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MORNING BID EUROPE - Tech and war worries sap confidence
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Oil is back in the spotlight and equity markets are struggling to find a footing after the selloff this week triggered by new?blows against the ceasefire?in?the Middle East. U.S. has?launched a new strike against multiple targets within Iran. President Donald Trump has promised even more attacks in the event of no peace agreement. Brent crude rose by 1.7% to $94.64 on Friday after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced that it had targeted U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain and threatened?to target any vessel crossing through the Strait of Hormuz. The region's equities fell, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan falling 1.3%. Taiwanese shares and Korean shares led the declines while AI chipmakers fluctuated between gains and losses. Analysts have attributed recent tech slumps to investors repositioning themselves ahead of SpaceX's upcoming share offering. The IPO, which is expected to attract more than $250 billion in investor demand, has been reported to have drawn more investor interest. Oracle's announcement of spending plans that exceeded expectations and fueled debt concerns sent its shares plummeting by 10% after-hours. The euro rose 0.1% against the U.S. Dollar to $1.1544 ahead of the European Central Bank’s announcement on its June monetary policy later Thursday. It is widely expected that the ECB will raise rates. The euro held gains even as the U.S. Dollar index remained at its highest levels since the ceasefire negotiations with Tehran began in early April. According to CME's FedWatch, Wednesday's strong U.S. inflation data has pushed market bets towards an October rate hike. However, expectations are still finely balanced. The yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was 4.552%, up 1.4 basis points. U.S. equity contracts are on a tentative footing. S&P 500 e-minis futures rose 0.2%, and they're expected to end a two-day loss streak. Early European futures dropped?0.8%. German DAX was down?0.6%. FTSE futures also fell 0.8%. The following are key developments that could impact the markets on Thursday. Economic events in Germany: Current Account Balance for April Euro Zone: ECB monetary Policy Decision for June and Press Conference U.S. PPI for May Debt auctions UK: 3-year government debt
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Russell: China's May data is confusing, but the Iran war has not affected iron ore prices.
The U.S. and Israel war against Iran has not affected the price of iron ore, but this relative calm hides a shift in the?dynamics? for the steel raw material. China purchases about three quarters of the world's seaborne iron ore. It uses it to feed mills that make just over half the steel produced worldwide. Iron ore is mostly sourced from Australia and Brazil. Other producers such as South Africa and Guinea also contribute a small amount. This trade bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway that connects Iran to Oman has been closed off since February 28, when the U.S., Israel and other countries launched an air campaign against Iran. The iron ore price has remained relatively stable since the beginning of the conflict. This is in contrast to the volatile prices for commodities such as crude oil, refined goods, liquefied gas, coal and aluminium. Singapore Exchange iron ore contract prices have traded at a range of $14 per metric tonne, anchored around $105 a ton this year. The price of marine bunker fuel rose from $98.20 per ton in February to $111.91 per ton on May 11, amid concerns among Chinese buyers about a possible shortage due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iron ore prices have fallen as concerns about?imminent fuel shortages have diminished. They ended at $101.65 per ton on 10th June. Customs data show that China imported 516.26 millions tons in the first five months, an increase of 6.3% compared to a year ago. MAY DATA DISCREPANCY According to official figures, imports in May were 97.71 millions tons, down by 6% compared to April and a three-month record low. The soft imports in May were contrary to the estimates of commodity analysts DBX Commodities Kpler. DBX estimated seaborne iron ore arrivals in May at 105.56 millions tons, while Kpler estimated 106.4 million. Although data from tracking services does not always match up with customs, an 8 million ton gap for a single month is rare. It is likely that official numbers will rebound in June, as the lower number of imports for May may have been due to cargoes arriving at the end the month being pushed forward into June for evaluation. China's iron ore imports are performing better than China's steel industry. The latter has seen its output fall by 4.1% to 331.12 millions tons in the first quarter of this year. Iron ore inventories in China's port reached a record of 166.91 millions tons during the week ending March 13. SteelHome consultants SteelHome have reported that they have declined since then to a?159.09 millions tons during the week ending June 5. The 132.0 million tonnes in the same week of 2025 were 21% more than today. The decline in domestic iron ore, both in terms of volume and quality, is another factor that drives iron ore imports. According to MySteel, China's output of iron ore was 326.8 millions tons during the first four months, a 1% decrease from a similar period last year. The drop in 2025 is 2.8%, from 1.04 billion tons in 2024 to 983.7 millions tons. China's iron ore contains between 20% and 30% iron. This means that it must be upgraded in order to match the imported grades of 60%-65%. The process is energy-intensive and costly. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
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Copper prices fall as the escalating conflict in the Middle East fuels concerns about slowdown
Copper prices fell on Thursday as the Middle East conflict escalated, pushing oil prices up and raising concerns about global growth. By 0300 GMT, the benchmark three-month copper price?on London Metal Exchange?had fallen 0.75% to a metric ton of $13,414.5. It had hit a new low of $13,378 per ton earlier in the day. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 1.5%, to 102 910 yuan (15,187.43 dollars) per ton. SHFE prices touched?102.640 yuan per ton in the early morning hours, their lowest level since the 8th of May. Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed until further notice and the US Central Command denied this. Brent oil prices rose by 1.57%. High energy costs?squeeze the manufacturing sector, which is a major source of copper demand. The LME saw a 0.29% increase in aluminium prices and the SHFE a 0.4% rise. The production of aluminium is an energy-intensive process, and the Middle East has 9% of the global smelting capacities for the metal. Total aluminium?stocks are low. Total Aluminium? Stocks Data released on Wednesday revealed that the number of warehouses registered with LME remained at an all-time low. Data showed that U.S. inflation was above the Federal Reserve target of 2% in May, but below investors' worst expectations. The macroeconomic outlook has been dampened by persistently high inflation, and concerns have been raised about interest rates that are higher for longer. Fed?fund Futures now price in an implied probability of?51.6% that the Fed will increase rates during its two-day October meeting. Zinc fell 1.09% on the LME, while lead increased 0.36% and nickel dropped 0.07%. Tin also declined 0.58%. On the SHFE, tin fell 0.97%, whereas nickel dropped 1.46%. Nickel also lost 2.46%.
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Singapore bank DBS offers tokenised physical Gold to retail customers
DBS Group, Singapore’s largest bank in terms of assets, announced?on Thursday that it would offer tokenised gold to retail customers, as the demand for precious metals grows and the city-state pushes to become a hub for gold trading. Gold remains a popular store of value, despite recent price fluctuations. Gold prices reached a record $5,600 per ounce in this year due to concerns about inflation, geopolitical tensions, and market volatility. But spot gold fell on Wednesday to $4,111.95, its lowest level since March 23, and 27% below that peak. DBS, the largest bank in Southeast Asia, announced in a press release that DBS?Physical gold tokens would be available via its digibank application in the second half 2026. It stated that 'the offering will be the first to allow retail customers in Singapore to digitally access physical gold tokens, hold them and trade them through a single platform. Tokenisation is the process of turning a physical asset into a digital coin that can be electronically traded. Each token is backed by 1 gram of gold that DBS holds in a vault?in Singapore. As of Thursday, a gram of physical gold was worth approximately S$200 ($155). DBS said that customers will be able buy smaller amounts of gold, trade at any time and redeem tokens to get 'physical gold. James Tan, the?group director of investment products, said that gold as an asset class had taken off over the past few years. He added that tokenisation would enable more retail customers invest in gold. DBS is exploring the possibility of?listing the tokens on its DBS Digital Exchange, which is open to accredited investors and institutional partners. DBS Wealth said that physical gold holdings of DBS clients have doubled in the last three years.
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Short-covering of gold has led to a rebound from a six-month low; PPI data is the focus
Short-covering helped gold prices bounce back from a six-month-low on Thursday as investors awaited the key U.S. Inflation report, which could shed light on Fed policy outlook. Gold spot rose 0.4% by 215 GMT to $4,089.12 an ounce, after having fallen as low as $4,022.09 per ounce on November 21 earlier in the day. U.S. gold contracts for August delivery fell?0.5% to $4,111.10. "With prices hurtling toward $4,000, there's an obvious support level that could prompt bears to book a profit quickly or tempt battered Bulls from the sidelines," said Matt Simpson, a senior analysts at StoneX. The US dollar index did not gain much following the CPI report on Wednesday. If there are no nasty surprises in the PPI, then gold may be due for a technical rebound over the near term. The Middle East conflict and the surge in energy prices were a major factor in the increase in consumer inflation in May. The markets are now awaiting the May U.S. Producer Price Index, which is due later today, to assess the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Gold is often viewed as an inflation hedge, but higher interest rates can weigh down on this non-yielding metal. According to CME FedWatch, traders are pricing in more than 70% of a U.S. interest rate increase by December. The U.S. Military announced on Wednesday that the United States had launched a "fresh round" of strikes overnight against multiple targets in Iran. This comes after Donald Trump promised new attacks if a peace agreement was not reached. The price of oil rose by more than $2 on Thursday after Iran announced?the closing of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the U.S. attacks. Silver spot rose 0.3%, to $63.86 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.6%, to $1673.75, while palladium climbed by 2.2%, to $1239.89. (Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Elliott criticises Australia's Northern Star over board revamp and sales
Elliott Investment Management, an activist investor, called on Australia's biggest gold miner Northern Star Resources late on Wednesday to restore shareholder value immediately by re-evaluating its board and conducting a formal strategic assessment. They cited severe underperformance. Elliott Investment Management, an activist investor, announced last week that it had acquired a stake of more than A$1 Billion ($700.80 M) in Northern Star Resources. The investor cited severe underperformance and repeated "operational mistakes", including seven missed outlooks over the past four years and a share value that was vastly below its peers. Elliott's call, which was instrumental in convincing BHP to end its dual listing campaign after a five year campaign, came as the $19billion miner was recruiting a new chief executive and planning succession for its chair. In a letter sent to shareholders on Wednesday morning, Northern Star responded to Elliott's proposal by saying that it would be happy to work together with the activist investor. The U.S. investor stated: "The letter from the board indicates that they do not understand the magnitude and change required to gain back the trust of shareholders, starting with significantly strengthening the board themselves." Elliott said that the case for a review of Australia's biggest listed gold miner has become clearer since the board released its letter. Northern Star stated in its letter to shareholders that it did not believe it was the right time for a sale. In its shareholder letter, Northern Star acknowledged that several companies had approached it about considering corporate combinations due to the poor performance of its shares. "I believe that Northern Star will act on a number of things Elliott wants it to, but Elliott's pressuring is going to force Northern Star to move faster," said Daniel Morgan, an analyst with Barrenjoey, in Sydney. Morgan stated that Northern Star wants to continue with its most valuable assets, Kalgoorlie Super Pit and the Hemi Pogo projects. Morgan also said that remaining assets could be sold to mid-tier gold miners who are looking to raise cash, starting this year. Northern Star stated in its letter that, over the past six months, investment banks had suggested a spin-off, an option which was also considered by the miner's financial advisor. However, the miner chose not to pursue this option. Northern Star faced several challenges at its Kalgoorlie Gold operations in Western Australia over the past year. It also said that achieving its lower-end production guidance for fiscal 2026 would be difficult. The company's shares fell by as much as 5.3% in the early hours of Thursday to a price of?A$17.55, the lowest level since March 24. They were also in line with the broader S&P/ASX 200 Index, which had fallen 0.8% as at 0038 GMT. Stocks have lost 33% of their value this year, far outpacing the 5% drop in gold.
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Report: Indonesian floods killed at least 7% orangutans, a rare species.
A new report released on Wednesday shows that deadly landslides and floods in Indonesia's Sumatra have killed at least 7% the population of critically endangered tapanuli apes. At least 1,200 people were killed and 300,000 homes damaged by the cyclone-induced floods and landslides. Environmental groups blamed the rapid deforestation on Sumatra for the extent of damage. The report said that at least 58 Tapanuli Orangutans were killed by the floods. These orangutans are native to north Sumatra, in an area called Batang Toru Forest. This forest is also home to the majority of the 800 primates. The report was a joint study of Borneo Futures in Brunei, World Weather Attribution, and Liverpool John Moores University. It did not cover the rest of the forest. This means that the death toll may have been higher. Satellite images of damage to the West Block of Batang Toru, and historical records of orangutan populations in the area were used to derive the findings. The study found that climate change caused by humans has increased extreme rainfall in the Malacca Strait area, which puts the habitat of the Tapanuli Orangutan at greater risk. Erik Meijaard, the lead author, from Borneo Futures said that the heavy rains soaked up the soil to the point where large areas of?hillsides within the primary forest collapsed into fast-moving land slides. He said: "If you are caught as an orangutan... If anything falls at high speeds, your chances of survival will be minimal. So it was a concern." This level of?loss?is substantial for an animal with a very small population. Combining this with other pressures, such as habitat destruction and conflict between humans and wildlife, makes it even more urgent to implement and properly resource a coordinated species action plan. Panut Hadisiswoyo is another researcher who urged the Indonesian Government to work with NGOs and other researchers to "prevent further decline in orangutan population". "We can reduce the poaching and hunting?and then probably stabilise the number," he said. He added that all parties should pay attention to poor land use, which contributes to a declining population. (Reporting and editing by Gibran Pshimam, David Stanway, and Ananda Teresia)
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EU agrees stronger price controls for new carbon market
The European Parliament announced early Thursday that it had agreed to stronger measures to regulate?prices on its new carbon markets, in response to concerns from governments that the initiative to reduce emissions could increase fuel costs. Negotiators from the?EU and the European Parliament agreed that if the price of permits on the new carbon markets exceeds EUR45 ($52), then 40 million permits from the "stability reserves" will be released to the market to regulate the supply. This is an increase from the previous 20 million. Under the Wednesday evening changes, the reserve can be activated twice per year. This means that 80 million additional permits?can be issued each year. The reserve will be extended to 2030 and beyond, rather than ending in that year. The EU's second emission trading system (ETS), which will be implemented in 2028, will place a price on CO2 emissions from heating and transportation fuels. This is to encourage the shift to electric vehicles and more efficient home heating systems. The ETS will require that fuel distributors and suppliers purchase CO2 permits to cover their own emissions. The proceeds from this scheme will go towards helping people to pay their bills, purchase electric cars, and make energy-saving renovations in homes. The new scheme, known as ETS2, will cover heating and transportation emissions separately from the existing EU emissions trading system that covers heavy industry and power plants. ETS2 price regulation is stricter after governments such as France and the Czech Republic warned that it could stoke opposition to climate change policies if perceived to increase fuel prices. The revisions include a more gradual release from the'stability reserve' of market permits, with smaller quantities becoming available as soon as the number of permits falls below 260 millions, rather than releasing 100,000,000 permits all at once once the total drops below 210,000,000, according to the parliament. Before 2028, the agreement must be?adopted by the European Parliament?and?EU member countries?. In July, the European Commission will likely present a more comprehensive review of ETS2.
Oil prices rise more than $1 after traders become uneasy over the escalation of US-Iran tensions
The oil prices rose on Thursday after Iran declared that the Strait of Hormuz was a 'critical energy chokepoint' and 'closed it if necessary. This came as the U.S. launched more strikes against Iran, while President Donald Trump threatened to launch even more attacks in the event of a failed peace agreement.
Brent futures were up $1.48 or 1.59% to $94.58 per barrel at 0243 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), which is a blend of WTI and Brent, was up $1.71 or 1.90% to $91.74. U.S. crude oil futures rose by more than $3 in the early part of the session.
Iran's top Joint Military Command announced on Thursday the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, including oil tanks and commercial vessels, saying that any vessel trying to pass will be shot.
In a client note, ING analysts said that the deal was still a long way off. They also noted that energy flow from the Persian Gulf would remain severely constrained.
They said that the renewed escalation of fighting caused oil prices to rise in early morning trading.
The U.S. military said Wednesday on X, that commercial ships are still transiting in and out the strait.
Iran's state-run media had reported that U.S. warships near the waterway have been targeted by drones and missiles.
U.S. forces launched additional strikes at multiple targets in Iran, starting at 5:15 pm EDT (21.15 GMT). This is the latest of a series of escalating attacks that have threatened to reignite the full-scale conflict which was stopped in early April after the two sides reached a fragile truce.
Trump said to Fox News reporter 'Trey Yingst, on Wednesday evening, that the strikes will stop soon but that he "would bomb the shite out of them", if Iran’s leaders do not sign an accord with the?U.S. immediately.
The Iranian blockade, which has lasted for months, of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally transports a fifth of all oil and gas shipments worldwide, has kept 'oil prices high.
The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil inventories dropped by 7.2m barrels, to 426.5m barrels, in the week ending June 5. This was compared with the analysts' expectation in a poll, which predicted a draw of 4m barrels.
U.S. crude oil inventories have dropped by 79,000,000 barrels, including those in strategic reserves, since the Iran War began on February 28. The top global producer has moved to plug supply gaps as the strait was effectively closed.
A survey revealed that OPEC's output fell to its lowest levels in more than two decades in May, due to the U.S. blockade of Iran's exports, and the effective closure by Tehran of the strategic waterway, which slashed shipments coming from other Gulf producers.
(source: Reuters)