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Wall St Week ahead-Shell-shocked Markets brace themselves for more tariff turmoil

After the worst week in U.S. stock markets since the start of the coronavirus epidemic five years ago, investors are on edge about the potential fallout of President Donald Trump's import levies.

Investors are looking for signs that the stock market is nearing a bottom, at least in the short term. Trump's tariffs have shook global asset prices. The S&P 500 index registered its largest weekly decline since March 2020, while the Nasdaq Composite ended Friday down over 20% from its record high in December. This confirms that the tech-heavy index is currently in a bearish market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week well below its record high from December, indicating a correction.

After Trump's Wednesday announcement, the markets were in a tailspin and fears of a recession arose.

Jeffrey Palma is the head of multi-asset solution at Cohen & Steers. There are many questions regarding tariffs and retaliatory duties, as well as where the situation ends.

The S&P 500 closed the week down by over 17% compared to its all-time high of February 19. According to LSEG, in the two days after Trump's announcement of tariffs, S&P companies lost $5 trillion in value. This is the biggest amount in two days.

Matthew Miskin is co-chief investment analyst at John Hancock Investment Management. This kind of decline... could lead to a weakening in economic activity.

Trump's tariffs will be the most significant trade barriers for more than a hundred years. They include a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, and targeted higher duties on dozens countries.

China responded with 34% additional tariffs on U.S. products on Friday, intensifying the trade war.

Investors have downgraded economic and earnings predictions, with JPMorgan analysts increasing the risk of global recession to 60% this year from 40% previously.

Investors hoped that Trump would make deals with certain countries in the coming days to reduce tariffs. Some investors were skeptical that Trump would make any concessions.

Citi strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a Friday note that despite Trump's chance to pivot, the "window is closing and some damage may have already been done to consumer and business trust regardless of what the final negotiated point is,"

The Cboe Volatility Index (an options-based measure for investor anxiety) has reached its highest level since April 2020.

The American Association of Individual Investors' survey showed a bearish mood at 61.9%. This is the highest level since 2009.

Investors are cautious of gloomy financial forecasts, as tariffs have clouded the outlook. U.S. firms will begin reporting their quarterly results in earnest this week. According to LSEG IBES, S&P earnings should have risen 7.8% from the previous period in the first quarter.

Major banks JPMorgan & Wells Fargo are due to report on April 11, 2019.

In a note published on Friday, RBC Capital Markets analysts cut their earnings forecasts for 2025.

Keith Lerner is co-chief investment officers at Truist Advisory Services. He said that the market's decline and growing pessimism may mean that news stories are less likely to be able to boost stocks.

Lerner explained that "if you had something even remotely positive at this time, you might see a spark in the short term because people are preparing for a negative outcome."

The consumer price index report for the month of March, due out on Thursday, could also help establish a baseline in terms of inflation in the United States, before the tariffs are implemented, which will likely increase the pressure on prices.

Investors are preparing for more Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2019 in response to the announcement of tariffs. According to LSEG, Fed fund futures account for 100 basis point of easing in 2019.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated on Friday that tariffs were "larger than anticipated" and the economic fallout will likely be as well, including higher inflation, slower growth and.

Palma of Cohen & Steers said that it is important for the markets to be stable in the next few days.

Palma stated that "we've had a couple of really, really big market days." What we don't want is for this to start a vicious cycle which destabilizes our financial system. Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; additional reporting in San Francisco by Noel Randewich; editing by David Gregorio

(source: Reuters)