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The UK's FTSE100 marks record winning streak
Investors were encouraged by signs of global trade tensions easing as the blue-chip index of Britain recorded its 15th consecutive day of gains, its longest winning streak ever. The FTSE 100 increased by 1.2% and reached levels not seen since early April, when Donald Trump announced his tariffs. The blue-chip index is just 3% off its March 3 record high, thanks to optimism about trade agreements with major U.S. trading partner countries and an impressive first quarter earnings season. Shell's share price rose 2.2% on the day after it beat analysts' expectations for its first-quarter profit. The oil giant also maintained its buyback program despite lower oil prices and refining margins compared to last year. Shell's performance boosted the energy index by 1.6%. NatWest shares rose by 1.3% following the bank's announcement of a 36% increase in its first-quarter profits, which exceeded expectations. This was due to higher margins for deposits and loan balances. Standard Chartered posted a 10% increase in profit, but warned alongside rival HSBC that higher tariffs could affect credit quality. The bank's stock ended at a flat price. Beijing said on Friday that it was "evaluating", an offer by Washington to hold discussions over Trump's tariffs of 145% on China, as a sign the trade tensions may be easing between the two world's largest economies. The domestically-focused FTSE 250 closed 0.52% higher. This was its eighth consecutive day of growth and fourth consecutive weekly increase. SSP Group increased by 3.5% following Financial Times' report that activist investor Irenic Capital Management had built up a 2% share in the food outlet operator. Ferrexpo, the Ukrainian-focused miner, surged for a second day in a row, leading gains on midcap index, with a 7.9% increase, boosted by U.S.Ukraine mineral deal.
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Firefighters in Europe want more money and staff
Firefighters claim they are understaffed Wildfires and house fires are on the increase EU launches Preparedness Strategy By Beatrice Tridimas Fire services are under pressure across Europe due to wildfires fueled by hotter and drier conditions, as well as household fires that are, according to unions, sometimes caused by non-certified solar installations. The firefighters want to see more funding and incentives for the many millions of volunteers that support the system. Pablo Sanchez, the policy lead of the European Federation of Public Service Unions' Firefighter's Network EPSU (EPSU), said: "We have over 1,000 volunteer hours per year." "They treat volunteers as if they were professionals." He said that the system was not sustainable over time. The EPSU released a new analysis ahead of International Firefighters' Day, May 4, which showed that the number of professional firefighters in Europe dropped dramatically between 2021-2023. The number of firefighter in Sweden, Romania, and Hungary has declined two years running, and by a total of more than 20%, between 2021-2023. Germany experienced a 7% drop in numbers, year on year. The number of firefighters in Belgium and Portugal decreased by 5% and 2 % respectively, even though both countries saw a slight increase in their numbers between 2022-2023. Sanchez said that in some countries the decline was due to cuts to public service, while others struggled to replace their staff because the profession had become less popular. Stephan Wevers, President of the Federation of European Fire Officers FEU said that recruiting and retaining volunteer firefighters was getting more difficult because training is becoming tougher and there's a new balance between work and life. He said, "We need to be more proactive to recruit new firefighters." Installations of Megafires and Shodys The share of government expenditure on fire services in total expenditure across the EU has remained roughly unchanged since 2001, at around 0.5%. This is despite an increase in demand. The EPSU warns that the EPSU's revised fiscal rules for the European Union to prevent excessive borrowing by governments, which entered into force in 2013, will force member states to cut back. They also warned that the public sector would be the hardest hit, further undermining the emergency response. According to EU statistics, in 2024 the number of fires in Europe will be slightly lower than the recent average, but the area burned will be higher. Since 2023, when wildfires were at their worst in Europe, unions have called for increased investment in equipment and personnel. The fire services of 12 EU countries shrank between 2022-2023, even though the number of firefighters in the EU increased. In 2023, more than 360,000 firefighters will serve Europe after a drop of 2,800 between 2021-2022. The EPSU also calls for mandatory decontamination procedures and upgraded protective equipment across all services. DWINDLING VOLUNTEERS As people's commitments to work and leisure have changed, volunteering has declined in popularity. Wevers said that training is becoming more intensive in response to the increasingly complex nature of fire incidents. This requires greater commitment from volunteer firefighters. He added that the EU's legislation needs to be changed in order to attract more volunteers. The European Parliament wants firefighters exempted under the Working Time Directive, which sets minimum standards of health and safety for working hours. This has affected the ability of volunteers to balance paid employment with voluntary commitments. In May, lawmakers and union representatives are expected to attend a hearing about the impact of the directive on firefighters and the other challenges they face. More firefighters isn't the answer. According to reports from the European Environment Agency (EEA), the World Bank, and independent advisors, EU policies and financing need to be boosted to increase the EU's resilience and prevention of climate change. In March, the EU launched a new preparedness strategy that focuses on education, early warnings, risk assessments, and coordination of EU-wide responses. This includes uniting civil protection units like firefighters. Wevers said that the FEU wants member states to improve nature management in high-risk zones and to restrict building.
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Sources say that OPEC+ will meet on Saturday in order to decide the output policy for June.
Two sources familiar with the situation said on Friday that eight OPEC+ nations will meet on July 7 to decide whether they want to increase oil production by a greater amount or if they prefer to do it at a slower pace. Originally, the meeting was scheduled for Monday. The reason for the early start was not immediately apparent. Saudi Arabia demanded a higher-than-planned increase in output from the eight member countries for May. This decision helped to lower oil prices below $60 per barrel, reaching a four-year low. The group now expects to increase output by 411,000 barrels a day (bpd), which is three times higher than the level agreed on in December. Sources claim that Riyadh is angry with Kazakhstan and Iraq for producing more than their OPEC+ target. The price of oil fell below $60 per barrel this week, in part due to reports that Saudi officials were allegedly involved with the theft. Allies and analysts said that the country could live with lower oil costs for a longer period of time. Last month, sources said that some members of the group wanted to see another accelerated increase for June. OPEC+ (which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, as well as allies like Russia) is currently reducing output by more than 5 million bpd. The group intends to hold a full-ministerial meeting on 28 May. Helima Croft, RBC Capital Markets, said: "While we believe the situation is fluid... we see a good case for not implementing another triple-decker hike next month. Instead we would stick more closely to the December taper timeline given the current market dynamics." She added, "We certainly don't rule out another plot turn from the producer group."
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Eversource Energy first-quarter profits rise on higher electricity prices
Eversource Energy announced a higher first-quarter profit Thursday as it benefited from increased electricity rates. Rate case proceedings are used by regulated utilities to increase power prices. They base their appeals on the investments they have made or expenses they have incurred when delivering their services. Eversource's quarterly earnings in its electric distribution segment increased 12.1% from the previous year to $188.4 millions, while its electric transmission segment earned $199.4million, an increase of 12.8%. Eversource Energy provides electricity and natural gas for approximately 4 million customers in Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Eversource Energy, which has ceased its involvement in offshore wind development in 2011, is now overseeing the construction of a substation on land for the Revolution Wind Project that is currently underway off the coast of Rhode Island. Eversource CEO John Nolan stated on Friday's earnings conference that the onshore substation was critical to the project being completed. He said: "We continue monitoring the overall progress of the construction project closely. The latest construction updates and cost estimates that we have received are the most recent construction updates." The administration of Donald Trump has put U.S. Offshore Wind Projects in danger. He ordered the suspension of an offshore wind farm in New York and announced tariffs which will increase the cost of the projects. Nolan stated that the project of Eversource is progressing as planned. Eversource's earnings in the water distribution segment fell 33.3%, to $3.6 millions, from last year. Eversource has agreed to sell Aquarion Water in January. The utility firm acquired the unit in 2017 for $2.4 billion. Eversource is looking to reduce its debt and concentrate on its electricity and natural gas business. Eversource reported net income of $550.8 millions attributable to the common shareholders for the quarter ending March 31. This is up 5.5% compared to a year ago.
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New journal to be published by research organizations to preserve US Climate Report
Two major U.S. science associations called on Friday for submissions to a special compilation that would have fed the National Climate Assessment. This comprehensive report about climate change impacts in the United States was effectively cancelled by the Trump Administration. The American Geophysical Union, the largest association of Earth scientists and space scientists, and the American Meteorological Society, called for this research in an effort to "maintain momentum" with the sixth NCA whose 400 authors were fired by the Trump Administration last week. The two organizations stated that the new collection would not replace the NCA, but rather create a vehicle for the work to be continued. AGU President Brandon Jones said, "It is our responsibility to protect and prepare our communities, neighbors, and children for the increasing risks of climate changes." The congressionally-mandated assessment, which had been prepared by several federal agencies and hundreds of contributing scientists, aimed to crystallize the top science on climate change and communicate it to wide audiences. The Global Change Research Act, signed by Republican president George H.W. Bush in 1990, was intended to assist policymakers and businesses working on ways to reduce emissions and adapt to the effects of a warmer world. Bush. The last NCA report was published in 2023. That year, extreme weather events costing over $1 billion were recorded, with expensive floods, storms, and fires happening roughly every third week. Donald Trump, the Republican president who rejects the science behind climate change, has also dismissed the 2018 assessment. He withdrew his country from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's latest meeting, where it was working on the next global report on the impacts and risks of climate change. (Reporting and Editing by Franklin Paul, Valerie Volcovici)
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Stocks rise on positive jobs data and signs that trade tensions between China and the US may ease
Global stocks rose on Friday, while Treasuries lost favour. This was due to optimism over a easing in U.S.-China tensions as well as better than expected U.S. job data. The MSCI world share index increased by 0.6%, reaching levels it last achieved before its dramatic fall early last month after U.S. president Donald Trump announced his Liberation Day Tariffs. The Friday payroll report showed that U.S. employers hired 177,000 people last month. This was higher than the 130,000 expected. In early trading, the S&P 500 gained 1%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.9%. Investors said that the U.S. unemployment rates would also remain at 4,2%. Jason Da Silva, Arbuthnot's global investment strategy director, said that the U.S. economic situation is still relatively solid. The number one indicator is what happens to tariffs. The recent boost in economic confidence has pushed U.S. government bonds lower. Ten-year Treasury yields are now at 4.27%, up 4 basis points. Treasuries were also under pressure because of fears that Japan would use its massive stockpiles of U.S. government debt as a bargaining tool in trade negotiations. Market sentiment was already positive ahead of the report on non-farm payrolls after China stated that the U.S. had repeatedly expressed its willingness for negotiations and that Beijing was ready to talk. The latest quarterly earnings report shows that uncertainty over the level of trade tariffs the White House may eventually impose against China has led to a significant deterioration of the long-term outlook of U.S. companies. Apple AAPL.O> trimmed their share buybacks on Thursday, and warned that tariffs could cost them $900 million in this quarter. General Motors warned that earnings would be hit by $4-$5 Billion and American Airlines retracted their profit forecasts. Bryon A. Anderson, head of fixed income at Laffler Tengler Investments, said that the Trump policy is a long-term threat. The markets did not reflect this long-term concern on Friday. European shares gained 1.6%. Germany's DAX added 2.4%. And the UK's FTSE 100 rose 1%. Earlier in the day, MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan reached its highest level since 20 March. Even after the data released this week that showed that the U.S. economic growth rate fell for the first three-year period in the first quarter, and Chinese factory activity declined at its fastest pace in sixteen months in April, the bullish mood continued to build. The U.S. Dollar, which has been in a downward spiral since the employment report was released, also pared some of its recent losses. It is still down on the day and last down 1% to 143.8 yen. The euro, which had been trading at $1.1327 was up only 0.3%. Meanwhile, the British pound maintained its recent rally by gaining 0.2% to $1.3298. The oil prices fell, however, following reports that Saudi Arabian officials were briefing allies, stating that they are unwilling to boost markets with additional supply cuts, and that it could cope for a long period of low price. Brent crude futures dropped 39 cents, to $61.14, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures declined 43 cents, to $58.18. The spot gold price increased by 0.2% to $3,244 per ounce.
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Rubio: Iran must stop all uranium enrichment.
Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state, said that Iran must 'walk away from' uranium-enrichment and missile development for long ranges and should allow inspections of military installations. The nuclear talks were postponed on Thursday. Rubio's remarks highlight the remaining major divisions in the talks between the two countries to resolve the longstanding dispute over Iran’s nuclear program. U.S. president Donald Trump has threatened to bomb Iran without an agreement. Rubio stated in an interview with Fox News that "they have to stop sponsoring terrorists and stopping helping the Houthis" (in Yemen). They also have to stop building long-range rockets which have no other purpose than to have nuclear weapons. Iran has said repeatedly that it will not abandon its missile program or its uranium-enrichment process - which is used to produce fuel for nuclear power stations but can also be used to create material for atomic weapons. A senior Iranian official said on Thursday that the fourth round of scheduled talks, which was to be held in Rome on Saturday, had been delayed and that a date would now be determined "depending upon the U.S.'s approach". Rubio said Iran should not enrich uranium to any level but import it for its nuclear programme. He said that if you can enrich at 3.67 percent, it will only take a few short weeks to reach 20% and 60%. Then you'll need 80 and 90 percent to make an armament. Iran claims it has the right to enrich its uranium in accordance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It denies that it wants to build a nuke. Rubio said that Iran would also have to accept the possibility of Americans being involved in any inspection program and that inspectors will need access to all facilities including military bases. Washington has increased pressure on Iran. U.S. president Donald Trump said on Thursday that all purchases of Iranian oil and petrochemicals must cease, and any country or individual buying them will be subject to secondary sanctions. Iran condemned this approach on Friday. The Foreign Ministry stated that Iran would not tolerate any approach based on pressure and threats, while reaffirming its commitment towards diplomacy. Reporting by Costas Pittas and Angus McDowall; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Gareth Jones, and Louise Heavens
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Agnico Eagle calls on Canadian Arctic Strategy amid US Threats
Canada's North has significant mineral resources, including gold and critical minerals Agnico Eagle has no interest in purchasing Barrick's Canadian mining operations By Divya Rajagopal TORONTO, MAY 2 - Agnico, Canada's largest gold miner, has asked the new government to create a formal Arctic Strategy in response to U.S. president Donald Trump's threat to make Canada the 51st State, said the company's chairman Sean Boyd. Agnico has surpassed Barrick Mining in terms of market capitalization, becoming the second largest gold miner in the world, only below Newmont Corp., which is the biggest bullion producer by both production and market capitalization. Agnico has expanded its Hope Bay Gold Project in Nunavut. This is the northernmost Canadian province that borders Greenland, the Arctic Ocean, and the Arctic Ocean. Agnico wants the new Canadian government to encourage investment in infrastructure for the Arctic. Boyd said in an interview that "it's just noise" (Trump's threat), but we as a nation have to take it seriously. We have called for a more structured, formalized Arctic strategy. He said that the company will be "way stronger" in advocating for the Arctic Strategy with Ottawa because it sees opportunities for growth in North America. Boyd stated that "it's pretty obvious, based on U.S. interests in Greenland, and the U.S. Administration's comments about Canada and critical metals that Canada should focus more on the opportunities that exist in Canada's Far North, and in communities and people who live there," Boyd added. Hope Bay Mine is expected to return to production in early 2019 after 2023, when the company placed the mine on care and maintenance to concentrate on drilling resources. Agnico is one of only a few gold mining companies in Canada that has assets. It bets big on Canada even though some of its peers are looking to sell their assets. The company's strategy is paying off for investors. Its share price has increased by 45% in the past year, making it among the top performing mining companies, according to Refinitiv. Bloomberg reported earlier this month that Barrick Gold was also a Canadian miner looking to sell its only mine in Canada. Boyd, however, has said that Agnico will not be buying the asset because it is too small. We have a strong pipeline of larger projects. "Our strategy is not to improve smaller projects," he said. Canada's North is home to some of the largest mineral resources on the planet, including gold, and has a poorer infrastructure than the rest of Canada. Nunuvut Premier P.J. Akeeagok told the media last month that because of the dangers posed by the south of Canada, it was time for the new government in Nunuvut to build basic infrastructure. Akeeagok: "I believe there is an incredible opportunity to bring different corridors into the north." (Divyarajagopal, Toronto; Editing done by Veronica Brown and Susan Fenton).
MORNING BID EUROPE - Bright signs from Beijing and bad omens for Apple
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets
The possibility of a de-escalation in trade tensions between Beijing, Washington and other countries provided a boost to the markets on Friday. It boosted risk sentiment and lifted stocks worldwide just as Apple's earnings reminded investors of the true cost of a trade war.
China's Commerce Ministry stated that Beijing is "evaluating" Washington's offer to hold discussions over President Donald Trump's tariffs of 145% and that Beijing's doors are open for discussion. China also said that Washington should show "sincerity in negotiations" and be ready to drop its unilateral tariffs.
Investors were relieved by the prospect of trade negotiations, as tariffs had caused global markets to tremble and raised fears of a recession. The data for the two largest economies in the world has begun to show signs that they are weakening.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq were surging, and European bourses are set to open strongly ahead of an avalanche of corporate earnings led by oil giant Shell and German chemicals company BASF.
The current earnings season has shown the costs of the erratic U.S. Trade Policy and its back-and forth tariffs. This led many companies around the world to lower or even withdraw their profit forecasts.
Apple cut its share-buyback program by $10 billion on Thursday and warned that tariffs may add $900 million to costs in this quarter. This has dimmed some of the optimism following strong results from Microsoft Meta Platform.
Apple CEO Tim Cook explained how Apple has begun stockpiling products to ensure that most of the iPhones sold in the U.S. during this quarter won't come from China.
While the markets may have taken comfort in the comments made by Beijing on Friday, there has still not been any resolution to the trade discussions that the U.S. and its allies have held.
This was especially evident when Japan’s Finance Minister said on Friday that the country could use their $1 trillion plus holdings of U.S. Treasuries in trade negotiations with Washington. It raised explicitly for the very first time, its leverage as an enormous creditor of the United States.
The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday.
Economic events: April flash data on inflation for the eurozone, manufacturing PMI data in France and Germany
Earnings of ING, BASF NatWest, Shell
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(source: Reuters)