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Oil need growth slowing as non-OPEC supply expands, says IEA

Worldwide oil need growth is losing momentum, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday as it trimmed its 2024 development projection, in sharp contrast to the view held by manufacturer group OPEC.

The IEA, which represents industrialised nations, has predicted that oil need will peak by 2030 as the world shifts to cleaner energy. OPEC, on the other hand, anticipates oil use to keep increasing for the next twenty years.

Monthly reports this week from the two forecasters underlined their starkly different price quotes for 2024 oil demand.

The IEA's monthly report on Thursday stated it expects global oil need to grow by 1.22 million barrels daily (bpd) this year, somewhat below last month's price quote. OPEC on Tuesday stayed with its much steeper growth projection at 2.25 million bpd.

In the IEA's view, the deceleration this year - about half of the growth in 2023 - is linked to a slowdown in Chinese usage. The IEA had previously anticipated 2024 demand development of 1.24 million bpd.

The expansive post-pandemic growth phase in international oil demand has largely run its course, the IEA stated, including that a. harsher global macroeconomic environment is likewise most likely to constrain. development this year.

The Brent oil criteria has risen about 6% so far this year. as attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have raised supply fears,. with January blackouts in major non-OPEC oil producing nations. such as the United States contributing to issues together with a fresh. round of supply cuts by the larger OPEC+ group in the very first. quarter.

Gains, however, have actually been topped by worries over demand as. major economies continue to face high interest rates. targeted at suppressing sticky inflation.

Japan slipped into recession at the end of last year,. surrendering its title as the world's third-biggest economy to. Germany. Britain's economy, the sixth-largest, also fell under. economic crisis in the 2nd half of 2023, official data showed on. Thursday.

Oil costs traded lower on Thursday after publication of the. IEA report, with Brent crude dipping 0.2% towards $81 a. barrel by 1340 GMT.

SUPPLY GROWTH

On the supply side, IEA raised its projection for 2024,. estimating supply will grow by 1.7 million bpd versus its. previous forecast of 1.5 million bpd.

The company pointed out supply from producers outside OPEC+.

The IEA now expects supply to grow to a record high of about. 103.8 million bpd, nearly completely driven by producers outside. OPEC+, including the United States, Brazil and Guyana.

Given the robust outlook for supply outside OPEC+, the IEA. expects a minor build in inventories in the first quarter, it. said, including that OPEC+ could be pumping above requirements if. the extra voluntary cuts are unwound in the 2nd quarter.

A brand-new OPEC+ voluntary cut of 2.2 million bpd for the. quarter took effect last month.

OPEC+ crude oil output from all 22 member countries fell by. 330,000 bpd to 41.52 million bpd in January, the IEA stated, after. protests shut in Libyan production and a few of the bloc's. members deepened output cuts-- though not by as much as vowed.

The IEA sees need for OPEC+ crude plus inventories. averaging 41.2 million bpd in the very first quarter-- less than. January's output - before rising to 41.5 million bpd in the. second quarter.

(source: Reuters)