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Oil eases following the latest headlines about Iran war, as stocks fall due to rising US bond yields

The global stock index dropped on Tuesday as 30-year U.S. Treasury rates rose to their highest level since 2007. Oil prices also eased, as investors digested recent headlines about U.S. negotiations with?Iran in order to end the conflict. U.S. president Donald Trump said on Tuesday that it may be necessary to strike again at?Iran. He also stated that he was an hour from ordering an assault before postponing. Trump said on Monday that he had put off a planned resumption after a new Iranian proposal to end the U.S. - Israel war.

U.S. Vice-President JD Vance stated that the United States has made significant progress in its talks with Iran and neither party wants to see the military campaign resumed.

Brent futures fell 82 cents to $111.28 per barrel, and the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude contract for June delivery that expired on Tuesday was down 89 cents to $107.77.

The rising inflation concerns continued to push up U.S. Treasury rates. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond reached its highest level in 19 years. Last time, it was around 5.18%. The yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to their highest level in over a year.

Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, New York.

He said, "We are seeing the long-end of the market continue to rise." "That's why we see (stocks) in defensive mode."

Stock valuations are challenged by rising yields, which increase borrowing costs and result in a greater discount on future earnings. Earnings from Nvidia, the world's largest?company, are due to be released on Wednesday. Expectations for this company will be sky-high. Walmart and other retailers will also be releasing their results this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 322.24 points or 0.65% to 49,363.88, while the S&P 500 declined 49.44 points or 0.67% to 7,353.61, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 220.02 or 0.84% to 25,870.72.

MSCI's global index of stocks fell 6.44 points or 0.59% to 1,091.79. The European stock market was higher on Monday, regaining ground that they lost last Friday, when they fell 1.5% due to bond market fears spreading to equity markets. Stocks in Europe are still below their pre-war level and lag behind their U.S. counterparts. This is because Europe imports energy and has less major tech companies. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by?0.19%.

U.S. U.S.

The Iran War has not abated the fears of a long-lasting inflationary shock, mainly due to sharply rising energy prices. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 4.4 basis points from late Monday to 4,667%. Prices and yields are inversely related. British bond yields dropped?after reports that the most likely candidate to succeed Prime Minister Keir starmer would not change the country's borrowing regulations. The U.S. Dollar was up in part due to the?higher U.S. Yields, which were driven by inflation concerns and uncertainty about how new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh would respond if prices continue to increase.

The global rate hike expectation has changed, and traders are now pricing in higher 'probabilities' of rate increases from the Fed. The expectation is that policymakers are going to have to tighten their policies to combat the resurgence of inflation, which has been fueled by high energy prices. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.34% at 99.33. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.45% to $1.1602.

The?dollar gained 0.14% against the Japanese yen to 159.05.

Data released on Tuesday revealed that Japan's economy grew an annualised 2.1% during the first quarter. This supports expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in June.

Investors also await details of the government’s supplementary budget, which could further stress Japan’s already degrading public finances. This would weigh down the yen.

Gold declined as the dollar strengthened. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery settled 1% lower at $4,511.20.

(source: Reuters)