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The ECB predicts that the Iran energy shock will have a 0.4-point impact on growth in the Eurozone.

According to the European Central Bank, based upon 'current energy prices' and 'previous episodes, it is expected that the energy shock from the Iran war will reduce the economic growth in the eurozone by 0.4 percentage point this year. Fuel prices have increased for energy-importing Euro zone due to the attack on Iran, and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The ECB has reduced its growth estimates two times since March and raised borrowing costs this month.

The ECB economist Johannes Gareis examined a series?of oil shocks since 1985 along with indicators of economic activity and private consumption, as well as consumer prices, short- -and long-term rates of interest, to estimate the impact of 'the Iran conflict.

According to an ECB Bulletin, "Using the current 'oil futures curve' and assuming geopolitical supply shocks will account for the majority of implied oil price fluctuations in 2026," the war in the Middle East could reduce the real GDP growth in the euro zone by 0.4 percentage points in the first year.

The impact of the episode is expected to increase gradually over the course of the year, unlike in previous episodes. This is due to the substantial rise in oil prices that's expected in the second quater of 2026, and the longer-term path implied by the futures curve."

The ECB anticipates that the eurozone economy will grow by?0.8% in this year's, 1.2% next and 1.5%?2028.

Since these projections were made public, the United States has signed a ceasefire agreement with Iran and started talks. Reporting by Francesco Canepa, Editing by Kevin Liffey

(source: Reuters)