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Goldman Sachs predicts a slightly higher oil surplus in 2026

Goldman Sachs forecasted a slight increase in oil surplus by 2026 as improvements in supply in the Americas will outweigh Russia’s downgrade, and any improvement in global demand.

The U.S. Investment Bank kept its Brent/WTI 2025 price forecasts unchanged and projected averages for 2026 at $56/$52 per barrel. "Risks in our 2025-2026 forecast are both upside and downside, but slightly skewed to the top," it said.

OPEC+ - which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and other allies - agreed on Sunday that oil production would be increased from October, as Saudi Arabia, its leader, tries to regain the market share.

Goldman Sachs stated that the decision of the bloc to begin gradually unwinding its 1,65 million barrels a day (mb/d), cuts is likely due in large part to low commercial stock levels within OECD countries.

The group added that "while a complete 1,65 mb/d dewind is plausible," we assumed the group would use its flexibility to pause quotas increases in January 2026, based on our assumption that OECD Commercial Stocks start increasing noticeably by 2025 Q4.

We assume that OECD commercial stock builds will be slightly faster in Q4 of 2025 and Q4 of 2026, even though we have revised up our surplus for 2026 to 1.9 mb/d from 1.7 mb/d previously. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Nady and Christopher Cushing in Bengaluru)

(source: Reuters)