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As trade war continues to roil markets, stocks and the dollar are once again battered.
Global stocks dropped on Friday, and the dollar fell after a week that was marked by a trade war escalating to a full-blown conflict and a selloff in the bond market which has sparked fears of a recession and shaken the confidence of U.S. assets. Investors sought out other safe assets. The euro rose 1.7% to $1.13855 - a level not seen since February 2022 - and gold, which is seen as a secure asset in times of crisis, reached another record high. Investors are worried about the Sino-U.S. Trade War after U.S. president Donald Trump raised tariffs on Chinese Imports to 145%. China has responded by increasing its tariffs against the U.S. for each Trump increase. This has raised fears that Beijing could raise duties beyond the current 84%. LSEG data show that the selloff of U.S. Treasuries accelerated during Asian hours. The 10-year note yield rose to 4.45% this week, a gain of about 45 basis points, which is the largest increase since 2001. There's a clear exodus of U.S. assets. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. He said that a falling currency and bond markets are never a positive sign. This goes beyond a slowdown in growth and trade uncertainty. In Europe, the STOXX 600 fell nearly 1% in the morning and is expected to drop 1.7% this week. This will be one of the most volatile weeks on record. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei fell 4.3% for the day while stocks in South Korea dropped nearly 1%. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, tried to reassure skeptics at a cabinet meeting held on Thursday by telling them that over 75 countries were interested in starting trade negotiations. Trump expressed his own hope for a deal to be reached with China, which is the world's second largest economy. James Athey said that the outlook is still clouded by more uncertainty today than it was a month earlier. There are so many questions that remain unanswered. U.S. Futures for the S&P 500 & Nasdaq were mostly unchanged on the day. However, trading was highly erratic. Both had traded as low as 2% before rallying up to 1.6%. After Trump's decision to temporarily lower tariffs for many countries on Wednesday, the anxiety over tariffs has caused a new rush into safe havens. The short-term outlook of global risk assets is uncertain due to growth and inflation concerns. Fluid sentiments, and rapid changes in trade and tariff developments are also factors. Vasu Menon said. Fears of a recession The violent U.S. Treasury sale this week, which evoked the COVID era "rush for cash", has reignited concerns about the fragility of the world's largest bond market. LSEG data revealed that the 30-year bond yields increased to 4.90% and are on track for their largest weekly increase since at least 1982. Michael Krautzberger Global CIO Fixed income at Allianz Global Investors said that the current situation in U.S. bonds markets does not reflect inflation concerns. Krautzberger said that the price movement in Treasuries may be reflecting investor concerns about a recession or sharp slowdown of growth, which "would make an unsustainable U.S. Fiscal Outlook even worse." "On the contrary, we may be seeing a rebalancing of institutional investors or deleveraging in leveraged funds." Gold, the most valuable commodity, rose 1.1% to $3.210 per ounce. The oil prices rose again on Friday but are still heading for their second consecutive week of declines due to concerns over a protracted trade war between China and the United States. Brent crude futures rose 1% to $63,97 per barrel.
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Spot prices have hit a four-year low, and Chinese coal buyers are trying to avoid contracts.
Three sources familiar with the situation said that Chinese coal buyers were trying to renegotiate contracts for long-term purchases, aiming to get better deals on spot markets where prices have fallen to four-year lows. This is adding to the pressure in China's cash-strapped sector. Li Wei, Chairman of Shandong Energy Group (one of China's largest government-owned miners), said in a written statement that the spot market price has fallen below what was previously agreed upon. He said that this "puts pressure on contract fulfillment" in a field where approximately half of the miners operate in the negative. According to the Bohai-Rim Bay Thermal Coal Price Index, the domestic price of China's medium-grade coal with a 5,500 kcal/kg rating was 676 Yuan ($92.31), the lowest price since March 2021. Many end-users in China are reluctant to fulfill their long-term agreements, said a trader based in China who declined to identify himself due to the company's policy. A coal-buying employee at an industrial company said that contracts with the firm would be likely renegotiated, but "if we can't reach an agreement we may have to delay the shipment." China's coal industry has been hit by a warmter than usual winter, which curbed the heating demand. This was coupled with an oversupply on the domestic market. Two industry groups called for a limit to output and imports in February. Sources say that buyers are sticking to contracts with domestic coal miners. Import term agreements, which account for a small part of China's supply, appear to be unaffected. China imported 542,7 million tons of coal, a record. The trader explained that power plants in China typically sign long-term coal contracts covering 20-50% of the total coal they need, and buy the remainder on the spot market. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (a trade association) announced on April 9 that the relevant government departments would be stepping in to guarantee the fulfillment of long-term agreements. The Chinese trader stated that this would improve contract compliance to a certain extent. The short-term impact on prices will be minimal. The demand is too low."
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Indonesia's social security fund of $48 billion is looking to double its equity exposure
A top official said that Indonesia's social security fund BPJS Ketenagakerjaan (a $48 billion institution) aims to increase the local equity share in its portfolio up to 20% in three years. The recent stock market crash has created room for investing in undervalued stocks, he added. Edwin Ridwan is the director of the state-owned agency's investment development. He said that, since the Indonesian stock market crash, the fund has increased its investment in stocks with large market capitalisation. In an interview, he stated that "these are the conditions in which people sell, if you look at the history, whenever the market overshoots people are sold, and it's a good time to buy." He was referring to the financial crises of 2008 and 1998, as well as the COVID-19 epidemic. "We have started to see a window open for us to increase exposure to equity, as we need more volume and liquidity. With everyone selling, this liquidity is now available." BPJS Ketenagakerjaan has approximately $4.8 billion in assets that it manages directly on the stock exchange or via mutual funds. The majority of the money is invested in bonds. The rest is in deposits and other instruments. Indonesia's stock exchange plunged on its reopening Tuesday, after a long holiday break. This triggered a trading halt of 30 minutes in response to the global panic over U.S. tariffs that were announced just days before. Since then, the market has recovered some of its losses.
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Northern China is on high alert for Mongolian typhoons
Northern China braces for typhoon like gales over the weekend. Beijing, China's capital, has cancelled major sporting events and closed parks. It also suspended train services. Beijing has warned its 22 million residents to avoid unnecessary travel. China Central Television (CCTV), reported that a powerful current of cold, dry air will sweep through northern provinces on Friday afternoon and continue into the weekend. This wind is expected to be unusually strong, with gusts reaching up to 150 kilometres an hour in some places. It is normal for strong winds to carry sand and dirt from Mongolia at this time of year. Climate change has caused weather conditions to become more extreme. Beijing has issued the first orange alert for 10 years. It is the second highest colour in a four-tier system of gale warnings. The temperature in Beijing could drop by 12 degrees Celsius compared to the previous day, according to CCTV. Meteorologists have warned that some wind speeds may surpass or rival April records from 1951. The state broadcaster said that heavy snowfall is expected in Inner Mongolia and northeast China. Hailstorms could also hit southern China. The half-marathon in Beijing, originally scheduled for Sunday and featuring humanoid robotic runners racing alongside human runners as a showcase of China’s advancements in frontier technology has been postponed a week until April 19. CCTV reported that several passenger train routes in Beijing and the surrounding area were suspended. Authorities have also announced the closure of a number tourist attractions and parks. CCTV reported that more than 4,800 trees in the city have been strengthened or pruned, to reduce their risk of falling. According to the Ministry of Emergency Management, natural disasters in China resulted in direct economic losses of $9.3 billion yuan (about $1.27 billion) during the first two months of the year 2025. $1 = 7.3207 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Ethan Wang, Ryan Woo)
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In India and Nepal, nearly 100 people have died after heavy rain.
Officials and media reported that nearly 100 people died after heavy rains lashed parts India and Nepal on Wednesday. The weather department predicted further unseasonal rainfall for the region. The Indian Meteorological Department issued a warning on Wednesday for a number of hazards in the country. Heatwave conditions were reported in western areas and thunderstorms were observed in eastern and central regions. According to a senior official of the state's Disaster Management Department, since Wednesday at least 64 people have died as a result of rain-related incidents in the eastern state Bihar. In India's largest state, Uttar Pradesh, local media reported the deaths of more than 20 people. National Disaster Authority officials reported that in Nepal, heavy rain and lightning struck killed at least 8 people. India's weather bureau expects thunderstorms, lightning and gusty wind in central and eastern India until Saturday. In recent years, heatwaves have caused several deaths in summer months. The state-run IMD announced last week that India will experience an April with temperatures above normal in most parts of the country. Reporting by Tanvi Mhta from New Delhi, Jatindra Dash in Bhubaneswar, and Gopal Sharma from Kathmandu. Editing by Kim Coghill
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Trump's tariff war is a recession alarm
The turbulence caused by U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs has not abated, and the markets are once again in turmoil. Foreign leaders are trying to figure out how to react to this dismantling. The financial markets received a temporary reprieve on Wednesday, when Trump announced that he would pause tariffs for dozens countries for 90-days. Trump's escalating war of words with China, the world's second largest economy, has fueled fears about a recession and more retaliation. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, tried to reassure skeptics at a cabinet meeting held on Thursday by saying that over 75 countries were interested in starting trade negotiations. Trump also expressed his hope for a deal to be reached with China. The uncertainty between now and then has led to some of the most volatile markets since the COVID-19 pandemic. The S&P 500 index closed Thursday 3.5% lower and is now about 15% below its peak in February. Asian indices fell on Friday, following Wall Street's decline. Japan's Nikkei was down almost 5% while Hong Kong stocks are heading for their biggest weekly drop since 2008. LSEG data revealed that the yield on the 10-year bond was set to reach its highest weekly increase since 2001. Bessent, on Thursday, dismissed the new market turmoil by saying that striking deals with other nations would bring certainty. White House: The U.S. has agreed to start formal trade negotiations with Vietnam. Exclusively reported on Friday, the Southeast Asian manufacturing hub was ready to crackdown on Chinese goods that were being shipped via its territory to the United States in order to avoid tariffs. Shigeru Shiba, the Japanese prime minister, has meanwhile set up a task force for trade that is expected to visit Washington, D.C. next week. Taiwan also said that it expects to be part of the first group of trading partners who will hold talks with Washington. CHINA DEAL? Trump imposed higher duties on Chinese imports to punish Beijing for its initial retaliatory move. A White House official confirmed that Trump has now increased tariffs by 145% on Chinese products since taking office. Chinese officials are contacting other trading partners to discuss how to handle the U.S. Tariffs. They have recently spoken to counterparts from Spain, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. Trump told reporters in the White House that he believed the United States and China could reach a deal, but he repeated his claim that Beijing has "really taken the U.S. advantage" for a very long time. "I am sure that we will be able get along very nicely," Trump said. He added that he respected Chinese president Xi Jinping. "He's been my friend for a very long time and I believe that we will end up working something out that is good for both countries." China has restricted the import of Hollywood movies, a major American export, after rejecting what it called Washington's threats and blackmail. The U.S. tariff freeze does not extend to Canada or Mexico. Their goods still face 25% fentanyl tariffs, unless they meet the rules of origin set forth in the U.S. Mexico Canada trade agreement. Goldman Sachs has estimated that 45% of the time a recession will occur due to the continued hostilities between the three largest U.S. trading partners. According to researchers at Yale University, even with the rollback the average U.S. import duty rate is still the highest it has been in over a century. The pause did not ease the concerns of business leaders about Trump's chaotic trade war, which has resulted in a rise in costs, a fall in orders and a snarled up supply chain. The European Union did, however, announce that it would suspend its first counter-tariffs. Next Tuesday, the EU was due to introduce counter-tariffs against imports from the United States worth about 21 billion Euros ($23 billion), in response to Trump’s 25% tariffs. The EU is still deciding how to react to the U.S. auto tariffs as well as the 10% levy that remains in place. The finance ministers of the 27-country group will discuss on Friday ways to take advantage of the pause in order to reach a deal with Washington, and to coordinate their efforts if that doesn't happen. The European authorities estimate that the U.S. Tariffs would have a total impact on the economy of 0.5% to 1.00 % of GDP. According to the European Central Bank (ECB), the EU's economy is expected to grow by 0.9% in 2018. The U.S. Tariffs could push the EU into a recession.
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Asia Gold - Asian buyers take advantage of cheaper gold during market decline
In the first half this week, physical gold demand in key Asian hubs increased as customers took advantage of lower prices due to a correction of the market. Dealers in China, the world's largest consumer, charged premiums ranging from $24 to $54 per ounce over benchmark global spot prices. This is a dramatic increase compared to last week when premiums were between $6 and $13. Peter Fung is the head of trading at Wing Fung Precious Metals. He said that gold briefly fell below $3,000 earlier this week. This sparked a rush in Chinese buyers and led to long lines at jewellery stores. Gold spot prices fell earlier this week as investors sold bullion to cover the losses from an escalating trade war that caused a market collapse. Prices rose above the $3,200 threshold on Friday. Official data shows that China's central banks added gold to their reserves for the fifth consecutive month in March. Indian dealers began the week by charging up to $5 in premiums per ounce. By the end of the week, they offered a discount as high as $33 below the official domestic prices. This includes 6% import duties and 3% tax. Last week, Indian dealers offered discounts up to $20 an ounce. The demand showed signs of improvement at the beginning of this week, after a correction in prices. As prices began to rise again, buyers started to retreat," said Chanda Vekatesh of Hyderabad-based bullion dealer CapsGold. Earlier in the session, domestic gold prices reached a record-high of 93 736 rupees for 10 grams, after dropping to 86 928 rupees Monday. Indians like to have stable prices, but the current situation is unstable due to tariff announcements that are confusing for retail buyers. Daman Prakash Rahod, wholesaler from Chennai, in southern India, explained. In Singapore Gold traded at a premium up to $2.50 an ounce over the global benchmark. Brian Lan, the managing director of GoldSilver Central in Singapore said: "We have seen a lot of retail clients come to buy." In Hong Kong, gold In Japan, gold bullion was sold at a premium of $2 to par. Was sold at a flat $1 premium.
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London metals are mixed after Trump's tariff pause
Base metals traded in London mixed on Friday, and headed to a weekly increase after U.S. president Donald Trump decided temporarily lower the heavy duties for dozens countries and the dollar weakened. As of 0352 GMT, the benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange lost 0.1% and was $8,976 per ton. This week, it has gained 2.3%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most traded copper contract rose by 0.9%, to $74,590 ($10197.97) a metric ton. The price has fallen 5.8% since Thursday's closing of 79.190 yuan a ton. SHFE was closed for a holiday on April 4. Dollar fell as investors fled U.S. assets in favor of safer havens due to waning confidence. The greenback price of commodities is cheaper when purchased in other currencies. Trump announced on Wednesday a 90-day suspension of tariffs on most countries, a dramatic U-turn following a market crash that wiped trillions of dollars off global stocks. The U.S. President increased duties on Chinese imports on Thursday to an effective rate of 145%, further intensifying a high-stakes conflict between the two world's largest economies. "Market uncertainty continues, driven primarily by the unpredictable nature trade policies and tariffs. Investors remain cautious due to ongoing trade tensions, and are concerned about the possibility of a recession. SHFE aluminium remained flat at 19,620 Yuan per ton. Zinc increased by 1.1%, to 22,630 Yuan. Lead gained 0.8%, to 16,770 Yuan. Nickel was up 1.5%, at 120,810 Yan. Tin advanced 2.7%, to 255240 Yan. LME aluminium fell by 0.2%, to $2366 per ton. Lead rose by 0.2%, to $1895.5; tin increased 0.8%, to $30,905; zinc CMZN3 dropped 0.1%, to $2638; and nickel lost 0.3%, to $14750 a metric ton. $1 = 7.3142 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Violet Li, Lewis Jackson and Janane Vekatraman).
Climate change threatens low-lying Caribbean healthcare facilities, UN states
Tens of millions of individuals residing in seaside locations around the Caribbean and Latin America face imminent threats to health care and crucial infrastructure as climate change brings more serious weather condition events, according to a United Countries report on Tuesday.
According to the report by the U.N. sexual and reproductive health company (UNFPA), some 41 million individuals - 6% of all individuals residing in the general region - live in low-lying seaside areas at threat of storm surges, flooding and hurricanes.
In the Caribbean alone, this represents some 17%.
Behind our modeling of exposed coastal populations are countless people-- consisting of poor and susceptible Afrodescendent and indigenous women and women-- who are the least responsible for the environment crisis however are paying a heavy price when it comes to their sexual and reproductive health and rights, said UNFPA Executive Director Natalia Kanem.
Climate modification is not gender neutral and worsens existing inequalities, she stated.
The report recognized over 1,400 crucial healthcare facilities located in low-lying seaside areas, utilizing satellite imagery and population estimates to recognize communities most at danger.
In the Caribbean countries of Suriname, Guyana and the Bahamas, in addition to the Dutch and British areas of Aruba and the Cayman Islands, these represented over 80% of hospitals.
In Pacific-facing Ecuador, this represented 12% of hospitals, in Haiti this was 10%, and in Mexico, the area's. second-largest economy, more than 5%.
Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, counted one of the most. healthcare facilities in vulnerable low-lying locations, with 519 - representing. just over 7% of the number across the country.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. ( NOAA) has warned of a highly active Atlantic typhoon season. beginning this June due to hotter ocean waters combined with. effects from the La Nina weather phenomenon.
UNFPA launched the report as leaders from Small Island. Developing States
(source: Reuters)