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Larger planted area must enhance Australia's wheat harvest, Rabobank says

Australia's 2024/25 wheat harvest should be somewhat larger than in 2015's after an increase in planted area, but barley and canola output will likely fall, experts at Rabobank said on Monday.

Higher wheat production would add to international supply at a time when crop losses in Russia have pressed benchmark Chicago wheat futures to 10-month highs.

Australia is a significant exporter of wheat, barley and canola.

The nation ought to gather 27.4 million metric tons of wheat in the present 2024/25 cropping season, up 5.7% from 2023/24, 10 million lots of barley, down 7.2% from 2023/24, and 5 million tons of canola, down 11.4% from 2023/24, Rabobank stated.

That would suggest wheat and canola harvests approximately in line with the average of the last 5 years, however barley around 2 million loads listed below that average.

As planting wraps up, Australia's eastern cropping areas have abundant moisture but the west, south and southeast have been drier.

The bank said it presumed a mid-to-late season healing for dry areas as a La Nina weather event led to increased rains.

La Nina generally brings wetter weather condition to eastern Australia, and lots of forecasters forecast one will emerge later on in the year.

Australia's location planted to wheat is set to increase by 961,000 hectares to 13.48 million hectares (33.3 million acres), with barley location increasing by 210,000 hectares to 4.33 million hectares and canola location diminishing by 450,000 hectares to 3.11 million hectares, Rabobank stated.

Those wheat and canola areas are 5% to 7% greater than the five-year average, while barley is around 10% lower, it said.

Western Australia's cropping area will increase despite its dry start, according to the bank, while Queensland's area must rise by nearly one-third, with the amount of land planted to wheat growing to its biggest on record.

The majority of the nation's dry cropping areas got rain in the recently, which analysts said might include 1 million heaps to the wheat harvest.

Australia's agriculture ministry is due to issue a quarterly crop report with its expectations for production on Tuesday.

(source: Reuters)