Latest News

Raychaudhuri: Mainland China capital boom fuels Hong Kong investment boom

Raychaudhuri: Mainland China capital boom fuels Hong Kong investment boom

Hong Kong's gateway to China is strengthened by the influx of mainland Chinese investors. This investment boosts market liquidity and depth, while also strengthening its position. This capital flow could be slowed by short-term headwinds, but the market's diversification and innovation will likely propel it over time.

Stock Connect, launched in November 2014 by the Hong Kong Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges, allowed mainland Chinese investors trade certain stocks listed in Hong Kong. This is known as "Southbound Stock Connect", while also facilitating flow in the other direction. Between 2017 and 2023, the Connect programme expanded to include interest rate swaps, bonds and ETFs.

The Southbound route has seen a 32% annual compound growth rate since 2015, which was the first year the programme was fully operational. According to Hong Kong Exchange data, Southbound's average daily turnover has grown from 1.6% in 2015. to 18% by 2024.

What is the EXUBERANCE all about?

Since the program began, Onshore investors consistently have bought more than they sold through Southbound. This has resulted in net inflows each year. The flows were good but volatile until 2023. After that, they exploded. In 2024 net inflows were more than twice as high, and this figure was nearly equaled within the first six month of 2025.

What is the reason for this interest in Hong Kong listed stocks? Geographic diversification is a major factor, since mainland Chinese investors are limited in their options for overseas assets.

Investors can also look to gain exposure to key sectors, such as insurance or technology. Onshore indices do not include, for example, the leading Chinese internet platforms Tencent, Alibaba, or AIA, leader in the insurance industry, and global bank HSBC.

Many stocks popular with mainland investors are listed in both Hong Kong and onshore, which again raises the question as to why capital is flowing into Hong Kong. It could be a simple matter of price.

These dual-listed shares are valued at much lower prices in Hong Kong than they are in Shanghai or Shenzhen. Prior to the Stock Connect programme, the Hang Seng AH Premium Index tracked the average premium for onshore "A shares". This was 3.2%.

The value of the shares soared to 34.1% as soon after. This was due to an influx of international capital into mainland Chinese stocks via Northbound Connect. Although it has decreased recently, the premium is still high.

HONG KONG IMPACT

Hong Kong's equity market has become more liquid and deeper due to the influx of capital. This makes it attractive for both local companies looking for new listings, and onshore Chinese firms seeking additional listings.

Hong Kong was the largest IPO market in the world in the first half 2025 with a total of $14 billion, easily surpassing Nasdaq which came in second with just under $9 billion.

The Stock Connect program has, at the same time, strengthened Hong Kong’s position as a renminbi offshore hub, as HKE argued. It has also driven robust cross border regulatory cooperation, including regular meetings and the exchange of ideas.

RAPID ROTATION

Hong Kong's markets could experience increased volatility as a result of the onshore money rush, particularly given the fact that mainland Chinese investors have historically traded in a way that involves rapid switching from one theme or sector to another.

Onshore investors, for example, flocked towards the internet platforms Alibaba, Tencent and the technology giant Xiaomi throughout 2024 and 2025 only to see significant volumes sold this past May/June.

Some common preferences among Chinese onshore investors, like the desire for high dividend yields could also begin to influence the relative performance in Hong Kong. CNOOC and China Construction Bank, which are both low-growth companies with high dividends, have been Southbound favorites this year. This is based on the monthly "Top 10 list".

HEADWINDS FOR SHORT-TERM

What could possibly derail the current exuberance? One headwind could be a possible weakening of renminbi, which would make HKD stocks more expensive to mainlanders.

Chinese investors may also be discouraged from diversifying their portfolios overseas if mainland markets perform better. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has risen 23.8% in 2025, far exceeding the Shanghai Composite index's 5.5% increase. The direction of flows could be reversed if return prospects changed.

The geopolitical tensions between the United States and China are also a persistent problem. Hong Kong allows money to move in and out without many restrictions. This exposes the city to risks from political conflicts. Chinese investors may be more likely to retain their capital if a negative political outcome occurs.

Most of these headwinds will likely be short-term, but the direction of travel over the long term is still clear.

The Mainland Chinese savings pool is a huge reservoir of capital that has largely remained untapped. PBOC reported that the total deposits at June 2025 would be RMB 320 trillion (US$ 44 trillion).

In March 2025, the total amount of overseas portfolio investments was only $1.58 trillion. This is less than 4% compared to domestic household deposits.

It is likely that the capital rush into Hong Kong's markets will only get started as mainland Chinese investors continue to diversify.

You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI, can help you keep up. Follow ROI and X on LinkedIn.

(source: Reuters)