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BlueScope Steel shareholders seek price increase for $9 billion purchase offer
BlueScope Steel's investors are hoping for a A$13.2 Billion ($8.92 Billion) buyout offer from SGH and U.S. based Steel Dynamics to gain their support to sell Australia’s largest steelmaker. BlueScope closed Wednesday with a 1.12% increase in its shares at A$29.87. This is a fractional amount below the A$30 offer that was made public on Monday. The BlueScope board has yet to deliver an official recommendation on the all-cash bid, which was the fourth approach from Steel Dynamics put to the Melbourne-headquartered firm since late 2024. SGH, owned by Australian billionaire Kerry Stokes would purchase BlueScope, and then sell the North American assets of the steelmaker to Steel Dynamics. Some investors believe that the price should be raised to ensure their support. Jamie Hannah, VanEck's deputy head of investment, said that while it is good to see some interest in BlueScope's stock, looking at its valuations, we don't think this is enough. "I think that the way things are going, they will have to increase their offer if they hope to convince any of the shareholders to sign." AustralianSuper, BlueScope’s largest shareholder with a 12,5% stake, refused to comment. The bid could not proceed without its backing, since Australian pension funds are often active in corporate transactions. AustralianSuper has rejected Brookfield's bid of $10.6 billion for Origin Energy by 2023, saying that the offer was too low. BlueScope SGH and Steel Dynamics have not responded to our requests for comment. Joseph Koh is the portfolio manager of Blackwattle Investment Partners which owns BlueScope & SGH stock. Macquarie analysts stated in a research report that they felt investors perceived the price to be low, but the deal prospects were real. They said that "a shift in economics and terms is likely to occur as time goes on."
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Andy Home: The US tariff on copper is draining China's warehouses.
China's refined copper exports surged to records levels in the last year, as the world's largest buyer found itself in unusual competitive competition with the U.S. As the market values the possibility of U.S. tariffs, the CME's U.S. Copper contract continues to command an attractive premium over the price on the London Metal Exchange. The decision was deferred to June of this year. The ripple effect of U.S. metal delivery premiums is now emptying China's warehouse zones. China's exports jumped from 698.500 tons to 143,000 tons in November. This is already a record for the entire year. The total for November included 57.700 tons of goods headed to the U.S. All of them were sourced from stocks stored in bonded warehouses located at Chinese ports like Shanghai. The lingering threat of tariffs continues to disrupt global trading patterns. CHINA'S BONDED STOCK RAIDED AGAIN Last year, the arbitrage between the CME and LME was so blown out that traders had a unique opportunity to make money by importing physical copper into the U.S. CME copper stocks have exploded to 450,000 tonnes, more than LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange combined. LME stocks for U.S. delivery of desired brands, notably Chilean metal, are exhausted. Chinese and Russian copper made up 95% of the registered inventory as of?the end November. Metal that was physically unloaded, but had not been cleared by customs to be delivered to mainland buyers has come back to the forefront of attention. This is the second time that this bonded stock has been raided. China exported or rather redirected 120,000 tons refined copper to the U.S. from February through July of last year when import tariffs appeared to be a certainty. The tariff trade was stifled by Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on copper products, but not refined copper, in July. Since then, traders have been betting that the threat of tariffs has only been delayed. The increase in November shipments of goods from Chinese ports to United States is a testament to the renewed appeal of U.S. deliveries. Plugging the Gaps China's portside copper inventory will also leave to plug any gaps that may have arisen elsewhere, as traders remove from the supply chain all brands of metal which can be delivered against the CME contract in order to ensure frictionless arbitrage trading. Outbound shipments in November included 16,500 tonnes bound for Italy, as well as smaller tons destined for Germany and Sweden. The rush to get products to the U.S. has caused availability to fall and physical prices to rise everywhere else. Aurubis, Europe's largest producer, has increased its premium for terms sales to $315 per ton from $228 over the LME base price this year. Codelco, a Chilean state-owned producer, is charging its European clients $325 per tonne and its Chinese customers $350 per tonne. This reflects the fierce competition between traders for Codelco's brands. China is still the largest copper importer in the world, but the increase in outbound shipments has caused its net pull of units from other countries to decrease by 11% during the first eleven months of 2025. It has also struggled to compete with U.S. premium brands when it comes to CME delivered brands. China's imports from Chilean metal dropped by 43% on an annual basis between January and November, while those from Peruvian metal declined by 50%. Chinese buyers are increasingly dependent on imports from Russia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which represented 37% and 11% of the total in the first 11 months of 2025. SIGNAL CONFUSION It's hard to tell how much copper has sat in China's warehouse zones for the past few years. Metals are classified as imports by customs departments, but they only become statistically visible when they're reshipped elsewhere. In that case, it appears on the export side under a special code. It's obvious that there are fewer imports now than before Trump proposed tariffs in February. The removal of China's copper port stocks shows how the threat of U.S. Tariffs has affected global copper flows. This is also a problem for assessing the current state of a market that consistently hits all-time highs in price. The global exchange inventory was above 800,000 tonnes for the first since 2013 which could dampen the bullish market exuberance. The CME is the main driver for higher stocks, as copper continues to arrive daily. The CME, where copper is still arriving daily, has been the main driver of higher visible stocks. The physical supply chain as well as the price signal of inventory are still being distorted by the tectonic movement of copper stocks from Europe to the U.S. As long as Trump's tariff threat causes a CME premium large enough to cover physical shipment costs, the drain on availability elsewhere, including China’s port stocks, could become more acute. Andy Home is an author and columnist. The opinions expressed in this column are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.
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The spoils of oil
Rocky Swift gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. While Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro waits for his fate in a New York jail, it appears that nearly $2 billion of Venezuela's oil is also destined for the United States. Donald Trump's recent use of military force in achieving policy goals has resulted in the toppling of a?leader? and the country's oil reserves. He has hinted in recent days at possible strikes against Colombia, Mexico and Greenland. The markets have largely taken these events in stride. Crude oil has reacted the most to the prospect that 50 million barrels sanctioned Venezuelan crude will be shipped and sold into the U.S., under a Trump-announced plan. Three sources with knowledge of the plans say that U.S. oil executives will 'visit the White House on Thursday to discuss investments to?Venezuela. Gold's record high has been maintained by rising geopolitical risk, including simmering tensions in China with its neighbours. Supply concerns for industrial metals, such as copper, have caused a price spike. Asian shares were mostly lower. They failed to maintain the momentum that had?driven U.S. benchmarks and European benchmarks overnight to record levels. Japanese shares were particularly weighed down by a diplomatic split with China that resulted in Beijing banning the export of certain goods which can be used to military purposes. This move was deemed "unacceptable" by Tokyo. There's more to life than sabre rattling. This week's main economic event is the release of key U.S. unemployment data on Friday. These numbers will provide hints about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The markets are pricing in at least two rate cuts for this year. As a precursor, the Job Openings?and Labor Turnover Survey(JOLTS) and ADP private payrolls are released on Wednesday. The following developments could have a significant impact on the markets on Wednesday:
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Gold falls from its 1-week high due to profit-booking and dollar strength
The gold price fell on Wednesday, as investors booked profits after the prices briefly rose to a?one-week high in earlier trade. A stronger dollar was weighing on sentiment throughout the precious metals sector ahead of important U.S. employment data this week. As of 0330 GMT, spot gold was down 0.7% at $4,466.19 an ounce. Bullion reached a record-high of $4,496.71 on December 26. U.S. gold futures for February delivery fell 0.4% to $4,477.30. GoldSilver Central's managing director,?Brian Lan, said: "Precious Metals have increased (quickly this week) and there is a little profit-taking... The dollar has also pushed prices up." The dollar fluctuated in a narrow range and was near its two-week high, ahead of an avalanche of?U.S. The dollar is now more expensive to other currency holders due to the economic data. Investors are expecting 'at least two rate cuts' by the Fed in this year. They will be looking at non-farm payrolls due on Friday to get more information. JOLTS and ADP private pay data due on Wednesday could also influence the market. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran's term ends this month. He said that aggressive interest rate reductions are necessary to keep the U.S. economy moving forward. In times of low interest rates, and geopolitical and economic uncertainty, non-yielding investments tend to perform well. Donald Trump, the president of the United States said that Caracas, Washington and other countries had reached an agreement to export Venezuelan crude worth up to $2 billion to the United States. This would divert Chinese supplies following what Venezuelan officials have called a kidnapping by former President Nicolas Maduro. Spot silver fell 1.2%, to $80.34 an ounce. This is down from $83.62 per ounce on December 29, a record high. The spot platinum price fell 2.9%, to $2,373.0 an ounce. This is a decline from the record high of $2,478.50 on Monday. It had gained over 3% in the earlier session. Palladium was 2.5% lower, at $1.777.22 an ounce. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich in Bengaluru, Ronojoy Mazumdar, and Ishaan arora from Bengaluru)
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Nickel prices remain high despite copper nearing record levels
Nickel remained near multimonth highs after a record rally on Wednesday, as expectations of tighter supplies from the top producer - Indonesia - kept nickel near its previous record. As of 0315 GMT the most traded copper contract on Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.45% to 103,760 Yuan ($14.854.69) per metric ton, just below a record 105,500 Yuan. The benchmark copper for three months on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.49%, to $13,173.50 per ton after reaching an all-time record of $13,387.50 Tuesday. Citi analysts raised their near-term copper target price to $14,000 per ton on February 2, citing strong market movement that exceeded both their baseline and bullish case forecast?in their December projection. The bank's 2026 average forecast remained at $13,000. Citi analysts believe that January 2026 could be the year's peak in copper prices. Without new market catalysts, they expect prices to decline to a sustainable level of $13,000. Nickel prices rose as the Indonesian Government slashed its mining quota of?2026 for the metal in an effort to increase the price. Shanghai nickel rose 7.3% to 146,770 yuan per ton after rising by?8%, to its highest level since June 2024, at 147720 yuan. London nickel fell 0.29%, to $18,470 per ton after reaching its highest level since June 2024 at $18,785 on Tuesday. Sucden Financial analysts cited weaker fundamentals as a reason for the metal's gains being "more susceptible to short-term profit taking". Shanghai tin gained 5.55%, while London benchmark? jumped by 2.04%. Investors are also assessing this month's Federal Reserve interest rate path as policymakers try to balance risks associated with inflation and the job market. Fed Governor Stephen Miran whose term ends in a month said on Tuesday the interest rates were?overly restricting and that cuts of over 100 basis points would be needed to support growth this year. The U.S. attack on Venezuela, and the capture President Nicolas Maduro remained a focal point. Aluminium, zinc and lead are also among the SHFE base metals that have seen gains. Wednesday, January 7 DATA/EVENTS (GMT) 0855 Germany Unemployment Chg SA Dec 0855 Germany Unemployment rate SA Dec 0930 UK S&P GLOBAL PMI: MSC COMPOSITE - OUTPUT DEC 1000 EU HCIP Flash YY DEC 1000 EU HICP-X F,E,A&T Flash YY DeC 1000 EU HCIP X F, E, A, T FLASH MM DEC 1500 US Factory Orders Wednesday, January 7, DATA/EVENTS: 0855 Germany Unemployment Rate SA Dec 0855 Germany Unemployment Change SA Dec 0930 UK S&P GLOBALPMI: MSC Composite - Output Dec 1000 EU HICP X F,E,A&T YY December 1000 EU HCIP X F,E A&T Flash YY De 1000 EU HCIP X F,E A&T Flash MM Dec 1600 US Factory Orders MM October 1500 US ISM
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Iron ore prices reach a multi-month high after China pledges to ease monetary policy
Iron ore futures rose on Wednesday, reaching their highest level in a number of months. This was boosted by the hope that demand would improve?in China's top consumer following Beijing's promise to ease monetary policy. The May contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed morning trade at 823.5 Yuan ($117.90), its highest level since July 23. As of 0322 GMT, the benchmark for February iron ore at the 'Singapore Exchange' was $108.25 per ton. It had previously reached its highest level since February 24, at $108.6. China's central banks said on Tuesday it will cut interest rates and reserve requirements in 2026, to maintain ample liquidity and to continue implementing a loose monetary policy. Analysts said that the expectation of rate reductions by Beijing in the coming months has boosted the sentiment on the ferrous metal market and led to a price rally across the board. The Chinese steel mills, which have a low in-plant stock of steelmaking ingredients, were also expected to restock in large numbers in anticipation of the Lunar New Year celebrations in February. Coking coal and coke, the other steelmaking ingredients, also grew, by 7.98% each. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have gained some ground. Rebar grew by 2.26%. Hot-rolled coils gained 1.94%. Wire rod rose 1.12%. Stainless steel increased 4.39%. ($1 = 6.9850 Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala; Amy Lv and Ruth Chai)
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Yemen's STC leader al-Zubaidi flees, Saudi-backed coalition says
Aidarous al Zubiaidi, leader of Yemen's Southern Transitional Council, did not board the plane that was supposed to take him to Riyadh and instead fled to an unknown destination. The Saudi-backed coalition said this on Wednesday. The remarks were made amid efforts to stop fighting between the STC - backed by United Arab Emirates - and Yemen's internationally recognised Saudi government. This has caused a major dispute between the Gulf allies. Zubaidi had planned to visit Saudi Arabia just days after the Yemeni government claimed it asked Riyadh for a forum to discuss southern issues. Turki Al-Maliki, spokesperson for the coalition, said in a'statement that a flight with a number of senior leaders of the separatist movement left after a delay of more than three hours, without Zubaidi and no information as to his location. Maliki said that during the delay, "information was available which indicated he had mobilised large forces", citing "calls to mobilise and the movement and equipping of factions with medium and light weapons". The dispute between the UAE and Saudi Arabia has fractured the coalition that was originally formed to combat the Iran-aligned Houthis who remain the dominant military force in Yemen. In 2014, the Houthis seized control of Yemen's capital city of?Sanaa. Gulf countries intervened in support of internationally recognised government the following year. Yemen was split into two rival zones of authority. After monitoring the movements of armed troops who had left their camp, the coalition also said that it conducted limited pre-emptive strikes in Yemen's south province of al-Dhalea. Sources within the STC and domestic sources reported that there were more than 15 strikes taking place in the province of Zubaidi. Enas Alashray, Christian Schmollinger, and Clarence Fernandez edited the report.
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Oil drops after Trump says Venezuelan oil will be sent to United States
Oil prices fell on Wednesday, after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that Venezuela would "turn over" between 30 and 50 million barrels sanctioned oil from the United States. U.S. West Texas?Intermediate Crude (WTI), fell by 78 cents or 1.37% to $56.35 per barrel at 0200 GMT. Brent crude futures dropped by 61 cents or 1% to $60.09 per barrel. The market has weighed the expectations that global crude supply will be ample this year with the uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan crude production after the U.S. captured the country's president, Nicolas Maduro. "This Oil will Be Sold at Market Price.?And that Money Will Be Controlled By Me, As President of the United States of America. To Ensure It Is Used For The Benefit Of The?People of Venezuela and United States!" Trump made the statement in a post on social media Tuesday. Tina Teng said that Trump's tweet shows he prefers to increase supply over limit it. This is a concern about the global market being oversupplied. Two sources said earlier Tuesday that the deal Caracas reached with Washington could require a first reallocation of?cargoes originally destined for China. Venezuela is selling its Merey crude at around $22 below Brent per barrel for delivery at Venezuelan ports. This deal could be worth up to $1.9 Billion. Chevron, PDVSA’s main joint-venture partner, controls the flow of oil under an American authorisation. Chevron is the only company to have been able to load and ship crude oil from Venezuela without interruption in the last few weeks, despite the blockade. Analyst at Haitong Futures, Yang An, said that Venezuela's oil exports into the United States have disrupted first the U.S. markets, and will also increase the global oversupply. Haitong Futures stated in a recent report that complex geopolitical changes captured the attention of many in early 2018. This led to many overlooking?weaknesses in the physical crude market due to oversupply. Haitong Futures said that Middle Eastern crude oil prices continue to decline, and have become the weakest segment of cross-regional pricing. This has dampened investor's willingness to chase gains. Morgan Stanley analysts predicted that the oil market would reach a surplus as high as 3,000,000 barrels per day during the first half 2026. This was based on the weak growth?in the demand of last year, and the rising supply of OPEC and Non-OPEC producers. Market sources cited American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday to say that U.S. crude oil inventories dropped last week, while fuel stock rose. API figures show a decline of 2.77 million barrels in U.S. crude stock. The official U.S. Government statistics on the country’s oil inventory are due on Wednesday at 10:30 am EST (1530 GMT). Eight analysts polled ahead of the report estimated that crude inventories increased by an average of about 500,000 barrels during the week ending January 2nd.
Kashkari, Fed's Kashkari, says that the oil price is the main risk for Venezuela to US economic growth, but they haven't seen it yet.
Neel Kahkari, Minneapolis Federal Reserve president, said that the main threat to the U.S. economic system from the Trump administration's capture over the weekend of Venezuela's President would be a rise in oil prices. However, this does not seem to have happened yet.
Kashkari stated in an interview with CNBC that the risk comes "mostly from?oil price fluctuations". "When 'Russia' invaded Ukraine it sent a commodity shiver all over the world. Hamas's attack on Israel was not the same. The U.S., Venezuela and other countries are not involved in this conflict. "But that is the mechanism which... directly affects the US."
He added, "I haven't seen it yet."
U.S. Special Forces captured Venezuela's longtime leader, Nicolas Maduro and brought him to New York, where he will face drug trafficking allegations.
Commodity markets and financial assets have so far only responded modestly to this unexpected development. U.S. light, sweet crude oil prices were 1% higher on Monday but not much above the five-year lows reached in December. (Reporting by Dan Burns, Editing by ChizuNomiyama)
(source: Reuters)