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QUOTES-Markets react after Trump announces 50% copper tariff
U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he would announce 50% tariffs on copper imports. This sent U.S. Comex Copper Futures to a record-high of more than 12%. The announcement marked the end of a long-running arbitrage that had drew metal from the global markets. Prices fell on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and London Metal Exchange. Here is the reaction of analysts and smelters from Asia. GOLDMAN SACHES HAS ANALYSTS As with previous tariffs this higher initial rate of tariff could be used to negotiate, then concessions or exemptions can follow. We expect an increase in shipments to the U.S. over the next few weeks due to the increased incentive for companies to get ahead of the tariff implementation. We maintain our Dec-25 LME Copper Price Forecast at $9,700. However, we now see a lower risk of the price rising above $10,000 in the 3Q. ANALYSTS AT CITI Our base case now is a headline Section 232 Copper Import Levy of 50%. We adjust our expectations that the COMEX/LME arb will be priced at 25-35% LME, or $2,300 - $3300/t compared to 15-20% previously. The drawdown of excess copper based in the United States could completely replace the imports of refined copper from the United States for the rest of 2025. ZHAO YONGCHENG ANALYST BENCHMARK MINERAL INTELLIGENCE The SHFE copper prices are under pressure at the moment, but will rebound once the U.S. tariffs on copper are finalized. Fundamentals remain tight in the near-term. The widening differential in price between COMEX & LME will encourage trading arbitrage, preventing the price from dropping more. Overall, the downside risk is higher in near-term." MATT HUANG ANALYST, BRANDS FINANCIAL "In the short term, the spot metal market will get a boost: Deliverable metals from South America are in high demand, driving premiums up. "Chinese holders of physical copper will still be able to rush shipments into the U.S. but the arrivals following them are likely to sit on the sidelines and let premiums slide back." Once the tariff is in place, the 'vacuum of demand' from the U.S. will diminish, and the outlook for LME/SHFE will turn negative. MARCUS GARVEY HEAD OF COMMODITIES STRATEGY MACQUARIE The loss of an arbitrageable physical price difference between CME-LME copper will result in a fall in U.S. import demand from the current 200kt/mth to something closer 30kt/mth. This should continue for several months, as excess inventories are reduced in the U.S. The CME-LME spread would not be required to incentivise marginal spot flows because of the surplus inventories in the U.S. MICHAEL WU ANALYST SHANGHAI METAL MARKET There is little time left before the deadline for shipments to the U.S., so shipments from Latin America may be the only ones that can make it." A CHINESE SMELTER MANAGER After U.S. tariffs are implemented, copper will flow into China and other countries. Prices will then return to normal fundamentals.
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Kommersant reports that 'Fortress Russia has confiscated 50 billion dollars in assets over the past three years'
The Kommersant newspaper reported that Russia confiscated assets valued at 3.9 trillion Russian roubles (or around $50 billion based on current exchange rates) over the last three years. This highlights the extent of the transformation to a "fortress Russia' economic model. Since Russia's troops entered Ukraine in February 20, 2022, foreign companies have faced the threat of state seizing their assets. However, Moscow has been increasingly focused on domestic assets, citing domestic security and strategic stability. Kommersant, a respected newspaper in Russia, stated that the size of asset seizures calculated by NSP Law Firm shows how Russia has moved from a relatively "open" economy to a fortress model. Kommersant reported that the law firm advised clients to eliminate any weak points in their business, such as second passports and economic ties to countries Russia considers "unfriendly", which is to say, all of Western Europe. Kommersant also said that owners should consider doing business with partners who are state-owned. Kommersant reported that assets worth 1.54 trillion rubles were seized in accordance with the law on strategic corporations. Another 1.07 trillion roubles was seized due to allegations of corruption, 385 billion on suspected privatisation violations, and 621,5 billion roubles for claims of poor management. In the 1990s, the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 sparked hopes that Russia would become a free-market economy. However, widespread corruption, economic turmoil, and crime undermined the confidence in democratic capitalism. In his first eight-year tenure, President Vladimir Putin supported economic freedoms and targeted some oligarchs. He also presided over significant growth in the economy, which grew to $1.8 trillion by 2008, from $200 billion. According to the International Monetary Fund, between 2008 and 2022, the economy reached $2.3 trillion. However, Western sanctions were a major factor after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. According to IMF data, the nominal dollar value of the Russian economy in 2024 is only $2.2 trillion.
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Kongsberg orders increase by 5% as the company expands its defence capacity to meet demand
The Norwegian defence manufacturer Kongsberg Gruppen announced on Wednesday that it had received more orders for the second quarter 2025, which reflects an increase in military spending by European nations. Kongsberg has customers from the defence, aerospace and maritime industries. It also serves energy, fishing, and the energy industry. Geir Haiy, CEO of the company, said in a press release that "there is a need to enhance defence capabilities and we are expanding capacity to meet growing demand." In response to Russia's invasion in Ukraine, and the threat by President Donald Trump to reduce military support to the region, many European nations have committed to increase their defence budgets significantly. Haoy stated that the company was experiencing record market activity. In the third quarter, 54% of orders were received by its Defence & Aerospace division. Kongsberg stated that there was a high level of activity in relation to the delivery of subsea technologies and solutions. The company's earnings before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), which is the quarterly profit before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortisation, rose by 28% to 2,33 billion Norwegian crowns. LSEG polled five analysts who expected an average of 2.25 billion Norwegian crowns. Orders and profits for the group also soared in the first quarter, boosted by Europe’s defence spending. $1 = 10.0974 Norwegian crowns (Reporting and editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak, Gdansk)
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Copper prices fall outside US after Trump's 50% tariff
The London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a drop in copper prices on Wednesday, as the announcement of U.S. tariffs on copper signaled the end of a long-running arbitrage trade which had pulled the metal from the global markets. U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he would announce 50% tariffs on copper. U.S. Comex Copper futures rose more than 12%, reaching a new record high. The U.S. Commerce Department's Howard Lutnick announced shortly after that the copper tariffs were likely to be implemented by the end or August 1 of this year. The announcement was like a thunderous boom in the middle night. A 50% tariff is higher than expected. Since the announcement of the tariff investigation in February, traders from around the world have sent copper to the U.S. as they anticipated higher prices. Comex inventories have reached their highest level since last year. The days of this trade are numbered, given the short time left to move the copper before the deadline. This could potentially lead to a release of supply from outside the U.S. Prices reflected a shift in the market. In the wake of a Comex record, the LME three-month contract for copper fell by 1.2%, to $9,675 a metric ton, at 0346 GMT. The most traded copper contract on SHFE also dropped 1.1%, to 78.580 yuan (10,944.29) per ton. Michael Wu, an analyst for copper at the Shanghai Metals Market said that there are few buyers in Asia who want to deliver copper to the U.S. given the short time left before the deadline. He added that the only shipments likely to meet the deadline will be those from Latin America. LME nickel dropped 0.5% to $14,965 per ton. Lead fell 0.6% to $2,000, while tin eased by 0.2% to $33,370. Zinc was down 0.4% to $2709 and aluminium was down 0.5% to $2574. SHFE nickel dropped 1.4% to 118.960 yuan per ton. Lead gained 0.5% at 17,195 yuan. Zinc was unchanged at 22,010, aluminium rose 0.2% to 20.525 yuan and tin increased 0.2% to 264.880 yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories.
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A flash flood in a New Mexico resort town traps many in their homes and vehicles
A state official reported that flash flooding in New Mexico caused by monsoon rains trapped dozens in their homes and vehicles around Ruidoso, a mountain resort village. The floods also swept an entire home away. The house was ripped apart from its foundations and careened through the brown, muddy water of the flood-engorged Rio Ruidoso. It smashed trees on the way. "I have seen the video." Danielle Silva, spokesperson for New Mexico Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management said: "We don't know who was inside the house." No immediate reports of death or injury from Tuesday's floodwaters have been confirmed. Silva reported that emergency teams, pre-positioned in Ruidoso by local law enforcement, and the National Guard, conducted at least 85 rapid-water rescues, including many victims who had been stranded by flooding in their homes and cars. Silva reported that the river rose quickly to a record-breaking 20.24 feet (6.22 metres) during the flood of late afternoon. As the floodwaters started to recede, the authorities began searching through the debris for survivors. She said that the intensity of the debris flow had been heightened by the charred landscape that was left by the wildfires that swept through the area in June last year, and the subsequent flooding that eroded soil. Ruidoso, a popular ski resort and summer getaway in south-central New Mexico's Sierra Blanca range is located about 115 miles south of Albuquerque. The latest flooding occurred in Texas Hill Country four days after a flash flood caused by torrential rainfall along the Guadalupe River devastated a large area of Texas Hill Country. At least 109 people were killed and scores more are still missing. Reporting by Steve Gorman, Los Angeles; editing by Michael Perry
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Investors await clarity on tariffs, which has led to a drop in oil prices from their two-week highs
The oil prices fell on Wednesday, after reaching two-week highs the previous day. Investors were waiting for new developments regarding U.S. Tariffs and the expectation of rising crude stocks in the United States. Brent crude futures fell 7 cents or 0.1% to $70.08 per barrel at 0400 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 8 cents or 0.1% to $68.25 per barrel. The latest delay in tariffs by U.S. president Donald Trump gave some hope to the major trading partners Japan, South Korea, and the European Union, that deals could be reached to reduce duties. However, it left some smaller exporters, such as South Africa, confused and without clarity about the way forward. Trump has pushed the previous deadline of Wednesday back to August 1. He declared on Tuesday that "no extensions will be granted." Trump said he will impose a tariff of 50% on imported copper, and introduce levies that have been threatened for years on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. This will intensify a trade conflict that has roiled markets around the world. Priyanka Sackdeva, a senior analyst at Phillip Nova, said: "Investors constantly deal with 'tariff headlines' and their potential impact on global trade." "... "... While there was a strong demand for travel during the U.S. holiday on July 4, industry data showed that crude inventories in the U.S. could have increased by around 7.1m barrels. Fuel products' stock levels were also lower. In a note to clients, ING analysts said that the API numbers overnight were negative for oil. They added that "changes made in refined products have been more positive". The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release official data at 1430 GMT today. The Energy Information Administration said in its monthly report on Tuesday that the U.S. would produce less oil than expected in 2025 due to the lower oil prices this year. In its report on short-term energy outlook, the EIA stated that it expects to see 13.37 million barrels of oil produced per day by 2025. This is a decrease from last month's prediction of 13.42 millions bpd.
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Scientists estimate that the European heatwave has caused 2300 deaths.
According to a rapid analysis of the scientific literature published on Wednesday, around 2,300 people in 12 European cities died from heat-related causes during the severe heatwave which ended last week. The study focused on the 10 days ending July 2 when temperatures in large parts of Western Europe reached 40 degrees Celsius. According to a study by Imperial College London and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, of the estimated 2,300 deaths during this time period, 1,500 were linked to climate changes, which caused the heatwave to be more severe. Climate change has made the world significantly hotter, making it more dangerous, said Dr Ben Clarke. He is a researcher from Imperial College London. Researchers found that climate change has increased temperatures in 12 cities, including Barcelona, Madrid and London, by as much as 4 degrees Celsius. Researchers used epidemiological models to estimate death rates. This includes deaths that were caused by heat, as well as deaths in which pre-existing conditions were exacerbated. Scientists said that they used peer reviewed methods to quickly estimate the death toll because most heat related deaths are not reported officially and some governments don't release this data. In a bulletin published on Wednesday, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service stated that June 2018 was the third hottest month on record for the planet, after the same months in 2024, and 2023. Copernicus reported that Western Europe had its warmest month on record in June. Much of the region experienced "very strong heat-stress" conditions, defined as temperatures of 38 degrees Celsius and above. Samantha Burgess is the strategic lead at Copernicus for climate. She said: "Heatwaves will become more intense, frequent and affect more people in Europe as a result of global warming." According to new research from European health institutions, researchers in 2023 reported that up to 61,000 people could have died during Europe's scorching heatwaves of 2022. This suggests the countries' efforts in heat preparedness are failing fatally. Over time, the average temperature of the Earth has risen due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These emissions are mainly caused by the burning fossil fuels. The increase in the baseline temperature means that temperatures can soar higher during a heatwave.
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Rem Offshore's Zero-Emission Subsea Construction Vessel Hits Water (Video)
Norwegian shipowner Rem Offshore has launched the hull for its dual-fuel methanol energy subsea construction vessel (ESCV) Rem Pioneer in Vietnam, months ahead of schedule.The launch ceremony was held on June 27 at Song Cam shipyard in Vietnam.According to the company, hull construction will continue for a while, and outfitting will begin in the autumn at Myklebust Verft.Rem Pioneer ESCV will be delivered in 2026 and will be the first of its kind that can perform heavy construction work in both offshore wind and subsea with net zero emissions.The newbuild uses a number of solutions where energy consumption is almost halved compared to comparable tonnage in today’s market, as well as meeting future requirements for zero emissions from end to end, according to the company.The vessel will be equipped with dual-fuel methanol engines in combination with battery packs.All offshore lifting equipment, including the 250 T crane, is electric and regenerates power to the batteries.The working deck is over 1,400 m2, and it is also prepared for the installation of an offshore gangway for use in offshore wind.Rem Pioneer will be able to accommodates 120 persons.
Brazil joins race to loosen up China's grip on rare earths market
Mining huge Brazil has big aspirations to build an unusual earths industry as Western economies press to secure the metals needed for magnets utilized in green energy and defence and break China's. dominance of the supply chain.
Working to its benefit are low labour costs, clean energy,. established policies and distance to end markets, consisting of. Latin America's first magnet plant which would offer an all set. buyer for the metals.
But low unusual earths prices, technical challenges and anxious. loan providers present difficulties to the Latin American country's want to. propel itself into the world's top five uncommon earths producers.
The speed at which Brazil's uncommon earths projects come. together will be a test for how successful the West may be at. building a new advanced industry almost from scratch to break. China's grip.
Brazil holds the world's third-largest uncommon earth reserves. The nation's very first rare earths mine, Serre Verde, began. business production this year.
Output is set to grow, analysts, mining CEOs and investors. state, supported by Western federal government rewards that are also. speeding up a worldwide unusual earths refining and processing. industry.
Brazil as a source of possible rare earths is a very. amazing proposition due to the fact that there have been some very. meaningful discoveries made in the previous couple of years, stated. Daniel Morgan of Barrenjoey investment bank in Sydney.
I do believe outside of China, Brazil's projects are one of the most. financial greenfield projects readily available.
The U.S. and its allies, almost entirely dependent on China. for uncommon earths metals and magnets, set out to construct a different. supply chain by 2027 after deliveries were interfered with throughout the. COVID-19 pandemic early this years.
LONG RUN
China produced 240,000 metric lots of rare earths in 2015,. more than five times the next most significant producer, the United. States, according to U.S. Geological Survey data. It processes. around 90% of the worldwide supply of unusual earths into permanent. magnets used in whatever from wind turbines to electrical. cars and rockets.
For nations like Australia, Vietnam and Brazil wanting to. catch up, development is slow. Serra Verde has taken 15 years to. enter into production. It is anticipated to produce 5,000 tons as soon as. ramped up and could double output by 2030, its CEO said.
Serra Verde and Brazil have considerable competitive. advantages that could underpin the development of a globally. considerable uncommon earths industry over the long term, Serra. Verde CEO Thras Moraitis told .
Those consist of attractive geology, access to hydropower,. developed policies and a knowledgeable labor force, he said.
It is still a nascent sector which will need continued. assistance to establish itself in a highly competitive market. Secret. processing innovations are controlled by a small number of. gamers, he stated.
Brazil might have 2 or 3 more rare earths mines by. 2030, possibly surpassing Australia's current annual output,. said Reg Spencer, an expert at broker Canaccord.
BASEMENT RATES
One significant barrier is a 70% downturn in uncommon earths costs over. the previous two years that has made it challenging for companies to. raise funds for mines and processing.
Getting money at the moment is tough, Nick Holthouse,. chief executive of Australian-listed developer Meteoric. Resources, told .
Meteoric is targeting an investment choice in late 2025. for its Caldeira job in Brazil's Minas Gerais state which. will produce light and heavy uncommon earths.
In March, the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) revealed. interest in offering Meteoric as much as $250 million for the. task. The company also has an initial offer to provide rare. earth oxides to a separation plant in Estonia run by. Toronto-listed Neo Efficiency Materials.
Brazilian Uncommon Earths, too, is in the early stages. of establishing a large rare earths deposit in the country's. northeast, backed by Australia's richest person, Gina Rinehart.
Its CEO, Bernardo Da Veiga, highlighted Brazil's low. running expenses as a benefit over rivals like Australia,. where he said a truck driver at an iron ore mine would earn up. to A$ 200,000 ($ 133,200) a year plus food and lodging.
That exact same truck motorist in Brazil, doing the very same job, makes. like $15,000 a year and he trips his bike to work and brings his. lunch. There's simply no comparison.
INTRICACIES
While labour is cheap, designers deal with technical hurdles. Unlike in China, many Western business are still perfecting the. intricate procedures for producing unusual earth metals, a costly. obstacle that has actually stalled tasks for years.
To spur developments, the Brazilian federal government launched a 1. billion reais ($ 194.53 million) fund in February to fund. strategic minerals jobs, consisting of unusual earths.
It also wants to develop an industry for changing these. minerals into alloys for batteries, wind turbines and electrical. motors, the Ministry of Mines and Energy stated in a statement.
The obstacle is to promote production and build. partnerships to promote component separation technologies and. supply chain advancement, the ministry said. It is likewise looking. into unusual earths recycling.
Among business talking to the government about recycling. technology is Australia's Ionic Rare Earths, which has. a pilot recycling plant in Belfast and a tie up with Brazilian. developer Viridis Mining and Minerals, its CEO Tim. Harrison said.
Brazil is likewise developing a magnet factory due to start. operating later this year as an evidence of idea, Flavio Roscoe,. president of Minas Gerais' state Federation of Industries. ( FIEMG) stated.
Our objective is to be a developer, a multiplyer of this. innovation, Roscoe said.
Brazil has the chance to be the world's option to. China.
(source: Reuters)