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USDA: US corn stocks are expected to shrink as exports rise.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced on Thursday that corn stocks in the United States will be lower than expected before the next harvest due to higher exports.

Grain traders and farmers worry that tariff disputes between the U.S. president Donald Trump could harm demand for American farm product, even though corn exports are strong this year.

Trump announced on Wednesday he will temporarily lower the hefty tariffs he just imposed against dozens of nations while increasing pressure on China. China is the largest soybean importer in the world, but it hasn't bought as much corn or wheat from America lately.

In a report published monthly, the USDA reduced its estimate of 2024-25 ending corn stocks from 1.54 billion bushels to 1,47 billion bushels. A poll showed that analysts expected 1,51 billion bushels.

The agency increased its export forecast from 2,45 billion bushels to 2,55 billion bushels.

Terry Reilly is a senior agricultural strategist at Marex. He said, "The biggest surprise was the decrease in ending stock."

The USDA's changes helped corn futures reach a high of six weeks at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The agency increased its projections for Mexico's corn imports to a new record of 25 million tons. The increase in corn imports is a sign of Mexico's need for grains, Reilly explained. Mexico, as the largest U.S. corn importer, is struggling with a drought.

He said, "They are not yet out of the woods."

This spring, U.S. growers are expected to plant more corn than in the past 12 years. They will also plant fewer soybeans.

USDA estimates that U.S. corn stocks will reach a 2-year low before the harvest in the fall. The USDA predicts that world corn supplies will fall to the lowest levels in 10 years for 2024-25.

The USDA estimated world corn ending stock at 287.65 millions metric tons. This is down from the 288.94million tons of March, and lower than analysts' expectations for 288.18 tons.

The agency estimated global soy stock at 122.47 millions metric tons. This is up from 121.41 in March, and well above analyst estimates of 122.07 tons.

The USDA estimates U.S. soya bean stocks at 375 millions bushels. This compares to the March estimate of 380 million bushels and analyst's expectations of 379 million bushels.

(source: Reuters)