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Comex gold stocks are on course to reach new records in the coming months

Comex gold stocks are on course to reach new records in the coming months

Analysts and traders claim that gold stocks in Comex storage facilities are likely to reach new records within the next few days, due to the possibility of tariffs preventing shipments from other countries to the United States.

According to the latest data from Comex (part of CME group), gold in US warehouses has reached a record high of 43.3 millions troy ounces, worth $135 billion, compared with 17.1 in November, when Donald Trump became U.S. president.

On Monday, spot gold prices soared to new highs of $3,100 an ounce. Bullion prices are up 19% this year, after a 27% increase in 2024.

Sources say that although gold flows have slowed, they are still continuing to flow to the U.S., as Trump promised to announce a massive tariff policy on Wednesday. He has called this "Liberation Day."

A source at a Swiss refinery said, "There's still material going to America almost every day." The world's largest bullion transit and refining hub is Switzerland.

Comex received 25.4 million ounces worth $79 billion in gold between December and March as the threat of U.S. tariffs on imports increased the premium between Comex Futures and London Spot Prices.

These flows of gold, which are carried by planes at high speeds, are the most obvious example of how uncertainty has affected the price and the physical state of the market.

BNP Paribas estimates that the Comex gold stock is equal to 5 years' worth of U.S. gold consumption. This comes out to 8.8 million ounces per year.

Adrian Ash, BullionVault's head of research in London said: "I wouldn't be surprised if gold exports from the U.S. started anytime soon."

The market may see a trend reversal or at least a slight easing if gold is not included in U.S. tariffs.

Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He said: "If this is confirmed, there's no reason that some of these bars shouldn't be sent back to London. It remains the main trading center for physical gold."

London, which is the largest gold trading center in the world, has absorbed the shock of the massive supply to New York. Liquidity improved, as central banks lent money and stored their bullion in the vaults of the Bank of England (BoE).

According to three sources who are familiar with the situation and requested anonymity in order to disclose operations, the waiting time for loading gold out of BoE vaults is now only 2-3 weeks, down from 4-6 weeks back in January.

BoE has declined to comment.

London Bullion Market Association reported 8,477 tons of gold as of end-February - still six times the amount of gold in Comex gold stock. Analysts say that the price discovery process is still in London. (Reporting and editing by Pratima Deai, Aurora Ellis and Polina devtt)

(source: Reuters)