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Gold on the verge of ending a four-month losing streak
Investors weighed Middle East developments and the impact they have on U.S. interest rate expectations. As of 0253 GMT the spot gold price fell by 0.6%, to $4,076.53 an ounce. However, it was on track for a 0.6% weekly increase. Prices rose by about 1.7% in the last month. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 0.4% to $4 074.20. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that gold was showing a slight negative bias due to profit-taking, and a moderate rise in the U.S. Dollar. This follows the gains made by the metal yesterday, and the fall of the greenback. The dollar rose by 0.3% after a 2.4% drop on Thursday, its largest single-day decline since January 2023. Dollar-denominated goods become more expensive to overseas buyers when the U.S. dollar is stronger. Gold has had a better month than usual. Waterer stated that the metal has found a sort of cushion around the $4,000 mark, which has drawn buyers during dips. Kevin Warsh, Fed Chair, gave no indication of the next move the central bank will make at its Wednesday policy meeting. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the markets are pricing in a 63% chance of a September rate hike. Gold is often seen by many as a hedge to inflation. However, higher interest rates can dampen its appeal because they increase the opportunity costs of holding a non-yielding investment. A drone strike in 'the Middle East that ignited fires on two vessels in Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Damietta, has created a new danger for shipping through the Suez Canal. It is one of the few major export 'routes open to Saudi oil amid an expanding U.S. Iran war. Analysts at BCA Research wrote in a report that "over the long term, the Hormuz Crisis will fade, but geopolitical... Spot silver dropped 0.8% to $58,48 an ounce. Palladium dropped 0.8% and platinum fell 1.7%, but both metals are on track for a gain in the month. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala in Bengaluru)
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Oil drops more than $1 despite greater flows
The oil price fell on Friday, but remained on track to a?monthly rise of around a fifth? as more supplies flowed via crucial maritime chokepoints. This was despite the?absence of major breakthroughs? in talks between the?United States? and Iran? Brent futures dropped $1.03 or 1.2% to $88 per barrel at 0215 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), however, fell $1.50 or 1.8% to $82.09 per barrel. Both benchmarks were expected to increase by about 20% on a monthly basis. Analyst at ING, Daniel?Hynes said that signs of increased flow in the Strait of Hormuz are 'offsetting' Middle East tension. Since the U.S. and Israel war against Iran began on February 28, the strait has become a focal point of the?oil market. Saudi Arabia wants to lead a coalition that will boost defence co-operation in the Bab El-Mandeb Strait and Red Sea, as well as the Gulf of Aden. These are all choke points for energy supply. Saudi Arabia's defence ministry announced that 14 countries, including Djibouti and Egypt, Pakistan, Sudan, and Turkey, support the multinational maritime defense coalition. Last week, Houthi militants aligned with Iran in Yemen declared a 'naval blockade' on Saudi Arabia. They threatened the Red Sea route used by Saudi Arabia to export oil, a "alternative" to the Strait of Hormuz. Priyanka Sackdeva, an analyst at Phillip Nova, stated that although tanker traffic continues through the Strait of Hormuz, the increased security risks have boosted insurance rates and freight costs, resulting in a geopolitical premium embedded into oil prices. Sachdeva stated that "while prices have eased off recent highs, the overall trend is still positive." (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Sudarshan Varadhan)
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Governor of Volgograd says drone attack causes fire at Volgograd energy plant
The'regional governor, Andrei Bocharov said that a drone attack caused a fire at an energy facility in Volgograd, causing five injuries. He did not give any details about the facility. A Lukoil oil refinery is located in the region. Bocharov said on Telegram that five people were seeking medical attention after the attacks. Regional governor Yuri Slyusar posted on a messaging app that a woman was injured in Gukovo after a drone strike. Ukraine recently intensified its attacks on Russian logistic hubs such as those of the top online retailer Wildberries. It also continues to strike energy facilities, which has triggered a crisis of supply?across much of Russia. Wildberries, which had a few warehouses damaged as recently as Thursday, announced on Telegram that it?had paid? a second tranche of financial assistance to nearly 100,000 sellers who's goods were?damaged. Ukraine says that its attacks on its neighbour, which include cities under constant Russian assault, are "long-range sanctions", designed to reduce Moscow's ability to fight and force the conflict to end. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Clarence Fernandez and Jekaterina Gölubkova)
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South Korean shares, notoriously volatile, soar after renewed semiconductor purchases
South Korean shares rose 16% on Friday morning, fueled by a new surge in investment in global semiconductor stocks. This is the latest swing in a market that has been thrown back and forth by leveraged bets. The benchmark KOSPI rose 919.07 or 16.43% to 6,512.63 at 0115 GMT after three consecutive sessions that saw the index drop to its lowest levels since April 7. Both chipmakers are set to record record gains. Both chipmakers are responsible for more than half the KOSPI market capitalisation. The shocking turnaround was after the Philadelphia Semiconductor?Index soared 8% in U.S.A. on Thursday. Micron Technology rose 18%. Microsoft's stock jumped 15% after it reported stellar earnings, which boosted a new vigor to the AI investment outlook. Other tech-heavy market indicators also rose sharply in broader Asian markets. Japan's Nikkei gained more than 5%, while Taiwanese stocks jumped by 7%. Foreigners bought shares in South Korea worth 4.04 billion won (5.8 trillion won) on Friday. If the current gains hold, the KOSPI would?post the biggest percentage daily rise in its history. The index remains fragile, and is down over 30% from its peak in late June. South Korea announced this week new measures to curb the volatility in the stock markets caused by?leveraged product?. However, analysts say that they may not be enough to stop the skyrocketing volatility as the public's anger and pain grows over the sharp losses of this month. Han Ji-young is an analyst at Kiwoom Securities. She said: "It's a concern there is investor sentiment that they are trying to recover their losses from the recent stock market slump through leveraged bets." The KOSPI is on course for its biggest monthly drop since 1997's Asian Financial Crisis.
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At least 18 people killed in blast at Pakistan coal mine complex
The Balochistan Government reported that at least 18 coal miners died after an explosion on Thursday buried parts of a mining complex in Pakistan's Balochistan province. The government said that a rescue operation was still in progress to locate and free the 14 remaining trapped miners. Shoaib. Nosherwani is Balochistan’s.Mines and Mineral Development Minister. He told earlier that 36 people were inside the collapsed area of the complex at the time of.explosion. He said that 25 of them were missing by late Thursday night. Muhammad Atif, chief inspector of mines for the province, said that rescue efforts are underway at a depth 1,219 meters (4000 feet). He said that although there is a chance of finding some miners alive, it was not likely. Abdul?Ghani?Baloch is a senior mining official from the region. He said that two mines, which were located?closely together, had been?damaged by a powerful explosion of methane. The explosion took place in a remote region called?Sorange near the provincial capital of?Quetta. (Reporting from Saleem Ahmed, Quetta; editing by Rick Noack and Susan Fenton. Rod Nickel, Stephen Coates, and Stephen Coates.
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US Cyber Defense Agency warns that hackers are increasingly targeting water system
U.S. civilian cyber defense agency warned on Thursday of an increase in hackers who target?technology that is used to maintain, control and monitor water and wastewater systems.?Operators of these systems are advised to remove them as quickly as possible from the internet. The warning comes just two days after Minnesota’s state IT agency reported that more than 30 water systems were the target of a “coordinated cyberattack” on July 26-27. In a late-night statement on Thursday, the FBI stated that at least seven state water and wastewater utilities had reported incidents to them. Some of these activities "degraded" water operations. The New York Times reported that U.S. officials are reviewing the case and believe it is probable that hackers with Iranian links are behind the Minnesota attacks. The Iranian government's representatives did not respond immediately to a comment request. The attacks come amid an intensification in the war between Iran and the U.S., as both sides have been exchanging missile attacks and are threatening to increase destruction. Hacking activity linked to Iran targeting the U.S. Water facilities date back to before the war. However, a number of groups have launched a series prominent cyberattacks against domestic U.S. organisations, including Stryker Medical Services and the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority. The FBI was contacted by the White House to answer questions regarding the Minnesota incidents. The FBI didn't immediately respond to an inquiry about the alleged Iranian involvement in these incidents. Officials from the state and local governments of Minnesota have said that these attacks do not pose a threat to water safety. However, in some cases systems had to be taken offline manually and reset. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure security agency issued an alert on Thursday warning that hackers had, in some instances, changed passwords in order to lockout operators and disconnect specific devices from networks. This resulted in "boil-water notices and sustained manually operations." According to the FBI, unidentified victims reported that the "operational effects of the attacks" included, in some places, loss of pressure and flood. Minnesota IT Services, which is the information technology agency of the executive branch in the state, said that an investigation was ongoing. The majority of confirmed incidents involved the technology used by water systems to remotely monitor equipment and control it, such as programmable logic controls (PLCs) and the computer screens that operators use to manage these. John Israel, Minnesota’s chief information security officer, stated in the statement that Minnesota has “provided relevant data to the federal government which is evaluating these activities in a broader national context, and leading efforts to determine if it can be attributed a specific threat agent.” IRAN SUSPECTED Cynthia Kaiser, a senior FBI cybersecurity official told reporters that it is highly likely that Minnesota hacking campaigns are a continuation of prior Iranian-affiliated attacks on PLCs and critical infrastructure technology, as noted by CISA and the FBI in an April advisory. The advisory was updated by CISA, the FBI, NSA and other federal agencies on July 22, to include more devices that were targeted than initially tracked as well as current techniques and hacking activities. The fact that "a new advisory" was released is indicative of either a broadening or new technical details, or a re-invigoration of the campaign. Chris Day, chief technical officer for cybersecurity firm Tenable in the public sector, said that the Minnesota incidents were "consistent" and "interesting" with previous events. He also noted the information publicly reported about some systems temporarily being taken offline. (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates, Shri Navaratnam and AJ Vicens from Detroit)
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Fortescue targets increased 2027 iron ore exports after record-breaking annual exports
Fortescue, an Australian iron ore mining company, forecasted a 'higher level of shipments in 2027 following a record year for exports. The No. The world's No. Iron Bridge is being expanded to a capacity of 22 million tonnes, while the company explores ways to increase port capacity. This is currently seen as a key constraint for volume growth. Fortescue shipped 52,7 Mt of ore in the June quarter. This is 5% less than a year ago, but still above Visible Alpha's consensus estimate of 51,48 Mt. Hematite C1 unit costs increased 6% over the previous quarter to $19.37 per metric ton of wet material, due primarily to higher diesel prices. Dino Otranto, Fortescue Metals and Operations' Chief Executive said: "Ongoing volatility of global?diesel?prices only reinforces the...commercial case for eliminating fossil fuels from our operation."
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Vale reports 35% drop in Q2 Net Profit; reduces nickel and copper output forecast
Vale, a Brazilian miner, announced on Thursday a 35% drop in its second-quarter net profits compared to a year ago. Vale also revealed new shareholder remuneration as well as a narrowing of the range for copper and nickel production estimations for 2026. Vale, a major iron ore producer in the world, reported a net profit of $1.38 billion for the quarter April-June, which was below the $1.85 billion that an LSEG poll had predicted. EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) increased 9% in comparison to the previous year, while revenue grew 19%. Vale also projected that copper production in 2026 would be between 360,000-380,000 metric tonnes, up from the previous range of 350,000-380,000. The firm estimates nickel production to be between?185,000-200,000 tons in this year. This is compared to a previous range of?175,000 - 200,000. Vale announced that it would be implementing a share buyback of up to 100 million shares over an 18-month period. It will also pay dividends and interest of 2.03 reais per share. (Reporting and editing by Chris Reese, Natalia Siniawski, and Andre Romani)
Raychaudhuri: Mainland China capital boom fuels Hong Kong investment boom
Hong Kong's gateway to China is strengthened by the influx of mainland Chinese investors. This investment boosts market liquidity and depth, while also strengthening its position. This capital flow could be slowed by short-term headwinds, but the market's diversification and innovation will likely propel it over time.
Stock Connect, launched in November 2014 by the Hong Kong Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges, allowed mainland Chinese investors trade certain stocks listed in Hong Kong. This is known as "Southbound Stock Connect", while also facilitating flow in the other direction. Between 2017 and 2023, the Connect programme expanded to include interest rate swaps, bonds and ETFs.
The Southbound route has seen a 32% annual compound growth rate since 2015, which was the first year the programme was fully operational. According to Hong Kong Exchange data, Southbound's average daily turnover has grown from 1.6% in 2015. to 18% by 2024.
What is the EXUBERANCE all about?
Since the program began, Onshore investors consistently have bought more than they sold through Southbound. This has resulted in net inflows each year. The flows were good but volatile until 2023. After that, they exploded. In 2024 net inflows were more than twice as high, and this figure was nearly equaled within the first six month of 2025.
What is the reason for this interest in Hong Kong listed stocks? Geographic diversification is a major factor, since mainland Chinese investors are limited in their options for overseas assets.
Investors can also look to gain exposure to key sectors, such as insurance or technology. Onshore indices do not include, for example, the leading Chinese internet platforms Tencent, Alibaba, or AIA, leader in the insurance industry, and global bank HSBC.
Many stocks popular with mainland investors are listed in both Hong Kong and onshore, which again raises the question as to why capital is flowing into Hong Kong. It could be a simple matter of price.
These dual-listed shares are valued at much lower prices in Hong Kong than they are in Shanghai or Shenzhen. Prior to the Stock Connect programme, the Hang Seng AH Premium Index tracked the average premium for onshore "A shares". This was 3.2%.
The value of the shares soared to 34.1% as soon after. This was due to an influx of international capital into mainland Chinese stocks via Northbound Connect. Although it has decreased recently, the premium is still high.
HONG KONG IMPACT
Hong Kong's equity market has become more liquid and deeper due to the influx of capital. This makes it attractive for both local companies looking for new listings, and onshore Chinese firms seeking additional listings.
Hong Kong was the largest IPO market in the world in the first half 2025 with a total of $14 billion, easily surpassing Nasdaq which came in second with just under $9 billion.
The Stock Connect program has, at the same time, strengthened Hong Kong’s position as a renminbi offshore hub, as HKE argued. It has also driven robust cross border regulatory cooperation, including regular meetings and the exchange of ideas.
RAPID ROTATION
Hong Kong's markets could experience increased volatility as a result of the onshore money rush, particularly given the fact that mainland Chinese investors have historically traded in a way that involves rapid switching from one theme or sector to another.
Onshore investors, for example, flocked towards the internet platforms Alibaba, Tencent and the technology giant Xiaomi throughout 2024 and 2025 only to see significant volumes sold this past May/June.
Some common preferences among Chinese onshore investors, like the desire for high dividend yields could also begin to influence the relative performance in Hong Kong. CNOOC and China Construction Bank, which are both low-growth companies with high dividends, have been Southbound favorites this year. This is based on the monthly "Top 10 list".
HEADWINDS FOR SHORT-TERM
What could possibly derail the current exuberance? One headwind could be a possible weakening of renminbi, which would make HKD stocks more expensive to mainlanders.
Chinese investors may also be discouraged from diversifying their portfolios overseas if mainland markets perform better. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has risen 23.8% in 2025, far exceeding the Shanghai Composite index's 5.5% increase. The direction of flows could be reversed if return prospects changed.
The geopolitical tensions between the United States and China are also a persistent problem. Hong Kong allows money to move in and out without many restrictions. This exposes the city to risks from political conflicts. Chinese investors may be more likely to retain their capital if a negative political outcome occurs.
Most of these headwinds will likely be short-term, but the direction of travel over the long term is still clear.
The Mainland Chinese savings pool is a huge reservoir of capital that has largely remained untapped. PBOC reported that the total deposits at June 2025 would be RMB 320 trillion (US$ 44 trillion).
In March 2025, the total amount of overseas portfolio investments was only $1.58 trillion. This is less than 4% compared to domestic household deposits.
It is likely that the capital rush into Hong Kong's markets will only get started as mainland Chinese investors continue to diversify.
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(source: Reuters)