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Italy's Ludoil purchases Sicilian oil refinery as war threatens Europe fuel supply
G.O.I., a Cypriot private equity fund, has agreed to purchase the Sicilian oil refiner ISAB. The Italian group Energy said Wednesday that the Iran War has revealed Europe's dependence on the Gulf to supply jet fuel and refined products. Ludoil is the jet fuel supplier to Rome's Fiumicino airport. The Morattis family of Italy and the Brachetti Perettis family in Azerbaijan sold their oil refineries recently to Vitol, a commodity trader. Ludoil had already begun discussions with G.O.I. When the United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28, they used ISAB to generate energy. Ludoil was founded in 1954 by Donato Ammaturo's grandfather. The new entity, which is Italy's largest privately-held multi-energy firm, will have consolidated revenues of more than 10 billion euros (11,7 billion dollars). The acquisition will enable ISAB to evolve from a refinery to an energy company. This will enhance competitiveness, supply security and the development new value chains in energy. Ludoil stated that it would integrate ISAB into its portfolio, which included coastal storage terminals and a fuel retailer network. It also hoped to develop a biofuels business for the refiner. The deal is divided into two phases. In the first, Ludoil will acquire a 51 percent stake in ISAB. This acquisition is subject to a number of conditions, including the approval from the Italian government, under the so-called golden powers regime. Ludoil has not revealed how much money it will pay for the stake. It also did not respond immediately to requests for more information. ISAB, which accounts for over 20% of Italy's refinery capacity, is considered by the government to be a strategic asset. G.O.I. Energy? Bought from Russia's Lukoil by 2023. Ludoil has not said whether the existing agreement between Trafigura and Ludoil for 'the supply of raw material and 'the purchase of finished goods will remain in place. According to a person with knowledge of the deal, Trafigura will keep its contract for supply and offtake with ISAB's Priolo refining facility.
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TSX falls as gold, technology stocks drag
Canada's main stock index dropped on Wednesday, as gold and technology stocks?came under pressure?while investors viewed developments?around the Middle East conflict and U.S. president Donald Trump's China visit. At 11:03 a.m., the S&P/TSX composite index of the Toronto Stock Exchange fell 0.5% to 34 128.67. ET. It closed Tuesday at its highest level in three weeks. This index is the worst performing on TSX in this?year. It has fallen by nearly 20%. Brian Madden said that the Canadian technology sector was more of a victim than a benefit of artificial intelligence due to a high concentration of software firms. It was down a lot during the first quarter, and it hasn't recovered as well as the U.S. technology sector." A positive earnings season, largely driven energy companies and miner, has helped to keep the Canadian equity markets just below their record high of March 2. Oil?prices remained largely unchanged, but above $100 a barrel as investors watched a fragile Middle East truce and awaited a summit between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. The energy stocks are steady. Gold?miners fell 1.4%, as the price of precious metals dropped. This was after U.S. producer price data that were hotter than expected reinforced expectations of a tighter monetary policies. Equinox Gold's shares dropped 3.6% following the announcement that it would be acquiring Orla Mining as part of an all-stock transaction to create a North American producer of gold worth $18.5 billion. Orla shares ?dipped 0.7%. Boyd Group shares, which operate autobody and autoglass repair facilities in North America, fell 12% as the company failed to meet analysts' expectations regarding first-quarter sales. (Reporting and editing by Joyjeet Das in Bengaluru, Sruthi Shakar in Bengaluru)
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Europe falling short on replacing Middle East jet fuel imports, IEA says
The 'International Energy Agency' said on Wednesday that Europe's jet fuel supply from the Middle East has plummeted since April and the region is not able to replace those shipments. The IEA reported in a report that Middle East jet fuel supplies to Europe fell from 330,000 bpd per day in March to only 60,000 bpd per day in April. This was due to the Iran War and the effective closure of Strait?of Hormuz. According to the IEA, importing'regions such as Europe' should replace a minimum of 80% and preferably 90% of lost Middle -East import volumes in order to avoid summer shortages. The IEA reported that European jet fuel imports in April were only 70% of the March levels. The European Union increased its imports of jet-fuel from the United States and Nigeria but not enough to compensate for the Middle East's losses. These flows were 221,000?bpd according to?Kpler's data in April. The report stated that "With European inventories reducing at a rapid pace, and Middle East flow still largely 'offline, supply chains are now stretching to cover a much greater gap...In the absence of a near-term solution to the 'Hormuz issue, rebalancing is going to take time." Reporting by Seher DAREEN in London and editing by Alex Lawler & Kirsten Donovan
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The Latvian government has lost its majority in the parliament due to its handling of Ukraine drone incidents
Evika Silina, the Latvian Prime Minister, was left without a majority in the 'parliament' on Wednesday after the 'left-wing Progressives Party' announced that it would withdraw its support. This decision comes after the Progressives' defence minister Andris Spruds was fired at the weekend for his handling of incidents with stray Ukrainian drones that flew into Latvia from Russia. Andris Suvajevs, the parliamentary leader of the Progressive Party, told the media that the current Prime Minister "doesn't have nine votes" from the Progressives after meeting Silina. He added: "Therefore, we?call President Edgars Rinkevics?to?begin the political consultations about the?formation a new government as soon as possible." Suvajevs said that Silina could either resign, or she can wait until the parliament votes her out. The Prime Minister wrote on X she was speaking with her centre-right New Unity Party and the other coalition parties, the Greens & Farmers Union regarding their next steps. The national broadcaster LSM reported that Rinkevics will meet with all the parliamentary factions this Friday. BNS reported that the opposition party United List announced on Wednesday it would vote no confidence against Silina in parliament, and was'ready to lead the next government. (Reporting from Andrius Sytas, Vilnius; Janis Laizans, Riga; editing by Hugh Lawson).
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Rate cut bets are impacted by inflation worries as gold prices continue to fall
The gold price fell a second time on Wednesday, as inflation fears fueled by war weighed down on the expectations of interest rate reductions. Markets were also looking forward to Trump-Xi's upcoming meeting. At 09:05 am EDT (1305 GMT), spot gold fell 0.6%, to $4686.99 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.2% to $4694.70. U.S. Producer Prices increased more than expected during April. They posted their largest gain since early 2022. This is the latest sign that inflation has accelerated amid the Iran War. Peter Grant, senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals and vice president, said that inflation remains "sticky" and therefore, expectations of higher rates for longer were reinforced. This has led to gold's price being pushed up in the last two days. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation. However, higher interest rates can put pressure on the metal. Data released on Wednesday revealed that U.S. consumer inflation rose further in April. The annual rate posted its biggest gain in three year. Last month, the U.S. Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%. CME Group's FedWatch reports that traders have priced in a rate cut by the U.S. this year. Donald Trump is on his first trip to China as a U.S. President in almost a decade, eager to make deals, maintain the fragile trade truce between?the second-largest economic power and boost public approval ratings that have been hurt by his war with Iran. India raised its import tariffs for gold and silver from 6% to 15% as part of an effort to reduce overseas purchases of metals. This will also help to ease the pressure on India's foreign exchange reserves. India is the second largest consumer of precious metals in the world. Grant stated that the news of higher import duties has caused some?demand worries and could be a long-term headwind. After hitting a session high of two months earlier, spot silver dropped 0.2% to $86.70 an ounce. Platinum fell 0.3%, to $2,120.20 after reaching its highest price since March 17. Palladium fell 0.4% to $1,484.10. Ashitha Shivprasad, reporting from Bengaluru and Alexander Smith, editing)
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India's increased tariffs on gold and silver are unlikely to affect demand
India, which is the second largest gold consumer in the world, raised its tariffs for gold and silver from 6% to 15%, as the Iran war strains New Delhi’s balance of payment. India imports nearly all its gold and has repeatedly tried to reduce consumption. India's weddings and festivals are a major part of its culture, so gold is a necessity rather than merely luxuries. Why is India targeting imports of gold and silver? India's current-account deficit is being impacted by imports of precious metals that New Delhi considers non-essential. The rupee has been impacted by the rising prices of gold and silver, which have increased the bill and led to a widening of external outflows. India spent $84 billion in gold and silver imports during the fiscal year ending March. This is up from $35.5 billion 10 years ago. India is the largest consumer of silver in the world. It's used for jewellery, coins, bars, and industrial applications from solar energy to electronic devices. In the last year, silver ETFs have seen record-high inflows, indicating that investment is driving demand more than jewellery or silverware. Do higher tariffs curb demand? Indian consumers are very price sensitive, and sudden price increases often cause them to delay their purchases. The annual demand for gold has been relatively stable at 666-803 tons on average, even though local prices have risen by 443% in the last decade. The demand remained resilient even when India increased gold import tariffs from 2% to 10% between 2012 and 2013 Buyers are unlikely to stop buying gold because of a tariff increase. Indian households purchase gold to protect themselves against inflation, currency weakness and long-term value. In rural areas, farmers use it for financial protection during times of crisis. Banks and finance companies offer credit in minutes to millions of Indians. Which Gold Demand Segment Will Be Hit Hardest? India's gold consumption is dominated by jewellery demand, which accounts for 75%. The rest comes from investment, in the form of coins, bars, and gold ETFs. The demand for jewellery has already weakened due to high prices. Further increases are likely in the near future and will push buyers toward lower-carat pieces. Investors buy gold to anticipate price increases, while Indians view it as a safe haven and an inflation hedge. The higher tariffs increase?local prices and make gold a more attractive asset. In addition, rising prices can attract new investors who are worried about missing out on future gains. In the March quarter, investment demand for gold exceeded jewellery consumption for first time. Investors turned to the metal due to weak equity returns. Inflows to local gold ETFs are expected to continue rising. Will the TARIFF RISE Spur Gold Smuggling? The latest duty increase has increased the margins of so-called grey markets to 18% from around 9%. New Delhi reduced tariffs in 2024, and the unofficial gold imports dropped sharply. The gold imports dropped from 156.1 tons to 69.2 tonnes in 2024, then further to 20.4 tons in 2020. The margin for smuggling one kilogram of gold is now at a record high 3 million rupees. This creates a greater incentive for gray market operators.
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India has cleared a $3.9 billion plan to convert coal to gas in order to reduce the reliance on imported fuel.
Ashwini Vaishnaw, India's Information Minister, said that the cabinet had approved a scheme worth 375 billion rupees ($3.92billion) to promote coal gasification, which will reduce reliance on imported fuels, and use domestic coal for cleaner industrial purposes. The Cabinet decision seeks encouragement for the conversion of coal to synthetic gas, which can be used in power production, fertiliser production, petrochemical applications, and other industrial applications. Vaishnaw, who spoke on Wednesday, said that this would, in turn, help India reduce its imports of liquefied gas (LNG), ammonia, urea and methanol. India's gas exports have been affected by the Middle East conflict. As part of their efforts to reduce emissions, several countries, such as the United States and China are also exploring coal gasification technology. India has a coal reserve of 401 billion tons, and a lignite reserve of 47 billion tons. The country aims to gasify 75 million metric tonnes of coal per year. The government will provide financial support of up to 20% of the costs of plant and machinery. Power producers are becoming more interested in this sector. NTPC, a state-run power company, is 'looking to enter coal gasification, with plans to produce between five million and ten million tonnes of synthetic 'gas per year over the next three or four years, according to a report last year. In 2024, India approved a 85 billion rupee incentive scheme for coal gasification.
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Aluminium nears 4-year high and copper continues to push towards record January high
Due to 'bullish technical indicators and the outperforming of prices in the U.S. The benchmark three-month 'copper' on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.8% to $14138 per metric ton, in open-outcry official trading, following a record-breaking close on Tuesday. The LME index of six base-metals contracts closed on a record on Tuesday, with copper moving closer to the intraday record of $14,527.50 that was set on January 29. Prices for the entire complex were also strong. Bets on the future growth of demand for copper are a good way to support the price. Recent strong factory data is also a great way to ease concerns about the Middle East conflict and the availability of sulphuric acids. The Yangshan premium copper The price of copper in China has risen by 3%, to $72 per tonne, the highest level since mid-April. This indicates that demand is still strong, despite higher prices. The most active COMEX copper futures for July gained 1.8%, reaching a record-high of $6.6485 per lb. The U.S. copper market is currently trading at about $500 per ton more than the LME, with Washington expected by the end of June to decide whether or not to impose tariffs on imported refined copper. The anticipation of policy actions is drawing metal to the United States, and tightening the availability elsewhere. This adds another layer of support for the global market, Neil Welsh, the head of metals of broker Britannia Global Markets said in a note. LME?aluminium prices rose 2.4% in official trading to $3 649 per ton after hitting $3 657, the highest level since April 16. Metal is nearing its highest level in four years, as the Iran War disrupted Middle East producers' supply. Daily LME data shows that after Malaysia's 30,000 new cancellations, the on-warrant aluminum stocks in LME registered warehouses dropped to 301.722.5 tons. Zinc increased by 0.1%, to $3,535. Lead, on the other hand, rose by 0.4%, to $2,004.5. Both metals reached their highest levels since late January. Nickel increased 1.5% and tin gained 1.7%. Chinese companies in Indonesia, a giant nickel producer, warned that local tax increases and tighter ore quotas would threaten their investment. (Reporting and editing by Shreya Biwas; Polina Devitt)
Oil need growth slowing as non-OPEC supply expands, says IEA
Worldwide oil need growth is losing momentum, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday as it trimmed its 2024 development projection, in sharp contrast to the view held by manufacturer group OPEC.
The IEA, which represents industrialised nations, has predicted that oil need will peak by 2030 as the world shifts to cleaner energy. OPEC, on the other hand, anticipates oil use to keep increasing for the next twenty years.
Monthly reports this week from the two forecasters underlined their starkly different price quotes for 2024 oil demand.
The IEA's monthly report on Thursday stated it expects global oil need to grow by 1.22 million barrels daily (bpd) this year, somewhat below last month's price quote. OPEC on Tuesday stayed with its much steeper growth projection at 2.25 million bpd.
In the IEA's view, the deceleration this year - about half of the growth in 2023 - is linked to a slowdown in Chinese usage. The IEA had previously anticipated 2024 demand development of 1.24 million bpd.
The expansive post-pandemic growth phase in international oil demand has largely run its course, the IEA stated, including that a. harsher global macroeconomic environment is likewise most likely to constrain. development this year.
The Brent oil criteria has risen about 6% so far this year. as attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have raised supply fears,. with January blackouts in major non-OPEC oil producing nations. such as the United States contributing to issues together with a fresh. round of supply cuts by the larger OPEC+ group in the very first. quarter.
Gains, however, have actually been topped by worries over demand as. major economies continue to face high interest rates. targeted at suppressing sticky inflation.
Japan slipped into recession at the end of last year,. surrendering its title as the world's third-biggest economy to. Germany. Britain's economy, the sixth-largest, also fell under. economic crisis in the 2nd half of 2023, official data showed on. Thursday.
Oil costs traded lower on Thursday after publication of the. IEA report, with Brent crude dipping 0.2% towards $81 a. barrel by 1340 GMT.
SUPPLY GROWTH
On the supply side, IEA raised its projection for 2024,. estimating supply will grow by 1.7 million bpd versus its. previous forecast of 1.5 million bpd.
The company pointed out supply from producers outside OPEC+.
The IEA now expects supply to grow to a record high of about. 103.8 million bpd, nearly completely driven by producers outside. OPEC+, including the United States, Brazil and Guyana.
Given the robust outlook for supply outside OPEC+, the IEA. expects a minor build in inventories in the first quarter, it. said, including that OPEC+ could be pumping above requirements if. the extra voluntary cuts are unwound in the 2nd quarter.
A brand-new OPEC+ voluntary cut of 2.2 million bpd for the. quarter took effect last month.
OPEC+ crude oil output from all 22 member countries fell by. 330,000 bpd to 41.52 million bpd in January, the IEA stated, after. protests shut in Libyan production and a few of the bloc's. members deepened output cuts-- though not by as much as vowed.
The IEA sees need for OPEC+ crude plus inventories. averaging 41.2 million bpd in the very first quarter-- less than. January's output - before rising to 41.5 million bpd in the. second quarter.
(source: Reuters)