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MORNING BID EUROPE - Chip rout moves to pAnIc territories
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets The rout of chip stocks did not ease investor 'fears about AI risks despite the 'blockbuster earnings SK Hynix reported. This set a'stage for this week’s results from Big Tech companies. SK 'Hynix's 'April-June' operating profit soared by more than sixfold (557%) yet it still missed analysts' high estimates. This coincided with investors' concerns about the sustainability and long-term return of chip demand. The earnings of Microsoft and Meta, two members of the "Magnificent 7", later in the day will be an important test for the AI trade which has shaped the global markets. Alphabet spooked last week's investors with their negative cash flow reports. They highlighted the tug of war between the need to invest a lot in AI infrastructure, and the need for a steady cash flow. South Korea's KOSPI fell 12%, prompting a 20-minute trading stop, which is becoming more common. This follows a 10% drop in the previous session. The index is still the best performing in the world this year, but it is facing a decline of 35% in July. This is its worst performance month. Oil prices also jumped in other markets after the U.S. Central Command announced the interception by the U.S. of Iranian ballistic missiles. This shattered the calm that had prevailed over the last few days. The fear of inflation and a declining oil supply weighed heavily on the mood ahead of an important U.S. Federal Reserve decision. Investors have?priced in a 'one-out-of three chance of a rate hike. Policymakers are increasingly vocal about their concerns over inflation. Market participants still expect the central bank to remain steadfast. All eyes will be on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments and any hints he may give about rates. The earnings report in Europe will provide clarity as to the state of the corporate health, while the war in the Middle East is not likely to end anytime soon. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday. * Earnings of Danone, Hermes L'Oreal UBS Airbus Meta Microsoft Qualcomm * Fed policy decision by Ankur Banerjee (Singapore; edited by Christopher Cushing).
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SAIL and Krakatau Steel to invest $350 Million in stainless steel plant
Two Indian sources said this week that India's state run Steel Authority of India (SAIL) and Indonesia's Krakatau Steel are planning to invest up to $350 million into a'stainless-steel slab plant' in Indonesia. Sources said that the plant is expected to become operational in the next 3 to 4 years. SAIL and Krakatau Steel have signed a preliminary joint venture agreement in Indonesia to produce stainless steel plates during the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Sources said that SAIL will'send a technical team next month to Indonesia to prepare a feasibility study. After this, the two companies will finalise details such as the equity structure, timelines for government approvals, and other details. Sources declined to identify themselves because the discussions aren't public. SAIL didn't respond to an email sent Monday asking for comment. Krakatau Steel failed to respond to an email?requesting comment made on Tuesday. Sources said that the capacity of the?proposed plant could be increased after it becomes operational. One source said that SAIL would consume the entire production of the planned Indonesian plant and bring the stainless-steel slabs to Salem for rolling and finishing. Salem is located in Tamil Nadu, a southern Indian state. Sources said that the state-run steelmaker would?primarily supply finished products to Indian clients, while a smaller percentage may be exported to Middle East and Europe. According to commodities consultancy BigMint, SAIL was India's third largest steel producer during the fiscal year ending March 2025. It had a 10.1% share of the domestic market. India, which is the second largest producer of crude steel in the world after China, has identified Indonesia as well as more than a dozen countries to cooperate with the steel industry. The goal?to boost exports and secure raw materials? Data from BigMint showed that the consumption of finished steel in India has increased by 55% in the last five years. This is more than the production increase, which was only?42%. Indian steelmakers are turning to the domestic market to offset lower exports due to tighter imports from Europe and Britain, but Chinese steel is sabotaging that strategy. (Reporting from New Delhi by Neha Arora; Additional reporting in Jakarta by Fransiska Nanangoy; Editing and Mayank Bhardwaj by Christian Schmollinger).
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EU: Wildfire response needs to evolve in line with climate change
As the climate changes and wildfires become more common, the European Union needs to increase funding and focus on forest management, and educate people about the risks of fires. This is what the head for crisis response at the EU said as France and Spain battle deadly fires. Tens of thousands have been forced to evacuate in France and Spain due to wildfires. The region has already suffered from a scorching hot and dry summer. Climate change is increasing. Hadja Lahbib is the EU Crisis Management Commissioner. "We must be prepared for disasters before they happen, and not just react after." Lahbib stated that it is not enough for countries to purchase more firefighting gear. They should also invest more of their EU funds in forest management practices to reduce wildfire risks, as well as better educate the citizens about "what behavior they absolutely must avoid" to reduce fire risk. Wildfires can be started by humans in 90% of cases. THREAT MEANS? STRENGTHENING CAPACITY IS REQUIRED The EU's role in wildfire management is limited. This responsibility lies with the national governments. Brussels coordinates the deployment extra resources from European countries when a country asks for emergency assistance. The EU has its own reserve fleet, "RescEU", consisting of 22 firefighting planes and five helicopters. These aircraft are contracted by its member states. The EU coordinated the deployment of 7 planes, 4 helicopters, and 3 ground firefighting teams in Spain and France as of Tuesday. Climate change increases the demand on 'the system. The EU has stationed a record-breaking number of firefighters in at-risk countries ahead of this summer. EU officials said that they are preparing to have fires still burning in November of this year. Lahbib stated that "the?scale and severity of these disasters means we will need confirm strengthening our collective capability," adding that the Commission has?proposed to more than double crisis-response financing in?the upcoming EU budget to EUR10,7 billion. The latest compromise proposal from the EU countries shows that they have reduced this figure to EUR9.1 Billion. The EU will also be purchasing its own permanent fleet of firefighting aircraft, including 12 Canadair firefighting airplanes and five helicopters, which are due for delivery between 2027-2030. (Reporting and editing by Alison Williams; Kate Abnett)
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Copper prices fall ahead of Fed rate announcement
Copper fell on Wednesday as a result of demand?worries, and a strong dollar in the run-up to the conclusion of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. The benchmark three-month copper price?on London Metal Exchange?dropped 0.28% at $13,647 per metric ton as of 0300 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract was down 0.21% at 104 830 yuan per ton ($15,480.83). Market pricing for a rate hike has increased in the last week. The Fed will conclude its two-day meeting on Wednesday. According to CME's FedWatch, interest rate traders have priced in a 70% probability that rates will remain unchanged. Daniel Hynes is a senior commodity strategist at ANZ. He said in a note that investors [in 'copper] remained worried about a tighter monetary policies. By reducing economic activity, high interest rates can affect the demand for commodities that are dependent on growth like copper. The dollar has also been supported by rate expectations, which makes commodities priced in greenbacks more expensive for buyers who use other currencies. Other stumbling AI stock have hit expectations of copper demand. Hynes added that "Sentiment was also affected by the drop in AI stocks." This week, shares in Asian 'chipmakers', who were among this year’s big winners from the AI-driven rally, have been slashed amid concerns about valuations before crucial earnings by big tech companies. Copper's value was boosted due to the AI infrastructure construction, for which it is a vital commodity. Aluminium gained 0.43% among other LME metals. Zinc dipped by 0.06%. Lead dipped by 0.26%. Nickel gained 0.77%. Tin gained 1.3%. On the SHFE, elsewhere, aluminium rose 0.95%. Zinc fell 0.22%. Nickel dipped 0.14 %. Lead increased 0.32%. Tin gained 0.66%. $1 = 6.7716 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar).
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Sources: Commodity trader IXM expands its portfolio into iron ore
Three people familiar with the matter have confirmed that global commodity trader IXM has expanded its portfolio to include iron ore. This is despite the fact that the near-record low price volatility of the steelmaking ingredient reduces profit opportunities and dampens investor interest. IXM in Geneva, one of the largest traders of non-ferrous physical metals like?copper or nickel?, signed last week a prepayment agreement with Brazilian miner Itaminas, to lock-in supply. One of the sources, who asked to remain anonymous because they weren't authorised to talk to the media about the matter, confirmed this. The terms of the agreement were not immediately known. IXM, and its Chinese parent CMOC Group, did not reply to inquiries about timing or reasons. Itaminas refused to comment on any commercial issues. Iron ore prices have become less volatile in the past four year on the $132 billion Chinese market, the largest buyer and consumer. The state buyer, China Mineral Resources Group, has been buying iron ore for an increasing number?of steel mills. This has helped to reduce volatility. IXM’s website shows that its trading portfolio includes cobalt and nickel. It also has gold, copper and lead. IXM began trading iron ore in this month's report, according to a second source. Phadke's LinkedIn page showed that the company had appointed Saurabh Phadke to lead iron ore from July. Phadke could not be reached to comment. He traded iron ore for Trafigura and then joined IXM as the non-ferrous concentrats desk in 2023. IXM researcher Li Yi also spoke this month at a webinar hosted by brokerage Xinhua Futures about ferrous?market basics. Data from Wenhua Caijing showed that the iron ore volatility index trended downwards to a low of?17.99 in July '28 after peaking at 78.97 in March 10 2022. Data showed that the figure has been below?20 since most of the year and is just above the record low of 11.84? on December 9, 2019. Unidentified Singaporean asset manager said that the reduced volatility led him to reduce the iron ore share in his portfolio from 90% to 50% this year, and to favor metals such as aluminium and copper, which are crucial for energy transition. Reporting by Amy Lv, Tom Daly and Christopher Cushing; Editing by Tony Munroe & Christopher Cushing
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US claims to have intercepted Iranian missiles that were launched at US forces in the Middle East
Washington said that the U.S. military intercepted multiple missiles fired by Iran at U.S. forces based in the Middle East on Tuesday, in what Washington called "a surprise attack" by Tehran. The U.S. Central Command statement did not specify the exact location that it claimed Iran tried to target. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said later that they fired several missiles in response to U.S. action against Iranian interests. Axios had reported earlier, citing an official from the United States, that Iran "had launched ballistic rockets towards a U.S. military base in Jordan, and the missiles have been intercepted." The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched multiple ballistic missiles in Iran as part of a surprise attack against U.S. troops in the Middle East. Central Command announced on X that all Iranian?missiles had been successfully intercepted. Donald Trump, the president of the United States who abruptly halted a two-week U.S. The bombing campaign against Iran was halted over the weekend. President Donald Trump said that "good talks" were underway with Tehran, but threatened to resume strikes if negotiations failed. Iran denies that it wants to resume negotiations with Washington. Later, the U.S. military stated that the Central Command of the United States and Saudi Arabian armed forces had conducted attacks in Iraq against what they called "U.S. The U.S. military said that the attacks were on sites where Iran-backed militants were directing their attack against American forces and Saudi energy facilities. Washington announced that U.S. fighter aircraft and Saudi fighter planes had struck the logistics and weapons sites of these groups in eastern Iraq. It urged Iran and its proxies to stop "these attacks" to avoid a further U.S. response. Saudi Arabia confirmed that the attacks in Iraq were coordinated, as it claimed, with?the Central Command. Saudi Arabia said that it would not seek to escalate the situation, but will respond to "aggression." Riyadh framed the strikes as an answer to drone attacks against oil facilities. The Iran War began on February 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched an attack against Iran. Tehran responded with its own attacks on Israel and Gulf States that host U.S. base. Since then, U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran as well as Israeli attacks on Lebanon has killed thousands of people and displaced millions. (Reporting and editing by Kanishka Sing; Ismail Shakil, Chris Reese).
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Petrobras reduces imports and focuses on local production amid U.S. Iran conflict
?Brazil’s state-run petroleum firm Petrobras reduced imports of oil-derived products to 67,000 barrels a day (bpd), in the'second quarter, as it pushed refineries 'to -their -limits amid the U.S./Israel conflict with Iran. Its operational results were released on Tuesday. Petrobras reported that imports of liquefied gas (LNG), and diesel, had fallen by 85% and 42% respectively, compared to a year ago. This was the quarter with the lowest volume of derivatives imported by the company. Petrobras refineries averaged a 102.5% increase in capacity over their nominal capacity between April and May. This reduced the need for imports at a time when prices were high because of the Strait of Hormuz closure. The firm stated that "in the current geopolitical environment, high utilization of refining capacity is crucial for increasing the supply on the domestic market." The state-run company is concerned about the price of diesel and LNG. Brazil's government has approved fuel subsidies, and is pushing for prices to stay low in an election year. Exports of oil and derivatives increased by 41%, despite a decline in imports. Petrobras reported that China received 35% of its oil exports, down from 51% a year earlier, because the Asian nation also "sought to reduce imports" due to the higher prices. The firm said that the higher exports to India and Europe, as well as other Asian countries, offset the lower sales to China. According to the firm's quarterly report on sales and output, Petrobras local oil and LNG production increased by 15%, to 2,69 million barrels per day. Total output, including natural gas and overseas operations, increased by 14%, to 3,34 million barrels equivalents per day. Petrobras stated that the increase in output was boosted by the ramping up of the floating production storage offloading units Maria Quiteria and Alexandre de Gusmao, as well as?the start-up of the P79 unit. The firm reported that local sales of?oil and gas derivatives increased by almost 12% to 3,33 million bpd. Petrobras will release its financial results on August 6. Reporting by Fabio Téixeira, Marta Nogueira, and Andre Romani, in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, respectively; editing by Chris Reese and Natalia Siniawski, Cynthia Osteri, and Cynthia Osteri
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Rio Tinto reports highest first-half profit in four years due to copper strength
Rio Tinto posted on Wednesday its highest underlying half-year earnings in four years. A surge in profits in its copper division, and higher commodity price more than offset the softer earnings of iron ore. The world's biggest iron ore producer announced?underlying earnings? of $6.85billion for the six-month period ended June 30. This is up 43% from $4.81billion a year ago and in line with Visible Alpha's consensus estimate?of $6.80billion. The copper division's EBITDA grew by 84% to $5.7 billion, largely due to a?higher production from its Mongolian operations. Iron ore remains the largest contributor to earnings for the group, generating a underlying EBITDA $6.8 billion. This is down 1% compared to a year ago. The company announced its highest quarterly dividend in four-years at $2.11, up from $1.48 a year earlier. Anglo-Australian Mines kept unchanged its production and sales projections for 2026. Rio stated that it was on track to "unlock" $5 to $10 billion in cash through portfolio management and infrastructure initiatives. Opportunities to release $5 billion by 2026 are already being pursued. The company has maintained its goal to reduce Scope '1 and 2 emissions from 2018 levels by 50% by 2030. However, it warned that the achievement of 'the goal depends on a timely delivery of renewable energy projects by third parties and commercial agreements which cannot be guaranteed.
Hold off Sparks, Liberty shoots the lights out
Breanna Stewart, who scored 29 of her total game points in the second period, also came away with an?important steal at the end to help the visiting New York Liberty defeat the Los Angeles Sparks 113-109 on Tuesday.
Los Angeles (16-12) took advantage of a New York (16-12), which had a run of?20-4 midway through the second quarter. The lead lasted for most the third period. Sabrina Ionescu's 27 points, and her 21 points in each of the previous six games, helped the Liberty to never fall behind by more than nine points.
New York was able to take control of the game by going on a 23-8 run that spanned both the third and the fourth quarters. Stewart was the driving force behind the crucial spurt that included a game-winning basket right before the end of the third quarter.
The Sparks (10-17), which suffered their sixth consecutive loss, scored seven points in 51 seconds in the final quarter to reduce an 11-point gap to four. Los Angeles had the chance to close the gap on New York by one possession after Ionescu's traveling call. But Stewart's fourth theft of the evening gave New York back the ball.
Stewart's last assist went to Rebecca Allen who nailed a 3-pointer, effectively putting the game out of reach for the Liberty. Allen's bucket was the final shot in a 17-of-32 (53.1%) performance from New York's deep range, which included Ionescu's 5-of-9 effort from beyond the arc.
Han Xu, Mariane Fauthoux and Rebekah Gardner each scored 13 points after coming off the bench. Rebekah Garden, who scored?15 with two 3-pointers, came off the bench and made two 3-pointers.
Los Angeles also shot well beyond the arc, with Nneka?Ogwumike making a pair late triples that helped the Sparks get within three points of the lead in the final minutes. Rae Burrell hit 4-of-8 three-pointers to score a team high 24 points. Erica Wheeler (17) also went 4-of-5 beyond the arc. Los Angeles shot 16-of-30 (51.6%) from outside the arc.
Ariel Atkins and Dearica Hamby each scored 12 points for the Sparks. Cameron Brink, who came off the bench to score 11, was able to reach double figures in four of her last six games.
Field Level Media
(source: Reuters)