Alex Richardson
-
South Korea anticipates favorable outcome following Lee's EU Steel Request
A senior South Korean adviser to the president said that the European Union would give maximum consideration to South Korea’s request for favorable?treatment of their?steelmakers, under the new import regime. The request was made by the South Korean president Lee Jae Myung during a Wednesday meeting in Brussels with Antonio Costa, President of the European Council and Ursula von der Leyen, President of European Commission. Kim Yong Beom, a presidential policy advisor, told a press briefing that Lee had asked the EU to "consider" South Korea's status as a strategic?partner and a?partner in a free trade agreement. Kim said that the EU had stated it would?consider our request as far as possible", adding South Korea was expecting a better outcome than other countries. Kim stated that South Korea made "significant progress" during the talks between its minister of trade and the EU's trade commissioner regarding steel quota volume. The European Parliament approved plans in May to reduce tariff-free imports of steel by almost half, from levels in 2024 to 18.3 millions metric tons per year. Tariffs of 50% will be applied to volumes over that level. South Korea's largest steel export market is the EU. Kim said that South Korea exported 3.24 million tonnes of steel to the EU last year, out of a total of 28.25 millions tons. Kim reported that Lee raised other economic issues, such as cooperation in semiconductors, defence and artificial intelligence, with EU leaders. Heejin Lee and Joyce Lee, Sonali Paul and Ed Davies edited the report.
Raychaudhuri: Mainland China capital boom fuels Hong Kong investment boom
Hong Kong's gateway to China is strengthened by the influx of mainland Chinese investors. This investment boosts market liquidity and depth, while also strengthening its position. This capital flow could be slowed by short-term headwinds, but the market's diversification and innovation will likely propel it over time.
Stock Connect, launched in November 2014 by the Hong Kong Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges, allowed mainland Chinese investors trade certain stocks listed in Hong Kong. This is known as "Southbound Stock Connect", while also facilitating flow in the other direction. Between 2017 and 2023, the Connect programme expanded to include interest rate swaps, bonds and ETFs.
The Southbound route has seen a 32% annual compound growth rate since 2015, which was the first year the programme was fully operational. According to Hong Kong Exchange data, Southbound's average daily turnover has grown from 1.6% in 2015. to 18% by 2024.
What is the EXUBERANCE all about?
Since the program began, Onshore investors consistently have bought more than they sold through Southbound. This has resulted in net inflows each year. The flows were good but volatile until 2023. After that, they exploded. In 2024 net inflows were more than twice as high, and this figure was nearly equaled within the first six month of 2025.
What is the reason for this interest in Hong Kong listed stocks? Geographic diversification is a major factor, since mainland Chinese investors are limited in their options for overseas assets.
Investors can also look to gain exposure to key sectors, such as insurance or technology. Onshore indices do not include, for example, the leading Chinese internet platforms Tencent, Alibaba, or AIA, leader in the insurance industry, and global bank HSBC.
Many stocks popular with mainland investors are listed in both Hong Kong and onshore, which again raises the question as to why capital is flowing into Hong Kong. It could be a simple matter of price.
These dual-listed shares are valued at much lower prices in Hong Kong than they are in Shanghai or Shenzhen. Prior to the Stock Connect programme, the Hang Seng AH Premium Index tracked the average premium for onshore "A shares". This was 3.2%.
The value of the shares soared to 34.1% as soon after. This was due to an influx of international capital into mainland Chinese stocks via Northbound Connect. Although it has decreased recently, the premium is still high.
HONG KONG IMPACT
Hong Kong's equity market has become more liquid and deeper due to the influx of capital. This makes it attractive for both local companies looking for new listings, and onshore Chinese firms seeking additional listings.
Hong Kong was the largest IPO market in the world in the first half 2025 with a total of $14 billion, easily surpassing Nasdaq which came in second with just under $9 billion.
The Stock Connect program has, at the same time, strengthened Hong Kong’s position as a renminbi offshore hub, as HKE argued. It has also driven robust cross border regulatory cooperation, including regular meetings and the exchange of ideas.
RAPID ROTATION
Hong Kong's markets could experience increased volatility as a result of the onshore money rush, particularly given the fact that mainland Chinese investors have historically traded in a way that involves rapid switching from one theme or sector to another.
Onshore investors, for example, flocked towards the internet platforms Alibaba, Tencent and the technology giant Xiaomi throughout 2024 and 2025 only to see significant volumes sold this past May/June.
Some common preferences among Chinese onshore investors, like the desire for high dividend yields could also begin to influence the relative performance in Hong Kong. CNOOC and China Construction Bank, which are both low-growth companies with high dividends, have been Southbound favorites this year. This is based on the monthly "Top 10 list".
HEADWINDS FOR SHORT-TERM
What could possibly derail the current exuberance? One headwind could be a possible weakening of renminbi, which would make HKD stocks more expensive to mainlanders.
Chinese investors may also be discouraged from diversifying their portfolios overseas if mainland markets perform better. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has risen 23.8% in 2025, far exceeding the Shanghai Composite index's 5.5% increase. The direction of flows could be reversed if return prospects changed.
The geopolitical tensions between the United States and China are also a persistent problem. Hong Kong allows money to move in and out without many restrictions. This exposes the city to risks from political conflicts. Chinese investors may be more likely to retain their capital if a negative political outcome occurs.
Most of these headwinds will likely be short-term, but the direction of travel over the long term is still clear.
The Mainland Chinese savings pool is a huge reservoir of capital that has largely remained untapped. PBOC reported that the total deposits at June 2025 would be RMB 320 trillion (US$ 44 trillion).
In March 2025, the total amount of overseas portfolio investments was only $1.58 trillion. This is less than 4% compared to domestic household deposits.
It is likely that the capital rush into Hong Kong's markets will only get started as mainland Chinese investors continue to diversify.
You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI, can help you keep up. Follow ROI and X on LinkedIn.
(source: Reuters)