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Why Trump's Gulf trillions aren't as big as the headlines

Donald Trump, the U.S. president, concluded his Gulf tour Friday after securing what the White House claims is more than $2 trillion in combined deals for the U.S.

It is not clear how that number was arrived at. A total of $700 billion is calculated by adding up all the deals that were announced. Deal inflation is common on major visits, even for a president who prides himself in being an expert at making deals. The trip included large orders for Boeing planes, contracts to purchase U.S. defense equipment, agreements on data and technology, and other contracts.

Experts in finance and diplomacy say that the headline numbers have been exaggerated to show the extent of the cooperation between the two sides.

According to an analysis, many of the agreements signed by Trump during his Gulf tour were non-binding memos of understanding.

According to 'calculations, the total value of defence sales with Saudi Arabia and Qatar is close to $730 Billion.

It is impossible to independently verify if additional agreements have been signed without public disclosure.

Justin Alexander, Director at Khalij Economic, said: "The figures are inflated. Possible spending is counted in as actual. And most of the good deals would have been made regardless of who was the White House."

According to the Arab Gulf States Institute, Trump claimed that Saudi Arabia agreed to $450 Billion in deals during his first term. However, actual trade and investments flows between 2017 and 2020 amounted less than $300 Billion.

"DEALMAKER in Chief" When asked about the figures, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly replied: "President Trump, the Dealmaker in chief, is a great news story for American workers and companies." The President is quickly fulfilling his promise to Make America Wealthy and Strong Again.

Saudi and UAE officials didn't immediately respond to our requests for more information.

Memorandums are less formal and don't always result in cash transactions. Saudi Aramco announced, for instance, that it had signed 34 agreements with U.S. firms worth up to $90.00 billion in AI infrastructure, among other areas. Most of the deals were not binding MoUs, and had no value attached. Aramco had announced its agreement to purchase 1.2 million tonnes per year of LNG from NextDecade for a period of 20 years months before, but it was still included on Wednesday's list.

The White House stated that agreements signed with Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani will "generate economic exchanges worth at least $1.2 billion", including a $96-billion sale to Qatar Airways. It did not provide a detailed breakdown

Qatari official says that Qatar's sovereign fund has made an "economic commitment" to invest $500 Billion in the U.S. Economy over the next ten years. However, this pledge does not include any concrete plans.

Firas Macksad is the managing director of Eurasia Group. He said that if history is any guide, deals which have not delivered a real return will be abandoned after they have served their political purposes. Washington has signed a $142bn arms deal with Saudi Arabia, which covers purchases by more than 12 U.S. firms, and what Trump called a $42bn defence agreement with Qatar.

During his first presidential term, Trump announced an arms sale of about $110 billion during his trip to Saudi Arabia.

These deals are difficult to track because they last for many years. In 2018, only $14,5 billion in sales had been made, and Congress began questioning the deals after the murder of Saudi Journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Beyond the Numbers

The news, despite the vagueness in the timelines and commitments, has helped some stocks on the market.

Deutsche Bank attributes a 4.16 percent increase in Nvidia shares on Wednesday to a MoU announced by Saudi Arabia's state oil giant Aramco.

There were also new, concrete deals made by U.S. firms. Qatar Airways has placed an order worth $96 billion for 160 Boeing aircraft with GE Aerospace engine. Etihad Airways in Abu Dhabi will spend $14.5billion to purchase 28 Boeing jetliners with GE Aerospace engines.

Boeing's shares rose 0.64% after the Doha announcement on Wednesday.

The real benefits of Trump's trip go beyond the numbers.

The three Gulf states have also secured U.S. backing for issues they consider important. Saudi Arabia has moved closer to achieving its long-held ambition to develop a nuclear industry for civil use. Trump delinked normalisation of relations with Israel from the Saudi Arabian government's desire to do so. This is a significant win for Saudi Arabia. The UAE signed a framework which puts it on the path to acquiring advanced semiconductors in order to fulfill its long-held ambition to be a leader in AI.

Qatar was assured by Trump that the U.S. will protect it in case of an attack.

Hasan Alhasan is senior fellow for Middle East Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The Gulf States are completing unprecedented deals in business and arms sales, and taking their bilateral relations to a new level.

(source: Reuters)