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China responds to global trade war by imposing sweeping tariffs on U.S. products
China announced an additional 34% tariff on U.S. products on Friday. This is the most significant escalation of a trade conflict with President Donald Trump, which has fueled fears of a worldwide recession and caused a stock market crash. Beijing announced that it had added several U.S. companies to an export control listing and classified others as "unreliable". From Canada to China, nations have prepared retaliation as a trade war escalates after Trump raised U.S. Tariff Barriers to their highest levels in over a century. This led to a drop in the world financial markets. Shigeru Shiba, the Prime Minister of Japan, which is one of the top trading partners with United States, said that tariffs created a national crisis. A plunge in bank shares on Friday sent Tokyo's stock exchange on its way to a worst week for years. JP Morgan, an investment bank, said that it now expects the global economy to enter recession by year's end. This is up from 40%.
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Indian stocks close the week with a decline as IT and commodity shares fall on recession fears
Indian shares closed the week on Friday lower, after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sweeping retaliatory duties that intensified global trade wars and stoked fears of recession. Due to their exposure to U.S. economic growth and commodities, information technology and commodity stocks have led the declines. The Nifty 50 dropped 2.61% this week to 22,904.45 and the BSE Sensex fell 2.65% to $75,364.69. The indexes fell by 1.5% and 1.2% respectively on the day. Indian markets, while Trump's tariffs are higher than expected, were not as affected on Thursday. They were buoyed by the optimism surrounding a lower levy on India, at 26% compared to major emerging economies, giving it a competitive advantage. Aishvarya dadheech, chief executive officer of Fident Asset Management said: "That's more (of) a narrative than reality." Emkay Global Financial Services said that India's relative less impact than other Asian nations is "a thin silver lining on a dark cloud". Dadheech stated that India could not be immune from the negative sentiment or be an exception in a global market sell-off. The IT index fell 9.2% in its largest weekly decline in five years on fears that a possible recession in the U.S. could derail the technology spending recovery. Concerns about global growth caused metals and energy prices to fall 7.5% and 3.8% respectively. The drugmakers have had a turbulent week. Stocks rose on Thursday after the sector was exempted of tariffs. However, the optimism was short lived as Trump threatened to levy "levels not seen before" in tariffs. The pharma-index dropped 4% on the Friday after losing 2.7% over the past week. The mid-cap and smaller-cap indexes fell 2% and 2.6% respectively for the week. HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance both rose 1.3% and 1.50%, respectively, against the trend. They were among the top three gainers on Nifty.
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Trump tariffs and economic uncertainty fuel further settlements between CEOs, activists
Yeti Holdings shares fell in December, and then again in March after President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on China. The company's factories were located in China. Yeti, the Austin-based manufacturer of $300 coolers and travel mugs for $40, faced another problem behind the headlines. According to sources familiar with the discussions, Engaged Capital pushed management to return cash back to shareholders, expand to new geographies and be more transparent to investors. The hedge fund predicted that these changes could help Yeti's shares triple in the next three year. Faced with market volatility and concerns over consumer demand Yeti and Engaged reached a settlement. This ended a potentially messy dispute and lifted the shares by nearly 6% on that day. Yeti declined to comment on the matter. According to a dozen analysts, investors, lawyers and bankers, the peace at Yeti is a part of an increasing trend, as corporations and their activists decide to find common grounds amid the prospect of a tariff battle, mass layoffs in U.S. Government agencies, and the growing threat of a possible recession, which is weighing down on stock prices and clouding business outlooks. Barclays reports that 29 global companies settled their claims in the first three months of this year, a jump of 32% from a similar period last year. Duncan Herrington is a managing partner of consulting firm Jasper Street Partners. He said, "If the uncertainty in the market continues, there will likely be more settlements as fewer disputes are likely to end up in a vote." Another recent settlement was with the cybersecurity company Rapid7, which agreed to add three additional directors. Consumer health company Kenvue settled with Starboard Value. The company is known for household brands like Band-Aid, Tylenol and Tylenol. Bankers and lawyers have been told by corporate chiefs who recently navigated through the Covid-19 pandemic that they should remove distractions such as board fights in order to focus on running their businesses. Lawrence Elbaum is the co-head Vinson & Elkins shareholder activism practice. He said that many companies want to remove risk from their business so they can concentrate on it. "Activists are also suffering because their returns have been hammered, so they want quick settlements." It is true that big board fights continue at U.S. Steel and Phillips 66, as well as Autodesk. This shows it's too early to declare peace in corporate America. Both sides show flexibility and a willingness to reach a settlement. Herrington, of Jasper Street, said that people are now more willing to cooperate. Activists, who used to try to get their founders onto boards, are less adamant about securing a seat on the board for themselves. Bankers and lawyers say that more boards will consider candidates suggested by activist investors if the candidate has deep industry expertise. People familiar with the selection procedure said that Engaged Capital wanted Yeti's product offering to be expanded, so they introduced Arne Arens to management. Arens is now the director of the company. He has clothing industry expertise. Many activists have lost money in the past year, so they are less likely to continue a costly, uncertain battle. "You need to calculate your chances of winning a fight," said Lyndon Park who is the CEO of ICR Shareholder Advisory. If both parties are willing to compromise, then a settlement will not be a loss. (Reporting and editing by Dawn Kopecki, Edward Tobin and Svea Herbst Bayliss)
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Russian seaborne diesel exports fell in March, data shows
LSEG data and market sources showed that the decline in Russian seaborne diesel and gasoline exports was due to unplanned maintenance at local refineries. In January and February, drone attacks targeted Russian refineries owned and operated by Rosneft in Ryazan, Syzran, and Saratov as well as Lukoil Volgograd. The traders said that the fall in oil processing in March was due to the resultant decline in processing. Calculations based on LSEG data and other market sources showed that the total diesel and gasoil exported from Russian ports dropped to 3.8 million metric tonnes, a 5% drop from February. According to shipping data, the principal importers of Russian gasoil and diesel in March were Turkey and Brazil. Exports of diesel and gasoil from Russian ports to Turkey increased last month by 17%, compared to February. Loadings to Brazil also increased on a monthly base, almost by a quarter, to 0.85 millions tons. Shipping data shows that Russia's March exports of diesel and gasoil to African countries dropped by half compared to the previous month, totaling about 0.64 millions tons. Egypt, Morocco Togo and Tunisia were among the largest importers. Near the Cyprus port of Limassol, tankers carrying approximately 335,000 tons Russian diesel are heading for ship-to -ship transfers. The destination of vessels carrying about 250,000 tonnes of diesel loaded in Russian ports is marked "for orders", which means that their discharge points have not been declared or are not known. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Reporting by In Moscow)
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Gold falls 1% as traders focus on the payroll data and tariff risk
The gold price fell 1% on Friday, as investors digested the latest tariffs from U.S. president Donald Trump. Investors then turned their attention to the U.S. Non-farm Payrolls Report for clarification on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies. As of 0901 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.9%, at $3,086.32 per ounce. However, it was still on course for its fifth consecutive weekly gain. U.S. Gold Futures declined 0.4% to $3,107.70. Gold hit a new record at $3167.57 in the previous session before falling more than 2% shortly after. This was due to a wider sell-off caused by Trump's tariffs on imports. It appears that a combination of profit-taking, and the markets are partially responsible for the tariffs announced. Zain Vawda is a market analyst for MarketPulse. He said that a growing consensus amongst analysts in the industry suggests that some countries may be willing to negotiate lower tariffs. This could also be holding back gold's current momentum. Trump announced that he would impose an initial 10% tariff on all imports into the U.S., and increased duties on some of America's largest trading partners. Nitesh Sha, the head of macroeconomic and commodities research for Europe at Wisdom Tree, said that gold could be closer to $3.600 in the first quarter 2026. The non-farm payrolls report for the United States is due at 12:30 GMT. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also be speaking later that day. The NFP jobs report and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech could determine a potential gold recovery. Market analysts are increasingly speculating Powell could strike a more dovish tonality, which would provide support for the markets. Fed Governor Lisa Cook stated that the Fed could take its time to evaluate a highly unsettling environment before moving rates. Gold is a good hedge against inflation and geopolitical unrest, but higher interest rates may dampen its appeal. Spot silver fell 1.6% to $31.38 per ounce, and is headed for its worst weekly performance since December 2023. Palladium fell 0.2% and platinum 1.4%, both headed towards a weekly loss.
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Russian rouble barely changed amid forex turmoil
The Russian rouble was not much changed on Friday against the U.S. Dollar and China's Yuan, amid turmoil in global forex markets due to U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs that triggered a crash in global financial markets. The rouble had remained flat on the OTC market at 84.20 USD by 0910 GMT. The Russian currency has gained about 25% this year against the dollar, mainly on expectations that geopolitical tensions will ease. Following the announcement of tariffs, the dollar index, which measures the currency in relation to a basket of six other major currencies, fell by 1.9% on 2 April, its worst day since 2022. Analysts at BCS Express said that the rouble is immune to global currency fluctuations. "Barriers to cross-border capital flow limit international speculators, while sanctions have cut Russia-U.S. Trade to its lowest level since 1992." The exchange rate of the rouble is therefore not sensitive," they said. The rouble didn't react to the 2% drop in oil prices Friday, as Russia's primary export commodity was set for its worst week in many months due to concerns about the global trade conflict. The rouble also remained flat on the Moscow Stock Exchange at 11,58 against the Chinese Yuan, which is the most commonly traded foreign currency in Russia. (Reporting and editing by Gareth Jones.)
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Gazprom is looking for workers to work on the vast Ust-Luga Gas Complex
RusKhimAlyans is a subsidiary owned by Gazprom. It has announced job openings for its new complex of gas processing in the Baltic Sea Port of Ust-Luga. This was a signal of confidence that the plant would start operating despite the sanctions. Gazprom has a strategy of shifting its focus from production to processing. The complex will include a gas chemical and processing complex. The plant is designed to be able to process 45 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year, as well as 13 million metric tonnes of liquefied gas. It can also produce 3.6 million tones of ethane, and up to 180,000 tons of liquid petroleum gas. This would make it the largest gas processing facility in Russia and among the largest in terms production volume. After the beginning of the Ukrainian war in 2022, Western partners such as Linde, a company that specializes in industrial gases and engineering, abandoned the project, the start of operations was delayed. RusKhimAlyans is embroiled in a legal battle with these companies. They claim billions of dollars as damages. A website for staff recruitment states that the company currently has 170 vacancies. These include a LNG contract manager as well as a logistics specialist and a paperwork expert. Construction of the complex began in 2021. According to Russian government documents the first line for the gas processing plant is scheduled to begin operations in 2026. Russia wants to increase its share in the global LNG market from around a fifth to around a quarter by 2030-2035. However, Western sanctions imposed as a result of the war in Ukraine have complicated this ambition. The United States has imposed sanctions on certain companies that are involved in the development of Ust Luga Liquified Natural Gas Terminal. The United States has included RusKhimAlyans on the list of "Specially Designated Nationals", which blocks the assets and prevents U.S. citizen from dealing with them. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Vladimir Soldatkin)
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After a dry spell, conditions for French crops improve slightly
The conditions of French soft wheat have improved in the week ending March 31. According to FranceAgriMer, the farm office said that the recent dry weather has helped the crops in many areas of the country. Heavy rains in France have delayed planting and stunted early growth. This has raised fears that the harvest will be smaller than last year, when heavy rains caused the crop to be hit by the worst rains since the 1980s. The ratings of soft wheat showed that by March 31 in France, which is the largest producer of soft grain in the European Union (76% were in excellent or good condition, up from 74% one week earlier, and higher than the four-year low of 65% at the same point last year. FranceAgriMer said that 71% of the winter barley was in excellent or good condition. This is up from 70% one week ago, but down from 66% during the same week in 2024. Durum wheat was in very good to good condition 81%, up from 80% one week ago. FranceAgriMer's first estimate of spring barley showed 86% in excellent or good condition, compared to 61% the year before. Reporting by Anna Peverieri in Gdansk, and Alban Kach in Paris. Editing by Jan Harvey & David Goodman.
Sources say that EU countries are considering changing their 2025 gas storage goals.
EU diplomats said that if the changes to the future EU gas storage goals are approved by European Union member countries quickly enough, they could also ease this year's storage requirements.
The EU is negotiating changes in the future obligations of filling gas storage for 2026-2027. This includes swapping out their current binding goal to fill storage by 90% on November 1, for a target to reach that same level at any time between October 1-December 1.
The EU diplomats stated that these changes may also be applicable to the November 1st target for this year, if rules are finalised before then and published.
Gas storage regulations were introduced in the EU in 2022, after Russia cut deliveries due to its invasion of Ukraine. This was done to provide a buffer for winter fuels.
Poland, which currently holds the rotating EU presidency and is responsible for negotiations between its member states, published a document on Wednesday that confirmed planned changes to gas storage regulations would be effective the day following their publication in the EU official journal of law.
The EU hopes to reach a consensus on rules and regulations next week. After that, they will negotiate the final law in conjunction with the European parliament.
One EU diplomat said that it could take several months for the rules to be agreed upon and published as EU law. This would likely mean they would only affect the November filling goal, but not the other goals the countries have in the months prior.
EU has also set gas storage targets for the months of February, May and July. In future years, these targets would be voluntary according to the countries' proposal.
Negotiations are still ongoing and the impact of the 2025 target, as well as other changes that countries may propose to future targets, could change.
The European Commission originally wanted to extend for two years the current system of binding goals that must be achieved by certain dates.
This idea was met with resistance by governments such as Germany, France and The Netherlands. The countries want to loosen the rules due to concerns that the targets will inflate the gas prices because they indicate to the market European buyers need to buy large quantities of fuel within a fixed time frame, giving them an opportunity to manipulate the prices.
In the latest document, it was revealed that member states could deviate up to five percentage points from their obligation to fill storage with gas by 90% in the event of "unfavourable market conditions". (Reporting and editing by Nia William in Brussels, Kate Abnett)
(source: Reuters)