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RPT-Russia delays changes to fiscal fund following Iran war energy prices surge

Increased oil revenue from the Iran War benefits Russia

Discussions on budget cuts continue

* Putin calls for a balanced decision on the use of windfall

By Darya Korsunskaya and Elena Fabrichnaya

MOSCOW, 23 March - The spike in oil prices triggered by the Iran War has allowed the Russian Government to delay a plan to increase long-term fiscal reserve, according to three sources familiar with the discussion. This will relieve the pressure on short-term financial resources.

The Russian economy is one of few in the world to benefit from U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, even though it has been struggling with the costs of military action in Ukraine, international sanctions and other factors.

Oil prices have increased to over $100 per barrel. They were around $70 before the start of the war at the end February. Gas prices are also up.

According to calculations, based on the price of oil at $75 per barrel, Russian budget oil revenues will grow 70% from March to April, reaching 0.9 trillion Russian roubles. This is the highest level monthly since October 2025.

The CUT-OFF Price Determines How Much Revenue Flows into Fund

Russia had announced its intention to lower the "cut-off price" of oil before the war in Iran began. The Russian government also claimed that budget cuts were being discussed.

The National Wealth Fund receives any revenue above the current cut-off of $59 to be used as a fiscal reserve.

Sources who were not authorized to speak in public said that the government will now delay changing the price cut-off.

Sources said it is more likely that the change will happen in 2027, since the budget law would need to be amended.

CHANGES WERE EXPECTED VERY QUICKLY

On February 25, just three days before war broke out, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that changes allowing a lower price cut-off would be announced in two weeks.

However, on Monday, President Vladimir Putin called for a balanced approach to the use of revenues from higher oil prices.

Siluanov, after his meeting with Putin Monday, said that the government is considering measures to reduce the budget's vulnerability to oil price fluctuations on the medium-term.

The Russian budget is based on an average annual oil price equal to the cutoff price. The reserve fund will cover the deficit if the average monthly price of oil is lower than this. If the average price of oil is higher than the cut-off, the surplus will be deposited in the reserve fund.

Senior government officials told two other sources that the price cut will be the same and the need to reduce spending was also questioned.

NEW SET OF MACRO-FORECASTS

In April, the government will release a set of new macro-forecasts, which include an estimate of the average oil price for this year. This information will be used to guide?the budget.

The reserve fund, which is now mainly yuan in currency, has a significant impact on the?Russian foreign exchange market.

The government's decision in March to stop forex sales while it deliberated on the new cutoff price caused a 6% drop in the exchange rate of the rouble against the dollar.

Elvira Nabibullina, the Governor of the Russian Central Bank, stated that it is too early to assess the impact of the higher oil prices on Russia's economy.

Nabiullina, along with her first deputy Alexei Zabotkin, said that the budget rule is the best way for Russia to protect itself from external shocks.

A person familiar with ongoing discussions stated that, even if Iran's crisis ends suddenly, many Russian policymakers still expect oil prices to remain high for a while. (Writing by Gleb Brynski; Editing by Barbara Lewis).

(source: Reuters)