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Investors assess Venezuela's upheaval by assessing the oil price, stocks and bonds.
On Monday, oil prices fell and bonds yields increased as investors assessed the possible repercussions from the U.S. Capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. STOXX, a benchmark index for Europe's largest companies, rose 0.5%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan climbed 1.3% to a new record high. U.S. Futures like S&P 500 e-minis also gained 0.2% before a week packed with economic data. U.S. president Donald Trump announced that after the events of the weekend in Venezuela, he would temporarily take control of the South American country. He also said that he might order another strike "if Venezuela doesn't cooperate" with U.S. efforts for it to open its oil industry and end drug trafficking. He also threatened to take'military action' in Colombia and Mexico. Neil Shearing, Capital Economics, said that the removal of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro from office by the U.S. would not have any significant economic effects on the global economy in the near future. But its geopolitical and political ramifications are sure to reverberate. The oil prices fluctuated as the OPEC+ decision to maintain output remained unchanged was countered by concerns about market disruptions due to events in Venezuela, which produces oil. Brent crude futures last fell 0.8% at $60.26 per barrel. After the U.S. strikes on Syria, new concerns about geopolitical risk sparked by the U.S. military strike, defence stocks led to?gains' in Europe. The index of defense shares rose by 2.7%, reaching its highest level in two months. Vasu Menon, OCBC Singapore, said: "Given that the Venezuelan events over the weekend were unexpected, it is yet to be seen if the Trump administration wants more regime changes." "Strategic calculations are taking place against a backdrop of mid-term elections, and the developments are unpredictable." This uncertainty may keep oil prices high. "A more volatile geopolitical climate may boost haven assets such as precious metals." US MILITARY MEASURES IMPLEMENT SAFE-HAVEN REQUEST Gold prices rose on Monday, with spot price up 2.33% to $4,430 per ounce. However, they are still below the record high set last year of $4,549.71. The yield on Germany's 10-year Bund, the benchmark for the eurozone, was also essentially unchanged at 2.893%. It had risen by 3 basis points in the previous week. The yield on U.S. 10 year?Treasury Bonds held steady at 4,173%. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures dollar strength against six different currencies, rose 0.13% to 98.685 at the end of last day, extending recent gains for a sixth straight day. The dollar was unchanged against the yen at 156.79yen. Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, said that after increasing rates by 25 basis points last month to 0.75%, they will continue to do so if economic and prices developments are in line with their forecast. Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $92,327.40. Ether was up 0.4% to $3,154.62. (Reporting and editing by David Gooding, Gregor Stuart Hunter, and Lawrence White)
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Venezuela's defaulted government bonds soar after US capture Maduro
Venezuela's defaulted government bonds surged Monday after the surprise capture of President Nicolas Maduro by?U.S. Capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Maduro was detained and removed to the U.S. after a military "raid" in Caracas on Saturday. This has fueled expectations that this will be one of largest and most complex sovereign debt restructurings ever. Analysts predict that the bond prices issued by Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), the state oil company of Venezuela, will rise up to 8 cents per dollar or 20% in early European trading. JPMorgan analysts wrote in a client note that Venezuela and PDVSA bonds had roughly doubled their price over the course of 2025. However, they still expect a strong rebound -- up to 10 points -- when Monday's trading session begins. Venezuela's sovereign debts, which defaulted in 2017, had the best performance in the world in 2018. Their price nearly doubled as U.S. president Donald Trump increased military pressure against Maduro. Data from Tradeweb showed that Monday's move pushed Venezuela's bond 2031 to almost 40 cents per dollar. Most of the other bonds in the country were up between 35 and 38 cents, and PDVSA's debt was over 6 cents more at almost 30 cents. Venezuela's government and state oil company PDVSA have defaulted on bonds that had a face-value of $60 billion. Analysts estimate that the total external debt, which includes other PDVSA obligations as well as bilateral loans, arbitration awards and other PDVSA obligations is between $150 billion and $170 billion depending on how interest accrued and court judgements are counted. Reporting by Marc Jones, Karin Strohecker and Alison Williams.
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European stocks rise as defense shares lead after Venezuela shock
European stocks rose on Monday as investors bought up defense stocks following the U.S. military strikes against Venezuela. This sparked new 'geopolitical' concerns. The STOXX 600 pan-European index was 0.3% higher by 0810 GMT. As investors return from their New Year holidays, trading volumes should normalize. Defense?index grew by 2.7%, reaching its highest level in two months. The technology and basic resources also rose by 2.1% and 2% respectively. Investors continue to monitor the impact of the 'dramatic capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas?Maduro over the weekend by U.S. forces. Donald Trump announced on Saturday that he would temporarily place Venezuela under American control. Investors also focus on central banks and watch incoming data for clues as to how quickly rates could be cut. Glencore, Rio Tinto, and Anglo American all saw their profits rise on the back of higher copper costs. ASML shares, the world's largest?supplier? of computer chip-making equipment?, increased?3.9%. Analysts at brokerage Bernstein upgraded ASML's stock from "market perform" to "outperform", and raised the price target to 1,300 euros, from 800 euros. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahaniwala in Bengaluru, with Medha Singh from Bengaluru)
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Local media reports that Indonesian mines can produce 25% of the proposed output for 2026 in Q1, while applications are being assessed.
According to a letter from the Indonesian mining ministry, miners can produce 25 percent of the output they plan for '2026 in the first three months while the government processes the annual production quotas, according to a report by a local media outlet, Bisnis.com, on Monday. To determine?how much production they can produce each year, all miners in Indonesia, which is rich in minerals, are required to submit a RKAB (annual production plan) to the government. Indonesia has reduced the validity of RKABs to one year, starting in 2026. The government has also ordered that miners reapply for the quotas issued for 2026 and 207. According to regulations published by the ministerial in October, during the approval process for the new quota, the miners can refer to the previously approved quota of 2026 until the end March 2026 when deciding how much they will produce. Nickel miner Vale Indonesia announced on Friday that they were suspending their mining activities because the RKAB was not yet approved. Yuliot Tanjung, deputy mining minister, said that approvals are "currently being consolidated" and the nickel output quota will be adjusted to match demand from domestic smelters. Mining Minister?Bahlil?Lahadalia said that the government would cut mining output quotas in order to boost prices. This includes coal prices which have been stagnant. (Reporting and editing by Fransiska Nanangoy, Bernadette Cristina Munthe)
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China's Iron Ore Starts New Year Higher on Strong Demand and Tight Supplies
China's Iron Ore Futures rose in the first trading session of the New Year on Monday. Strong?demand and supply constraints supported the rise. The May contract for iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange gained 7.5 Yuan or 0.95% to 797 Yuan ($114.16). After the New Year's?holiday, Chinese markets resumed their trading. The benchmark iron ore contract for February on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.29% at $105.65 per ton by 0704 GMT. Steelmakers are restocking iron ore ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, which is in February. Tight domestic supplies also support prices. According to a report from the?Shanghai Metals Market, several mines have limited production due to environmental measures. Mysteel, a consultancy, reported that stocks of five major carbon products held by Chinese?mills dropped 1.1% on a weekly basis to 3.81 millions tonnes between December 26 and 31. The DCE also saw a decline in other steelmaking ingredients, including coke and?coking?coal. The SHFE steel benchmarks were mixed. Rebar fell by 0.74%; hot-rolled coils dropped by 0.79%, and stainless steel was down 0.23%. Wire rod, meanwhile, gained 4.93%.
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Chinese, South Korean companies sign nine cooperation agreements
Chinese and South Korean firms signed nine agreements of cooperation,?authorities announced on Monday. This was during a visit to Beijing by South Korean 'President Xi Jinping with Chinese President Lee Jae Myung, their second encounter in only two months. Lee's first visit to China is his first since taking office in June. It comes at a time of escalating global tensions following the North Korean launch of ballistic missiles, and the U.S. strike on Venezuela. Analysts say that the unusually short time between Xi's and Lee's meeting shows 'China's keen desire to boost economic collaboration and tourism, as its relationship with Japan has sunk 'to its lowest point for years'. The South Korean Trade Ministry announced nine agreements on Monday, stating that?Alibaba International and South Korean retailer Shinsegae are among the companies who signed deals. Lee arrived in South Korea for his four-day visit on Sunday. He was accompanied by a delegation of over 200 business leaders, including Samsung Electronics Chairman 'Jay Y. Lee', SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won and Hyundai Motor Group Executive Chairman Euisun Chung. Lee wants to promote peace on Korean Peninsula. However, his visit to Beijing coincides with the North Korean test firing hypersonic missiles, and Kim Jong Un's citing of Pyongyang needing to maintain a strong nuclear deterrent. Lee stated that South Korea and China should expand their economic cooperation on artificial intelligence and also in consumer products such as beauty, household goods, food, and cultural content like movies, music and games. Kang Hoon -sik, South Korean Chief of Staff to the President, said that Beijing is unlikely to lift their unofficial ban against Korean culture any time soon. China's state-run broadcaster CCTV reported that Lee's visit will include a discussion on supply chain investments, digital economies, and cultural exchanges. As China and Japan negotiate a diplomatic spat, South Korea's and Beijing’s relations have warmed. Beijing was "incensed" when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takayichi suggested, in November, that Tokyo could take military actions if Beijing attacked Taiwan. Taiwan rejects China's claim that the island is itss.
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Gold prices surge as demand for safe-havens increases due to the US arrest of Venezuela's president
Gold and other precious metals prices rose on Monday, following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the United States over the weekend, which exacerbated geopolitical tensions. Gold spot rose by 2.2% at 0742 GMT to $4,424.17 an ounce. This is a new weekly high. U.S. Gold Futures for Delivery in February rose 2.4% to $4434.20. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said that kidnapping a foreign leader of state leads to a high degree of uncertainty. Gold and silver are seen as a good hedge against this. The U.S. captured Maduro on?Saturday in an attack that Washington's most controversial Latin American intervention since the?invasion of Panama 37 year ago. Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who has been appointed interim leader, said that Maduro "remains" president. The 'bullion's' 64% gain last year was the biggest since 1979. This is due to geopolitical tensions combined with central bank purchases, interest rate reductions and inflows into ETFs. The record high was $4,549.71, which occurred on December 26, 2025. Anna Paulson, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said on Saturday further rate reductions could be a long way off following an active campaign of ease last year. Investors still expect at least two Fed rate reductions this year. Waterer said that investors will be looking at the non-farm payroll figures, due on Friday, to get more clues about potential Fed rate cuts. Non-yielding investments tend to perform well when interest rates are low and there is uncertainty in the geopolitical or economic arena. After hitting an all time high of $83.62 per ounce on December 29, spot silver rose 3.9% to $75.50. The metal finished the year with a record 147% increase. Silver's price soared?to new highs last year due to its designation as an important U.S. Mineral and supply constraints due to?increased industrial and investment demands. After reaching a record high of $2.478.50 per ounce on Monday, spot platinum increased 3.9% to reach $2,226.24 an ounce. Early Asia hours saw it rise more than 5% to a new high. Palladium climbed 1.6% to $1,664.40 per ounce.
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India's palm oil imports in December fell to an 8-month low due to weak demand
Five dealers report that India's palm oils imports dropped to an 8-month low in the month of December. This was due to a weaker winter season and refiners increasing their purchases of competing oils like soyoil or sunflower oil. Reduced palm oil imports by?India, which is the world's biggest buyer of vegetable oil, could increase inventories in top producing countries Indonesia and Malaysia. This would weigh on benchmark Malaysian Palm Oil Futures while supporting U.S. Soyoil Futures. According to dealers, palm oil imports dropped 20% in December, to 507,000 tons, the lowest level since April 2025. Dealer estimates show that soyoil exports jumped 37%, to 508,000 tonnes, while sunflower oil imports more-than-doubled, to 350,000 tons. Estimates show that India's total edible oil imports rose by 19% in December compared to the previous month, reaching a new three-month record of 1,37 million?tons. This was due to an increase in soyoil imports and sunflower oil. They said that the import numbers exclude duty-free shipments?that arrived via land border from Nepal. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India said that India imported approximately 632,000 tonnes of palm oil per month in the marketing year ending October 2025. It plans to publish its December data by mid-January. The demand for palm oil has remained low due to the winter season and increased availability of domestic edible oil such as cottonseed, groundnut, and soya oil. India's palm?imports are usually moderated during winter, when the tropical oil becomes solidified at lower temperatures. This limits its use in the northern parts of the country. India imports a lot of palm oil, mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia. It also imports sunflower oil and soyoil from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine. Sandeep Bajoria is the chief executive officer of Sunvin Group. A vegetable oil brokerage firm and consultancy.
German federal government considers stopping briefly supply chain law for 2 years, states minister
The German federal government is thinking about pausing the country's supply chain due diligence law for 2 years to ease the administrative problem on business up until a European instruction works, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Friday.
Germany's supply chain act, which took effect in January 2023, requires companies with more than 1,000 personnel to carry out due diligence procedures to keep track of providers' human rights and environmental management standards.
German business have actually been having a hard time to satisfy the cost and administrative problem of the law, stating it was damaging their international competitiveness.
A similar European Business Sustainability Due Diligence Instruction (CSDDD) was approved by the EU parliament in April and is due to be rolled out in 2026.
Germany will need to redraft its own supply chain law as soon as the European law enters impact.
We can pause it. That would be the very best thing. I think that is absolutely practical, Habeck said at an event for family-run businesses, including that suspending the nationwide law could be a. liberating relocation for business.
A decision on the concern is anticipated in 2 to 3. weeks, he included.
Habeck's proposal received mixed responses from the. government union partners.
The parliamentary group of the Social Democrats celebration. declined the idea, adding his declaration was very. unexpected.
Does a leading Green politician seriously wish to sacrifice. human rights in order to curry favour with household companies?,. SPD labour policy lawmaker Martin Rosemann informed .
FDP lawmaker Carl-Julius Cronenberg welcomed Habeck's. suggestion, stating suspending the law would produce breathing. space for small and medium-sized businesses needed in. financially difficult times.
(source: Reuters)