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Iron ore is a robust alternative to China's soft steel: Russell
In August, the gap between China's steel industry and its appetite for iron ore imports widened. This highlights the difference between hope and reality. China, which produces just over half the world's steel, saw its output fall for a third consecutive month in August, to 77.37 millions metric tons. The month was the weakest since December and was down by 0.7% compared to August and 2.9% compared to the 79.66 millions tons recorded in July. The steel output in the first eight-month period was 671.81 millions tons, which is a decrease of 2.8% compared to the same period last year. Iron ore imports and prices remain robust, despite the weakness in steel. According to data released by the Chinese government last week, China imported 105.23 millions tons of seaborne iron ore in August. This was the third consecutive month that imports were above 100 million tonnes. This trend is expected to continue into September when commodity analysts Kpler predict imports of 112.2 millions tons. If achieved, this would be the highest level since December of last year. Iron ore prices have also been rising, with benchmark futures at the Singapore Exchange closing Monday at $105.50 per ton, just under the six-month peak of $106.75 reached on September 9. The front-month contract has increased 13% since its lowest point of this year, which was $93.35 per ton on July 1. The price of iron ore is rising due to the strong Chinese demand. But why are steel mills purchasing more of this key raw material when they are experiencing lower production and shrinking margins? Answer: They are still hopeful that Beijing's efforts at stimulating steel-intensive industries, such as construction will be fruitful. It is difficult to prove this, as new home prices dropped by 0.3% from August of the previous month. This is a continuation of a downward trend which began in May 2023. The number of new construction starts is also low, falling 19.5% from August 2024 to August 2018. SEPTEMBER STEEL RECYCLING The positive side is that there's optimism about the steel production in September, after the disappointing August results. Some of this was attributed to production cuts to reduce pollution before the military parade of Beijing on September 3, which marks the end of World War Two. Even if the steel production does improve in September, it is unclear how large or long-lasting this recovery will be. Beijing is thought to have an informal goal that the annual steel production be kept at the same level of around 1 billion tonnes that has prevailed over the last five years. After subtracting the total steel production for the year from 1 billion tons, there are 328 millions tons left over to use in the final four months of the calendar year. This is an average of about 82 million tonnes per month. There is room for growth in the third quarter and September. The visible inventories of iron ore and steel have increased but remain at levels which suggest that more stockpiles could be added. Stocks of steel rebar SteelHome consultants monitored the rise to 4,69 million tons during the week ending September 12. Rebar stocks tend to peak in March after a build-up over the winter months. The current level, however, is below the peak of March 2025 at 6.36 million tonnes and the 8.37 millions tons from March 2024. Iron ore stocks at China's port The week ending September 12 saw a drop to 132.6 millions tons from the 149.4 that was recorded in the same period last year. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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German engineering production will recover in 2026, according to lobby
According to the VDMA sector group, German engineering companies are expecting production to only recover slightly next year after the pounding that high costs and global uncertainty, as well as a trade conflict, will have on the level this year. VDMA says that production will only grow by 1.0% by 2026 if the major reforms promised to the German government this autumn are actually implemented. The VDMA warned that there were "considerable risks" including an intensification of the trade conflict, a rise in government debt, and punitive duties on steel and aluminum. These factors prompted the VDMA's 2025 outlook to be lowered. The German lobby is now expecting a real-terms 5% decline in production, compared to the 2% drop it forecasted earlier this year. The tariffs have had a major impact on the metals industry. Several companies stopped exporting to the United States because of the risks involved in proving the origins of steel and aluminum. Bertram Kawlath, VDMA President, said: "The EU needs to make it clear that our machines are used in American production and for export and therefore do not face punitive duties." The VDMA also called on the German Government to create a strong market in Germany, as "the wind blows ever harsher into our faces", said he. (Reporting and editing by Tom Kaeckenhoff, Miranda Murray)
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World Bank: Heatwaves cost Bangladesh $1.8 Billion last year
According to a World Bank study released on Tuesday, rising temperatures will have a significant impact on Bangladesh. Heat-related illnesses, and losses in productivity, could cost the country up to $1.78bn - or 0.4% of its GDP - by 2024. The study shows the maximum temperature in South Asia has increased by 1.1 degrees Celsius since 1980. However, the "feels-like" temperature has increased by 4.5 C. As the heat increases, so do diarrhea, respiratory issues, fatigue and mental health problems such as anxiety and depression. Women and older adults are at greater risk. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, has been ranked as one the most heat-stressed city in the world. Its heat index is rising at a rate 65% higher than the national average. According to the report, heat-related mental and physical health conditions will wipe out 25 million days of work in Bangladesh by 2024. "Extreme Heat is Not Just a Seasonal Inconvenience. Its effects are far-reaching. We see that in Bangladesh, the rising temperatures are affecting the health of the people and their productivity. By building on its climate adaptation experience and adopting a coordinated sector-wide approach, Bangladesh can mitigate the impacts of heatwaves and maintain sustainable economic growth. It is possible, as countries such as Singapore have shown. The report calls for urgent action to improve data collection, strengthen the health system, and expand green spaces in urban areas. The report calls for international funding to help Bangladesh cope with the escalating risks of climate change. (Reporting and Editing by Ros Russel)
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Nigerian troops kill 8 Islamic State fighters during Borno ambush. Military says
The military reported that eight militants from the Islamic State West Africa Province, including two senior commanders, were killed during an ambush on a major supply route in northeast Nigeria. The clash took place early Monday morning near Garin Giwa, on the Baga Cross Kauwa Road in Borno State. This area is frequently targeted by insurgents who want to disrupt military operations. ISWAP fighters tried to ambush an army patrol, but troops were able repel them. The ISWAP's senior field commander Abu Aisha was among those killed, as were Qaid of Tumbun Mota and two mid-level leaders, also known as Munzirs. According to the statement, several other militants fled with gunshot injuries. Boko Haram militants and their splinter ISWAP group have been responsible for thousands of deaths and displacements in northeast Nigeria. They also caused a humanitarian crisis by attacking security forces and civilians. (Reporting from Camillus Eboh, Abuja; writing and editing by Elisha Gbogbo)
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Strong investment demand is driving India's silver imports.
Industry officials said that India's imports of silver are expected to grow in the next few months. This is due to increased investment and industrial demand, which has already consumed the excess from last year's high shipments. The world's largest silver consumer, China, could boost global prices to the highest level since 14 years. Chirag Thakkar of Amrapali Group Gujarat (a silver importer) said at the India Gold Conference, New Delhi, that "with prices going up, the investment demand has also shot up -- nearly twice what it was before." Thakkar predicted that silver imports would increase in the next few months. The annual total is likely to range between 5,500 to 6,000 metric tonnes. After shipments had more than doubled to 7,669 tonnes in 2024, the industry expected a sharp decline in India's imports in 2025. India's imports of silver in the first eight-month period of 2025 dropped by more than half to 2,580 tonnes from 5,695 tons one year earlier, according to preliminary data released by the trade ministry. Thakkar stated that the strong demand of recent months has led to a depletion of stocks and prompted banks and dealers stepping up imports. Silver futures in India hit a new record of 129.878 Indian Rupees (1,474.75) per kilo on Tuesday. They are up almost 49% so far this year and have outpaced a 44% increase in gold prices. A Mumbai-based dealer at a private bank said that despite the price rally, Silver is still trading at a premium to official domestic rates. These include a 6% duty on imports and a 3% tax on sales. Demand from industrial users and investment firms remains high. Investors usually cash out when prices rise. This time, however, they are so confident about the future that there is hardly any scrap on the market," he said. The Association of Mutual Funds in India reported that inflows to silver exchange-traded fund reached 17.59 billion rupies in July, and 19.04 billion rupies in August. This is well above the average monthly inflows of 6.7 billion rupies in the previous fiscal year. India imports silver from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Britain, and China. $1 = 88.0680 Indian Rupees
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Copper prices are impacted by profit-taking and lack of interest from China
The price of copper fell on Tuesday, as traders reported that a lack of interest from China's leading consumer led to profit-taking. Prices had risen 15 months earlier. At 1105 GMT, the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange had fallen by 0.5% to $10,134 per metric tonne. It reached $10,192.50 per ton on Monday, the highest level since June of last year. The rapid rise of copper to $10,000 per ton this month has pushed Chinese buyers away, traders have said. The Federal Reserve will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to decide the interest rate in the United States. The expectation of a rate cut has weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar, which will make metals priced in dollars cheaper for holders of other currencies. This could increase demand. Analysts at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence said that given the high level of market consensus regarding the likelihood of a rate reduction, it's likely that investors and traders have been positioning themselves well in advance. This will dampen the immediate impact of any such mechanism. Traders reported that funds were placing bets ahead of the Fed's decision on higher copper prices and that there was a pickup in the amount of copper in storage warehouses monitored by Shanghai Futures Exchange. The Chinese demand for goods has heightened concerns. The focus is also on the zinc stocks in LME-approved warehouses The LME's total tonnage, 48,975 tonnes, has dropped by 60% since mid-July. Metal marked for delivery or cancelled warrants at 36% indicates another 17,600 tons are due to leave the LME. Low zinc stocks have fueled concerns about zinc availability on the LME and created a premium for the forward cash contract of three months. . The premium reached its highest level since October of last year. On Monday, it closed at around $27 per ton. After earlier reaching a six-month record of $2,985, three-month zinc fell 0.2% to $2,974 per ton. Other metals saw a 0.1% increase in aluminium at $2704 per ton. Lead was unchanged at $2002, while tin rose 0.5% to $34,825. Nickel retreated by 0.2% at $15,400.
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Two people are killed and two homes are set on fire in Russian attacks against Ukraine
The regional governor reported that Russian forces launched an attack on Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine's southeast city early Tuesday morning. A 41-year old man was killed, and at least 18 others were injured. Ivan Fedorov confirmed that two children had been injured. The governor posted pictures online showing firefighters fighting fires in homes and other structures. Ukraine's emergency services reported that in Zaporizhzhia a fire had spread to three residential buildings as well as a service station, covering a total area of 350 sq. m. (4,000 sq. ft). Fedorov stated that preliminary reports indicated that Russian forces have carried out 10 attacks using multiple rocket launchers, causing damage to 10 apartment buildings and twelve private homes. I heard distant explosions very far away so we went to bed. Oleksii 35, a Zaporizhzhia local, said that a powerful explosion blew our windows out. I immediately ran outside to my neighbors to put out the fire. I was worried about them." Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, said that other Ukrainian cities were also attacked by Russian troops overnight. They launched over 100 drones and 150 glide bombs. Zelenskiy reported that one person died in the southern Mykolaiv Region. According to officials in the region, two people were injured in Kharkiv city in the northeast. The Russians attacked a large retail logistics centre in central Kyiv, causing thick columns of smoke to rise into the air and firefighter's to battle the fire. Zelenskiy wrote in a blog post on the X-platform: "This is exactly the type of aerial terror that Ukraine calls for a joint defense ...,". "Now is time to implement a multilayered air defence system for the protection of the skies in Europe." Zelenskiy reported that Russia had launched over 3,500 drones in different types this month. It also fired nearly 190 missiles and more than 2,525 aerial bombs. Reporting by Sergiy Chalia in Zaporizhzhia, and Anastasiia Mlenko in Kyiv. Writing by Olena Harmasch Editing by Gareth Jones
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Dollar falls as traders bet on Fed rate cuts
Investors bought U.S. stocks futures, assuming that the Federal Reserve will likely lower rates this week. They sold equities, however, in Europe where it is less likely that borrowing costs will fall further. The MSCI all-country index rose 0.15% and reached new record highs. Meanwhile, the pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.15%. This was mainly due to the decline of rate-sensitive insurers and banks, who will lose if the European Central Bank doesn't cut euro zone interest rates any further. James Rossiter is the head of global macro-strategy at TD Securities, London. He said that markets are realizing there won't be any more cuts from the ECB. This has a negative impact on expectations for Fed to resume its easing policy. The markets are now pricing just a 40% probability of an ECB cut by 25 bps in June 2026, down from 50% last week. STOCKS SCALE NEW HEIGHTS Stocks have reached new highs in Wall Street due to the expectation of an imminent Fed rate cut. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures are both unchanged after both indices reached all-time highs during Monday's trading. Futures have already priced in 127 bps of Fed cut by July 2026. This means that policymakers will need to work hard to maintain investor confidence. There do appear to be quite some rate cuts already priced in. "On balance, that might suggest that the bar for an unexpected hawkish move is lower than for one that's dovish," said Thomas Mathews. The Fed is likely to stick to its cautious approach in communicating and will not reveal much. The markets reacted little to the news that Stephen Miran was narrowly confirmed to the Board of Governors of the U.S. central bank by the U.S. Senate, and a U.S. court of appeals denied President Donald Trump the right to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Both moves are unlikely to have a significant impact on the Fed's Wednesday decision, as a 25 basis-point reduction is already fully priced. The Bank of Canada, in an eventful week, is expected to also cut rates this week by a quarter-point, while both the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England, are expected to keep rates the same. U.S. officials and Chinese officials announced on Monday that they had reached a framework deal to transfer the short-video app TikTok under U.S. control. This agreement will be confirmed during a call between Trump's and Xi Jinping's Friday. The MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan, which is the most widely followed index in Asia, rose to its highest level for more than four years on Tuesday. Its last trade was 0.03% higher. Japan's Nikkei index and Topix index also set new records. The Dollar: Pressure on the Dollar Fed's decision to cut bets has kept the pressure on the dollar which, on Tuesday, fell to its lowest level since July 4, against a basket currency. The euro, which has been at its highest level since July 2, also reached its highest point at $1.1795. The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds were relatively unchanged after falling the previous session. The two-year yield was the last to be at 3,5345%. The benchmark 10-year rate was nearly unchanged at 4.0317%. Oil prices in commodities reversed their course after having increased from the previous session as investors assessed impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries. Brent crude futures dropped 0.37%, to $67.19 a barrel. U.S. crude was 0.23% less at $63.07 per barrel. The spot gold price reached a record high of $3697.05 per ounce. This was boosted by the weaker dollar, and by expectations of a Fed rate reduction.
The Azerbaijani finance ministry expects GDP to grow by 2.9% in 2026.
The Finance Ministry predicted that Azerbaijan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by 2.9% between 2026 and 2027, a slight drop from the growth of 3% expected for this year.
If the rate of GDP growth continues at this pace, it will also be below the Finance Ministry’s forecasted average annual growth of 3.5% over 2026-2029.
Azerbaijan expects a budget gap of 2,3% of GDP or approximately 3,125 billion manats next year. Revenues are forecast to increase by 0.2% compared to 2025 forecasts and expenditures by 0.3% to 41.548 trillion manats.
According to the ministry, this slight decline comes at a time when the oil and gas industry is expected to shrink by 2.4% by 2026. This will be an acceleration from the 0.2% drop set for 2025. This will be offset by a 4.9% increase in the non-oil & gas sector.
Azerbaijan is a major oil and gas exporter. It has set the projected price of oil for its 2026 budget at $65 a barrel. This is down from $70 in 2025.
The Finance Ministry said that by 2025 the total debt of the state is expected to reach 25.4 billion manats or 19.6% GDP. $1 = 1.7 manats (Reporting and writing by Nailia bagirova, Robert Harvey and Gleb Stolyarov; editing by Mark Trevelyan).
(source: Reuters)