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Adverse weather condition curbs Thai, Chinese rubber output, raising costs to 13-year high

Excessive monsoon rains following a drought in the world's leading rubber producer Thailand and hurricane damage in No. 5 grower China are lowering output of the tyremaking material, dragging down production potential customers and lifting costs to 13year highs.

The output of natural rubber, which is mostly produced in Asia, is anticipated to fall by as much as 4.5% in 2024 to around 14 million metric heaps, estimates from four analysts and traders program.

Expectations of lower output have driven up costs of rubber more than 50% this year, making it one of the top-performing commodities in 2024. The benchmark Osaka agreement hit a. a 13-year high of 419.7 yen ($ 2.81) last week.

Costs of physical rubber have actually risen in tandem with futures. markets, with Thailand's benchmark export-grade block rubber. climbing more than 31% because the start of the year, according to. information from Helixtap Technologies.

Rubber crops usually go through a wintering season of low. production from February to May, before a peak harvesting duration. that lasts up until September.

Nevertheless, scorching temperature levels of around 40 degrees Celsius. ( 104 degrees Fahrenheit) in the very first quarter may have resulted in a. prolonged wintering season, as rubber trees can experience. stunted growth in incredibly hot conditions, said Farah Miller,. founder of rubber-focused information firm Helixtap in Singapore.

The heatwave was followed by heavy rains and flooding in. rubber producing areas in Thailand in recent months.

These changes can dramatically affect the tapping. frequency of rubber trees and general latex production, Miller. said.

As a result, output in Thailand, which represents about. one-third of international production, is expected to decrease by. 10% -15%, according to Helixtap.

With this year's peak harvest season interfered with by an. uncommonly extreme number of rainy days and floods, rubber. crops may have been harmed by leaf illness, said Jom Jacob,. chief analyst at Indian analysis company WhatNext Rubber.

He estimated global rubber production in 2024 would likely. fall short of consumption by 1.2 million metric heaps.

CHINA HIT

Tropical Storm Yagi, Asia's most powerful storm this year, intensified. the supply stress, tearing through the major Chinese producing. region of Hainan and damaging 16,000 hectares of rubber trees,. or 2.1% of China's total rubber area, according to WhatNext. Rubber quotes.

This year's minimized rubber output may be felt well into. 2025, said Vijeth Shetty, senior vice president and global head. of rubber at Olam Agri, as manufacturers generally develop inventories. in the 2nd half of the year before peak need season starts. the next year.

However, that comes against the backdrop of controlled demand. in leading customer China amidst slowing economic development, although. monetary stimulus steps have raised hopes of enhanced. demand.

(source: Reuters)