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Asian shares fall from record highs on oil gains due to Iran risk
Asian shares fell from record highs Thursday, as oil prices 'extended their gains due to renewed shipping problems?in Gulf. This underscored fragile risk sentiment in the face of a 'peace deal that eludes both the U.S. European stocks are preparing for a weaker opening, with panregional futures down 1,1%. Wall Street futures fell 0.5% in Asia. Overnight, S&P 500 rose 1%, and Nasdaq rose 1.6%, to set new record-closing heights. This was helped by the strong start of earnings season, which has eased consumer concerns over the U.S. economy despite the rising cost of energy due to the "Iran War". MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan, which tracks Wall Street, had risen to an all-time high of 831.56 but soon began to sell. Last down 0.5%. Nikkei, the Japanese stock index, reached a new record for the second consecutive day. It then fell 0.9%. Taiwan and South Korea's markets also reached new highs before turning lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 1.1% and China's blue chip index dropped 0.8%. Brent crude futures rose another 1.4% to $103.3 per barrel on Thursday, after soaring 3.5% overnight and crossing back over $100. Iran on Wednesday 'captured' two container ships that were trying to leave the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are watching the Middle East ceasefire, which is fragile, to see if it will last. The markets are on edge. "We are still in the no-war no-peace area, which means that even an unverified fear of escalation could jolt crude oil and send risk assets down," said Charu C. Chanana. Chief investment strategist at Saxo. Oil's rise, even without any clear trigger, shows that investors are still highly sensitive to tail risks. Overnight on Wall Street, shares of GE Vernova surged 13.75% after the power equipment maker raised its annual revenue forecast on the AI boom, and Boeing advanced over 5% after ?a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. Tesla, the electric automaker, reported a positive surprise in its free cash flow for the first quarter. However, investors were sceptical about the company's projections of?sharply higher spending plans on AI and robots, which led to a 2% drop in shares after the bell. Treasury yields increased with oil prices. After a slight increase of 1 basis point on Wednesday, the yield for two-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 2 basis points to 3.8106%. The 10-year yield rose 3 bps to 4.3214% after being little changed overnight. The dollar held onto its small overnight gains. The euro remained steady at $1.17 after losing 0.3% overnight. It was just above the 10-day low of $1.1691. The risk-sensitive?Australian Dollar fell 0.2% to $0.7147. Markets are remarkably good at 'looking through risk. This may continue. The list of risks continues to grow as solutions remain elusive, said Laura Cooper. Global investment strategist for asset manager Nuveen. "The dissonance can't last forever... At some stage, what's being ignored may become the only thing that matters." (Editing by Kim Coghill & Shri Navaratnam).
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How much risk can the markets tolerate?
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. When you're always looking over your shoulder, it's difficult to?pop the champagne. Asian stocks took the lead on Wall Street to reach all-time highs, but investors were not spared much in 'the Middle East War as the standoff between Iran & U.S. continued. In Asia, there were some good news. SK Hynix set a record quarterly profit. South Korea's economic growth was the fastest in six years. And Japan's manufacturing sector expanded at its highest pace in four years. The big question is whether this momentum (now mostly historical) will continue. Early in the session, indexes in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan set records. However, these gains were quickly reversed, and it was a sea red on most bourses when the trading day began. Investors have a hard time taking a risk, especially after Iran seized two vessels in the Strait of?Hormuz. A fragile ceasefire is also in doubt. Shipping and security sources reported that the U.S. Military intercepted three Iranian flagged tankers and diverted them from their positions near India and Malaysia, as well as Sri Lanka. Brent crude futures are back to $100 per barrel. Another busy day in Europe, with more corporate results and a number of PMI flash readings due from the UK. Germany, France, and the wider euro zone. Companies from consumer goods to travel and mining are already warning of the impact that the "Middle East War" is having on costs, supply chains, and consumer confidence. The government is also beginning to raise the alarm about the impact of higher energy prices on their economies. New Zealand's recovery is delayed, but not derailed. Finance Minister Nicola Willis stated on Thursday that the conflict had risen fuel?costs, and impacted business and consumer sentiment. This comes after Germany's Economy Ministry cut its growth projections for 2026-2027 and increased its inflation forecasts. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. - UK, France, Germany, euro zone flash PMIs (April) Nokia, J Sainsbury and Orion Oyj earnings
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Hormuz still disrupts shipping, despite lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations
The oil prices continued to rise 'on Thursday, despite the fact that 'peace talks' between Iran and the United States had stalled and both countries maintained their restrictions on trade flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures were up $1.37 or 1.3% to $103.28 per barrel at 0410 GMT after Wednesday's settlement above $100 was the first in over two weeks. West Texas Intermediate futures also rose $1.52 or 1.6% to $94.48. The benchmarks for both closed Wednesday more than $3 higher after larger-than expected?gasoline stock withdrawals in the U.S. and the failure of the Iran peace talks. In a recent note, ING analysts said that the oil market was repricing expectations with little progress being made in finding a solution in the Persian Gulf. They added that hope for a resolution is fading because peace talks are stalling. The seizure of Iranian vessels that were attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz by Iran suggests that disruptions in shipments will continue. Iran and the United States have agreed to a ceasefire after a request from Pakistani mediators. The strait is still closed to?ships, which used to carry about 20% of the daily oil supply in the world until the conflict began on February 28, 2018. Iran has tightened its grip over the strategic chokepoint by seizing two ships on Wednesday. Trump has also maintained the U.S. Navy's blockade on Iran's maritime trade. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who is also a top negotiator and leader of Iran’s negotiations, said that a complete ceasefire would only make sense if this blockade were lifted. Shipping and security sources reported on Wednesday that the U.S. Military has intercepted at least 3 Iranian flagged tankers in Asian waters, and are redirecting them from positions near India and Malaysia, as well as Sri Lanka. Trump's extension of the ceasefire on Tuesday was a last-minute retreat from his warnings to bomb Iran’s power plants and bridges. White House Press Secretary KarolineLeavitt informed reporters that Trump had not set a date for the end of the extended ceasefire. U.S. EXPORTS SET A RECORD HIGH Energy trade: Total exports of crude oil and petroleum products from United States rose by 137,000 barrels a day to a "record" 12.88 million barrels bpd, as Asian and European nations bought up supplies following disruptions due to the Iran War. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude stock levels rose, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell. The?inventory of crude oil rose by 1.9million barrels, as opposed to the 1.2million-barrel expectation in a recent poll. Analysts had predicted a draw of 1.5 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell by 3.4m barrels, compared to expectations of a drop of 2.5m barrels. (Reporting from Arathy Chow and Emily Chow, both in Singapore; editing by Tom Hogue and Shri Navaratnam.)
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HSBC lowers India's rating to 'underweight" as oil price shock clouds earnings recovery
HSBC has downgraded Indian equities from "neutral" to "underweight", its second reduction in less than a week, as it believes that the surging energy costs triggered by the Middle 'East war will threaten the enduring strength of India's earnings recovery. Brent crude has risen by 42% since late February when the conflict began. It is now trading at over $100 per barrel, increasing inflation and growth risk for the third largest oil importer in the world. HSBC stated in a note published on Thursday that "India looks less attractive compared to North East Asian counterparts in the current macro-environment". The benchmark Nifty 50 index and Sensex have fallen 6.7% and '7.9% respectively this year, making them among the worst performing global markets. HSBC believes that oil and gas markets will remain tight for the majority of the quarters in June and September. In this context, HSBC expects consensus earnings forecasts of 16% growth year-on-year for 2026 to be revised downward. Earnings growth could be reduced by 1.5 percentage points if crude oil prices increase 20%. The brokerage stated that even though domestic equity valuations had corrected from their peaks they could 'appear expensive again' as earnings downgrades are filtered through. The report also highlighted foreign investor concerns including the rupee depreciation risk if oil prices remain high amid increasing concerns about the impact of "artificial intelligence" on Indian software services. In 2026, foreign portfolio investors will have sold Indian stocks worth $18.5 billion after selling stocks worth $18.9 last year. HSBC stated that while domestic flows remain positive, especially through?SIPs and IPOs, a stronger IPO after a weaker first quarter due to the season may require a resurgence in foreign demand. The report emphasized that there are still some opportunities in private banks, healthcare and base metals, but overall, the case for Indian equity has declined.
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Asian shares fall from record highs on oil gains due to Iran risk
Asian shares fell from record highs as investors pulled?some money from the table after a 'technology-driven rally. Oil prices rose for the 'fourth? straight day, as the fragile Middle East ceasefire hung in balance. Overnight, S&P 500 rose 1%, and Nasdaq increased 1.6%, to set new record-breaking highs. This was helped by the strong start of earnings season, which has eased consumer concerns over the U.S. economy despite the rising cost of energy due to the Iran War. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan, which tracks Wall Street, had risen to a record 831.56 point before selling began. Last down 0.7%. Japan's Nikkei index reached a new record for the second consecutive day, before falling by over 1%. Taiwan and South Korea's markets also reached new highs before turning lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 0.9% and China's blue-chip index dropped 0.3% Brent crude futures rose another 1.3% to $103.18 per barrel on Thursday, after a 3.5% increase overnight. Iran captured two container vessels on Wednesday, preventing them from leaving the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are watching to see if the fragile ceasefire in Middle East will last. Nick Twidale is the chief market strategist of ATFX Global. He said that the increasing tensions in the Middle East are starting to scare investors, as more ship seizures are eroding hopes for further peace talks. The spike in Wall Street performance overnight was followed by a pullback, which was a reaction to the events taking place in the Middle East. After the earnings-driven rally in Asia, Wall Street futures declined. Nasdaq futures were down 0.5% and S&P futures were down 0.7%. European stock futures anticipate a weaker opening, with panregional futures down by 1.1%. Shares of GE Vernova surged 13.75% after the power equipment maker raised ?its annual revenue forecast on the AI boom, and Boeing advanced over 5% after a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. Tesla, the electric automaker, reported a positive surprise in its first-quarter?free cashflow, but investors were sceptical about its plans to spend more on AI and robots. Its shares fell 2% following the bell. Treasury yields increased. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury rose by 2 basis points, to 3.8106%. It had risen?1 basis point on Wednesday. The 10-year yield rose 2 basis points to 4.3174% after being little changed overnight. The dollar held onto its small overnight gains. The?euro remained steady at $1.17 after losing 0.3% overnight. It was just above the?10-day lowest of $1.1691 Markets are remarkably effective at identifying risks, and this may continue. The list of risks continues to grow as solutions remain elusive, said Laura Cooper. Global investment strategist for asset manager Nuveen. "The dissonance can't last forever... At some stage, what is ignored may become the only thing that matters." (Editing by Kim Coghill & Shri Navaratnam).
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Gold drops on inflation fears fueled by oil; US-Iran developments are in focus
As investors sought clarity about the stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks, gold fell in choppy trading on Thursday. As of 0215 GMT, spot gold was down 0.7% to $4,705.09 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell 0.6% to $4722.10. Brent crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel despite a larger than expected gasoline and distillate stock draw in the United States. Also, the peace talks have not progressed. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that the sight of Brent Oil back at triple-digits keeps inflation worries in the forefront and puts gold on the backfoot today. A rise in crude oil prices can stoke the inflation rate by increasing transportation and production costs. This increases the probability of higher interest rates. Gold is considered an inflation hedge. However, as interest rates rise, yield-bearing investments become more appealing, and this reduces the appeal of bullion. Iran seizes two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, tightening their grip on this strategic waterway. This comes after U.S. president Donald Trump called off the attacks and there was no sign of peace talks resuming. Trump has maintained the U.S. Navy's blockade of Iran's maritime trade. Iran's parliament leader and top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stated that a complete ceasefire would only make sense if it was lifted. "Investors are worried that this 'ceasefire-plus-blockade' status quo could drag on for months, ?turning a short-term ?spike into a long-term inflationary anchor, which would hurt gold from a yield perspective," said Waterer. A poll of economists revealed that the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to wait at least six months before reducing interest rates in this year, as energy shocks caused by war will reignite inflation. The traders now expect a 23% probability of a Fed rate reduction of 25 basis points in December, down from a 28% chance one week ago. There were two expected reductions in this year's budget before the war. Silver spot fell by 1.4%, to $76.64 an ounce. Platinum dropped 1.3%, to $2,048.25. Palladium, at $1,529.25, was down 1%. (Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signss bill to prohibit DEI in local government
The Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has signed a law on Wednesday that prohibits local government in his state from promoting and?funding?diversity?initiatives. He claims such programs are discriminatory against certain groups, like white men. Republican state leaders in the United States and President Donald Trump’s administration have rallied to oppose diversity, equity and inclusive (DEI). Civil rights activists say DEI practices address historical inequities faced by marginalized groups such as women, the LGBT and racial/ethnic minorities. DeSantis stated on Wednesday that "I think the white males have been discriminated against" by DEI. DeSantis’ office stated that the bill prohibits local government from establishing or maintaining DEI programs or offices. It also provides enforcement mechanisms including 'penalties' for officials who violate this law. Republicans have repressed DEI in state and federal government because they deem diversity programs to be anti-merit, and discriminatory towards groups such as white men and women. Trump signed executive orders that directed the demise of DEI policies in federal agencies, the private sector and government contractors?and subcontractors. Trump has also tried to freeze federal funding for colleges and universities in the DEI dispute. DEI practices include, among other things, training in combating discrimination and addressing pay disparities along racial or gender lines, as well as enhancing recruitment and access to underrepresented ethnic groups. DeSantis signed a bill that prohibits initiatives related to climate changes. His office stated that the law would prevent any new taxes, fees, or penalties associated with carbon emissions. Rights advocates have criticised Republicans for "cracking down" on DEI initiatives, climate initiatives, the rights of transgenders and pro-Palestinian demonstrations against U.S. allies Israel's attack on Gaza. Civil rights groups claim that such actions violate the right to free speech and due process. Republicans claim that their actions are against "woke," far-left, and anti-American ideologies. DeSantis, who took office earlier this month signed a law that gives him and other officials of the state the authority to label groups as terrorist organizations.
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Investors weigh rising costs due to war against increasing supply when evaluating iron ore prices
Iron ore prices were in a narrow range on Thursday as investors weighed the higher costs of the prolonged war with Iran against the prospect of an increasing supply?of this key ingredient for steelmaking. As of 0212 GMT, the?most traded iron ore?contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was little changed. It was trading at 785.5 Yuan ($115.05). As of 0102 GMT, the benchmark May iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was down 0.18% at $107.1 per ton. It reached the highest level since March 30, at $107.5, earlier in the session. Singapore's benchmark has been well above the psychologically important level of $100, for over six weeks. Iran?said that it captured two container vessels on Wednesday, after firing on them as well as another vessel. This casts doubt on the prospects of another round of US and Iran peace talks. Analysts said that the Iran war has caused energy prices to surge, resulting in a rise in freight and input prices. This has helped iron ore prices. The anticipation of rising ore supply has, however, slowed the rise in prices. BHP Group’s?iron ore production in the third quarter exceeded expectations. The company’s resolution of a long-running dispute over a supply contract with China also raised prospects for?potentially higher shipments to China, the world's biggest consumer. Rio Tinto, the world's biggest iron ore supplier, has maintained its forecast for 2026 Pilbara ore sales at 323 to 338 millions?tons, while highlighting potential supply chain risk due to?the Middle East conflict. Coking coal, coke and other steelmaking components rose by 0.43% and 1.03 percent, respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have gained some ground. Rebar gained?0.35%. Hot-rolled coils advanced by 0.68%. Wire rod grew by 0.61%. Stainless steel gained 0.27%.
EIB accelerates 3 billion Euros to ease carbon market concerns
The European Commission announced on Thursday that the European Investment Bank would provide 3 billion euros ($3.5billion) in funding to governments for investments to shield poorer citizens from a future EU carbon market.
The new carbon market in the European Union will set a price on CO2 produced by transport and heating fuels from 2028, to encourage the shift to cleaner vehicles and heating systems.
Poland and the Czech Republic have opposed this policy, claiming that it would increase fuel and heating costs. The EU has already delayed the launch of the policy by one year until '2028 to try to quell the opposition.
The EIB is providing 3 billion euros in funding to EU governments for the purpose of kicking-starting investments that will help people switch to cleaner technologies prior to the CO2 pricing launch. This move is designed to ease these concerns.
After 2028, the EIB will be able to repay its funding through revenues generated from the carbon market.
The European Consumer Organisation, a non-profit organization, has welcomed the initiative to assist consumers and small business invest in electric cars, heat pumps and insulation of drafty homes.
"To hit consumers with higher prices for fuel without alternative options would be a recipe for failure." "Member states must'step up their efforts to shape policies that will benefit consumers," said Robin Loos. BEUC's head of sustainability.
After 19 countries requested this last year, the EU has taken other measures in order to address concerns regarding the new carbon markets, including tighter price controls.
(source: Reuters)